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Better money sooner for Sun City sellers

Category: Sun City Real Estate (page 3 of 9)

May 12, 2024

My listing-price cautionary tale in three listings…

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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Three closed sales, all the same floor plan, all dowdy/dated but turnkey livable:

Primus: Listed at an almost-wise price on the Wednesday before Christmas, sold for list by New Year’s day.

Secundus: Listed at a sleazy price and closed for less money in 34 DOM.

Tertius: Listed sleazy and insanely high, many price drops, mostly sleazy, finally sold at what we can readily see is the market price – in 210 Days on Market.

If you price to market using a number that looks wise to the buyer, you should sell immediately. If you ‘test the market’ – or worse, try to ‘beat the market’ – the market will be happy to correct your error. Eventually.

There are currently three active listings in that floorplan, again all stone comps to each other and to the solds: $314,900, $328,000, $355,000. Guess how they’re doing. Guess where they will sell – if they do.

May 11, 2024

What’s even worse than listing at an unwise price? Listing at an unwise price on the wrong day.

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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It’s Saturday as I write this. There were 15 new listings in my little farm yesterday. Only two have wise prices, with the rest being either stupid or sleazy.

What’s worse is that these homes were listed on Friday, AFTER Saturday’s showing tours were already planned. The email from ARMLS or Zillow or wherever that celebrates these brand new listings will go unread, as buyers and agents rush around getting ready for the work they already have planned.

Sun City is special in that more buyers might be looking at homes on weekdays, but most buyers do not live here already, and they and their buyer’s agents do their real estate shopping on the weekends, just like everyone else.

Listing – or doing price reductions, if you must – on days when buyers are not shopping listings is an unforced error that abets the process of selling slow and low.

May 10, 2024

From Rainier to Ranchero: Shopping other expressions of our Sun City floorplan.

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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We live in a modified Rainier. Our Del Webb floorplan is already-here news, meaningless to people moving to Sun City, yet you see models name-checked in listing after listing.

Even so, if you know you know, and the Rainier is a very livable three-bedroom footprint: The kitchen is up front, looking out to the street; if you blow out its interior walls, together with the living room it blooms into a greatroom, so the family is always together.

I’ve been taking my wife around to look at vacant Rainiers. It’s like a date, but during the day and with an MLS key. There are a lot near us, in Unit 11, but few-to-none in other parts of Phase Two. But there is a nearly-identical floorplan in Phase One called the Ranchero – 1,679sf versus the Rainier’s 1,699sf, and you’d need a tape rule to find the differences.

We went to look at one today. Very much unmodified, and largely unadapted from 1968, when it was built. But it’s turnkey livable as-is and priced aggressively for its size. Upgraded before move-in or a room at a time afterward, it’s a smokin’ deal – especially if you make the wise-price offer. 😉

May 10, 2024

Better money is more than just more money – it’s more-secure money.

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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I like to say ‘better money sooner’, but that’s just a recapitulation of the core idea of my listing praxis: Highest, safest, soonest. We’re looking for the highest attainable return in a reasonable span of time.

‘Attainable’ means two things: We want the highest price a real buyer is willing to pay, rather than what we might wish we could get, instead. And we want for that buyer to actually be able to pay that promised sum on time – ideally without the seller’s help.

So an FHA offer at 105% of list, with 3% coming back to the buyer in seller-paid concessions, is sub-optimal, even though the top-line number is bigger. The house still has to appraise – and it won’t, not above market value – and you already know your buyers have no cash to spare to make up the difference. Not only won’t you be getting the bigger number, there’s a good chance the buyer will be unable to perform at COE – putting you back on the market, wiser but shop-worn.

On the other hand, all cash at 98% of list can be worth considering. ‘Cash is King’, so it expects a discount. That lousy FHA offer can be useful to get the buyer to 100% or above, but with no or few contingencies and a quick closing, cash is typically better money: Not higher, necessarily, but much safer and much sooner.

The hierarchy of real estate funding looks like this:

• Cash
• Conventional
• FHA/VA, etc.
• Other

Cash is King – very safe, very soon – but a strong conventional borrower who is desperate to possess the house is likely to be both higher and safer (less likely to cancel) than a cash buyer.

VA borrowers can be very strong, financially, but VA loans can take a while to close and they require the seller to pay a significant portion of the buyer’s transaction costs. FHA borrowers are very often weak on credit, cash-on-hand and cash reserves. The offer that seeks a seller concession on the way in may need even more seller-paid funding to make it to the finish line. VA is less soon, FHA less safe.

As for the ‘other’ category – seller carrybacks, hard-money loans, etc. – if we are even talking about them for a Sun City home, something has gone terribly wrong with the property’s marketing.

How do I know that’s so? Because if a house is listed properly – priced to market and promoted irresistibly – it should attract cash and strong conventional offers immediately. It it doesn’t, the price is wrong. If the offers that come in eventually are all crazy government loans – over list but with countervailing concessions – the buyers want the seller to cover their shortfalls. And if the seller waits for months and then finally gets an offer with ‘creative’ financing…

Art elicits a response. A brand new real estate listing succeeds when that home’s eventual buyer says, “Hot dang! Must lock down immediately, before anyone else gets it.” The safest buyer, by far, is the one who wants it more. But if the listing doesn’t surface that buyer, plus others less frenzied – right away, in the first few Days on Market – then it has failed.

But, listed right, your house should attract one or more cash or strong conventional offers at or near full price. Play your cards right, and you could Close above list in ten days – so get packin’! And that is better money sooner.

April 26, 2024

Counter-marketing Cartman: How buyers can put the squeeze on sleazy and stupid pricing strategies.

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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The list price is the most important field in an MLS listing. Everything counts, but if the price is wrong, every other effort will have been wasted. If the price overshoots the market, you risk losing potential buyers to better-priced homes. But, just as important, if the format of your price is wrong, you will at a minimum introduce confusion – and delay – that you cannot afford.

Ignoring the comps and just looking at numbers, home prices can be wise, stupid or sleazy. Listings are almost always stupidly or sleazily priced, but closed prices are typically wise.

A wise number ends like this: x0,000 – where x is an even number. In other words, wise numbers are round numbers in $20k increments. Higher prices move the ‘x0’ leftward – and I won’t quarrel with x being odd there, nor at $250k and under. But: Wise numbers look right to buyers – offered and closed – and they close fine with sellers. The last sentence is the entire argument against ever using stupid prices.

Sleazy prices are even worse: $449,999. Can you hear South Park’s Eric Cartman parroting that number? Sleazy prices are transparent and facile attempts to fool people – which are predictably met with contempt by buyers:

Cheaters never prosper? Then why won’t they stop trying?

Caveat venditor: Wise prices sell fast and close cleanly. The other two, not so much.

But buyers take heart: You see a price like $279,900 and you think: “They’re not sure it’s worth $280k.” In fact, they are certain it’s worth $260k – or less – so you should lowball ruthlessly as Days-on-Market hits double digits.

I use the term ‘Last Call’ to refer to sellers who cave catastrophically at the end of a listing because they started too high at the outset – literally dancing The Desperation Waltz with the only remaining partner. But buyers can be that Last Call opportunist.

I like Tuesday mornings at 10:30 am for Last Call offers. The seller’s last hopes for the weekend will have evaporated; they are at their weakest. Declined or no response? Come back next Tuesday morning – but lower.

Whether sleazy or stupid, inept numbers denote inept agents and misled sellers. Take account of those facts and discount for deceit. Cheaters never do prosper, but you can profit from their delusions.

May 5, 2020

A note to our rental-home investors: The state of things in Arizona…

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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What’s going right in our part of Metro Phoenix? Everything that hasn’t gone wrong…

Arizona is reopening – like it or don’t. We never shut down as much as other states, and businesses are opening back up now, with the leader of our V-formation of geese racing to keep up.

So far, we have had no notices of tenants in trouble. That’s day-to-day until things settle down, but we’re over 25% guaranteed income, and we shop hard for income stability on the way in. Cross your fingers, we won’t have a problem.

Over the past year, I’ve warned that we were nearing the top of our market, so the choice was to sell or risk another turn of the wheel. We haven’t actually crested even yet, but Notices of Default will start hitting mailboxes soon, so we could be looking at another glut of listings shortly. Still a good market to sell into, but that may not last long from here, and, sadly, we may be looking at bargain-basement buys again before long.

And yet: The future’s so bright… Vertical, high-density, transit-dependent real estate development will suffer nationwide from here, where the kind of Arizona homes you already own will profit immensely from America’s rediscovery of open spaces, fresh air and unlimited (ahem!) sunlight. I anticipate much higher than normal population growth over the next few years – to the benefit of every current property owner.

​So you know, my biggest day-to-day concern is the ongoing landscaping problem, and that’s a good way to manage your worries from afar: The virus and the response have hurt the state, but not us, and our concerns are largely unchanged from two months ago.

I hope every bit of news in your life is this good.

Best,

Greg

February 26, 2020

#MyWestValley: Two rivers run through it…

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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I plan to write a series of picture-posts about all of the incredible development that’s going on in the Western half of the Valley of the Ever-Fecund Sun, but before that I want to salute two assets that let us catch our breath in this blacktop desert: The New River and the Aqua Fria River.

They’re anarchic linear urban forests, profiting best from neglect, but they are an accessible wilderness in the city. Just breathe…

April 17, 2015

Why should every financed home buyer commit right now? Because interest rates can’t stay this low forever.

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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It’s a simple as this chart, 30 Year Conventional and FHA mortgage rates over the past year:

Screen Shot 2015-04-17 at 2.47.34 PM

What goes down will come back up – perhaps costing you tens of thousands of dollars on your loan qualification amount.

Ready to commit? Cathleen and Maddie have time available for a few motivated buyers: 602-740-7531.

There are always good reasons for waiting. The inevitable turning of the mortgage interest rate tide is a strong goad to act now. If you miss out on this opportunity, you might not see another one like it for a long time.

March 16, 2015

What is the sound of one shoe dropping?

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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I’ll answer a cliché with a cliché: It’s never over until the fat lady signs – but then it is.

Everything that makes homes seem so affordable right now is a reflection of our insanely low interest rates. Every bump in those rates will cut the amount of house you can afford to buy – or commit more of your income to housing and less to the rest of your life.

If you’ve been thinking about making your move – tick tock.

January 26, 2015

Moving up? Moving on? This may be the perfect time to make your move.

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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Why is right now the strategically perfect moment to move up?

Screen Shot 2015-01-26 at 10.43.20 AM

Because the mortgage interest-rate trend illustrated in that chart won’t last forever. There are other good reasons to make your move now, if moving’s on your mind, but these rates make a $200,000 home cheaper than the rent on half that much house.

There’s this, too: When rates turn upward, that will put a damper on already wilted demand, so we may be at the de facto top of this market swing. Prices have been stalled, as best, over the last year.

Washington does want to re-inflate the housing bubble. That’s the reasoning behind all the everything-old-is-new-again exotic loan products, including 3% FHA-beaters from Fannie and Freddie.

But at the same time, both mortgage-interest-deductibility and residential capital-gains deferment are political footballs always in play.

As matters of abstract economics, all of this is destructive, market machinations devised to churn the residential real estate market to no productive benefit.

But as matters of personal financial strategy, events like these provide a useful guide of when and how to act.

Ergo: If you plan to move up in the near future, the future is now:

1. If you have a house to sell, low interest rates increase your buyer pool. It’s a buyer’s market, so you’re going to sell for what you can get, but qualified buyers are out there for turn-key-livable homes,

2. Whatever mortgage you qualify for, you qualify for a lot of house. To be a seller in a buyer’s market is no fun. To be a buyer is a delight. The house you’re looking for is the one that can be home to you for a long time, if necessary. Your payment will be very low. You’re looking for a home that will make you love that loan payment just that much more.

3. Manage your cash. Low-down loans are bad for the economy, long-term, but they may be very good for you. You don’t want more house than you can afford, but you may want the house that will be perfect for you after a few years of concentrated rehab. In this golden moment, you have options about where to put your money, with Uncle Sam practically begging you to put your accumulated equity into other investments.

My take? Let’s dance. We list strong, to get our houses under contract quickly and for top dollar. We work with great lenders who can get you the most money for you money. And we can get you moved into the home you know you’ll be needing for your family in the years ahead.

There may not be another move-up moment this perfect anytime soon. Call me at 602-740-7531 and let’s get busy today.

November 12, 2014

It’s beginning to look a lot like… home-buying bargain season…?

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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The holidays mean different things to different people, but they mean something special to well-prepared home-buyers:

When holly is in the air, it’s a great time to pick off bargains from motivated sellers.

It’s easy to understand why: All the other buyers are tied up with their holiday preprations. Inventories have been rising for more than a year, and some sellers need to make a deal NOW.

Who?

• Folks who want to account for their proceeds on this year’s taxes, not next year’s.

• New home builders who want their spec homes closed out on this year’s books.

• People who are sick of waiting and want to get on to the next chapter in their lives.

A well-crafted aggressive offer can make all the difference in a market like this one. Little things to take away the seller’s fears can make a huge difference.

As with everything in real estate, strategy matters. Give us a call – 602-740-7531 – and let’s talk about getting you moved.

October 17, 2013

If you bought a house in Metropolitan Phoenix within the past few years, you may be able to sell it at a profit.

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Sun City Real Estate Broker

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Hard to believe, isn’t it? You can actually sell a home in Greater Phoenix and make money on the deal.

How can this be so? The long answer is long and boring, but the short answer yields a comprehensive truth in only two words: Market volatility.

We were a slow leak on the way down, until all of a sudden we were a fast leak. And then, just as suddenly, the market surged upward, gaining back a lot of lost price-pressure very quickly.

The result? If you bought a house in Phoenix or its suburbs within the past two or three years, it could be possible for you to sell that home and actually pocket some cash on the deal.

How much money could you scrape off the table?

Phoenix real estate: Sell your Phoenix homeIt could be a lot, actually. We’re getting ready to list a property where we expect the sellers to more than double their 20% down-payment in less than 15 months, total, since they closed on the home.

Your mileage will vary, of course, but you only need to beat your original purchase price by 7% or so to put yourself in the black — and home values are up more than 30% over the past year.

Okay, so you might be able to sell at a profit. Why would you do it? And why now?

The why is your question to answer: To move up to a better home, to move down to a house you can own free-and-clear, to move on to another part of the country, to get your money out of housing and put it into a business — your reasons are your own.

But why now? Because supplies of homes are very low, demand is insanely high — and because neither of these circumstances can last forever.

It could be that we’re back on the appreciation track for the foreseeable future, in which case holding out for higher prices makes sense.

But it also could be that the recent upsurge in prices is the eye of the hurricane, and continued foreclosures combined with other bad economic news could push home values down yet again.

I don’t know which will happen — but I know that no one else knows either.

But if you have a reason to sell your Phoenix-area home, we can make it sell quickly and for top dollar right now. If you want to explore your possibilities — and calculate your potential profits — drop me a line.

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