BloodhoundBlog

There’s always something to howl about.

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Howling about the Positive

One of the things that I found most appealing about long form blogging back in the day was the ability to tell full stories, to create complete word pictures, and to convey complete concepts. In a world of sound bites, click bait titles, twitter feeds and short attention span theatre, the idea of writing in paragraphs was (and is) quite appealling. In the 8 years since I have regularly written on the blog, that has not changed.

I still enjoy it immensely.

But other things have changed. While I can (and do) still mix it up with people when needed, I have found that I enjoy now more than ever seeking out examples of the BEST in the real estate industry as opposed to examples of what NOT to do. In short, there is no shortage of the negative; no shortage of opinions and criticism. What there is a shortage of is uplift and positivity. It is a good thing to point out the positive of main street, rather than only focusing on the battles with wall street. So I am going to try to write the positive that is so scarce vs the negative that is so prevalent.

I am going to be posting weekly about people from around the world of real estate. Friends of mine. People who attack the business from all different sorts of angles. These will all be main street types. People who are on the street selling. People who have overcome obstacles. People who serve their clients and differentiate based on value instead of just price. People from whom you can draw some inspiration.

Come back each Saturday morning. (Yes. I am giving you a time so that I force myself to hit the PUBLISH button.) Want a taste of what is to come?

Great. Here goes.

Right about the time that I was leaving California (over 20 years ago now) to move to Indiana another family was immigrating to the United States and specifically to the East Bay. Rama and Sunil have lived the American dream in an amazing way. Rama became a REALTOR and they have built their business Read more

Overnight News: Welcome to October, y’all. Crisper weather, more and better turmoil.

Ya think it's easy?

“Life is off the lead. Everything else is just drowsing.”

So: What’s new?

CNBC: Homes sold two weeks faster in September due to unusual surge in demand. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

CNBC: San Francisco rents plunge, showing strain from pandemic and wildfires. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Joel Kotkin: An “Ecotopian” Future: Can California’s Green Extremism Go National?

Reason: Lockdowns Intended To Preserve Our Health Are Making Us Poorer and Angrier.

Bloomberg: Inside a California Covid Revolt.

New York Times: The Truth About Today’s Anarchists.

Washington Examiner: Powder keg: 61% say United States ‘on verge of civil war,’ 52% already preparing.

HotAir.com: VP, Wife Test Negative For COVID-19; Update: Trump Physician Says President, FLOTUS “Both Well.”

Dear Spencer Rascoff: How many rich people do you know who like sharing things?

Understanding wealthy people and their real estate needs.

Looking for a real estate startup that is having its very best day?

Launching today, Pacaso – how many great names were passed over for this? – wants rich people to buy expensive second homes – and then share them with other owners.

VRBO meets time-shares, except that nobody actually likes staying in temporary spaces. It turns out there really is no place like home.

People hate sharing their most intimate spaces. They hate sharing driveways, for goodness sakes! I find it hugely implausible that any significant fraction of one-percenters will buy a second home to share with strangers.

Geekwire: Ex-Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff jumps back into real estate, launches startup with former colleagues to help people buy second homes.

PRNewswire: Pacaso Launches to Create New Category of Second Home Ownership; Secures $267 Million in Funding

The website: A better way to buy and own a second home.

Sorry, Spencer: My read is that this is the very worst iBuying idea I have heard so far. Prove me wrong.

Overnight News: Real estate media amazed to discover riot-panicked buyers are different, somehow…

Ya think it's easy?

“I wonder what made all those people on the Titanic suddenly want to take a swim…”

The lockdown on acknowledging the riots continues, as does the riot-spawned real estate panic. You now know who you cannot depend on to tell you the truth – none of them.

Housing Wire: Pending home sales at an all-time high! Now what? CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

CNBC: August pending home sales soar to a record high, fueled by rock-bottom mortgage rates. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Forbes: New York City Real Estate In Q3 2020: The Slow Beginnings Of Revival. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Housing Wire: No housing market slowdown as real estate agents report a busy fall. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found. How obtuse, you ask? Subhead: “Homebuyers not following the school calendar this year in many markets.”

Forbes: 2020 Has Been A Terrible Year For Big City Life. Will Urban Real Estate Ever Recover? CTRL-F ‘riot’; 1 FOUND!

City Journal: Defending the Integrated Suburb.

Forbes: Wildfires Put Nearly 2 Million Homes At Extreme Risk Of Property Losses.

HotAir.com: A New Academic Paper Explains How Anarchists Use Social Media To Instigate Violence.

RedState.com: AP Stylebook: Please Don’t Call That Riot a Riot. How the sausage gets made.

Reason: The Media’s Nervous Breakdown Over Race.

Summit News: Calls For Joe Rogan to Moderate Next Debate Intensify After Chris Wallace’s Disastrous Performance.

Forbes: Some Business Leaders Should Face A Firing Squad, Former Twitter CEO Dick Costolo Suggests In Angry Tweet. The purpose of the riots, assuming you don’t know, is revolution. Summary execution is the next step. The Marxists have been gracious enough to show us the seething totalitarian within. Respond accordingly.

City Journal: No Need to Wait for Herd Immunity.

Overnight News: What ELSE happened yesterday?

Ya think it's easy?

“Television is always boring until someone rings a doorbell.”

Catch any TV last night? Catch up on what you might have missed:

Housing Wire: Home-price index gains the most since 2018. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Forbes: The Housing Market Inventory Shrinks While Home Prices Climb. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

CNBC: Mortgage demand falls nearly 5%, even as interest rates set another record low.

Housing Wire: Consumer confidence posts biggest surge in 17 years.

PJMedia: Tulsi Gabbard Raises the Alarm: ‘Ballot Harvesting Has Allowed for Fraud and Abuse.’

FEE.org: The President Has an ‘Internet Kill Switch.’ A Bipartisan Group of Lawmakers Wants to Change That.

HotAir.com: In Louisville, Blackmail Lives Matter.

City Journal: A Primal Struggle for Dominance.

The American Mind: No Coup For You.

City Journal: Bush v. Gore Redux?

The Federalist: This $1,500 Robot Will Talk To Kids So Parents Don’t Have To.

And: Future bleak humor in the making:

Vanity Fair: “This Does Feel Like A Different Moment”: As Public Support For Black Lives Matter Drops Off, Will Corporate America Stay The Course? American corporations are making themselves captives to their worst hiring decisions. None so deserving – but someone should tell the shareholders.

“Apparently, Opendoor and Zillow and Knock and Flyhomes and Offerpad have been wasting hundreds of millions on all those data scientists and CompSci Ph.D.’s from Stanford.” –Rob Hahn

That sounds right to me. 😉 The waste is not their salaries but the financial havoc they wreak as the very-most-backseat of drivers. That is to say, iBuyers suck at real estate investment, and their hubris prevents any sort of improvement.

“Are YOU notorious? Have you ever BEEN notorious? Well, I have… Not necessarily wise – but compensated.”

Yes, I’m Trump-quoting real-estate consultant The Notorious Rob for fun in the headline, just like the TV “news” does.

But: It turns out Eric Blackwell knows where to poke the Pooh bear’s mincing minions.

My experiences with Rob Hahn have not been pleasant, and this and his other posts are tl;dr, even assuming he knows anything worth reading about, an assumption I do not make.

What’s funny is that Señor Notorious is right here, despite his snark: As soon as the market turns, all of those poindexter models collapse.

And note well: There is ALWAYS something to howl about at BloodhoundBlog.

Overnight News: Only three Nobel Peace Prize nominations. Worst. President. Ever.

Ya think it's easy?

“Totally not funny: How do city dogs go for walks on all the broken glass?”

Looking for a very big October Surprise? I’ve got the overs on a denuclearized North Korea.

CNBC: Home prices rose 4.8% in July, according to Case-Shiller index. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found. But: Phoenix up 9.2%!

Forbes: Barclays: The End Of The City Is An Urban Myth. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Housing Wire: New home sales hot but not bubbly. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Forbes: Mortgage Interest Rates Barely Move Above Lowest Levels On Record.

CNBC: Companies will have to ‘seduce’ staff to go back to the office, real estate CEO says.

Forbes: Is Working For Home Here To Stay?

Joel Kotkin: Americans Won’t Live in the Pod.

American Greatness: The Third Worlding of America.

City Journal: The Substack Superstar System.

Monster Hater Nation: No, You Idiots. That’s Not How Taxes Work. – An Accountant’s Guide To Why You Are A Gullible Moron.

The Federalist: The Left Hates Amy Coney Barrett Because She Disproves All Their Lies About Women.

City Journal: Pouring on the Gasoline.

Sky News: The ‘Trump Doctrine’ earns President third Nobel Peace Prize nomination. What a shame foreign policy won’t be discussed in tonight’s debate.

Husbandry is stewardship first. Are there no more good stewards in America’s economy?

“The simple fact is that you eat better if you work better, even if you are all alone.”

“Under all is the land.”

So says the preamble to the NAR Code of Ethics, and I love those five words of it, at an absolute minimum.

It’s existentially true, obviously. I love the term for real estate in español for that reason – bienes raices, rooted things. So many contract disputes resolved with better word choices!

But the real truth of that observation is economic: Underneath all of the fake wealth of Wall Street securities is the real wealth of real estate.

Silicon Valley billionaires may not own a lot of dirt, but their investors do. Undergirding most mere millionaires, other than their own businesses, is a portfolio of commercial and residential real estate – three or four suburban tract homes, a triple-net drug store or two, strip malls, office parks, apartment communities, skyscrapers. If they don’t own the dirt themselves, their own investors or their REITs do.

The literal foundation all wealth is the land.

Hence: Husbandry of all wealth begins with husbandry of the land we are destined to live on.

This is the idea of stewardship, and it is the essence of the profit-seeking ideal: Better profits come from better stewardship. That much is an economics of isolation: No need for buyers, sellers, trade, currencies or even the idea of profit itself. The simple fact is that you eat better if you work better, even if you are all alone.

So I have some questions for the putative, would-be, wannabe stewards of the American economy. You can pick your own favorite corporate gnomes, but I am specifically highlighting Jeff Bezos of Amazon, Rich Barton of Zillow and Glenn Kelman of Redfin – them because they seem to me to be the worst possible stewards for Seattle, the city they have inflicted themselves on.

So first we note that corporate weenies of every pinstripe have denounced the “systemic racism” committed by everyone around them but themselves.

And we take account that many of them have promised flagrant violations of fair-employment laws to undo all the “systemic racism” Read more

Overnight News: 2020’s October Surprise? Amy Coney Barrett ate it.

Ya think it's easy?

“My favorite color is #993300. I use it everywhere.”

Anyone hoping to land a cream pie on Donald Trump’s face might prepare for disappointment. For the past nine days, the Supreme Court vacancy has overwhelmed all other news, and that does not seem to be abating.

NBC News: California’s Bay Area may require telecommuting, even after the pandemic wanes. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found. I do love the idea of cities working out better ways to chase people away – now that they are free to flee.

CNBC: Office real estate market will get back to pre-Covid level, in 2025: Cushman & Wakefield. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found. Even so: I had my doubts about all of commercial real estate before the world fell apart.

Forbes: The Sherwin-Williams Color Of The Year: A Moody Hue For Moody Times. If you live in a production home, do not do this to your walls. This will take three coats of primer to get rid of.

City Journal: Trump’s Superb Choice.

Is it bad luck to wish for more news? I’m sure there will be some, in any case, some of it not about Amy Coney Barrett.

Digging into a very graphic love poem to get a handle on active, imagic, metaphorically-rich writing

“Could it be me? Could it be me, baby? Could you be in there, too?”

[This is me in August of 2007, and I am reposting rather than revising it because I am changed since then. I’m writing about storgic love here before I even knew its name, and rhapsodizing verbs before I had gotten around to cataloging them – a task I hope to return to, someday. And if you’ve been following my strange relationship with Thalia, there is a flagrant kiss-blowing incident right here. Even so, I have nothing to add to this argument. If anything, events are avenging me with heart-stopping acceleration – much, much more is the pity. And yet: There is hope: For if you can read this, then you yourself are the savior of the truly human life. –GSS]

 
It’s late and the kids are in bed — do make sure the kids are in bed — and I feel like digging a little deeper into the idea of writing. This is a love poem I wrote ten years ago:

let’s make love like velcro baby
it’s the best thing we can do
you stick to me like strapping tape
i’ll stick to you like glue

i’ll cast my anchor in your harbor baby
thrust my shovel in your earth
cling by claws to your cavern walls
take me test my worth
 
        love’s just a hint baby
        love’s just a scent
        just a sniggling squiggling clue
        could it be me
        could it be me baby
        could you be in there too
 
let’s make love like velcro baby
let’s do it ’til we die
grab me grasp me clutch me clasp me
hook me with your eyes

This is fun, first, simply because it’s such a goofy idea. The word play itself is fun, but, even before that, it’s fun because it’s such a clumsy, clinical premise for a love poem, the polar opposite of the sunsets and silences and solitudes of the sonnets: Let’s make love like velcro, baby.

The poem is built from very simple stuff. English words, not stuffy Latinate polysyllables. Active verbs, along with nouns and adjectives rich in imagic particularity. This is what Conrad was talking about, writing to Read more

Overnight News: California ghouls? What has Grasshopper government begot?

Ya think it's easy?

“Heaven is a place called ‘Supermarket Dog Park.’ It’s not in California.”

“California Dreamin’” of what, precisely? Sad to say, the Golden State is badly tarnished. The good news? The Ants will emigrate.

Forbes: Here’s Why The California Real Estate Market Is Hot. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Amy Alkon: L.A.’s Failed Homeless Policies Turned My Home Into a Prison.

New York Post: This city just banned candy from supermarket checkout aisles. 1. No bigger problems just now? 2. Shut down the concession stand at the cinemas, too, if they’re open; that’s where their profits are, too. 3. Soon California will be Grasshoppers-only.

The Drive: There’s a Jeep Wrangler Dangling Off a Cliff in California After Some Fool Drove Up a Bike Trail.

The Federalist: Why We Can’t Have A Good Society Without Freedom.

We gave the Pooh bears some hell last night, but here is the principled anti-Pooh bear poke.

Unchained Melodies: Music to poke Pooh bears by…

As you may have noticed, I am a student of artistic categories no one else knows anything about. In celebration of The Incumbent’s jump into the big game, where it has no one but itself to blame for its consistently abysmal “investment” results, here is a very sparse but very fun musical category:

Pop acts telling their record companies to go to hell.

First is Graham Parker, whose career was essentially ruined by “Mercury Poisoning.” Out of all the New Wave rockers, he’s the rockingest, and he should have been a stadium act in those first few years.

Next up is Cracker, and this is definitely not safe for anywhere:

Listen carefully. Shaggy-dog stories typically don’t hold up well in songs, but this one really works.

But this is a category of only two exemplars, as far as I’m aware. If you know of others, speak up.

Overnight News: It’s quiet… Too quiet…

Ya think it's easy?

“I never could understand the idea of the ‘unreliable narrator’ until a very smart kid explained me to me: ‘Odysseus can’t talk. That’s how you know he’s a dog.’”

Despite the headline, it’s not so much quiet as boring. That’s the way weekends are supposed to be.

Housing Wire: OJO Labs rolls out agent referral network. I don’t normally link to crap like this, because it’s just PR, but two things popped out at me in this one:

  1. “There is no fee to get started, but OJO Labs earns a commission for successful conversions.” Commissiondectomy is the new way to pay!
  2. “In June, OJO Labs announced a $62.5 million funding round and the acquisition of Movoto, a residential real estate search site. Last October, OJO Labs also acquired real estate software platform RealSavvy, and WolfNet Technologies in October 2018.” If you don’t host your own content, you’re at the mercy of whomever your “trusted” vendor pimps itself to.

1000watt.net: Friday Flash: Zzzz.

Note this: “Why would Zillow carry that burden [traditional listing of iBuyer turn-downs] when they’re getting 35% referral fees on the seller leads they’re feeding to existing Premier Agents already?”

My read is that iBuyer “news” is always veiled screams of financial agony. Zillow’s press release the other day read to me like The Incumbent is trying to recapture turn-downs and fall-outs from its broker-partners. That much would be penny-pinching. But all internet “leads” are crap, especially Zillow’s. People either convert instantly or they are gone. How many other inquiries has the prospect made? And were they made at 2 am, after a quarrel? Who wants to pay 35% for that kind of quality?

HotAir.com: Kentucky Lawmaker Arrested On Rioting Charge, Accused Of Setting Fire To Public Library.

City Journal: A “Culture of Lawlessness” in D.A. Offices.

Not the Bee: Super-efficient USPS delivers a letter in Michigan 100 years after it was mailed.

And: Funny, even so:

Just-enough-cinema at home: The just-enough-real-estate movie.

Just-enough-intimacy for two people who are really bad at it.

There is a trend in American cinema over the past dozen years, a product of divorce-culture, that we call the just-enough-dad movie.

Like this: Single-mom of overmothered beta nerd barely tolerates her teenage son learning masculine frame from her disreputable, curmudgeonly neighbor. The yarn is always a benedy: In Act III, the kid takes leadership of his own life, gets the girl and walks like a man from then on.

The best example I can think of is “Gran Torino” – which is also a just-enough-Jesus movie – but there are a bunch of them out there. Find an aging male lead who photographs well without a shave and you’ve got a third the cast – and all of the funding.

So today I bring you a couple of one-off variations.

First, free with commercials on IMDB, “Did You Hear About the Morgans?”

Note well: This is not a send up. This film is a collection of poor choices glued together with treacle. But it is fun, despite all that, and it measures up as a just-enough-real-estate movie.

What’s wrong? The title is awful – useless as marketing. Sarah Jessica Parker is much too old for the role she plays. And Hugh Grant – who surely comes with his own writers to make his gags consistent and his performances too long – for some reason fails to deliver the patented Hugh Grant huge rant at the end of Act II.

Sam Elliott and Mary Steenburgen are fun, as is everyone in the film who does not live in New York. In that sense, it’s a just-enough-Wyoming movie, too, but there is no reason to believe that Hugh Grant either mastered or could manage any sort of masculine frame, going forward.

As for the real estate, it comes down to two scenes. In the first, Parker’s character blows a showing so badly that I wanted to send her license back to the state on the spot. But in the second, she deftly guides an underfunded seller into boosting his curb appeal, leading to a sale. Score Team Read more

Overnight News: Hey! Be nice! Don’t poke the Pooh bears! They’ve got big money to lose – and you can help them squander it!

Ya think it's easy?

“We have alpacas in our neighborhood, but I’d just as soon break into the fridge.”

For all of me, I prefer to think of iBuyers as whales, the very rich dumbasses who unknowingly fund the entire gambling ecosystem. But bears works, too – poorly-adapted, slow-witted, no match for three or four smart dogs working together. When they get lost and wander down into the desert, they leave nothing but sun-bleached skeletons behind.

So, yeah: Poke! Do your worst, Pooh bears. Your wins are imaginary. Your losses are legion – so far.

Yesterday on BloodhoundBlog:

Eric Blackwell: Zillow: Whatever you do. Don’t poke the bear. Lol. Poke!

Brian Brady: Mortgage Refinancing and Forbearance: Three Balls, You Walk, One Strike, You’re Out.

As for the rest of the world…

Redfin: Home Prices Just. Keep. Climbing. National Median Now Up 14% from Last Year. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

CNBC: New home sales crush expectations, but the supply is running out. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

Redfin: New-Construction Home Listings Drop 4% in August, Reversing Course From July’s Rebound. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found.

SFGate.com: Bay Area applicants flood program that pays them $10,000 to leave California.

Fox News: Gun sales in major swing states up nearly 80% this year: Will it have any bearing on election outcome?

The Daily Signal: Public Schools Across Country Promote Black Lives Matter, Organize Protests.

TaxProf Blog: Welcome To The Turbulent Twenties.

Anchorage Daily News: Brown bear breaks into Alaska Zoo, kills alpaca named Caesar.