BloodhoundBlog

There’s always something to howl about.

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BHB and Real Estate’s OODA Loop.

The reason that I became a part of BHB was because BHB wants to matter most.  I don’t agree with everything Greg says or does (and he doesn’t always agree with me), but the core ethos at BHB is peerless.  It’s the same reason why I dug the Smashing Pumpkins so much.  Like him or not, Billy wanted to be the best rock band that rock and roll has ever seen.  He took title shot after title shot.  He didn’t make it, but we are all enriched for his efforts.   BHB is full of people that want to raise the bar so high that everyone benefits.  BHB wants to be the best RE blog ever, and we’re doing it, and I get to be part of it.  Oh, the fun.

But why to we have a head start?  It’s about the ideas, and it’s about the ethos of being independent, fierce, smart and fast.  Getting ideas out here quickly, with no rules, no committee is the best thing we do here.  And so, for those (few) of you that aren’t familiar with the OODA loop, I had to call it to your attention.

This is what BHB is doing doing, and it comes from a famous fighter pilot.

Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.  Repeat.

From wikipedia:

By observing and reacting to events more quickly than an opponent, you can ‘get inside,’ their decision cycle and gain advantage.

An image:

Zillow was the most obvious example. 

When you’re inside the loop, you’re disrupting others and forcing them to react to you.  Zillow got inside the NAR’s loop with the Zestimate, and changed the industry.  The NAR reacted, but now has to consider Zillow (and all transparency implications that come with free data) in everything they do.  Everyone benefits when we crash the loop of a bad actor, and we’re all in Zillow’s debt because the NAR has to get better–or else they risk being irrelevant.

We benefit when we crash anyone’s loop because once we can do that once, we can repeat the process ad infinitum, and Read more

The world you find is the world you’re looking for…

The Associated Press has a story this morning on on how weak and powerless people feel when they spend too much time obsessing over the news and not enough time pursuing their values.

I thought I’d share with you a photograph that seems to me to be a perfect expression of how weak and powerless humanity really is:

(Many more here.)

The universe, by definition, is everything there is. But your every experience of the universe starts and ends inside your mind. Your experience of life will be precisely as splendorous or as squalid as you want it to be. Do you want to change the universe, forever, for the good? Start by changing the way you think.

WordPress Security – More important these days.

As in most things…the guy who throws up WP blogs by the dozen is the last guy to check his own. (the cobblers kids have no shoes, et al).

Confession Time:

EricOnSearch is my blog. It also is my business site. My site disappeared from Google’s radar about a week ago. Still indexed, but did not rank. How do you know it is a penalty? Typically, it won’t even rank for search terms like ericonsearch …not many people going for that one! (grin)

While search engine traffic is not the be all and end all for my blog, (most people who come there come from a post I have written or a comment on another site), since search engine work is a big part of what I do, getting no Google love is not cool.

Time to Investigate:
What I found was that my site had been hacked. And neatly inserted into my footer file were about 300 links to meds, poker and porn! How do you find it? In your blog, you can go to either “presentation” or “design” and then click on “Theme Editor”. If you look at BOTH the “header.php” and the “footer.php”, but there is a SIMPLER method. Here is a link to an “outbound link checker”. The reason that spammers spam is to get hidden links from your site to theirs. Go to this link checker and enter your url into it and run it… (Note: Eric Bramlett is working on a NEAT little plugin that will monitor OBLs and let you know via email before it becomes a search engine issue.)

If you see a bunch of links to bad neighborhoods, then you have an immediate issue.

Even if you don’t have an immediate issue, you still need to take action.

One of the best posts that I have found with an actionable list of what to for Word Press security is this one. I recommend taking the steps indicated here and in following the needed links from this page to find more info. As it says in the comments, step #9 can cause some grief.

An easier way for those not Read more

Technorati 599? Now they’ve got my attention…

We stopped running the Technorati widget a while ago. They went through some kind of hosting nightmare, and they were dragging us down on page loads as we waited for their software to time out. But they did some kind of recalculation this week, and suddenly I’m loving them a whole lot better.

We might not have Google right now — not that that matters — but we’re within striking distance of being one of the top 5,000 weblogs in the Technorati universe. How cool is that?

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Investors are coming back to the Phoenix rental home market — and with the right business plan they’ll make money

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Investors are coming back to the Phoenix rental home market — and with the right business plan they’ll make money

Rental home investors are coming back into the Phoenix real estate market, and this is a good thing.

The last time we had a substantial run on rental housing, results were not so sweet. Investors came to Phoenix with the idea that price appreciation would make up for any monthly losses they might take on their rental homes. It’s plausible they were right — in the long run. In the short run, negative cash flow and declining values, coupled with adjustable-rate or negative-amortization loans, drove many of these homes into foreclosure.

And this accounts for much of the inventory the new wave of investors is drawing upon. The difference is, the prices for these homes have declined enough that they can be — at least potentially — cash-flow positive.

Why only potentially cash-flow positive?

Because too many investors adopt the worst of the cartoonish characterizations of capitalism when they resolve to become landlords. They pick the cheapest properties in the worst locations and rent to the least-qualified tenants, living through one eviction and repair nightmare after another.

Here’s a strategy for making more money from a rental home — much more peacefully.

There are dozens of costs associated with rental housing, and your business plan should take account of all of them. But your biggest potential losses are always going to be vacancy, tenant acquisition, repairs and resale value.

It makes much more sense to me to buy a property that can command premium rents and will sell at a premium price when you’re ready to move on. Location matters, as do the livability and lifestyle factors of the specific home. You want to pick a home that will stay rented.

I think it’s a good idea to charge something less than the market rent. This will give you a broader array of tenants to choose from, which will enable you to select tenants with good credit who will treat your property like their own.

With the right house Read more

Redefining Mortgage Disclosure

Jeff Corbett announced that he launched Ratespeed this week:

What is it? An anonymous, automated, transparent, mortgage program and interest rate pricing pre-qualification Search Engine widget, thingy.


Why is this important? For the first time anyone can transparently access wholesale direct mortgage interest rates and program quotes without having to talk to a licensed mortgage professional first. Yep, this is important to a lot of people.

I”ve been thinking about how to improve a mortgage shopping experience for consumers and am enthralled with both Jeff’s offering and the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. Both platforms are trying to better display information to consumers about loan terms. Zillow approaches it from a “live market” while Jeff Corbett focuses his efforts on yield spread premium.

I think the answer lies in a combination of a suggestion Todd Carpenter made, about eliminating all yield spread premium disclosure, and the Bank of America No Fee Plus Mortgage. I demonstrated how the No Fee Plus Mortgage was no real bargain today, after I visited my bank.

There is an answer. Isolate one variable; rate. Make loan originators guarantee all third-party fees, as well as their fees, when quoting mortgage terms. ABN-AMRO (now Citigroup) tried this some 3-4 years ago when they offered the “Guaranteed One Fee Mortgage“. When you do a side-by-side comparison with rates and loan programs matched up, you’ll get a true cost of credit if the originator is required to manage the closing costs and disclose them as one fee.

Banks or brokers will only disclose two things to the consumer: rate and one fee. It would be stupendously simple to understand.

The just-exactly-how-dumb-are-you Realtor-spam of the day: Effection might come at a high price, but at least it’s fleeting

This one came to me as real-world spam, and it has a cloying kind of plausibility to it:

Hmm… That’s almost kindasorta a good idea, isn’t it? Laptop in the car? Maybe not so much. Wi-Fi-enabled PDF? They’re out there, but the iPhone.2 is going to EDGE every other hand-held device to the sidelines. In fact, both types of iPhones are Wi-Fi-enabled, but we know that Wi-Fi is going to be Wi-ped out within a few years.

Even so… Let’s go to the videotape:

I don’t actually hate this idea, but the pitch to the consumer boils down to this: “Your Realtor is too lazy to service your flyer box, so let’s sell him a high-tech gimmick so he can express his laziness in a different way.” I like the idea of doing more to sell listings, but I hate every variety of the brains-not-included plug-n-chug solution.

But that’s as may be. How much does it cost for an effectioNet.com eLapTopTour web site?

Holy cow! They might be plug-n-chug, but they’re cheap: $65, $85 or $95.

But wait. As Tom Waits says, “The large print giveth and the small print taketh away.” Witness:

effectioNet’s pricing schedule is very simple: we lease the device for a fee of $50 per month.[…]

We do require a $150 deposit, fully refundable on return of the device intact, and, we offer a 6 month minimum lease.

The program works on a first month’s lease of $50 + $150 deposit. Then an auto deduction will be taken each month for the balance of the term. We take PayPal and/or all major credit cards.

Townes Van Zandt said, “If you want good friends, they’re gonna cost you,” and effectioNet’s affections are going to run you $365 minimum. Per listing. What will you have at the end of your six month minimum lease? Fond memories.

So let’s say this is demi-semi-sorta plausible. The idea behind the product is kind of half-baked, especially since we already know how to do much better single-property websites than this plug-and-chug upchuck. If we’re committed to the idea but not the execution, what might work better instead?

You can buy new-in-box Mac Minis for $600 Read more

Speaking in tongues: Parsing structured data on the fly

This is not ProjectBloodhound material, at least not first semester stuff. But if you find yourself running into highly structured data — such as the reports from a spreadsheet or a database application — you have the ability to easily manipulate that data in PHP.

This is a simple example, but you don’t have to limit yourself to doing simple things. Imagine a data structure like this:

Name[tab]Phone Number
Cathleen Collins[tab]602-369-9275
Greg Swann[tab]602-740-7531

In the file the code shown here as “[tab]” would be an actual tab character, and this kind of data goes by the arcane name of: A tab-delimited file.

Most programming languages were written by exacting people with abstract and elegant reasons for everything they did. PHP was written by overbooked programmers who needed to pound out new web pages as quickly as possible.

In consequence, PHP is optimized for dealing with highly structured data. Here is a short program that will take a tab-delimited phone number file as input and output reformatted phone numbers into the HTML stream. In other words, this code could produce a dynamically-updated phone list in what what might otherwise be a static web page:

<?PHP
auto_detect_line_endings;

$fi = fopen("PhoneNums.txt","r");
$line = fgets ($fi, 4096); // throw away fieldDef line

echo ("<b>Phone Numbers</b><br>");

while (!feof($fi))
    {
    $line = fgets ($fi, 4096);

    list ($Name, $Phone_Number) = explode ("\t", $line);

    if ($Name)
        {
        echo ("$Phone_Number <i>($Name)</i><br>");
        }
    }

fclose ($fi);
?>

There is one line that makes all the difference for this kind of work:

    list ($Name, $Phone_Number) = explode ("\t", $line);

The stuff between the parenthesis are our known field names, and we’re using them as variable names for clarity’s sake. The explode function will create an array of separate fields from the text stored in the $line variable, splitting the fields on the tab character. The list function then inherits the array just created by explode and assigns each field to the appropriate field name variables. We only have two fields Read more

The just-exactly-how-dumb-are-you Realtor-spam of the day: Piggy-back riding through the grave-yards of real estate

Okay, we’ll start with a certified Vegas-quality stand-up joke:

So I got this piece of spam email that said, “Make love to your wife like a pro!” I thought that sounded like a good idea, so I locked her in a closet and stole her purse. [Ba-dum-bump!]

This

is a charming discussion by Carl White of how you can “grave rob” the Yellow Pages ads of all of your failed former competitors by “piggy-backing” on their disconnected phone numbers. This is sleazy, but it’s clever enough that I signed up for the free tips, just to see what else he comes up with. In due course he will become yet another by-the-month training guru, but I will never pay him one red cent. But for sheer chutzpah, this guy is hard to beat.

(If you’re having a hard time wrapping your mind around the morality of this issue, consider the ethical implications of being lied to on a first date. If you answer someone else’s phone line, even if that person is out of business, you are starting a relationship with a lie. What other lies should your clients expect from you? And if you are honest in all other respects, why would you undermine your credibility in this way?)

I’ve had a bunch of email this morning from people passing along their ludicrous spam. Keep ’em coming. We’ll knock them down one by one.

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Who wants to play the ProjectBloodhound game? Teri and I are avid to inflict some excellence on a few hapless volunteers, provided you will pitch in your own unique Social Media Marketing skills

Hunter Jackson came up with the idea of revisiting ProjectBloodhound the other night, and that was a stroke of pure genius. It gnawed at me as soon as he brought it up, and I wasn’t alone: Teri Lussier was thinking along the same lines.

Here’s why: Even though we documented our thinking in RealEstateWeblogging101.com, we think differently now. There are things we’ve come up that we want to deploy, and there are a host of half-germinated ideas we want to bring to flower.

On my own plate:

  • Teri and I need to rebuild TheBrickRanch.com to make it engenu-friendly
  • Cathy has plans for me to build weblogs for our handy-man, for our doggie day-care provider, etc.
  • I have had as a post-Unchained project the daunting task of moving all of our existing weblogs over to WordPress Multi-user

The last project subsumes the others, and it also creates a ProjectBloodhound opportunity. I have thought that, while implementing WP-mu, I would build a prototype of a perfect-in-the-abstract hyperlocal real estate weblog — best practices in everything.

And that’s where it all comes together. I kindasorta hated Project Blogger, because it seemed to me to become just another cliquescene beauty contest, and we never win anything like that. But I didn’t care about that, anyway. We got a frolicking book out of our efforts, for goodness’ sakes, influencing a bunch of real estate webloggers along the way.

And we can do our own thing now, with no contest to cause distractions: Invite one or a few wannabloggers over to play with us, help to build weblogs, help to build a Social Media presence, help to launch people who want to do better into a better orbit in their home markets.

What’s in it for us? By helping them, we’ll help ourselves. There are things that each of us could be doing better. By going through everything in detail, we can figure out what we should be changing in our own marketing.

But: There’s a catch: I’m overbooked on blue-sky projects, and Teri doesn’t want to do this alone. We want to bring the best of everything we have at BloodhoundBlog to this effort, so we Read more

Roger that…

I stare in wonderment at my mail; not my e-mail—that constant leaky faucet of unfiltered real estate industry drip, male performance and enhancement spam, and odd social bric-a-brac from people with whom I occasionally exchange pleasantries—but my real mail. My U.S. Postal mail. The mail that Roger, my letter carrier, donned in his crisply pressed blue striped government issue uniform and pith helmut, delivers at or around 10 o’ clock each morning, except Saturdays. That’s how he likes to be referred to, or so I surmised from the money-holder envelope/holiday note he left in our mailbox last December…
 
To:        The Petros and The Klopeks

Re:        Merry Christmas 

From:   Roger, your letter carrier.

The Klopeks are our next door neighbors (three generations, mostly female, under one roof) who sold me and my wife the house we currently live in. I actually deliver their mail a few days a week because after almost a year in the neighborhood, Roger still doesn’t understand the property changed hands and we are not all one big happy Italian/Polish family sharing two houses on the same oversized lot, although we’ve all told him as much on more than a few occasions–the Klopeks and the Petros both. In defense of him though, the property was subdivided at the settlement table last August (where Roger was not present) with the main house (The Petros) and the coach house (The Klopeks) receiving separate PINs.  Anyway, Roger is a super-genius compared to the folks at the City of Chicago Assessor’s Office who, after an equal span of monthly correspondence and phone calls, likewise can’t figure out the difference between a Petro and a Klopek. I tip them nothing at Christmas.

Roger is clearly not of this Midwest culture but rather from the Philippines, or Singapore, or some Pacific Rim territory where dentistry is not a component of the universal health system and where the name ‘Roger,’  I suppose, is American for something else, and extended families are the norm rather than the exception. My father (who doesn’t live with us) has a Dell customer service rep, also named Roger, assigned to his extended service account who is definitely from, and still in, the Philippines.  Then there was the fellow behind the Hertz counter in Honolulu last Thanksgiving but as I think back now, I’m pretty sure his name may have been Patrick–but Read more

Missing The Opportunity To Achieve Excellence

When Going The Extra Mile Simply Makes Good Economic Sense

When my best friend asked his mother what she wanted for her 70th birthday, she instantly said, “To be with my family.” He offered her a European cruise or other similar possibilities… but she stood firm. Family is what she wanted.

So he began the process of planning the event.

We talked about some different scenarios, as he requested that I photograph the event – and I wanted a venue with some decent locations to use as a background.

Since many family members would be coming in from out-of-town, a nice hotel needed to be selected… and when he told me he was considering the Hilton in Charlotte – I laughed and said, “I stayed there last week… nice place, for sure.”

After researching his options, my friend realized that the Hilton could be a one-stop shop, as they had all the facilities he needed right there at the hotel. The family could come to town, enjoy a nice dinner, enjoy the family, propose a few toasts and hear a speech or two… then do a little dancing – and never have to leave the hotel.

One of the items on the agenda was a multimedia powerpoint presentation featuring images taken throughout his mother’s life… complete with music that she loves. He had worked hard to put this presentation together – and looked forward to his entire family being able to enjoy it.

When we arrived at the hotel, we began to inspect the facility as well as the grounds. We were a little disappointed with the landscaping, as outdoor watering restrictions were literally killing the grass and plants – but it is what it is.

In the banquet hall, the Hilton staff was setting up the tables. The projection screen was up – but no projector could be found. We wanted to get the projector set up early to avoid any problems with the presentation… so we asked the staff to find our projector.

The manager came to our banquet room to inform us that if we wanted a projector – he would be happy to rent us Read more

Contra Cammarosano: “You will know when BloodhoundBlog has attained its goals when there is no more carney-barker jive to be found anywhere in real estate.”

This is a response to a comment that grew up to be a post:

Louis Cammarosano: “[I]f it wasn’t for “Vendor” Zillow, Unchained Phoenix would have shown a loss.”

No, we would have done the show in a different facility, without food. Zillow.com paid for our guests to have a much better experience than they would have had otherwise. I’m very grateful for this, but it had nothing to do with what were doing. If we can, I want to pay for Orlando entirely from receipts, so that we will have heard the last of these specious charges.

Louis Cammarosano: “The anti vendor rhetoric falls flat when your conference was sponsored by one and you have become one yourself.”

Falls flat for whom? Is there anyone reading this who thinks that we are casting about for a way to make milch cows out of Realtors and lenders, in the way that virtually everyone associated with the Inman.com/Realtor.com/Move.com world seeks to milk Realtors and lenders? I’m completely serious. If you really think that, let me know, because I will want to dial up the anti-vendor/anti-broker/anti-NAR rhetoric quite a bit. I am sick to death of putatively self-employed business people being swindled by one huckster after another, and I am doing everything I can think of to put a stop to it. If I haven’t made that abundantly clear by now, the fault is mine, and I will mend my ways with renewed vigor.

I actually agree with the point you don’t quite make: Zillow.com — and possibly some other vendors fully within the Web 2.0 world — don’t deserve to be lumped together with the other companies making up the milking-machinery branch of the Inmanosphere. What can one say about this grievous injustice? How about: Dang.

BloodhoundBlog is a very costly endeavor. Our bandwidth needs are huge, so our hosting fees are fairly high. BloodhoundRealty.com absorbs all of that, along with any other costs associated with running this site. But those numbers pale when compared with the labor value — and the market value — of the content accumulated here — provided by me and by three dozen Read more

A Different Business Model For Your Consideration

At Brown and Brown, we’re undergoing moderate to extreme changes in our business model. Extreme at home, mild to moderate away from home. We’re leveraging our Rainmaking ability through these changes. Below, I’ll address what we’re about to launch in our own backyard.

At home we’re eschewing the 3% listing side fee for a relatively modest monthly fee.

The fee will be $500-1,000 monthly, ’till sold. The buyer’s agent will still get 3%, sometimes more. Properties sold in 90 days or less will save, on average, five figures. This model is custom designed for our specific client profile locally, which is an income property investor who should be taking that equity to places out of state. (Preferably by around 4:30 yesterday afternoon.) Our niche has been 2-4 unit properties, but we’re gonna market hard to SFR’s/condos/townhomes also, if they’re rentals.

It’s my belief this model will work incredibly well for house agents. Here’s how I see it working for them.

1. Massive Old School and 2.0 marketing. The methods really aren’t important as long as you’re hanging cat skins by the dozens on the wall. Once the pipeline is full, entrance and exit, it’ll become almost self perpetuating. Not really, but close enough for jazz.

Thought

The marketing? We’ll be using postcards/snail mail with warm call follow-ups. ‘Course we have a distinct advantage when calling. House agents can’t convince a homeowner to sell. We can. They don’t live there. If we can convince them they should sell/exchange through our experience, expertise, and general all around charm, they’ll list. We’ll be using other methods, but that’s another post.

2. As many buyers’ agents as required. In the current buyer’s market, maybe more than I’d need when things normalize. Then again, depending on your market, ‘normal’ may mean the explosion of pent up demand lookin’ for a place to light.

Thought

Another advantage for Brown and Brown in San Diego. We have no need whatsoever for even one buyer’s agent. We think it’s silly to invest here, so we won’t be representing buyers. We couldn’t sleep at night if we put folks into San Diego Read more