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Know Nothing, Do Nothing Fed Inspires Confidence and Encourages Faith

The Federal Reserve released it’s August statement yesterday and pundits are scrambling to interpret what was and (equally as important) wasn’t said.  Financial market participants have a 10-15 year history of trying to “outguess” the FOMC and focus more on the commentary than the actual decisions.  The result has been volatile market movements directly after a word was changed from “probable” to “eventual” in the Fed commentary.

I’ve learned to trust Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke’s judgement.  An astute student of Milton Friedman’s study of The Fed’s role in the Great Depression, Bernanke has taken considerable action to preserve a healthy banking system.  Free market enthusiasts would argue that his intervention is artificially  postponing the eventual asset deflation reflective of a dour economy.  I’d argue that his actions were necessary to promote confidence.

Confidence.

Sean Purcell and I discussed the press’ obsession with doom and gloom yesterday.  Last month a Qantas 747 lost a portion of its fuselage, had to quickly descend below the 10,000 “hard deck”, and make an emergency landing.  The 2.0 world gives us citizen journalism in the form of this passenger video.  Watch it and you’ll see a professional air crew inspiring confidence in faithful passengers.

The Australian News realized that “professional” and “rational” won’t sell fishwraps and elected to lead with “Terror As Huge Hole Cripples Qantas Plane“:

A QANTAS jet plunged 20,000 feet and was forced to make an emergency landing after a giant hole was ripped in the plane’s undercarriage, passengers say.

The Qantas Boeing 747, en route from London to Melbourne, via Hong Kong, landed safely today and a “gigantic” hole was discovered in the belly of the plane, near the wing.

Some of the 346 passengers on board told of debris flying through the depressurised cabin, and oxygen masks dropping from the ceiling. Some said the plane had plunged about 20,000 feet after a door “popped”.

“There was a terrific boom and bits of wood and debris just flew forward into first (class) and the oxygen masks dropped down,” Melbourne woman Dr June Kane told ABC Radio.

An option to “lead with the bleeder” rather than the heroism of the air crew.  Read more

The just-exactly-how-dumb-are-you Realtor-spam of the decade: RECS wrecks twenty-six reputations for only a buck

This

incites no end of questions for me.

For example, exactly how will my mastery of Real Estate Cyberspace have improved by sending these schmucks a dollar?

If I send two dollars, can I be twice as wizardly?

Precisely how much value should my clients put on a real estate designation that is just as difficult to obtain as an Official Inman News sippee cup — but $148 cheaper?

Yes, yes, I’m sure there’s fine print, but I’m a high D and I don’t care. Here’s the question that made me crazy for days:

I don’t know of all of those twenty-six people who lent their names and faces to this vastly stoopid promotion, but I know of quite a few of them. Presumably they took some pains to make themselves famous in the real estate vendor space. My question:

Why would they deliberately wreck their reputations by associating themselves with this sleazy wreck of a real estate designation?

I’m quite serious. I’ve had this email open all week, trying to figure it out. I get slimed all the time by creepoids trying to leech away the value of my recommendations, but the sole power I have in the marketplace of ideas is my reputation for integrity. Because I never attach my name to crap, you know that, if I do praise a product, I’m doing so for reasons I consider valid. I can’t imagine taking money to endorse a product, but, surely, it is far worse to take money to endorse a product that — by its own admission — is not even worth a dollar!

And it’s not one wannabe real estate bigfoot up there, it’s twenty-six of them! Reputation is all there is in the Web 2.0 world. Why would they squander the intellectual capital they worked so hard to accumulate?

I couldn’t work it out, but then I stumbled on an infomercial-like sales presentation that made the whole issue clear to me:

Mind what goes into your mind.

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Utopia, Eureka, Eugene!

Now where was I…? Oh yeah, poking fun at my fellow real estate consorts for exhibiting groveling-like behavior in a buyer’s market. But that was three weeks ago and as we all know, a lot can happen in 21 days. It was also the last time I personally wrote a deal or, for that matter, even had a legitimate buyer in my car.

In 21 days they say a person can break a habit, create a habit or change a behavior. In 21 days most solid citizens should be able to negotiate a real estate offer, secure a mortgage commitment, and receive a clear to close letter from their lenders (one would think). In 21 days a well priced property, even in a lukewarm urban market like Chicago, should have at least one decent showing (ditto the above sentiment). In 21 days, the average household fly has experienced its entire lifespan without even having a genetic shot at morphing into a butterfly– unlike his other, more birth privileged fellow insect, the caterpillar. And in the blink of an eye (plus 21 days, give or take) and a thimble full of fate, it can all change…

My parents were married 10 years before I came along–that’s how they always put it; “…then you came along,” which I was cool with, mind you. No therapy issues here. As a youngster I had this imaginary vision of me arriving on some sort of astral boxcar that just came along; hungry and unshaven, in need of a drink and a smoke (lot’s of black and white TV watching in those early years)…God then drops me (already, a somewhat old soul, I’m supposing, thus the alcohol and tobacco hobo reference) into the Petro family just as they were clearing the dishes from the proverbial dinner table a good 10 years after the metaphoric dessert was served. I also have two younger sisters who apparently, just came along as well. According to the little bit I know about quantum mathematical statistics, all three of us could have just as easily been caterpillars, Read more

The Fed Translated….

As you have probably heard by now, the Fed held rates the same today.   Here’s their statement (in italics) and my translation (in bold).  I hope this helps you understand what is going on.

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2%.

Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. Partly reflecting the stimulus checks that we all received during the second quarter.   Did you spend, save, or pay off debts with yours? However, labor markets have softened further When the markets expected 70,000 jobs lost and we got some “good news” of only 51,000 jobs lost for July, you know the job market is softening. and financial markets remain under considerable stress Yep.  Enough said. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters The next few quarters – so we are going to be in this for a while. Over time, the substantial easing of monetary policy, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate economic growth. Eventually we’ll work our way out of this.

Inflation has been high, spurred by the earlier increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, and some indicators of inflation expectations have been elevated. The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain. Inflation has calmed down, especially with the recent drop in oil and other commodities.   However, we don’t know what it’s going to look like going forward.

Although downside risks to growth remain, the upside risks to inflation are also of significant concern to the Committee. It’s a toss up.   There are risks on both sides and we’re not really sure what is going to happen. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. We haven’t fallen asleep, we are aware of what Read more

Truth, Damn Truth, and Consumer Reports

Consumer Reports has released a survey that shows that the national RE companies have successfully wrung every drop of meaning out of their so-called brands.

I haven’t had a chance to read the report, but there is enough on Inman today to get the gist:

  • Even though Indie agents were said to offer fewer services, “…sellers who used them were just as satisfied” as the sellers who used name-brand agents.
  • Customer satisfaction scores for Real Estate companies ranged from 79 to 81. A 3 point spread. Homogenization complete.

Translation: Sellers don’t mind when an indie agent fails to show up with a folder full of Home Warranties, and they don’t care which logo adorns the business cards of the brand-name agents who do.

I am looking out my window at a Hostess delivery truck with a picture of a split-open chocolate cup cake next to the Hostess logo. I want one. I want to peel the frosting off, set it aside, eat the decapitated cupcake and chase it with the frosting just like I did when I was 10. I have an emotional attachment to Hostess Cupcakes that started the day my Mom brought home a box from the supermarket, and its been reinforced every time I have had two (you have to have two) ever since.

Every time I open that cupcake wrapper, I know what I am going to get: The plastic peels off of the frosting even (usually) if the package is warm and they taste *exactly* the same every time, even if they have been sitting on a shelf for six years. Mom brought home cheap, store brand chocolate cupcakes once….Once.

That’s how branding is supposed to work. The ad man Jerry Bulmore said that “Consumers build an image [of a brand] as birds build nests. From the scraps and straws they chance upon.” Bulmore’s sticks and straws are interactions, and what he left out is that the strongest nests are built when the building materials are consistent.

Branding a service is inherently difficult. Unlike cupcakes, its a lot harder to control the quality of the end product, and something as fragile as the emotional Read more

More Baseball Stuff: Steroids & Subprime.

image

In 2003-05, we had the boom.   We all know that now, and it basically is what it is.   The picture links to the (in)famous TIME magazine cover story “Home Sweet Home,” where the ‘boom was on,’ and the whole of the market was talked about.   There was a little bit of a caveat in that piece but not much.  The message was: thank God for Housing, because without it, the Bush recession would be a reality.   Lenders, Lend, Realtors Sell, and everyone take advantage and drink from the neverending fountain of wealth.

The bubbletalk had been swept under the rug, and we ALL were selling and we ALL were happy about some good news to take place of the dot com bear market that we’d experienced.   We had a sacred duty to produce and keep spending, and encourage everyone to do the same thing.  We were honored as post 9/11 patriots.  .  Everyone loves a winner, and this industry was winning.   Nevermind the fact that anyone who took up space could get a great rate on their mortgage—Realtors were actually gaining in esteem.

The 100% investment loan was available to anyone with a 620 credit score.  And Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs.

Everyone looked the other way and pretended the future wasn’t coming. 

imageWe’ve talked a little about baseball lately, let’s turn the WayBack Machine to 1998.  Remember when Barry, Sammy and Mark were heroes?   Mark and Sammy saved us all from the strike, and made baseball fun again.   We got to watch everyone send 500 foot moonshots off of expansion diluted middle relief pitching, and it was good.

The thrill of that summer is still unforgettable, when BOTH Sammy and Mark broke Marris’s longstanding record and were briefly tied with 62 home runs, we were all enthralled.  The very Ruthian nature of their achievement made it a joy to resume our love affair with baseball.  Mark and Sammy hit 70 and 66 home runs that year.  Ken Griffey Junior’s 56 was an afterthought.   

Ten years ago, these achievements Read more

My next journey…a personal note.

I just wanted to drop in a personal note on the blog if you will indulge me.

The last couple of weeks have been a busy time at the Blackwell house and there have been a lot of things going on! A while back, I introduced you to the real Team Eric, my family. Many of you got a chance to read about my two sons’ efforts to help others who have autism. While I have always been behind them and supported their efforts, that is about to go to a whole new level.

Yesterday, I signed a book deal with the major Autism / Asperger Syndrome book publisher to author a book that will serve as a simple and practical guide for Dad’s of kids “on the Spectrum”. I have published essays and whitepapers in the past, but have never authored a book. This is a challenge like none I have ever faced before, but I would not have it any other way. It is going to be fun.

Rest assured that this will not affect anything more than slightly altering the frequency of my posts…and then not for long. You can read into that that the Realtor.com stuff is coming. (grin) I care too much for this industry to do anything less. This is just a personal side-trip to support my boys and family in their efforts…and hopefully brighten the world a bit in the process. And I wanted to share in the excitement (read: terror) of the moment with you. (grin)

Have a great day!

A Realtor’s Life: Deeply Spiritual and Cheesier

I admit my mind works a little differently than most – I like to write and talk about things that are current – so, in light of the past week’s recent events, I decided that I wanted to correlate last week’s LA earthquake, the current credit crunch and my recent trips to Costco into a meaningful discussion regarding real estate.  Surprisingly, there is a high correlation.

I have a habit of sharing my addictions as many of you well know – caffiene – and yes, Costco – sad to say, I often find myself “dining-out” with the combo pizza, occasionally the chicken caesar salad, 2 hotdogs (for my dogs) and let’s face it – the 2 drinks are essentially free.  Critical in today’s tough economic times.

You ask – how is this even remotely relevant?  Well – after hearing the news regarding the quake, and the follow-up public service announcements locally on the radio questioning what my emergency plan is in the event of an actual emergency – have I made the necessary arrangements for 72 hours of provisions – bottled water, food, batteries etc?

I immediately thought – I need to go to Costco.

Prior to my almost twice weekly adventure – mind you there are 2 of us plus 2 dogs – I checked to see what I needed – a quick scan of the pantry revealed 36 boxes of Mac & Cheese, 24 rolls for toilet paper, 72 bottles of water, two 128 fluid oz bottles of Neutrogena handwash – fridge check – 4 gallons of milk, 36 eggs, 128 oz of mayo and 48 slices of Timberlake muenster cheese.   Hmm – no batteries.

Off to Costco.

Being a Sagitarius, I am by nature an optimist, however, in light of my chosen profession, I am becoming intimately familiar with actual emergencies – the professional kind.  I’ve negotiated some tough deals, fended off irrate clients – but the emergencies I am speaking of are realtor’s-life threatening.  I Twittered briefly today with fellow “hound” Tom Vanderwell regarding Meredith Whitney’s interview on CNNMoney.com regarding the nature of the credit market.  She has a fairly solid track Read more

Another real estate model, a less-radical variation on a current theme that can work within the present regulatory context: A national franchise of real estate franchisors, each of whom is committed to sustaining the value of the brand

I read Rob Hahn’s ideas about brokerage-as-law-firm last week. I thought that much was kind of naive — a reflection of a lack of understanding the legal realities of real estate brokerage — but I didn’t jump in because I thought some of his other ideas were interesting.

Here’s the problem: A law firm is based on 1040 employment. The real estate brokerage safe harbor makes it extremely beneficial for brokers to have nothing but 1099 employees. There is no reason to expect that to change unless the IRS removes the safe harbor — three weeks after hell has frozen over.

The Team model works, but it’s inherently small-time.

Branding could work — but doesn’t — because the independent contractor status of agents dilutes the brand to homeopathic concentrations.

Hard-branding like Bloodhound does can only work with very strict control. Redfin has this — but it also has 1040 employees.

All that notwithstanding, present-day brokers are at risk of being wiped out at any minute by several liability — the designated broker is responsible for every idiot he puts out on the street.

Here’s a solution that makes sense to me:

The ideal case would be to get rid of licensing altogether, to get rid of the broker’s level of licensing or to get rid of the salesperson’s level of licensing and call everyone a broker, but none of that is necessary.

Instead, imagine an IntegratedRealty.com business entity that consists of a franchised brand for fly-you-own-flag brokers or brokerage entities. As the owner of IntegratedRealty.com, I franchise the brand and require certain standards and practices from the franchisees. I maintain offices, so, to all appearances to the public, we’re just like Realty Executives. Except that I am not anyone’s broker, and each individual franchised broker is the head of his or her own Team. They write and own their own contracts, and they’re free to sever their relationship with IntegratedRealty.com per the terms of our contract, with their representation contracts going along with them.

This could be rolled out city-by-city, like Realty Executives, or cross-competitively like RE/Max. Each new instance of IntegratedRealty.com could itself be a franchise, so you could Read more

Understanding How .250 Hitter Out Earns .325 Hitter

I’ll begin by encouraging brokers & agents to read and continue to follow Sean Purcell’s Super Team series. In my opinion it should prove prophetic and timeless. Why? ‘Cuz it’s about bank, and how to add 0’s and commas, the only thing that matters when the score is posted. The rest is like a bunch of artists arguing over being true to their spirit. 🙂

Alrighty then, how is it that there are players who strike out a lot, get 125 hits, and play just OK defense, yet make so much more than those rarely striking out, gettin’ close to 200 hits, and playin’ much better defense? The answer is simple, and it applies big time to real estate agents.

The answer can be found in the answer to another baseball question.

What team wins any baseball game?

A. The team with the most hits.
B. The team making the most spectacular defensive plays.
C. The team with the most runs.
D. The team with the most at bats during the game.

Yeah, we all know the answer. Then why do so many not understand how some .250 hitters could buy and sell .300+ hitters before breakfast is over? Stick with me here, ‘cuz this is hugely important when applied to those working in commission real estate.

Adam Dunn plays for the Reds and makes a staggering $13 Million a year. Incredibly, the guy could figure a way to strike out in a brothel. The season’s barely 2/3 over and he’s already K’d 110 times! That means when the season’s over he’ll have walked back to the dugout in shame over 150 times. $13 Million a year. By the way, since 2004 Mr. Dunn has averaged over 100 runs batted in, yearly. Apparently in baseball runs = bank. Go figure.

He hits .240 — your Aunt Fannie could strike him out on any given day — his defense is, uh, well at least he wears a glove. Yet he makes $13 Million a year. He gets over 500 ‘at bats’ each season. Sometimes over 550.

Let’s look at this through a real estate agent’s eyes. Uh Read more

The New Real Estate Model – Part 3.2: Patrick, Dunne & Purcell, A Real Estate Firm

A Real Estate Firm based on the legal model could have many looks, as do actual law firms.  But for a starting point I am going to lay out an achievable structure that will accommodate the greatest majority of agents.  The firm would consist of three distinct levels as well as an administrative staff.

  1. In the top level are the named agents: let’s say Ms. Patrick, Mr. Dunne and Mr. Purcell. These are the founders of the firm and generally speaking they are all three tremendous rain makers. They have a large and active client base from which they receive a tremendous amount of referral business.  It is also quite likely that one or more of them has a strong presence in a niche area.  They are not only the face of the firm, but it is their style and personality that colors the firm’s corporate vision.
  2. Under the named agents are the partner agents.  It is within this level that we see so much of the communal benefit that Mike Farmer has written about.  Similar to the named agents, partner agents bring in a lot of transactions.  They also may have areas (geographic, industrial, network, etc.) of specialty.  These agents have reached a level reminiscent of tenure.  They share ownership of the firm as well as decision making duties and have a say in its direction.
  3. The associate level is where the greatest number of agents are found.  From fresh beginners to agents with years of experience.  The associate level is also the workhorse of the firm.  Associate agents are not only working hard to take care of clients assigned by the partners, but are at the same time trying to impress the partners with business they generate themselves.  The presumed goal of an associate agent is to be made partner.
  4. Finally, there is an administrative staff which grows as the firm’s growth dictates.  It could be as simple as one administrator or as complex as a multiple level staff covering everything from answering the phones to creating the marketing to processing the transactions and more.  Staffing might be the one place where someone Read more

The New Real Estate Model – Part 3.1: The Solution

This final post (Part 3) grew rather lengthy.  Considering the fact this has already stretched into a three-part series, I chose to extend the series to five rather than attempt a conclusion of  somnolent proportions.  If brevity is the soul of wit, creating a new model for real estate is witless.  So grab a cup of coffee or your favorite bagel and settle in.  Fairly warned be thee, says I…

The Preamble
In Part 1: Disbrokeration, I looked at the problems that exist within the current, brokerage-based real estate model.  The shift to a 2.0 world is making the traditional position of broker obsolete.  The tax advantaged laws that helped create this model now create a drain on the industry and the level of professionalism is widely perceived to be at an all time low.  This is a topic of some concern, as the most popular response to the current state of affairs is more legislation, more licensing and more efforts to validate capability through pernicious membership rather than actual results.  As Big Al said: “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.”

In Part 2: Super Teams, I looked at a natural progression that is already occurring in our industry: Real Estate Teams.  I took that notion further and looked at how a Super Team might be constructed.  There was also a link to some great writing on the concept by Mike Farmer.  There are some problems with the Super Teams though.  They do not go far enough in dealing with issues of independent contractor status, education, professionalism and image.  Their success depends upon either a self-less communal work effort or a strong, unique figurehead to hold all the pieces together.  The former is not realistic across an entire industry and the latter is too uncommon.

The Outline
It is time to outline a new model for the real estate industry.  I believe the following to be a reasonable list of minimum expectations:

  • The new model should account for the natural desire in many people to achieve.  It might even embrace the concept that a great many people enter Read more

New FlexMLS system is a bold stride into the twenty-first century for Phoenix-area Multiple Listings Service

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
New FlexMLS system is a bold stride into the twenty-first century for Phoenix-area Multiple Listings Service

Metropolitan Phoenix got a brand new MLS system this week. MLS is the Multiple Listings Service, the system by which Realtors share their listings with one another. Until this week, the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service had been using a computing system called Tempo to share listings. As of this Monday just past, we have switched to the FlexMLS system.

Had you guessed that something had changed? If your Realtor has been sending you listings from a saved search, or if you had been receiving updates to a Tempo Gateway, all that stopped on Monday morning. Chances are your agent has spent much of this week rewriting searches and reestablishing gateways. The FlexMLS system is more robust than anything we’ve had before, but it’s also quite a bit more complicated. It may take a while before things get back to normal.

So why make the switch? For one very good reason, to tap into that much more robust technology. Tempo permitted a crude kind of map-based search, but FlexMLS allows you to select houses from within multiple non-contiguous irregular polygons. So, as an example, I can search for homes that are either within walking distance of Apollo High School or within walking distance of Valley Metro bus lines servicing Apollo High School.

There’s more: The FlexMLS pricing software is comparable to the tools appraisers use. Realtors will have to stretch themselves to learn how to tap this power, but our Comparative Market Analyses are going to be painstakingly accurate.

But not without some growing pains. ARMLS is by far the largest MLS system FlexMLS has taken on so far. This first week has been a trial for the North Dakota company — a strain on their servers, and, no doubt, a strain on their tech support staff as well.

And workaday Realtors are sharing the pain. No doubt many are grumbling, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” But FlexMLS is a bold stride into the twenty-first century for Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review

Is it just me, or do Fridays keep coming around faster and faster? Maybe it’s because I’m so young!

Any way, it’s time for our “Mortgage Market Week in Review.” We’re going to focus on a couple of main topics for today:

Jobs – the ADP report came out on Wednesday and had some relatively positive news. That brought a lot of people in the markets thinking that the jobs report that came out this morning would be a lot more positive than the markets had been expecting. Well, we got to this morning and it came out “moderate.” The market had expected 70,000 losses and we only got 51000 losses. We had expected 5.6% unemployment and we got 5.7%. So, not too bad, but not too good either. However, I’ve read some technical analysis that said that due to some accounting regulations (known as the birth death of businesses adjustments) these numbers are probably overstating things to the positive. That means that next month, these numbers will probably get revised downward.

Losses – talk about missing a target here, wow. General Motors announced that they lost $15 billion this quarter. Think about it, that’s a lot of money. Even if you take out the “one time” expenses, that is still a LOT of money (like maybe $6 billion, I think the number was.) I read today that GM has now “eaten up” all of their profits that they have made since 1985. That means that a profit and loss statement for the last 23 years for General Motors would end up with a big fat $0. In addition to them, Deutsche Bank announce a 64% drop in profits and Merrill Lynch announced some staggeringly negative numbers too.

House prices made a lot of news this week. Alan Greenspan was talking about them and several others also made a lot of noise about what’s happening with house prices. Check out the chart here to give you a good flavor of the regionality of housing prices and how not all areas are seeing the same numbers.

The Housing BillRead more

Are You Making Music?

I recently attended a birthday party with my two beautiful boys (yes they are the most beautiful boys in the world and no, I am not biased).  The birthday guest of honor received a great many gifts and it was lots of fun.  Save for one interesting observation… an odd note that just might reflect a growing problem many agents face in real estate.  But I am ahead of myself.

In particular, the boys all gathered around a video game (I think it is called Guitar Hero) that comes with drums and a guitar.  You put the DVD in and the TV provides music and a video while the boys watch a visual cue telling them when to strum a chord or bang a drum.  Anyway, they all jumped in and so did I.  (Little kid at heart still…)

Now here is the interesting part.  I did well at that game. I did well because of my athleticism.  I still have very good eye-hand coordination and I pick things up pretty quickly.  In hindsight, maybe that is not so interesting.  But let me add this: I am completely tone deaf and possess no rhythm whatsoever.  My ex-wife used to laugh at me when I clapped my hands or tapped my foot along to some song.  Apparently I was never on the beat.  I tried to tell her I was keeping with the “back beat”… but she wasn’t buying.  In any case, I was the source for a good deal of amusement.  Now imagine: a guy with no beat excelling at a game involving music.

(Stay with me because I am going to tie this all together in a moment.)  A day or two later, I catch an episode of Gene Simmons’ Family Jewels on cable.  If you have not seen this you are missing out on insights from one of the greatest marketers of our time.  In this particular episode Gene’s son, along with some friends, challenge Gene to this very same video game… and kick his rock & roll butt.  Gene decides this is not right.  So he calls his buddies Tommy Read more