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More WP security fun…

A while back, I wrote a post about how my blog was hacked and what I did about it. Turns out it dropped me out of Google for a week or two, but the experience was well worth it. Shortly thereafter, Eric Bramlett posted the solution of setting Google Alerts on your site. (Can’t find it, or I’d link to it). Trace and others had some good comments and suggestions as well. I did what Bramlett suggested and I want to show you an example of how it works.

This morning, I received an alert (one of many that I have on my site), to wit:

Google Web Alert for: site:ericonsearch.com +viagra

High gas prices and online marketing…a correlation? : Southern …
… phentermine shipped tramadol without perscription dopamine phentermine generic cialis pills generic viagra levitra prescribing information valium valium …

This as-it-happens Google Alert is brought to you by Google.

I quickly went and found the offending post(s) and promptly deleted hundreds of “bad neighborhood” links. Nice. And yes. I am making further changes to beef security that I am not going to talk about publicly. Will be happy to share them with you privately one to one if you have been hacked.

The good news about this go around is that we are being PROACTIVE and getting to them before we have to bug Google or other search engines about it. By setting yourself up a boatload of alerts for site:mydomain.com +(insert poker,porn, or pharmaceutical term), you can get ahead of any issues that arise.

If you Google “Indiana SEO” or other similar terms, you will see that as of today’s date, I am still blessed to be doing OK for now.

So if you haven’t taken the time to do this to your blog… Now’s a good time.

And Now, No Reason to Root At All

Last week, while watching the House contort itself in a self-serving round of navel-gazing over the bailout package, I pondered two connotations of their disconnect with the populace.  Taken together they are a question really, that looks at the motivation behind politicians’ decisions; the metaphysical understanding of a Representative if you will.  This question in particular asks why our elected officials vote for legislation they know their constituents are against.  At the time, many of our representatives had chosen not to support the bailout package; not because they were against it – quite the contrary, they wanted to vote for it – no, their problem was their constituents didn’t want it and the election was to close for a nice spin cycle.  So I wondered if they ignored the people who elected them because:

  • …constituents are too stupid to understand

or

  • …constituents are not the ones who pay their bills

Over the weekend I am sad to report the answer became clear.  The majority of America (at least the majority of America who contact their representatives) were against the bailout the first time around.  I had hoped it was due to the fact that middle America was smarter than the politicians and pundits surmised.  But then Wall Street had its little temper tantrum and middle America couldn’t wait for the bailout package to pass.  They told their representatives so with an onslaught of voice mails, emails and snail mails.

Walls Street’s melt down affected every-one’s retirement funds and investment funds and saving funds… if they elected to sell them that day.  Otherwise it made not a wit of difference to the average person on the street who does not expect to need those funds for years yet.  But people panicked anyway.

I learned from this episode a lesson most politicians must learn early in their career.  I learned that middle America did not read up on or have at least a passing understanding of what the bailout meant, nor did they look into and try to understand how Wall Street’s shoe stomping episode actually affected them.  Instead, middle America did what they always do: they Read more

Please Come Again

According to the clock on my dashboard it was 2:43pm – where had my day gone?  – I couldn’t help but wonder.  I had just wrapped up with my client who proudly unveiled the newly renovated rental units at the building he just purchased on Washington Park – the proposed location of the Olympic Stadium if and when Chicago should land the 2016 Summer Games – best described as an “up and coming” part of Chicago’s south side.  He wanted me to see what he had done and wanted my assurance that he could get the units rented at a much higher rent than was usual for the area.  From what I saw – he would have no problem renting the units – for how much?  that was yet to be seen.

I was hungry and I hadn’t had anything to eat – with the exception of the venti Red Eye I’d picked up earlier that morning during my walk with my dogs – breakfast.  I had to be back on the north side of town for a 4:00pm appointment, so I knew I didn’t have time to eat – and there’s scarcely any place to eat nearby the building – or at least that’s what I thought.

Okay forget about lunch – I’ll just pick up a diet Pepsi I figured – I can stop at the Shell station before I pull on to the Dan Ryan to head back north.  As I began my journey, I turned onto one of the wide boulevards lined with overgrown empty lots and neglected buildings.

I wasn’t paying attention to the street names – I was simply heading towards the freeway when I noticed a stand alone convenience store – a building at a nondescript corner at the fringe – on the “other side” of the up and coming neighborhood – not sure where the real boundary lay, but I had the distinct impression it wasn’t “up and coming” any time soon.

I couldn’t help but notice the store – it was the only business operating in several blocks.   I’m sure most could identify with seeing Read more

The Life

I know a guy who makes stupid money. He doesn’t even call it money. He calls it trump.

“I make sick trump,” he once told me. (Stupid money.)

“I have a Hot Mess at home,” he continued. “And she’s sick, too.” (An attractive girlfriend with a drinking problem.)

“It’s ill.” (Troubling.)

According to this guy, a derivatives trader at the Chicago Merc, if you don’t make 30/40 (million per year) you’re not a Whale. (A sick big spender with a lot of trump and at least one Hot Mess at at least one sick home.)

“30/40 is the magic number. You can buy all the whores in Sin City with that kind of trump.” (Duh. Even I figured that and I don’t really have a head for math.)

Not surprisingly, he met his own Hot Mess at the Paris Las Vegas. They were doing ice block Southern Comfort shots (don’t ask) together at a Whale’s private party and decided to hook up for the near, if not immediate, domestic future. He shipped her and her Two Brats back east to Chicago. This guy trades farm futures so I would imagine he knew what he was getting into. Although not risk aversive, he has assured me on more than one occasion that he is not yet a Whale. He’s more than a Chump certainly, but definitely not a Whale.

A Chump is a million dollar a year guy. You are either a Chump, a Whale, or Bank in his world (The Life). Bank trumps Whale. Then Chump. Everyone else is Home Depot. Wonderful.

“No offense,” he tells me, “but the average Joe Home Depot in this country is living paycheck to paycheck. They couldn’t care less when the market goes apeshit. (Apeshit means apeshit. Think about it.) They squawk like they do care but they got no real skin in the game. Bullshit 401K pennies maybe. They got no trump. Joe Home Depot can always find another Home Depot with matching funds to bag nails and pay the bills. A Chump, however, is ruined in an apeshit scenario. The Life is over for him. I know Read more

Other types of credit may be feeling the crunch, but home mortgages are still readily available

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Other types of credit may be feeling the crunch, but home mortgages are still readily available

Bad news about the economy is coming in from all directions, so you may be in the mood for some good news: There is plenty of money available for home loans.

By taking over FannieMae and FreddieMac, the federal government has essentially nationalized the secondary mortgage market. The lenders themselves are still private entities, but the government’s loan guarantees are viewed as being so strong that, by now, virtually all residential real estate loans are coming through Fannie, Freddie, the FHA or the VA.

The other way of saying the same thing: There is virtually no secondary mortgage market left for non-conforming or sub-prime loans.

So while you may have trouble getting new car financing or a loan for your business, you should have no problem getting a home loan — if you qualify and if the amount you’re borrowing falls within the limits set by the four government agencies guaranteeing home loans.

And there’s the rub: For most of the Phoenix area, qualifying for a conforming loan should be no problem. But higher-priced homes are sold with non-conforming “jumbo” loans, which are difficult to obtain right now and come at much higher interest rates.

Using an FHA loan, it is still possible to buy a home with “nothing down.” FHA borrowers are obliged to pay a 3.5% down payment, but this can be offset by the $7,500 tax credit incorporated in the mortgage relief bill passed in July. FHA borrowers can ask the seller for up to 6% in closing costs, so they can take possession of the home for no money out of pocket.

But there’s a catch: To obtain an FHA loan, the home will have to pass a rigorous FHA appraisal, which will eliminate many foreclosed homes unless the seller is willing to correct the most serious defects.

All that notwithstanding, while the financial sky might be roiling with dark clouds, real estate is still a silver lining. Because of the government’s loan guarantees, lenders are willing Read more

Bloodhound Blog Radio: Living in a Post-Bailout World

Last Monday, Sean Purcell and I hosted Top Dawg Greg Swann on Mortgage Mondays on Bloodhound Blog Radio.  We discussed what real estate agents and lenders can do in a post-Bailout world.

The bailout bill passed today after the Senate signaled its support to the House.  President Bush signed this bill into law and the world is safe, once again.

Interesting points in our conversation:

1- The Community Reinvestment Act (original sub-prime loans), conceived in 1977 and super-charged in 1995, was the actual starting point of the “toxic loan” revolution that took our economy down.

2-The Bailout may be an instrument to keep people into homes through the “loansharking collection” principle.

3-Greg talks about his strategy of working with investors (and why it works).

4- Predictions about the convergence of low-priced and mid-priced homes through financing caps.

5- Strategies for REALTORs to find ready, willing (and most importantly) and ABLE clients.

If you run an 8-minute mile, you can get a 10K in while you listen to this on your iPod.  Mere mortals should just download the podcast and try to get 3 miles in on the treadmill whil listening to the three of us.

Listen to the podcast here.

Mortgage Market Week in Review

Well, here we are on Friday again. Are you getting motion sickness from all of the news and rumors that are flying back and forth? Wow has it been another week to forget, hasn’t it?

Here are the topics we’re going to talk about today: The Bailout/Rescue Plan, some very weak economic reports, the credit markets and do bankers really trust each other?

First, there were several economic reports that came out. None of them were good. Here’s a rundown of them:

1. Jobs – the jobs report came out this morning and showed that 159,000 jobs were lost in September. While the number was lower than what the markets expected (they expected 200,000), it was a very weak report.

2. Factory orders came in down 4%. That’s not the direction we’d like them to go.

3. Car Sales fell off a cliff in September. Ford’s sales dropped 35%. Ouch.

4. A couple of reports on personal incomes, personal expenditures and the like came out and they weren’t good.

If these were the only issues that we had, we’d have our hands full and we’d see mortgage rates drop due to the increased weakness in the economy.

But that’s not all. The credit markets have taken a major hit in the last week. What’s happening with that? A couple of brief highlights:

1. Banks are very concerned about running out of money (capital). Wachovia (more on this later) and Washington Mutual have been “bought out” to keep them from going under. Other banks are concerned that the losses they are experiencing will not enable them to keep their capital ratios where they should be. Due to that, there is an increasing reluctance to lend to commercial customers and to lend to consumers. How bad is it? I’ve heard a variety of conflicting reports. What I can say from personal experience is that for people (consumers, not businesses) who have the following: 1) Some equity in the Read more

Deregulation is the New Regulation

From the Wayback Vault in The New York Times Building:

Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.

In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates — anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans.

”Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990’s by reducing down payment requirements,” said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae’s chairman and chief executive officer. ”Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.”

Some Lessons I’ve Learned From The Credit Meltdown:

(1) Borrowers who can’t meet prime underwriting guidelines are “sub” prime

(2) When government regulates private industry to make crappy loans and the crappy loans are the cause of the crisis, you can’t blame the theory of deregulation; you must levy the blame at overregulation.

In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups.

(3) When you move down the credit and income scale, you can expect more defaults.

Here’s Senator Obama, talking about his solution:

Finally, I will modernize our outdated financial regulations and put in place the common-sense rules of the road I’ve been calling for since March – rules that will keep our market free, fair, and honest; rules that will restore accountability and responsibility in the boardroom, and make sure Wall Street can never get away with the Read more

Making the Riccelli bet to take away the fear of trying something new

Richard Riccelli doesn’t write here very much, but, when he does, it’s pure gold. I’ve been writing in BloodhoundBlog about Richard since the blog was young, as have others, and Richard has been writing with us for as long as we’ve been a group blog. I can’t sing his praises enough. I’m sure I can’t even see nine-tenths of his genius, but I am forevermore enthralled by what I can see.

A peculiar aspect of Richard’s brilliance is his uncanny ability to identify and excise the deal-killing objection. In his own marketing business, his fees can run dauntingly high. Don’t want to pay? No problem. If he loves the project, Richard will work for a cut of the take instead. This is unheard of in direct marketing, and the shear audacity of it can silence every other objection he might hear from his clients. How can you argue with free?

For months now I’ve been playing with Riccelli-style direct marketing ideas at ABetterListing.com. The site’s not done yet. Taking account of testing, it will never be done. But it takes on its first big market test tomorrow.

This is the back of an open house invitation card for a house we’ll be listing next Friday:

Cathleen and her crew of energetic teenagers will be distributing 2,500 of those cards this weekend, with another 2,500 going out next weekend. The whole launch is a Very Big Deal since the house we’re listing falls into the Jumbo Zone — where desire is unlimited and loans are unavailable.

But ABetterListing.com was built for this kind of door-to-door direct marketing promotion, and the promotion itself is built around a Riccelli bet: We’re betting that we’re better than anyone else you’ll talk to, and we’ll pay off on the bet if you don’t agree.

An even better Riccelli bet would be this: “If we don’t get you a contract within 30 days, we’ll sell it for free!” Unfortunately, in the neighborhood we’re working in, homes are selling in 267 days — on average — when they sell at all. We’ll save that offer for a better market.

I’ll talk more about ABetterListing.com another Read more

2009 started yesterday…

One of the coolest parts about my job is that I get to hang out with some of the best REALTORS that Louisville has. That’s not hyperbole. I am not blowing sunshine up anyone’s hindquarters. It is simply the truth. Often, when I am lost in my own thoughts or troubles, or in solving the latest issue at the office, or maybe even worrying a little too much about the latest market news, one of these great people will snap me out it.

Case in point.

Michael Higdon is one of the agents in our office. He dropped by on Tuesday, and plopped down in a chair across from my desk. “2009 starts tomorrow, and nobody around here knows it.”, he announced.
“At least they are not acting like it.” It kept coming. “They are gonna slow down…do less prospecting…when what we are doing today will be the checks that get cashed in January.”

*2009 starts Wednesday, October 1.” he said with finality.

My first response (in my own mind) was “That’s a great way of mentally overcoming all of the negativity.” (I did not say it out loud, but my mind was still churning on the fact that my wife had just called with an plumbing issue at home, I had not finished up the taxes, the incessant bad economic news, a 5 year old nephew that had just been diagnosed with leukemia, and a myriad of other issues….the same ones that ALL of us have).

He went on to chat with me about some of the things he was doing to CREATE the RESULTS and the WORLD that he desires for himself and his family (and more importantly how he was going to not let the outside world be the arbiter of his efforts). Bottomline: He was taking ACTION. As my mind let go of the troubles of the moment, I started to focus more clearly on the IMPORTANT things that needed to be done. I gained some clarity that rather than worrying about the stuff I could not control, I could turn the knobs that I was able to and, as a result, create Read more

Zillow.com creates a directory of real estate agents who can’t sell

Okay here’s the good news: You have another opportunity to garner a do-follow link from Zillow.com.

And here’s the bad news: For that link to do you any good, your best bet is to be a really bad listing agent. The more listings you can accumulate on Zillow.com — which implies listings that don’t sell — the higher your ranking among your peers.

Yikes!

Or: Too frolicking stoopid…

Zillow’s Professional Directory is new as of this night, so — who knows? — maybe it will get better. In the neighborhoods we understand, it’s an exceptionally valuable glimpse into the world of lister dysfunction: Who can’t sell how much real estate how slowly? If you want to know for sure who cannot sell the greatest quantity of real properties over the longest spans of time, Zillow.com has the answer.

It gets worse: The “Top Zillow All-Stars” are, for the most part, bubbleheads. Everything is measured by contributions, where what Einstein does and a cat-box deposit are equally “contributions” — equally additions to Zillow.com’s great big cat-box of crap.

This is wicked-dumb, far dumber than the usual agent-rating schemes. Where those other “tools” can be gamed, Zillow’s system is based on measuring, first, a meaningless metric, and, second, by actually rewarding incompetence. Quantity not only is not quality, the number of listings a Realtor is carrying is very often a negative indicator — a symptom not of quality performance but of its absence.

Even acknowledging this, measuring velocity of turnover would not improve things, particularly since this is a metric that could be gamed. And even adding in true — meaning verified — list price to sales price ratios might not be enough. Readers here can correct me if they think I’m wrong, but I don’t think there is any reliable, objective way to rank Realtors by quality of performance.

And that’s as may be. It remains that graduating them by their inability to move product is inarguably a terrible way to rank real estate agents. The Professional Directory is a truly amazingly tone-deaf addition to Zillow.com.

As you might have deduced by my absence from these environs, I am very, very Read more

A Look past the hyperbole of “The Great Depression”

My Grandmother is 89. In 1929, she was 10, living in Duquesne, PA, a steel mill town not far from Pittsburgh.

Grandma is still a story teller, although Alzheimer’s has mixed up the palette of her recollections, which makes for some interesting mash ups. Before Grandma’s synapses got all Web 2.0, it was the Depression stories that fascinated me the most.

They were even better than the WWII stories, which were pretty good because she worked in an ammunition factory, but that’s a story for another crisis.

All of Grandma’s Depression stories, from the time a truck carrying oranges jackknifed on the road right before Christmas, to the beautiful indoor pool, gym and library that Carnegie built (where Aunt Emma secretly played basketball), to the truant officer chasing down Uncle Joe, all of them had a three-part moral:

  1. We were dirt poor.
  2. You don’t ever want to be that poor.
  3. Save your money just in case anything like that happens again.

As I got older, I started to understand how being a “Child of the Depression” had molded my Grandmother. The bargain shopping. Walking across the parking lot of the A&P stooped over not because of age, but because she was looking for dropped change. The look of disbelief Christmas morning when my brother and I sat in a pile of un-boxed toys surrounded by shreds of wrapping paper a foot thick, looking for more.

The lingering impact that living through the Depression had on my Grandmother used to interest me as an exercise of amateur psychology, a topic I’d toss around with my parents to show them they got something for the four years I spent doing keg-stands at URI: She was conditioned. Using a tea bag twice is a mild sort of PTSD. Aren’t I clever?

I don’t feel so clever, now. Now I’m recalling Grandma’s somewhat more reliable pre-Alzheiner’s stories looking for tips, or hope, or something…She did always say, poor as they were, they were happy. That’s something, right?

This morning a friend forwarded me a link to something that is on the Wikkipedia page for The Great Depression, a page that probably has gotten more traffic Read more

It Takes The RIGHT Kind Of Village

Years ago, when my kids began asking questions about presidential campaigns it became necessary to sit down with them, explaining the foundational beliefs of the two basic ways of thinking in our country. The first of these talks took place with my son, (now the Brown who’s after the ‘and’) ’92 when he was a 12 year old middle schooler, during the presidential campaign. Later, at about the same point in the ’96 presidential race, the talk was repeated with his sister.

Here’s how I explained the difference between the two belief systems. Would love your thoughts. (Ready Pandora?)

A thousand years ago there was a river hundreds of miles long. Two villages were located on the river, but were totally unaware of each other’s existence. Both villages were based upon the water and fish provided by the river.

The first village discovered they had families among them who weren’t doing as well as most others. Today we call those folks, poor. The leaders cared greatly for all the villagers, so this couldn’t be ignored. What to do? They decided the solution was simple.

They went to the best 20% of fishermen in the village and demanded much of their catch be given at no cost to those who were having ‘bad luck’ fishing. Any of these 20% who refused were visited again by the leaders, this time armed with spears and knives. The message was received, and the fish was given away to those who couldn’t or wouldn’t get the job done.

Over time, the most talented fishermen and their families stopped catching so many fish, as having ‘extra’ had become a painful experience. Since they didn’t ‘need’ any more fish, they simply caught just a little more than they necessary to keep their family well fed. They had tired of fishing for others.

The second village had the same problem — there was a small percentage of families who just weren’t makin’ it. The leaders got together and came upon the solution they would employ. They invited the village’s best fishermen to meet with them. They asked these elite fishermen if they’d Read more

How To Guarantee A Plethora of Future Bailouts:

Pass this one…and many many more will follow.

Hell, even the stuff already enacted by fiat guarantees that failure is emboldened.

And soon, every single industry will come crying with their hand out.   Even the hint of passing this one–and the beginnings of it have had the auto industry lining up to start sucking at the teet (or if you believe as I believe, plunging their fangs into the neck) of our worker.   Fear will be the ultimate arbiter.   We have–perhaps too briefly–stood up to the extortion of the unknown for a day or two.  But more folks will come at us with ‘for our own good’ legislation in many forms.

They’ll claim calamity, and they’ll siphon more and more of our power.   The problem that we have is that we’re getting smarter|faster|better & more productive.   We’re creating more to steal, and we still are mollified by an increasing standard of living.   We’re currently creating wealth, knowledge and joy faster than the thieves can steal from us.   And I am glad for it, but I wonder how much we’d accomplish if the stealing wasn’t happening.   What progress has been stolen because of the siphoning off of half or more of our growth, passion, power and love?

It’s not a time where we can blame the seekers of social justice on the left side of the aisle.  The Republicans still rhetorically endorse some ideas of liberty, but in practice, they have been devouring us faster than the liberals.   Government grows and it becomes corrupt when it gains in power.   And seriously, how much cancer is too much?   Even a little must be shocked and starved.

Those in our industry–and I’m talking to anyone lining up at the trough for bailout money–that purport tht they are better equipped to dispense with the fruits of my labor than me…how dare you.  You financiers that tried to maximize risk, knowing full well that the Government would bail you out…you have colluded to weaken the freest society in history.  Mankind has lived thousands of years in bondage and serfdom, and you’ve put us on that path.

Trust and credibility civiity and citizenship Read more