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Category: Zillow.com (page 12 of 13)

A Zillow.com dead pool . . . ?

real estate 2.x:

If the real estate market continues downward, do you think Zillow’s traffic will go up? I am pretty sure that Zillow’s traffic will be directly related to property prices. Everyone loves to see how much money they are making — it is fun, but most people are not going logon each day to watch their zestimate go down (accurate or not). Personally, I find the site quite boring…one visit seems like enough.

My fourth question would be — if the validity of their purpose has been picked apart, and their revenue model is full of fatal flaws — when do they run out of money?

Maybe we should start a pool?

I’m thinking they probably have a business, if only because Realtors will always throw away money on advertising that is easy but useless. On the other hand, I’m suddenly flush with play money

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Zillow gets the address right . . .

You can’t be too careful. So, when I received a call from a man who introduced himself as the appraiser for my client’s condo, which is under contract for an October close, I wanted some proof he was who he said he was. My client is a pretty young woman who lives on her own, so I don’t give out her phone number indiscriminately. I confirmed the inspector’s information with the Arizona Board of Appraisals and my client scheduled an appointment for this past Saturday, when she could be home and grant him access herself.

I just heard from the appraiser. He thought it was strange when he got to the condo that no one was home. But, the door was open. He figured the owner had had to run out unexpectedly, so he let himself in. He hadn’t expected the distinctly masculine decor and level of housekeeping he discovered as he went through the home, and was especially surprised by the absence of women’s clothing but abundance of men’s when he opened the closets, but we’re an enlightened society…

The good news, he reported, was that the home appraised for the sales price.

The bad news was that he had appraised the wrong condo!

So Zillow might not have the accuracy advantage of feet on the ground, but, up in its ivory tower, it gets the address right!

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ZillowNews round-up . . .

Under the Zillow: The Tax-man cometh…

My two favorite bits, in two days of coverage:

Lenderama doesn’t need accuracy, he needs a Zillow-based tickler to stay in front of his clients.

MyZillow allows you to make “estimates” of what a property is worth. The estimate takes Zillow’s data and adjusts for specific information you know about the home. Then they generate a monthly email letting you know what those values are doing, while adjusting for your estimate.

Mortgage Brokers are in a unique position to make these estimates in a way that real estate agents cannot. Every time a broker does a refi, they can use the appraisal to work up the estimate to match the real value. Then you can save that estimate in MyZillow. You get a monthly report on that homes value. Now you know about how much the home has appreciated, and how much of the mortgage is likely paid off. With this data, you have a pretty good idea of your existing client base’s equity, and can market to them accordingly.

Based on this information, you could send out reminders that they may have reached 80% LTV, and should look into getting their MI dropped. Or, you could send out offers on HELOC’s, or Cash Outs. You could give them a heads up that properties are dropping in their neighborhood. Whatever you do, it’s just another way to help keep in touch with past (and hopefully future) clients.

Sheer brilliance.

And Sellsius&176; points out that Zillow.com has drawn a bright red circle around its own Achilles’ Heel:

If an owner gets to change the zestimate, guess what? It sits there right next to Zillow’s. Now what? Now we really need a professional more than ever to untangle these worms.

Overnight Zillow has gone from a veil of pseudo-scientific infallibility to a side-by-side pissing contest that can only be settled by a professional referee.

Nice going…

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Zillow.com bites the wrong bullet: In preference to telling one simple truth, it will propagate thousands of tiny lies . . .

Here’s a simple fact, one of the most important reasons why homeowners need professional representation to market their houses: Diogenes himself could not find an objective seller. It’s not enough to detail everything that’s wrong with the neighbor’s homes, the more important job, in a listing appointment, is to tell the Realtor why this home is worth much more than mere facts would indicate. The average American is slightly above average, and the average American bathroom remodel is worth tens of thousands of dollars more than you ever might have guessed.

This is to be expected. It’s simply not in our nature to discount for subjectivity where we are most in need of such a discounting. My kid’s smarter than your kid, and Helen herself is but a shadow to my best-beloved. This is only too human.

So: Zillow.com has a problem. People treat its silly Zestimates as though they were appraisals, even though anyone should know they can’t be appraisals. You could say caveat lector, but readers of Zillow.com’s web site have to dig pretty deep to find any caveats. What they find instead are big type and goofy pictures entreating you to… treat its silly Zestimates as though they were appraisals…

There is an obvious solution to this problem: Put up a disclaimer in even bigger type that says: “Ahem! A silly Zestimate is not an appraisal, which cannot be done without an objective, on-site inspection of a property.” That would be honest, and it would be sufficient to advise Zillow.com users that an Automated Valuation Method cannot reliably establish the value of real property.

This they will not do, possibly because it would cause those users to wonder why the hell they’re bothering with a tool that is admittedly useless. So rather than admit the nakedly obvious truth, Zillow.com has elected instead to propagate thousands of tiny lies.

In a comment posted here on September 1, David G. from Zillow.com broke this news:

Lastly, just a heads-up that we’ve decided to let homeowners edit and publish corrected home facts on Zillow.

That shoe finally dropped last night. Rich Barton, Zillow.com’s chairman and CEO, made the Read more

Ask the Broker: Where can you go to get the most accurate estimates for real estate?

Who can best judge what a piece of real property will sell for?

We all know the answer to that: The best estimate of the value of real estate will come from an experienced real estate appraiser, preferably one with a lot of experience in the neighborhood where the subject property is found.

After that, a Broker’s Price Opinion — same stipulations — will come second. In certain very homogenous neighborhoods, a Broker’s Price Opinion may be just as accurate as a full appraisal — and a lot cheaper.

Third place belongs to an experienced agent’s Comparative/Competitive Market Analysis. This can be very accurate in homogenous neighborhoods, substantially less so in areas where the homes or lots differ significantly from property to property.

Last place goes to the results produced by an Automated Valuation Method such as Zillow.com or NetValueCentral.com in the Phoenix area. I have written a lot about the defects in Zillow’s methods and practices, as has Sellsius&176; Real Estate blog. The Cliff’s Notes: An AVM does not evaluate houses, but rather statistics and records about houses. It cannot, for an extreme example, tell you whether the house is still there at the time of the evaluation.

It is fairly common to hear people say that AVMs will get more accurate in time. In fact, there is a finite limit to how much they can be improved. A CMA is essentially an all-paper calculation, with no inspection of the property on the ground. But a CMA is produced by an agent who has a great deal of on-the-ground experience, most of which will never be encoded into an AVM’s software. And nothing that would be considered an unzillowable factor — landscaping, decor, orientation, views, etc. — can ever be automatically accounted for by an AVM.

But: The other end of this question is need versus costs. If you want to know what your supervisor’s house is worth — use Zillow.com. It costs nothing, and close enough is good enough. If you need to know what to offer on a house you want to buy, you need a CMA at least. The good news is, your Read more

Incremental movement toward a blanket Zillow.com disclaimer?

Today brings a game effort by David Gibbons of Zillow Blog to address Zillow.com’s disclosure/disclaimer issue. The problem for me is that the material he cites is at least one click deeper than where he puts is and two clicks deeper than where it should be. Even worse, the page he cites makes even more extravagant indefensible claims than does the Zillow.com home page.

This much, snipped together from David’s text

A Zestimate is really a starting point in figuring out the true value of a house. A Zestimate is not an appraisal.

would be perfectly adequate — if it were placed prominently on the Zillow.com home page and any page from which a Zestimate can be run. Of course, the extravagant claims would need a pruning, too…

But: This is incremental progress, movement in the right direction. Good on ya’, David!

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Shadowing Zillow, filleting Redfin, and a “Just Plane Smart” approach to change in the real estate business . . .

Dustin at Rain City Guide is giving stat-dancing lessons today. I am neither as talented nor as interested as he is, but I do have an interesting statistic to reveal: Debunking Zillow.com is averaging well over 100 unique hits a day. All of my extended Zillow rants do very well, and Debunking Zillow.com comes in third if you Google on “zillow.com” — which many visitors to BloodhoundBlog are doing every day. It pays to keep things in perspective: Our Zillow traffic can’t hold a candle to that which is landing directly on Zillow.com. But for anyone looking for a second-opinion, and apparently many people are, it’s right there on the shelf next to the branded product.

There are two memes I hear all the time in the disintermediation debate that I think are incorrect. The first is the implication that anyone who expresses a skeptical or negative view of one or more of the dot.com RealtyBots is either an actual luddite or is in some way frightened by technology, disintermediation or simply change in any form. The second is the idea that disintermediation in the real estate industry will — or will not — take the course followed by travel agencies and stock brokerages.

For the first meme, I can discern no evidence whatever. It’s a caricature composed of characterizations rather than quotations with supporting links. Surely I would qualify as a technophile of at least the second rank, and my objections to Zillow.com and Redfin.com have nothing to do with technology, fear or even the idea of disintermediation as such. Zillow.com is deceptive in its portrayal of what it can and cannot do, and Redfin.com is a cowbird that incubates its buyer representation commissions in the listing agent’s nest. I am one of the most pro-innovation Realtors on the planet — and, in case you didn’t notice, yesterday I proposed an innovation that will, as a secondary consequence, obviate Redfin.com’s current business model. What I am opposed to — and what every honest person should be opposed to — is unethical behavior.

For the second meme, I think both the “will” and “will Read more

Zindicated! Is this Zillowed seller proof of the need for even greater Zillification?

Frankly, no.

Christine at NY Houses 4 Sale cites a Realty Times article about a seller who immediately pulled his home off the market after a prospective buyer confronted him with a Zestimate $500,000 below his assessed value. His conclusion is that Zillow.com has made his home unmarketable.

My first reaction is simply to say, “Hysterical much?”

I think Zillow.com misleads consumers by implying that its Automated Valuation Method is a valid and useful way of pricing homes, but I can’t believe that there is any report or document produced by Zillow.com that cannot be completely dispensed with by saying, “Are you utterly daft? If you can buy a house in this neighborhood for half-a-million under market, I’ll help you move in. Now get serious or get lost.” On my planet we call that negotiation.

At NY Houses for Sale, Christine writes:

I am sure that soon there will be more and more complaints and I am also sure that as the market continues to change more and more buyers will be “Zillowing” their neighbor, mothers, brothers, sisters and friends houses. Just as I am sure of those things – I am VERY sure that there will be many buyers coming into homes that are listed claiming that they are over priced. But here is my answer.. “The house is NOT over priced – your Zestimate is UNDER priced”.

And all that will be great. Zillow.com wears a media-conferred halo right now. The more people talk about the incredible, obvious, bone-headed mistakes Zillow cannot help but make, the less people will rely on it — or affect to rely on it. At some point Zillow may elect to tell the truth in no uncertain terms about what an AVM can and cannot do — in order to retain at least a shred of credibility.

But as for this seller: Grow up, cowboy. If there were no Zestimates, the buyer would have tried a different lowball tactic. If you want your house to sell, pay $300 for a spot appraisal, price you home at or below it, and leave a copy of the full appraisal report Read more

A Zillified real estate brokerage: If you lay down with dogs, you wake up with fleas . . .

The other week I had a warm call off of our web site from a potential seller. I took his information over the phone, then talked a little about objectives and time-frames. I told him we would get back to him later in the day. I comped the house and read the listings history, including a cancelled listing earlier this year. My gut feeling was that the seller was way over on price, especially for this market, but I hadn’t seen the home to know for sure (ahem).

I had to show, so Cathy did a drive-by on the home, and on the basis of that, she decided that we could not do the listing: Non-homogenous use of the land, over-improved and over-priced.

She called the seller to tell him we were taking a pass, and he was shocked. He didn’t quite come out and say so, but it was clear to Cathy that he had been under the impression that a Realtor would take just about any listing. In brutal language — that all Realtors are whores.

We are not. We turn down more listings than we take, and absolutely everything has to make sense before we will take a listing. We spend a lot of time and money to make our homes sell, and we lose a lot in reputation if they don’t. This is marketing, not peddling — and not pandering.

That leads to this: Joel Burslem reports on Zillow.com’s latest conquest: Prudential California/Nevada Realty. Joel offers this:

Does this mean the real estate industry is prepared to accept Zillow as the final authority on home values? I’m sure Greg over at BloodhoundBlog will have something to say about all of this.

In answer to the question, of course that is not what they’re doing at all. As with the daily newspaper, a citadel of fact except for the horoscope column, what they’re doing is pandering to the masses — whom they regard as morons, which opinion is betrayed by the pandering.

The truth is, I have no problem with Zillow.com if it is properly understood as an Automated Valuation Model, to be used with Read more

If Zillow.com succeeds, who will have failed?

Daniel Rothamel at the Charlottesville Area Real Estate Blog hauls out that heirloom Virginia horsewhip. But is it Zillow.com he’s flaying?

If a customer were to call me and ask for a property valuation, or Comparative Market Analysis (CMA), and I responded by saying, “Sure, I can do that. I think you should know, however, that there is a 38% chance that I am going to be off by at least 10%,” I would expect that person to hang up on me and find another Realtor. If I continued to do this with every customer with whom I came in contact, I would very quickly find myself looking for another profession.

The founders of Zillow.com, Rich Barton and Lloyd Frink, were also the founders of travel site, Expedia.com. Do you think Expedia.com would still exist if it told customers that sure, they can book a travel package on the site, but 38% of the time, we will tell you the wrong price of your trip by at least 10%?

More:

Zillow will never be right. It isn’t capable of being right. It can’t see properties, and even self-reported data on a subject property won’t help, because it doesn’t have equivalent data on comparable properties. This will ALWAYS be a shortcoming of Zillow. And it is just the most glaring on a very long list.

And the peroration — cover your backside:

If enough of these people buy into the Zillow lie, then I suppose Zillow could become authoritative. The people who would be held responsible for such a tragedy would be the hard-working real estate professionals who know better. It is our responsibility to educate the public about property valuations, and the danger that lurks behind Zillow. The only reason that Zillow will EVER become an legitimate authority is if real estate professionals sit idly by and let that occur.

For all of me, I can’t figure out why the appraisers aren’t leading this charge. In any case, there is much more in Daniel’s post. Read the whole thing.

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Zillow.com versus the truth: Why it matters . . .

This was in a comment, but I’m pulling it out because I think it’s important:

A Zestimate cannot be “off” or “on”. It cannot be accurate or inaccurate. What is being evaluated is not a house but statistics and documents about that house. As I have demonstrated, the Zestimated house may not even be there. The results can have a greater or lesser correspondence to reality — which attribute is equally true of astrology — but a Zestimate is not a statement about reality. This issue is not whether or not the Zestimate is more or less correspondent to reality. The issue is whether it is wise to substitute calculations based upon statistics and documents about a house for an actual, objective, on-site evaluation of that house. This is a determination an informed party — such as a mortgage lender — can make at his own peril. To induce ordinary haphazardly-informed consumers to do so strikes me as being fraudulent.

Why does it matter? From another comment:

Here are some good ol’ boys in Texas who are using Zillow.com to milk the rubes. They’re responsible for their own behavior, of course, but who made it possible?

The fact is, this scheme is only possible because Zillow.com has represented itself as an authoritative source when the principals of the company know that is untrue. The people running this game can gull the public because the public comes to them having been pre-gulled by Zillow.com.

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Conjurers confounded: Reality is what it is . . .

Joel Burslem:

If enough people believe their Zestimate to be true (consumers, journalists, realtors, whomever) – then reality really can be altered. It just shows how malleable the wisdom of the crowds really is.

Oh, good grief… Consciousness does not cause reality.

The meta-topic is interesting, however, first because it highlights one of the more pernicious aspects of Web 2.0, the idea of collective wisdom, and second because it brings out one of the better features of Web 2.0, the ferocious pursuit of canonical truth.

In the first case, the social web is largely harmless, even if its epistemology is absurd. The nonsense Joel Burslem is citing would be dangerous — and assuming that he is not actually joking — if it actually came to pass, but this seems hugely unlikely. One of the subterranean tenets of Post-Modernism is the subtly communicated dictum that nothing matters until it does. David Letterman does not chuckle when you back into his car. The owners of Zillow.com will not buy or sell real property on the basis of their own dubious Zestimates. In any real-life real estate transaction, if one party loves the Zestimate, then the other necessarily hates it. If people labor in error, in Wikipedia or elsewhere, it is because they believe the marginal cost of improving their knowledge of reality exceeds the marginal benefit of having done so — which calculation may itself be in error.

So what falls out? It is possible that people directly involved in real estate transactions may decide that the cost of pursuing a better alternative to Zillow exceeds the benefit. This seems doubtful to me, but we can stipulate the point for the sake of the argument. Even so, their doing so will not have “altered” reality. Zillow will still and always be unable to report the most important fact about the structure — is it still there? — at the time of the Zestimation. To agree to decide something by a means that is known to be fundamentally defective but which is nevertheless mutually-acceptable to the parties is not metaphysically dispositive, despite the fabulist hyperbole we hear everywhere. The Read more