So much of the country hasn’t experienced the 15-40% annual appreciation rates places like San Diego have experienced several times. Regardless of the down times, we’ve learned she always comes back smiling. The market? In the end, she would always love us. She always has. Though at times she could lash out, she always made up for it with lavish gifts of abundant appreciation. That may still be the case in regions like SoCal, but it’s my belief it won’t include the vast majority of residential income property.
There are several reasons allowing investors to conclude this. I wrote about many of those reasons in over at my place, adding a video for fun.
First and foremost, developers paid attention in eighth grade math class. They can make $X building duplexes or fourplexes and the like OR $X+ building condos/townhomes OR $X+++ building single family residences — and all on the same piece of dirt. Go figure, they chose to build where they found the most profit. This has been happening in places like San Diego since the ’80’s.
The only residential income product built since then has been recently. It’s been concentrated on the coast and upper income locations with rents that are incredibly high. These newish projects are not competition, nor do they have any positive affect on the values, rents, or vacancy rates of 35 year old duplexes. Duh.
An example is a new place offering 1 bedroom apartments for twice the rent of competition half a mile away. Twice as much. They also offer their tenants everything but a Friday night date — something I’m sure they’ll correct upon reading this.
The point is that the market? She’s left you. And she ain’t coming back no matter how much you turn on the old charm. When investors have the choice of putting less than 35-50% down just to break even, they’ll do it. The party’s over. Capital flows to the best returns. Duh. So why do folks in places like uh, the west coast for instance, insist things will revert to the status quo they’ve relied upon for so Read more