There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Retirement (page 2 of 2)

Are You Still Waiting For Her To Come Back?

So much of the country hasn’t experienced the 15-40% annual appreciation rates places like San Diego have experienced several times. Regardless of the down times, we’ve learned she always comes back smiling. The market? In the end, she would always love us. She always has. Though at times she could lash out, she always made up for it with lavish gifts of abundant appreciation. That may still be the case in regions like SoCal, but it’s my belief it won’t include the vast majority of residential income property.

There are several reasons allowing investors to conclude this. I wrote about many of those reasons in over at my place, adding a video for fun.

First and foremost, developers paid attention in eighth grade math class. They can make $X building duplexes or fourplexes and the like OR $X+ building condos/townhomes OR $X+++ building single family residences — and all on the same piece of dirt. Go figure, they chose to build where they found the most profit. This has been happening in places like San Diego since the ’80’s.

The only residential income product built since then has been recently. It’s been concentrated on the coast and upper income locations with rents that are incredibly high. These newish projects are not competition, nor do they have any positive affect on the values, rents, or vacancy rates of 35 year old duplexes. Duh.

An example is a new place offering 1 bedroom apartments for twice the rent of competition half a mile away. Twice as much. They also offer their tenants everything but a Friday night date — something I’m sure they’ll correct upon reading this.

The point is that the market? She’s left you. And she ain’t coming back no matter how much you turn on the old charm. When investors have the choice of putting less than 35-50% down just to break even, they’ll do it. The party’s over. Capital flows to the best returns. Duh. So why do folks in places like uh, the west coast for instance, insist things will revert to the status quo they’ve relied upon for so Read more

Confronting Death – The Last Lecture

A very good friend of mine, Gordon Smith sent me an email a few days ago. Later that day, when I spoke to him he told me about when the doctor told him that life_after_deathhe had good news and bad news. The doctor told Gordon that he had incurable cancer. Gordon responded, “What is the bad news?”. Here is a copy of that email:

Hello,

I just wanted to let you know that I was diagnosed with Leukemia, and had it confirmed last week. The kind of news you just LOVE to get.

It’s not going to kill me next week or anything that dramatic, but obviously is of concern. (I literally just got off the phone with a local publisher who was asking me about writing a column. I suggested “The lighter side of Leukemia.” He laughed, but did not make a commitment to it.)

I want to thank ALL my family and friends because I’ve been so fortunate in knowing and loving you. May I confess?….. I am EXTREMELY fond of you.

I am fortunate that I have so many people that I love and that love me. I’m really not terribly upset by this diagnosis or what it potentially portends, because I HAVE had such great people in my life. Maybe I’m whistling past the graveyard, as they say, but so far I’m doing fine.

I don’t expect condolences, etc. It’s always hard to find words for that sort of thing anyway, and you have always made me feel pretty appreciated. I know how much you care! ‘Nuff said on that count. (However, I do NOT mean to discourage anyone inclined to send a handsome cash stipend.)

At any rate, thanks for all you have been in my life. (The terms love and laughter come to mind. God, it sounds like a farewell, and it’s not.) Just wanted to let you know what is going on with me.

I plan on being around for awhile…a very long while.

Gordon

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It reminded me of a truly remarkable video I have seen several versions of: Dr. Randy Pausch’s last lecture. It is one of the most Read more

Realtor Porn?

What makes the following email “interesting” is I received several copies of it – at different email addresses – each of those addresses one that was was part of a purchased list of email addresses of Realtors.

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David Slaton [davidslaton@megared.net.mx]

Adult Website Investment Opportunity

To Whom it May Concern:

We would like to offer you an investment opportunity in an adult website. If you are interested in making truly substantial profits, write us back with your name and phone number and we will have a representative contact you and explain all of the details to you.

Sincerely,
David Slaton
CBM Media

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Doing a Google search of CBM Media I found this site. Nice looking site but the only Realtor porn I’m interested in is the accidental type, like this:

Real Estate Porn

Is There Actually A Sky Up There Anymore?

I listen to misery and woe almost daily. There are plenty of Chicken Littles out there reporting that the sky is falling. And it is! There’s no doubt that the real estate market is in the tank in many places in the country. It certainly is in my neck of the woods. The question needs to be not, “Why is the sky falling?” or “Is the sky actually going to touch the ground?” or even “Is there a sky any more?” but “What do I do with this new reality?”

In my market, equity is a very rare thing. The area that I service primarily is a relatively new area of metro-Phoenix. So new, in fact, that there are very few people who have any equity left. Unfortunately, many of them are throwing up their collective hands, and thinking something like this:

“My house in not worth anywhere near what I paid for it. It will not be worth what I paid for it for a very long time.  There are tremendous houses out there that are much better, much bigger, and more upgraded than mine, that are offered for sale for way, way less than I owe on my house.  Let’s see. . .I’m paying $2500 per month on my mortgage. The market is glutted with rental properties that are better than mine, and I can rent them for about $1,000 per month. Think of the money I’ll save! It makes financial sense for me to kick my house to the curb, go rent a better one for half-price, let the market continue to go into the tank, then buy a better one a few years down the road. What will I lose? My credit? Credit comes back. My mortgage interest deduction? Pah. . .a measly sum compaired to what I’ll save each month on payments. Sounds like a plan to me. . .”

An unethical plan? Sure, but one that is ultimately appealing. Who said unethical was synonymous with unappealing? This is just the people who are manufacturing a crisis to get out of an unfavorable position. There are plenty who are facing a real Read more

Want A Retirement The Equivalent Of House Arrest? Grandpa Economics Is Your Best Bet

For years I’ve put forth the principle of Grandpa Economics. I coined the phrase years and years ago. Stated simply — Relying on savings + a free and clear home + Social Security will land you in the poor house not too many years after your retirement party is long forgotten.

The solution? Understand Grandpa lived in a world playing by starkly different rules. Those rules haven’t applied since 1980. The template now calls for investing with a prudent, thoughtful Plan — using a long term, or big picture view. I prefer real estate. Duh. Frankly, whatever floats your boat and gets you to retirement with a big enough pot of gold, will do the trick.

As I say over and over it seems lately — nobody gives a damn how the cat was skinned, until they find out if the cat was skinned. If you hit retirement with a basket of capital/equity requiring two commas, and preferably beginning with a ‘2’ — you’ve skinned the cat. 🙂

The Boss is always on the lookout for helpful posts and articles. She hit platinum pay dirt with a story put out by AP concerning a victim of Grandpa Economics. Today I published an in depth post based on AP’s article. The post points out the empirical, what I’d say are the predictable consequences of following Grandpa’s path to retirement.

For the skeptics who often wonder why I’m so passionate about this topic, read the post and ask yourself how your own parents and/or grandparents are currently faring. I hope they’re in the ‘high grass’. If not, are they fine due to their own efforts, or because you’re steppin’ up to the plate?

I’d love to hear your thoughts, as this story is gonna become common before you know it. Grandpa Economics is creating a new class of people while we watch in real time.

The Perfect Real Estate Investment VS A Million Monkeys

Dear Real Estate Investor:

Times are tough. Did you think sooner or later they wouldn’t be? Is that why you’re spinning yer wheels searching for the perfect property in the A+ location, priced under the market?

Are ya leaving milk and cookies on the table for Santa next Monday too?

Take a minute and breathe deeply the gathering… Oops, sorry, had a 70’s flashback. Let’s start again.

We’ve all seen investors who’ve been fairly successful. Ever found one with a portfolio acquired only in boom times? Silly question isn’t it? When did they buy, making their biggest long term hits? Wait for it — here it comes — in the down times.

Next, ask them how many perfect properties they own in the best locations possible. The answer to that question, after they stop chuckling, is a big fat zero, zip, nada.

Besides, if you actually found that property, you couldn’t afford it anyway. 🙂

Invest in properties in solid growth areas, where jobs are plentiful and the other fundamentals are in place and for real. Buy them when the times are tough — hey! that’s now. Make sure you can use reasonable leverage with old fashioned loans. Demand they break even or better before tax, and cash flow easily after tax.

Don’t insist on staying local, as your market probably sucks more than a new Dyson. You already know that though, right? So what’s the problem? You think you’re better off being able to drive by your property? Do you wanna drive by mediocre or occasionally fly to excellent and stellar? Is the decision really that difficult?

If this doesn’t come across as written by Captain Obvious — read it again. The differences between highly successful real estate investors and the rest of the crowd makes for a long list. The two biggest differences providing the most profitable impact?

Successful investors don’t need perfect properties — and they buy in buyers’ markets whenever possible, as much as possible.

This isn’t from the third tablet Moses lost on the way down the mountain that day so long ago. Buying in a buyers’ market isn’t a genius Read more

Want Garlic On That Ice Cream? You Don’t Want Cash Flow On Your Capital Growth Either

Dad, when he was poor, survived on peanut butter and onion sandwiches — no lie, as I couldn’t make that up. 🙂

Though not nearly as weird, I like spinach salads with olive oil and malt vinegar. garlic ice creamI’ve not run into anyone else who likes it. They usually put balsamic vinegar on instead. Go figure. 🙂

I love garlic in my stir fry, onions too. The malt vinegar on my spinach salads might be a little quirky, but not up to the level of garlic on ice cream, know what I mean, Verne? Not even if it was free. 🙂

The same goes with cash flow. It goes well with retirement. In fact, surveys show it’s #1 on retirees’ wish list — more of it, that is. 🙂

You’re invited to my place, for a short weekend read on the subject of how cash flow can actually significantly reduce your ultimate retirement income.

The misuse, or rather, poorly timed pursuit of cash flow is maybe the most misunderstood factor in real estate investing.

While you’re there, try listening to a podcast or two. By far, the two most popular are Purposeful Planning and Grandpa Economics.

Enjoy your weekend.

The Weight Loss Process and the Real Estate Market: The Same Animal in a Different Form

Much like the real estate market my life has taken on significant changes over the past two months.  Fortunately, unlike the real estate market, my life has been on the upswing.  A major focus for me has been weight loss, resulting in my dropping nearly 40 pounds in about two months.  As I am not one for long personal stories, the major reason for sharing this is to relate how weight loss and real estate seem to go hand and hand.

The Realization

I am fat.  Plain and simple, one day I realized I was fat.  There were plenty of signs, quite obvious to others, which I chose to ignore: tighter pants, lower energy, the mirror, etc.  Eventually the mountain of evidence reaches a tipping point; a point at which, despite my best efforts, I simply could not ignore the fact that I was no longer the chiseled college athlete of six years ago.  For me, this point was when, on a whim that was clearly not thought out, I decided to weigh myself.  When the scale read 260 pounds and I officially weighed more than my father, it was a sad day.  The day became even sadder when my wife thoughtfully pointed out that the BMI for a person my height (6′ 2″) suggested that I should weigh 190 (thanks, dear).  

The real estate market reached this point about six months to a year ago.  Much like me, the market chose to ignore that fact that real estate prices were increasing much faster than wages.  Additionally, prices continued to increase at break neck speeds assuming the lowest interest rates in history would get even lower.  At the height of market gluttony, people were using homes as personal cash registers, spending as if the money created from nothing, would magically go on forever.  Then one day, the market hit a tipping point.  For the real estate market, my guess would be the subprime market disaster acted as this point.  At this point people begin to wake up and come to their senses.

The Action Plan

Getting back to the fundamentals of eating right and exercising brought me Read more

Keeping Up With What Frank Doesn’t Know — Earth Round — Circles Sun

There’s a mindset that has always befuddled me. It’s origin seems to be grounded in the belief that if I’ve believed X for years, than something proclaimed to be superior to X just can’t be true. Furthermore, the evidence I point to, is how many people agree with my belief in X.

Huh?

The world’s population believed the earth was flat, and that the sun circled it. They were wrong. However, when Copernicus found empirical evidence to the contrary, he was wrong, because he was virtually alone. (Sometimes I think Greg Swann is directly descended from Copernicus.) 🙂 The central argument against him was — all, 100%, totally — false data based upon a long held belief — which was based upon subjective interpretations of bad science — and anger at having their food dishes moved. How dare Copernicus?!

Those arguing for 401(k)’s as superior to F.I.U.L.’s (Now, often referred to as E.I.U.L.) are no doubt sincere in their beliefs. The problem is, when they retire, they’ll notice the guy next door who opted for the insurance approach, and realize very quickly, sadly too, I’m sure — they were sincerely wrong.

I watched NOVA last night, and they said without reservation that the earth is still round, and it revolves around the sun, not the other way around.

My hope is, this post hits its intended target: Those who run companies. Employees who are relying upon the experts made available to them — by their employers.

Before I continue, let me correct a mistake made in one the previous two posts. I’d misread a ‘3’ for a ‘2’ and subsequently wrote 20 instead of 30 years for one of my examples. My error — as I reviewed the document, it indeed read 30 years, not 20. This resulted in misstating one of my numbers. This didn’t change the outcome of the piece though, as you’ll shortly see for yourself.

As we get into the nitty-gritty of the actual comparison of 401(k)’s and F.I.U.L.’s, let’s establish exactly where I’m getting the numbers, and if the source I’m using is credible. 🙂 I do this because it became Read more

401(k)’s IRA’s & Urban Myths

In a recent post, Retirement — A New Class Being Created, I predicted a new class of retiree living a life tied to their free and clear home, with little monthly income. It inspired some interesting comments, and a question that is the inspiration for this post. One reader, Eric, was surprised to hear his 401(k) would be taxed when he retired and began taking distributions. So he asked the following question.

Help a young man out here – what tax bite do you speak of? Early withdrawal? I was under the impression that so long as a 401k built up to a certain age (65?) that it was relatively tax free?

Rain on my parade, I’m wearing my parka. 🙂

It’s not Eric’s fault (at least mostly) he thinks his withdrawals would be ‘relatively’ tax free. I’ve had many people in my office tell me what they know on the subject, most of it based on what some expert at work told them. But alas, it is taxed just like you’re being taxed now Eric. And if you’re not taking out what Big Brother thinks you should be by the time you’re in your early 70’s, they’ll make you take out more, or penalize your butt.

That’s when Chuchundra came in to soften things up for poor Eric. Chuchundra then offered some advice to Eric using the number one urban myth out there on the subject. In his comment, Brian Brady recognized this advise for what it was — pure urban myth. Chuchundra said:

If you have a standard, pre-tax 401K or IRA, you pay tax on your distributions. It’s considered regular income. You didn’t pay tax on the money you put in or on the capital gains that money made over the years, so you pay when you take it out. The idea being that you’ll be in a lower tax bracket when you’re retired, so the tax bite will be smaller.

Now that might very well be true for those who followed the Grandpa Economics school of How To Retire With A Free & Clear Home While Learning To Live On Coupons, Read more

Retirement — A New Class Being Created

In the seminars we’ve been conducting in San Diego and out of state, we’ve been noticing a common denominator that is becoming more and more troublesome to us. It’s the number of stories being told of parents, grandparents, or the storytellers themselves.

It often begins with, “My dad is in his 70’s, healthy, and owns his home free and clear. He has Social Security, a small annuity, plus the income from his life savings. It all adds up to around $35,000 a year or so. His retirement years aren’t anything like he planned — and he’s becoming more disillusioned each year.”

That’s sad enough on its own merit. How would you like to live your so called Golden Years pinching pennies in a 50+ year old house, and enough after tax income to survive? Now imagine what his kids must think as they begin to enter their 50’s. “Is that my future? Why bother?”

Why bother indeed. Let’s crank up the way-back machine, and see if we can’t shed some light on Dad’s thinking when he was in his 20’s and 30’s.

Let’s say he was 25 in 1957. What if…..

What if we found Dad in ’57 and gave him a choice. He could work hard, invest in real estate, make some sacrifices early in life, and end up with a pretty nice retirement. His other choice would be in the form of a guarantee. How about we guarantee him a $35,000 annual income AND a free and clear home? The median income back then was no doubt less than $10,000 a year. I’ll bet he’d have taken the guarantee. To him it would have been a no-brainer. Yet folks who today find themselves in that exact position are leading lives far different than they ever envisioned.

True Story

I was talking with a prospect the other day, who lives in another state. His parents live in an adjoining state, are retired, and in their 70’s. They enjoy very good health, and are able physically to travel. They are living the very life described above — an old free and clear home, with a little less Read more