Category: Real Estate (page 26 of 266)

I like that quote in the headline, but by now I like Thanksgiving better as a celebration of the success of a colony of religious rebels: It is our freedom they were consecrating. Even so, I’m working this morning. Scut work, too, the kind I’m usually better at delegating. But if I can get the patch-and-paint done today, the cleaners can finish tomorrow, so I’m patching-and-painting on Thanksgiving.

From ten years ago, same headline:

Greg Swann: “Thanksgiving was a holiday established by productive people to celebrate the success of their work.”

And elsewhere:

Housing Wire: The best new home sales report ever.

Housing Wire: Record low mortgage rates hold steady at 2.72%.

Patrick Byrne: Election 2020 Was Rigged: The Evidence.

Victoria Taft: Sidney Powell Releases the ‘Kraken’ in Georgia with Explosive New Lawsuit.

Issues and Insights: Impeach Joe Biden.

The Washington Examiner: ‘Strongly biased in favor of liberals’: Psychologist says Google manipulated content ahead of election that swayed votes.

The Washington Examiner: Study finds 84% fewer hospitalizations for patients treated with controversial drug hydroxychloroquine. Media lied, thousands died.

Big League Politics: Study Points to Pervasive Mental Illness Among White American Liberals.

Here’s a true fact of reality: If people moving from riot-ravaged cities have soaked up all the vacancy in suburbs near and far, that implies there is a huge amount of languishing vacancy back in those boarded-up burgs. Vacancy means spiraling price cuts and expired and withdrawn listings.

Redfin doesn’t want to talk about that. That’s their business, and it’s understood that their “news” is PR, happy babble meant to motivate their perpetually-fearful clientele.

Even so, this is fun:

“While life in the city has changed during the pandemic, with empty sidewalks and boarded-up storefronts becoming the norm, some buyers are looking long-term and realizing it’s possible to buy a condo for a 2017 price without competition,” said Jessie Culbert Boucher, a Redfin real estate agent in Seattle. “If they hold onto it for five years, they’ll likely ride out the current downturn, make money and enjoy the return of vibrant city life.”

“It’s just a gully that’s all. Just nerves.” – The Big Short.

Testimony is always unreliable, and yet the truth is always there to be dug out. If you’re buying at the 2017 price without compeition, offer the 2016 price. Will it be possible to buy at the 2014 price in a few months? If way better housing is now discounted by three years’ of appreciation, how is way worse doing? My read is that whole neighborhoods in Seattle will be constructively abandoned soon. I do love the forward-looking statement, though. That can’t result in lawsuits from people relying on widely-publicized uniformed advice.

Redfin: Home Searches in Cities Up 200% From Last Year, Reflecting Renewed Interest in Urban Areas After Pandemic-Driven Drop.

Housing Wire: 2021 housing market forecast: It’s about politics, not economics.

Jason Rantz: Oregon Tougher on Thanksgiving Families than Antifa Terrorists.

Jeffrey Tucker: The Blizzard of Bogus Journalism on Covid.

Sharyl Atkisson: How The New York Times Became A Propaganda Bullhorn For The Left.

American Thinker: To Restore Election Integrity, End Mail-In Vote Fraud.

The Federalist: 5 More Ways Joe Biden Magically Outperformed Election Norms.

Michael Walsh: President Trump, Explain to the American Read more

Every Buyer’s Agent knows how to kill a house. You walk into a pantry or a bathroom and you say, “Whoa! Do you smell that? A mustiness…? Maybe I’m wrong…” That house is now at the bottom of the stack. I’ve never done that belligerently – to kill a house that didn’t have a fungus problem – but I’ve done it proactively many times. A Buyer’s Agent is the first line of defense against red flags.

But consider: Per this ridiculous NAR “settlement,” Buyer’s Agents are now supposed to abjure any knowledge of the Buyer’s Agent’s commission, and to operate as if incentives have no motivating power. Worse, as summarized in the headline and masticated to someone’s taste in the Inglorious Blob post cited below, the actual purpose of the lawsuit was to screw Buyer’s Agents – to forbid them from noticing they are being screwed by Realty.bots who cannot explain themselves to their customers.

Here’s a hint: If real estate commissions are too damn high, why aren’t Redfin and REX demanding to rebate the excess to the seller – you know, the party who is allegedly paying too damn much for the buyer’s representation?

Yeah. Who’s not full of shit? Meanwhile, listers who screw the hardest-working, worst-paid people in real estate should expect to hear more about an ineffable mustiness. You cannot forbid protozoa from pursuing their own interests. Why would you try that with people?

Yesterday on BloodhoundBlog, some thoughts on what Trump might be doing:

Greg Swann: “Doc” Holliday, Donald Trump and the art of the bluff. Here’s the truth you might have guessed, knowing the world you’re in and who you are reading from: The storied gunfight at the OK Corral was a rent-seeker’s dispute over a shipping concession – the Earps, representing Wells Fargo, muscling in on a market controlled by the Sandy-Bob stage coach line. Ain’t that America?

And elsewhere:

Rob Hahn: REX and the DOJ: Implications for the Future. I did a house for $500 once. Foreclosure in self-sabotage. Bank wouldn’t pay and buyers never have cash – that is Read more

Seen any commercial TV lately? Have you spotted ads from local real estate vendors offering to make cash offers for homes – right now, on the spot, in any condition?

“That’s not really iBuying!” the iBuyers will shout – and it’s true. It’s flipping Homevestors.com-style – Ug’s uglier offspring. What do you suppose those ads are doing to buy-side prices? How are they affecting the ability of the “real” iBuyers to acquire properties to lose money with?

(Insider’s tip: For now, at least, buy wholesale and fix ’n’ flip to the iBuyers. They need product, and they’ll pay a competitive ROI to get it. DOM is their doom but your deliverance: Shed that puppy, then rinse and repeat.)

I’ll have more to say about iBuyers in due course, but I’m less and less interested. It’s a business built on churn, which is just stupid – and I mean like Bitcoin stupid, the supposed added economic value of entirely-useless efforts. For now, people who can actually make money flipping homes are popping up like mushrooms under the iBuyer marketing buzz. Eventually the market swing is going to slaughter the iBuyers – who already make mistakes by the thousands in the easiest resale market ever. People who are good with computers are typically lousy with everything else – especially people. Only people who are good with computers are astonished to learn this news.

Mike DelPrete: iBuyer Market Share Set to Drop By Half in 2020.

New York Post: Giant New York rats overtaking Central Park and the Upper West Side. Don’t call them rats. They’re Cuomos. Utterly Emmy-worthy. To be fair, we had a similar situation with rabbits eating out the wiring in our cars. We solved the problem by moving to a neighborhood with more coyotes.

Joel Kotkin: The End Game.

Tyler O’Neil: Biden Is Crowdfunding His Own Transition. Now, Do the Federal Government.

The Federalist: Joe Biden: Why Are Reporters Asking Me Questions?

Michael Fumento: If We Want People To Accept A COVID-19 Vaccine, We Should Stop Lying To Them About The Disease.

The American Spectator: Trump Won Read more

The headline is the extent of my contribution to election news this morning – aside from the links below. I’m eager to see how matters play out.

I have further thoughts on the NAR business, but I’ll lay those aside for a separate post. Meanwhile, Glenn Kelman taught me long ago to listen for the pain, when Realty.bot executives talk to the media or to the public.

Kelman is Cs, and Redfin built its entire business around the Cautious temperament. His lamentations and rejoicings over this piddly-shit NAR “settlement” result from his failures to appeal to a Cautious clientele – the only people who care how Buyer’s Agents get paid.

Here’s worse news for Kelman and all the Realty.bot WannaBrokers – mostly Ci, so even less connected to real people: No rainmakers, no rain.

Housing Wire: NAR launches interactive training to combat housing discrimination. Totally not sick-making. The real estate licensing laws are a huge hurdle for poor communities trying to engender their own middle class. Being ‘diasporatized’ by fair-housing interventions doesn’t help, either. An NAR that cared about black-, brown- and red-skinned lives would get the hell out of the way. Failing that, it would offer Grasshopper-to-Ant classes everywhere, all the time. Take note: Lip service is all you’ll ever get from these goons. Why would they want anything to change?

Redfin: Housing Market Update: Homebuying Picks Up After Election Week, Pending Sales Up 29% From 2019. Not even gonna pick on ’em.

Joel Kotkin: Governor Preen: California’s Gavin Newsom presides with aristocratic hauteur over a state in crisis.

Glenn Reynolds: Why the SpaceX ‘ferry’ just truly launched a new Space Age.

American Greatness: Big Tech Corporate Leftists at WordPress Suppress Critical Public Watchdog.

John Daniel Davidson: Your Political Leaders Hate You And Think You’re Stupid.

American Spectator: What We Must Believe to Believe Biden Won.

Reuters: Why Republican voters say there’s ‘no way in hell’ Trump lost.

Angelo Codevilla: From Ruling Class to Oligarchy: Roughly half the country is living under an alien regime that means to harm us socially, politically, and economically.

We just went through an yet another election demonstrating that polling is useless – most especially where the person being polled has reasons to deceive the pollster.

Redfin didn’t poll, it just inferred, but if demand for second homes is booming, that could mean three things, not just one: 1. The buyers actually want and plan to use a second home, Redfin’s presumption. 2. The buyers are hedging their bets, planning to sell one of the homes when they know better what the future holds for them. 3. They’re doing a buy-and-bail – letting the old home go into foreclosure after they have moved into the new one.

The good news, apparently: Absolutely none of these radical real estate changes will have been caused by the rioting that is not happening anyway!

Redfin: Demand for Second Homes Surges 100% Year Over Year In October. CTRL- F ‘riot’; not found.

Redfin: Home Sales Surge 24%, the Biggest Gain on Record, Prices up 14% in October. CTRL- F ‘riot’; not found.

Housing Wire: The 10 most popular cities for out-of-town homebuyers.

Housing Wire: Increase in housing starts has construction playing catch-up.

Housing Wire: Texas homeownership rate reaches an all-time high.

The Federalist: Science As God: Tech Hearing And COVID Show Us Exactly Where Censorship Is Headed.

James Delingpole: The Great Reset Is Trending. Here’s Why…

Issues and Insights: Are Pandemic Lockdowns A Dry Run For The ‘Climate Crisis’?

Jonathan Tobin: Justice Alito is right: The pandemic brought an assault on our basic rights.

Issues and Insights: Don’t ‘Californicate’ The Rest Of America.

Americans watched extortion on a live Zoom call last night: Wayne County election officials were doxxed and their children were threatened – Mafia-style – before the Zoom call was cut off – presumably when the threats escalated even more. If the terrorists who effected this arm-twisting are not arrested by Federal agents this morning, any hope the Trump campaign has of fortitude among politicians seems misplaced. As long as actual Brown Shirts are free to commit tens of thousands of unprosecuted felonies, no one is safe to stand his ground.

Redfin: Survey: 30% of Americans Want to Live Somewhere Else Due to Protests. And 70% already do! Redfin has now progressed to full-on RiotWashing: Not only did no riots happen, but people really love the riots that didn’t happen, and besides they never happened anyway. “‘Americans have been leaving major cities in droves during the pandemic, and recent unrest is just one small piece of the puzzle,’ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather.” Look at your frolicking charts, Daryl: Little hump: Pandemic. Big hump: Riots. Does it cause Redfin pain to tell the truth?

CNBC: Homebuilder confidence in November shatters record high, as buyers keep fleeing for the suburbs.

Housing Wire: NAR’s Yun expects a brisk winter housing market.

CNBC: Mortgage demand from homebuyers surges after election pause.

Forbes: How The Fed Paved The Way For The Biggest Real Estate Investment Opportunity Of Our Lifetime.

FEE: New Yorkers Are Abandoning the Big Apple in Droves Despite Cheaper Rent, Report Shows. Big cities thrived when communication lag was a problem: Foot messengers really mattered, and the American Stock Exchange was organized out of the windows overlooking Broad Street. None of that matters now, and, just as with malls and cinemas, the internet is eating everything of obsolete business models. Sad that we have to read this news in an economics blog, rather that in the real estate press.

Breitbart: Wayne County Reverses Decision, Certifies Disputed Election Results as Video Goes Dark.

Jordan Davidson: Joe Biden Has Said Nothing About The Violent Attacks Read more

I’m in the process of extricating myself from the National Association of Realtors. Every agent should be asking the question in the headline, but my reason is more comprehensive: I know who speech codes are for. I am very lucky to live in a free country – for now – but people who think like I do are routinely jailed and killed all over the world, nearer in space and time every day.

Here’s what’s worse: The NAR has now turned the lazy bulk of its membership into Stasi spies committed to destroying the productive agents – especially the innovators.

But here’s what’s better: The NAR has turned on its membership, declaring that it will spy on them and then destroy their careers. Why is that better? Because, as with NASCAR and public school teachers, the NAR’s true loyalties are now at least partially unmasked. Whatever side they are on, it ain’t yours. Respond accordingly.

As for me, depending on how things work out and how angry I get about it, I may devote some time to interesting legal issues:

• Is the NAR a labor union, subject to labor union regulation?
• Is the NAR bound by right-to-work laws in Arizona? Must I subsidize ideas I abhor?
• Is the NAR a de facto monopoly, bound by the anti-trust laws?
• Is the higher degree of failure for black and hispanic real estate agents caused by the NAR?

The answer the last question is a resounding yes. Occupational licensing laws – originated by the NAR – were devised to exclude black competition. The real estate licensing laws still work that way, imposing very high financial and intellectual capital demands on new entrants – for a low-capital type of small business often run by very dim bulbs. This would be the “systemic” racism serious people would address. You can’t make it to the top if the big-shots keep sweeping you off the first step.

Housing Wire: After several disturbing incidents, NAR amends Code of Ethics to include Realtors’ personal behavior.

Housing Wire: Affordable housing groups look to Biden to fulfill campaign promises.

FEE: Read more

So the primary election strategy failed when Trump beat the margin of cheating. Then the fallback cheating failed so badly that the fallback narrative – “Trump is stealing the election!!” – is also failing. China Joe is in the unhappy position of losing the election because of the fallback cheating – and of having the primary cheating exposed, as well.

You’d hide, too.

And: If we get very lucky, the DNC and everything it touches will get rolled up RICO-style.

I can dream, can’t I?

New York Post: New stats reveal massive NYC exodus amid coronavirus, crime.

Forbes: Who Is Buying In New York City, And Who Is Leaving?

PJ Media: ‘Total Media Blackout’ as Antifa Launches Attacks on MAGA Rallygoers in D.C.

David Marcus: Refusing To Apply The Law To Violent Leftists Is Normalizing Political Violence.

Brad Polumbo: The political class’s coronavirus credibility crisis endangers public health.

Sundance: The Treehouse is Deplatformed… This is why BloodhoundBlog is here, in 2020: Because we can’t trust tech Marxists to leave us alone.

John Daniel Davidson: Republicans Have Good Reason Not To Trust The Election Results.

Townhall: Was Election Software Rigged? Sidney Powell Lays Out the Trump Team’s Findings.

Clarice Feldman: What’s Kraken?

American Greatness: Geezer in the Freezer: Presumptuous partisan Joe Biden’s transition has been put on ice.

City Journal: The Chump Effect: Progressive policies penalize those who play by the rules and shower benefits on those who don’t.

I wish I had a reliable resource to report on last night’s festivities in Washington, but – since Trump’s supporters were not only attacked, they prevailed – there won’t be any “news” on these events until it turns out it was all Trump’s fault.

Here’s a puzzler: A confederation of freaks incapable of propitious reproduction holds the future hostage to their absurd demands. What happens next?

The future shrugs.

Reason: Should Remote Workers Pay a Tax for the ‘Privilege’ of Using Their Home as an Office? Most “financial news” is telegraphy about where the margins are getting squeezed. But: Still: What gonophs!

CNBC: Morgan Stanley says housing discrimination has taken a huge toll on the economy. We need more borrowers!

Kevin Williamson: Why Trump supporters are here for good.

Matt Vespa: Pollster: It’s Curious How Biden Underperformed Hillary Clinton In Every City…Except These Four.

The Federalist: Why President Trump Has A Strong Supreme Court Case To Contest Pennsylvania.

First Things: The Fury of Fatherlessness. h/t Teri Lussier.

After watching one huge national institution after another destroy itself embracing woke politics, the National Association of Realtors yesterday put itself into the speech-code business. Smooth move.

The NAR is a cabal of rent-seeking morons. They want to regulate speech as yet another way to eliminate smarter competition. The purpose of all rules and laws is to outlaw the benefits of having a better-disciplined mind.

The word Realtor has marketing value, but I am a Broker, a much more powerful word. The NAR is saving me some money, because I will not be renewing. I expect I am not alone.

National Association of Realtors: NAR Board of Directors Approves New Personal Conduct Policy Addressing Discrimination.

Housing Wire: National Association of Realtors. CTRL-F ‘riot’; not found. Here’s a puzzler: If a whole lot of urban housing is now constructively abandoned, what would that do the price of the remaining homes?

Housing Wire: Zillow: There’s no going back from RON.

New York Post: Gambling sites refuse to call election for Biden, leaving $600 million in limbo.

Glenn Greenwald: Biden, the Media and CIA Labeled the Hunter Biden Emails “Russian Disinformation.” There is Still No Evidence.

Spiked: Why young white men are abandoning the Democrats.

The Federalist: 5 Historical Trends That Show It’s Utterly Shocking If Trump Lost In 2020.

City Journal: Find a New Bogeyman: What will the Left do if it no longer has Trump to kick around?

The American Mind: Stop the Coup.

What’s turmoil’s tax? I’m sitting on a listing. I know it will pop when the market’s fully attentive – but now it ain’t. My role in the economy is to work in months but to plan in years. For now I work in days or hours and plan for nothing.

Even if Biden had won cleanly, there would have been a dip in far-future plays. Trump promises America a future where investment is safe, China Joe just the opposite.

If the productive half of the nation puts itself into White Mutiny against the predatory half – if the Ants go limp on the Grasshoppers – the economic consequences will be positively Venezuelan.

Plus which: China will own America forever.

Me, elsewhere:

Greg Swann: My three Trumps: Envisioning strategies leading to an exit strategy.

Elsewhere itself:

Redfin: Housing Market Update: Home Prices Climb 15% Even as Growth in Pending Sales & New Listings Slowed Amid Election Uncertainty. CTL F ‘riot’; not found. Did any important events happen between the virus and the election? Apparently not…

Housing Wire: Mortgage rates rise from record low to 2.84%.

Housing Wire: Biden transition team brings back key CFPB players.

City Journal: The Bill Comes Due: New York’s next mayor will have to contend with a fiscal nightmare.

TopTradeGurus: The Data Genius from ‘The Big Short’ Says 2020 Election Full Statistical Anomalies.

Joel Kotkin: The Real Winners and Losers.

Brendan O’Neill: The real resistance: The 70million people who voted for Trump are revolting against the new elites.

Kyle Smith: The Chump Effect.

David Harsanyi: Against ‘Unity’.

Mark Steyn: Looking for an Argument.

City Journal: The South Korean Lesson: A high-trust society that credits its government with good intentions responds well to national emergencies.