There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Real Estate (page 19 of 266)

Overnight News: “The limited liability corporation is the rope by which Capitalism hung itself.”

Ya think it's easy?

“You might think that I’m all ears, too, but I expect you’ll sniff out the truth in due course.”

Predatory traders are not new. Crassus, to pick an ugly example, would bring his fire brigade to your burning Roman insulae – apartment building – but he wouldn’t have them start to put out the fire until you sold the property to him. The longer it burned, the cheaper it got. Desperate businesses get sold this way to this day.

But it is liability limitation that made predation normal – or at least common, to be expected – in trade. We want to do business with the butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker, but instead we wake up with fleas from Bezos, Dorsey and Zuckerberg – the law firm of all the people who didn’t read the Terms of Service.

This is me, nearly sixteen years ago:

“The essential defining characteristic of a corporation, as against other ways of organizing a business enterprise, is liability limitation, a conspiracy between the proprietors and the state to defraud tort claimants of all they might otherwise obtain in redress for their injuries. It’s pure Hamiltonian Social Engineering, Mercantilism at its worst. The idea is to encourage investment by limiting the risk. But by limiting responsibility, investment is distorted away from the individual integrity that is the sine qua non of enlightened self-interest. The limited liability corporation is the rope by which Capitalism hung itself.”

Some people are much better at particular jobs, which is how task specialization brought us the butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker. Some people are better at organizing and managing things, too, and this, also, is a talent to be exploited in the marketplace – within limits.

Liability limitation rewards investors for hiring ruthless managers. The butcher marks up cost-plus not because everyone else does it that way, too, but because friends don’t gouge friends. The baker gives you a baker’s dozen doughnuts because you take care of the people who take care of you. The candlestick maker employs your kid part-time – not because he’s worth it, but because someday soon he Read more

Overnight News: The “science” behind reopening Arizona is taught in marketing class.

Ya think it's easy?

“Take it for what it’s worth: The past year has been terrible for kids but great for dogs.”

Arizona is opening back up – much like and in lock-step with Texas. Doug Ducey, R(ino)-Purple Gang, our governor, is not bright enough to do the right thing for the right reasons, so I assume this was a marketing move forced upon him by the real estate industry, Arizona’s strongest power base. Texas just stumbled stupidly in the snow, so, by all means, Keep Arizona Housing Competitive™.

Reopening the “red” states will be a good pretext for the next phase of the Ant exodus: Riot Season is upon us in Minneapolis, so the virus that will be gone by the first crack of the bat on Opening Day will be blamed all year for the further flight to safety.

In other news:

CNBC: The spring housing market just lost more than 200,000 new listings.

Spectrum News: Nation’s First 3D-Printed Homes for Sale Hit Austin Market. Architecture has been lost for 100 years, like everything else, but this house is straight outta Sullivan: The method of construction is its own ornamentation. It is beautiful because of the way it is built.

The Fence Post: ‘30 x 30’ — Progressives pushing for massive federal land grab.

City Journal: Opportunity Knocks: Cities hoping to attract footloose workers should embrace growth and affordability.

AND Magazine: The Left’s Revolution Is Just Getting Started – More Riots Are Planned.

Townhall: Time to Start Talking About America’s Coming Bankruptcy.

Overnight News: Which slaves are wisest to rebel?

Ya think it's easy?

“If you’re looking for security in this dog-eat-dog world, try to get a gig as a mission-critical marketing asset.”

I gave this observation to Odysseus a few weeks ago – opining about the world as an opinionated dog might do:

“To be owned as a pet is to be loved. To be owned as an investment is to be prized. But to be owned as a nuisance is to be abandoned in due course – or simply slaughtered.”

Shoe pinch? I wasn’t talking about dogs.

Ordinary everyday Americans are “owned as a nuisance” to too much of the Ruling Class. Humanity is a burden to be borne by the putative elite: Not beloved pets, not prized investments but simply inherited livestock – to be locked down, stimulused if you insist, ordered around in detail, excoriated at length and otherwise neglected.

None of those slaveries would be right, of course – owning and controlling people is evil. But which is worse?

The Tea Party and the resultant Trump movement are slave rebellions: Slaves owned as investments by the Federal Reserve Bank have been agitating for more than a decade for a better split of their own proceeds. Am I too cynical? What about the Laffer Curve would not also apply to actual dairy management, and not just to milking taxpayers?

To Ci and Dc in power, ordinary people are mere pawns in their games. Not individuals of uniquely lovable potential and merit, but simply ciphers, tokens – livestock of unknown investment value. This is true of both political parties, and, seemingly, of virtually everyone in government: You’re not nature’s perfect problem-solver – you’re the problem.

So which slaves would be wiser to rebel – the ones owned as an investment, or the ones owned as a nuisance?

Yesterday on BloodhoundBlog:

Brian Brady: Mat Ishbia draws a line in the sand; do business with Rocket Mortgage and you won’t do business with UWM.

In other news:

Redfin: Housing Market Update: Homes Sell Closer Than Ever to List Price as Average Sale-to-List Ratio Approaches 100%.

CNBC: Manhattan apartment discounts may be ending soon as sales soar 73% in February.

City Journal: Is Texas’s Affordable Housing Endangered?

The Read more

Overnight News: Who knows how to lead us away from Marxist extermination? Apparently no one.

Ya think it's easy?

“The theory of the ‘Drunkard’s Walk’ says a lost dog won’t wander too far away – but he doesn’t have to to be lost.”

We are told that Marjorie Taylor Greene hung a sign outside her office reading, “There are only two genders.”

That’s stupid, of course. Gender refers to types of words, and a language will have as many as it thinks it needs. There are only two sexes – the point Greene was trying to make.

That kind of thing is common, alas: Putative opponents of tyranny buttressing their enemies by “fighting” on their turf – using their terms.

We are in fact unled. There is no philosophical opposition to the Marxist tyranny engulfing us. The Dc and Ci arguments don’t cut it: Rotarian Socialism is alt.predation – and the camouflage is threadbare by now.

We are a Ds nation with no Ds leadership anywhere – and no informed leadership of any kind.

In other news:

Housing Wire: For the first time since July, mortgage rates pass 3%.

Zero Hedge: JP Morgan Is Trying To Offload “Big Blocks” Of Corporate Manhattan Real Estate.

American Greatness: Is New York Dead Yet?

CBS News: Experts sound the alarm on declining birth rates among younger generations: “It’s a crisis”.

Zero Hedge: US Life Expectancy In 2020 Saw Biggest Drop Since WWII.

The Federalist: Is Our Exploding National Debt Fueling A Stock Market Crash?

The American Spectator: Lockdowns: Which ‘Experts’ Were Right? A year later it’s clear that most media and government experts were dead wrong.

City Journal: How the Woke Stole Childhood: The campaign against Theodor Geisel takes cancel culture to new lows.

American Thinker: The Case for Closing Public Schools… Indefinitely.

Overnight News: How do you house the post-monogamous?

Ya think it's easy?

“You know how to tell when you’re really playing hard? It’s when you don’t realize until afterward how hard you were playing.”

Real estate has a demography problem – especially nerd-bait real estate: The kids are not all right.

Real estate is kids and dogs – which is to say that people buy homes to house the further fruits of their coupling. Fewer couples, fewer purchasers, more renters. But fewer couples, less capital accumulation overall.

We have bred ourselves away from breeding – but also from saving-up and from planning-ahead generally. We celebrated juvenility until we became a nation of juveniles.

The people most enthralled by hi-tech real estate novelties are the ones least likely ever to buy, or even ever able to afford, a home – but they’re not coupling, anyway, not enduringly.

A truly forward-looking real estate start-up would build rental dormitories: “Mom’s Basement: Cooking, cleaning and laundry – but no curfews!”

In other news:

CNBC: Mortgage application demand stalls as interest rates surge to highest level since July.

CNBC: 10% GDP growth? The U.S. economy is on fire, and is about to get stoked even more.

Law and Liberty: Inflation Comes for the Profligate.

Daniel Greenfield: Coke Goes Woke and Broke: Brands go woke because they’re going broke.

The Federalist: The Left’s Vision Of Equity Will Cripple A Generation Of Minority Students.

Christopher Rufo: Critical Race Fragility: The Left has denounced the “war on woke,” but it is afraid to defend the principles of critical race theory in public debate.

John Daniel Davidson: The Cancellation Of Dr. Seuss Should Disturb You, Because You’re Next.

Overnight News: The most important preparation for selling a home? Know what market you’re in.

Ya think it's easy?

“If you can’t pounce on the slice of ham the instant it hits the floor – another dog can.”

For my two most-recent listings, the prep work consisted of landscaping – around $300 each. For one, I had planned to have a huge, ugly tree trimmed, but the house sold before the tree surgeon could sharpen his scalpel. For vacant listings, I’m doing landscaping plus deep cleaning, but I’m still coming in under $1,000 a house.

Yesterday I saw an article – I won’t say where – on the importance of staging for the sale of your home.

Yeah… Not so much. Not now. Everything helps, incrementally, I suppose – but anything that delays your entry into this market right now is probably a mistake. If I take possession of a house on Monday, I will have it listed by Friday and sold by Tuesday – or sooner. My staging right now consists of a bottle of hand sanitizer.

Staging, photos, drone shots, virtual tours, floorplans, blah, blah, blah. The purpose of marketing is to move goods that aren’t moving on their own. When houses are selling like hotcakes – and when the breakfast menu could go away at any second – our job is not marketing but salesmanship.

In other news:

CNBC: Creating safe and affordable homes is reaching a crisis point. Ahem. Get the hell out of the way.

Legal Insurrection: Kristi Noem: “COVID didn’t crush the economy. Government crushed the economy.”

City Journal: Covid’s Transportation Tsunami: To allocate new infrastructure spending wisely, legislators need to understand how Americans’ habits have changed.

City Journal: “Money Printer Go Brrr” Can the U.S. borrow endlessly?

American Greatness: A Trojan Horse for Woke Education.

Overnight News: My take: Late, lazy and long-winded is a lousy way to win hearts and minds.

Ya think it's easy?

“There’s a lot to like about Trump, but face facts: The man doesn’t have a dog.”

I watched President Trump at CPAC – or I tried to.

I saw Jim Jordan earlier, and he rocked – six minutes of Toastmaster perfection. Trump, by contrast, was late as usual, lazy in his delivery as usual, and was so often off-script – as usual – that his talk ran on forever.

At least I think it did. I kept nodding off, so finally I just turned it off and took a nap – a better use for a Sunday afternoon.

Trump is Incandescent, and that makes him more interested in the accolades for the accomplishments than the accomplishments themselves. That’s why he spends so much time patting himself on the back – and why he spent so little time talking about what he’s going to do now, going forward.

A serious anti-Marxist political party would:

  • Recall every Democrat at every level of government; less mischief if you can keep them on defense.
  • Enact election integrity laws wherever possible, all the way down to the precinct level.
  • Eliminate the state-level emergency powers that made the lockdowns and the election theft possible.

To the extent that few of these things are happening now, you can estimate the future efficacy of Donald Trump.

In other news:

Redfin: One Year Later: The Coronavirus Pandemic’s Impact on the U.S. Housing Market In 12 Charts. Last year’s riotous real estate market was caused by the riots, not the virus. Redfin knows that, as does everyone else with a functioning brain. Why would they lie about this for months on end? Where are they located?

American Thinker: The Left’s Latest Battleground Is Your Neighborhood.

The Washington Post: The wave of covid bankruptcies has begun.

David Marcus: CPAC Is Still Trump’s, But Something Has Changed.

Daniel Greenfield: Kamala Harris: Equality is Old News, Let’s Talk About Equity.

Heather MacDonald: A New Crime Wave – and What to Do About It: New York City rejected the policing lessons that led to its success, and violence is surging.

Overnight News: Real estate is kids and dogs – and the love that makes homes for them.

Ya think it's easy?

“Want to know the secret to the happiest of marriages? Your dog is not shopping for a better, richer, hotter family to live with.”

I was all torqued up to beat up on Redfin this morning, but then I befogged my brain with thoughts of homeless people and dogs, so those nimrods can wait, for now.

Instead, I will assign you homework.

Real estate is kids and dogs, but home is where the heart is. Accordingly, homeless people with dogs are a little less homeless, a little more at home, wherever they go.

Homelessness is unnecessary. In a truly free market, it would not exist. But homeless people are not alien to you. But for the luck of the draw, they are you, clinging to every dignity they can sustain at the left edge of a very cruel bell curve.

The love that matters to all mammals is storgic love, the enduring love of families. We rhapsodize romance or even just sex in our crap art, but what matters at the end of a day – and at the end of a life – is family. Homeless people may have lost everything, but the ones with dogs have what matters more – a love that will not fail, will not flee, will not abandon them, will not die, even when the memory of that perfect love is all that remains of it.

Your assignment: Watch them, when you see them, to see how much alike they are to you – and to see how good their dogs have it, from the dog’s point of view.

In other news – not much of it:

Rob Hahn: The Zestimate Is Now the Purchase Price from Zillow.

Thomas Lifson: World Economic Forum commits a ‘Kinsley gaffe’ and then deletes Twitter video revealing its real agenda.

Thomas Lifson: Ending advanced classes in public schools because the wrong races excel at them.

Overnight News: Sy Simms: “An educated consumer is our best customer.” Zillow: “Yeah… Not so much.”

Ya think it's easy?

“To understand ‘informed discretion,’ consider all the things your dog has devoured that he shouldn’t have.”

If you sell your home to an iBuyer, you will net around 94% of the offered price, after the accumulated impacts of the fine print you did not read are deducted.

If you list your home for sale with me or any good lister, you will net around 92.5% of the purchase price, after real estate commissions and miscellaneous closing costs.

Advantage iBuyer?

Not hardly. Until now, iBuyer offers have been below Fair Market Value, where listed homes have been selling above market – well above market and for the past seven years, where I work.

So, a year ago, before the lockdowns, if your home was worth $300,000, they might have offered you $290,000 – netting you $272,600. I would have listed at $300,000 and sold then for $305,000 – netting you $282,125. I sell in a weekend and my prep costs are running under $1,000, so convenience back then cost the price of a steller vacation or a decent used car.

But now everything has changed. For one thing, I can reliably sell at 5% or 6% above FMV right now, so I might start at $305,000 and finish at $315,000 – netting the seller $291,375.

But the other big change is that Zillow will now use the Zestimate for many houses as its “instant offer.” They should have done this three years ago: Zestimates are reliably erroneous – I could tell them how if they but had the nerve to ask – but the errors would tend to cancel each other out. Plus which, Zillow is playing with lives as if they were Legos: They don’t give a shit about money.

So what now? In our example, Zillow offers $300,000 – netting you $282,000. I’m beating that by nine grand and a nice dinner for two.

Any comparison shopper would list in this market. But every other iBuyer knows where to start, now, to beat Zillow. And there are a lot of them out there.

iBuyers sell very slowly, by my standards. Buying from you, they can beat me to Read more

Where have all… the buyers gone?

If you work with home sellers, the pandemic has been good to you… VERY good to you. If you mostly work with buyers, the pandemic has been sheer hell for you. All of that may change in 2021.   If you spend 5 minutes reading what I am writing, you will be able to explain this dramatic shift in the market and better serve your clients. More importantly, you will be able to weed out the serious buyers and sellers from the lookers.

Background
Legions of buyers, powered by mortgages with rates which start with the digit 2, have been bidding up homes WELL over asking price. List a property on Wednesday, schedule showings for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, present a dozen offers on Monday, send out a “highest and best” counter to a half-dozen that night, and open escrow on Tuesday with a high-down payment offer, waiving the appraisal contingency and closing in 21 days.

Dramatic event which started the shift
Mortgage rates skyrocketed over half of a percentage point these past two weeks. The reasons were apparent but, as always, what Wall Street knew in January, Main Street didn’t discover until Valentine’s Day.
It started right after Christmas. The country went through a tumultuous election and was finally accepting the idea of a new President. The holiday season came and everyone was basking in the glow that 2021 HAD to be better than 2020. Few people realized that just 10 days after Christmas, there would be a Special Election for the two Senate seats in the State of Georgia. Those Senate seats, should they flip parties, would throw the balance of power in the Senate to the SAME political party as the newly elected President and Speaker of the House of Representatives– one political party would have TOTAL control over the US Government.
.
Forget which party you support and understand this–when either Republicans or Democrats have TOTAL control of the Federal Government, spending skyrockets. When we have “divided government”, the minority party has a lever to stop the profligate spending of the majority party. Wall Street LOVES divided government because they know that it will be Read more

Overnight News: Freedom of the press belongs to them what owns one.

Ya think it's easy?

“No smoking in my house!”

If you see a link to this post early in the day, thank the poster: It ain’t me.

I’m in Facebook jail for another three hours or so. I told a trayf truth – and smokin’ ain’t allowed in school.

Way to prove my point, though.

In other news:

Housing Wire: Zestimate to double as Zillow’s iBuying offer.

Redfin: New Listings Fall 17%, Prices Rise 15%.

Housing Wire: Mortgage rates climb higher to 2.97%.

CNBC: You can now buy a 3D-printed home – here’s a look inside.

Housing Wire: Pending home sales drop, but there’s a silver lining.

KPIX-5 TV: San Francisco-Based Airbnb Reports Huge 4th-Quarter Loss.

City Journal: The Low Spark of High-Speed Rail: California’s bullet-train project is still under construction as delays and costs pile up.

Real Clear Books: How Wokeness Captured Big Business.

American Greatness: The Imaginary Menace Behind Everything Wrong In America.

Overnight News: The cure for homelessness? Get the government out of the real estate business.

Ya think it's easy?

“The best thing about being a ‘dumb’ animal? We never get sex wrong.”

Absent zoning – without arbitrary government intrusions in the housing market – there is no homelessness.

If the ordinary progression of housing from A-rated to D-paper is allowed to run its course, we find the people now living outdoors in D- or even E-level housing – but they are living indoors, with heat and running water.

That’s not all that’s required, of course: The employment market has to allow for marginal entrants. Would you hire the people now living outdoors? At the right price, someone will, but that price is not $15 an hour – nor even $7.35 or whatever is the current cut-off on legally-permitted viability.

Poverty is not caused by government. It is caused by bad luck and habituated poor choices. But poverty is massively worsened by government: The lowest-skilled and least-hirable people are prevented from improving their fortunes while they are pushed outdoors with every new mercy inflicted upon them by their coercive caretakers.

Do recall that E-level housing is what the muck-rakers raked muck against – and it’s what Robert Moses obliterated when he invented homelessness by way of Urban Renewal. Moses was a royalist, not a Marxist, but the man definitely liked breaking eggs. We have been wrong about housing for more than a century, and the shards of the eggshells line our streets in tents and pilfered shopping carts.

Poverty didn’t do that. Free markets didn’t do that – to the contrary. Government did that.

In other news:

Housing Wire: Even with high lumber prices, new home sales beat expectations.

Mike DelPrete: The Top Threat to Real Estate Portals.

City Journal: Just Say No . . . to Parks?! Urban recreation areas are reenergizing neighborhoods, but activists increasingly fear “green gentrification.”

David Horowitz: The Fascist Democrats and the Fake Insurrection: Why Americans should be afraid. Very afraid.

American Greatness: We Are Living in the Ruins of Our Civilization.

Michael Anton: Why Do the Election’s Defenders Require My Agreement?

Overnight News: Half-a-year of BloodhoundBlog: Subscribe, link – and tell your friends.

Ya think it's easy?

“There is always something to howl about…”

I’ve been at this every day for half-a-year now. BloodhoundBlog is mainly the Overnight News, for now, with an occasional essay by me or Brian. There are 70 people with posting privileges to this blog, and others among them will show up in due course.

The news is a glimpse into my days’ reading, although I do get – and welcome – tips. I don’t always use them, and I don’t link to even half of what I read: The Overnight News runs from hard facts to big ideas, always with what I think is a connection to doing this job. No paywalls, no promos, no tall weeds; if my eyes glaze over, yours will, too.

The reason for doing this is by now obvious: Every means of communication that escapes the censorious boot of Big Tech is to have been throttled. If we don’t up our own organizations, we won’t have any place to talk at all. Moreover, this point of view – looking out for the grunts on the ground – is one that can only be defended from here.

So do your part, too: Subscribe – the email subscription from the comments box is wicked slick – link and promote: Tell you friends we’re here and that we’re looking out for them.

In other news:

Housing Wire: Home prices soared 10.4% in December.

CNBC: Weekly mortgage application volume drops 11% as rates spike and Texas power outages hurt demand.

Rob Hahn: Insane Seller’s Market Calls for… Auctions?

American Thinker: Sayonara California: Corporate Relocation Experts Expect Best Year Ever!

David Marcus: One Year Later Our Answer To Lockdowns Must Be ‘Never Again’.

City Journal: We Are Not Safer At Home: While making only a limited impact on Covid-19, lockdowns are taking a severe toll on physical and mental health.

Glenn Greenwald: House Democrats, Targeting Right-Wing Cable Outlets, Are Assaulting Core Press Freedoms.

Joel Kotkin: Economic Civil War.

Frontpage: Why The Texas Blackout Has The Greens So Scared.

Overnight News: What do you do if your real estate agent can’t read?

Ya think it's easy?

“I don’t know if there are any Bloodhounds who can’t smell, but there are definitely none who don’t stink.”

Do you think I’m joking in the headline? I’ve never loved the basic preparation of my fellow real estate agents. When I started, I wrote a satiric essay on checking your agent’s math. By now it would be wise to check you agent’s English – and logic.

Mostly, the offers I take are perfect: We sign them as is because the agent knows what it will take to get us to sign them as is – often because I tell them what we’re looking for. But I see a lot more offers than I take, and, for many of them, I would have to recast them by addendum to achieve the Buyer’s Agent’s putative intent – and I am not any of these agents’ broker.

I suspect the rise of the team model is compensation for salespeople who can schmooze but can’t spell. And if you can’t connect the dots between podcasts and illiteracy – there’s a brand new podcast just for you!

How can you tell if your agent can’t read? Well, he can’t write, so that’s easy. But even if he seems to be able to sling a sentence or two, if he can’t spell, he can’t – or doesn’t – read. We retain our memory of how words are spelled by reading them – a lot, every day. People who don’t read spell poorly.

So now what? Duh! Seek elsewhere. An agent who can’t read well has no idea what he’s getting you into.

In other news:

CNBC: More Americans are looking to move as remote work gains acceptance during Covid pandemic.

CNBC: December home prices rose 10.4%, the biggest gain in 7 years, Case-Shiller says.

American Banker: Fed sounds alarm on commercial real estate, business bankruptcy.

Stephen Moore: The Blue States Are Now the Beggar States.

City Journal: Should Public Transit Be Free?

City Journal: Broadway’s Annus Miserable: Live theater has been devastated by the pandemic, and its return remains uncertain.

Margot Cleveland: Supreme Court Denial Of 2020 Election Cases Invites ‘Erosion Of Voter Confidence’.

Overnight News: Want to tell me all about yourself? Don’t bother. Just tell me what you did with your time when you were 13 years old.

Ya think it's easy?

“Dogs aren’t lazy. They’re bored. True for you, too?”

As you may have noted, I am fascinated by my own special set of proxy signals. Supermarket floors must sparkle and everyone is to have been DISCed. I am interested in everyone’s first two decades, and I’ll take that in five-year quadrants – with those first years being the most telling of tells. In the bigger picture: Dad was where, when? Career frustrations? Recurring relationship disasters? I ask the questions that make the grown-ups cry.

Here’s a tell for the people you find at the top of any merit-based ziggurat: They all have Thirteen Privilege: They were not wasting their time at age 13.

True or false? Qui non est hodie cras minus aptus erit. At 13, the academically-ambitious Cautious students (aka ‘The Front Row Kids’) could translate that for you – except they were too busy being even more over-prepared for tomorrow’s homework. At 13, the Driven kids were driving their teachers crazy – and bringing home trophies or building the future after school. At 13, the outstanding Incandescents were painstakingly navigating the route to Carnegie Hall – practice, practice, practice.

The attack on merit is a usurpation of invested effort – seizing that Thirteen Privilege away from the hard-working people who earned it, socializing to anyone who didn’t.

Classical music excludes lazy musicians, so it must go. Pro sports teams exclude lazy athletes, so presumably that will have to be corrected, in due course, as well. We depend for our lives on people who were very serious and very busy at age 13, so we must do as much as possible to punish and abuse those people.

We must not only deny them the benefit of their arduous labor, we must also deny ourselves the further fruits of their labors. Their glaring Thirteen Privilege not only denies us jobs we’re not qualified to do, it puts our entire culture of mediocrity into stark relief. Surely it’s easier to rid the world of virtue than to amend the smallest vice…

In other news:

The New York Post: New York City businesses are barely hanging on.

David Blackmon: What Read more