There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Lending (page 32 of 56)

What caused the housing crisis? Perverse government incentives.

Form an academic paper by George Mason University Economics Professor Russell Roberts:

Beginning in the mid-1990s, home prices in many American cities began a decade-long climb that proved to be an irresistible opportunity for investors. Along the way, a lot of people made a great deal of money. But by the end of the first decade of the twenty- first century, too many of these investments turned out to be much riskier than many people had thought. Homeowners lost their houses, financial institutions imploded, and the entire financial system was in turmoil.

How did this happen? Whose fault was it? Some blame capitalism for being inherently unstable. Some blame Wall Street for its greed, hubris, and stupidity. But greed, hubris, and stupidity are always with us. What changed in recent years that created such a destructive set of decisions that culminated in the collapse of the housing market and the financial system?

In this paper, I argue that public-policy decisions have perverted the incentives that naturally create stability in financial markets and the market for housing. Over the last three decades, government policy has coddled creditors, reducing the risk they face from financing bad investments. Not surprisingly, this encouraged risky investments financed by borrowed money. The increasing use of debt mixed with housing policy, monetary policy, and tax policy crippled the housing market and the financial sector. Wall Street is not blameless in this debacle. It lobbied for the policy decisions that created the mess.

In the United States we like to believe we are a capitalist society based on individual responsibility. But we are what we do. Not what we say we are. Not what we wish to be. But what we do. And what we do in the United States is make it easy to gamble with other people’s money—particularly borrowed money—by making sure that almost everybody who makes bad loans gets his money back anyway. The financial crisis of 2008 was a natural result of these perverse incentives. We must return to the natural incentives of profit and loss if we want to prevent future crises.

Performance Bonds For Real Estate Escrows

The world of distressed real estate (only about 90 of my past 100 transactions) is a funny one; all the rules are different.

The REO sellers are pretty simple.  They have a take it or leave it policy when it comes to negotiations, escrow terms, etc..  Some short sellers however, can be like the  “bait and switch” mortgage brokers of last decade.  The “bait and switch mortgage brokers” would issue a fictional good-faith-estimate prior to pulling credit, getting a good valuation estimate, and checking income.  One week prior to escrow, a “surprise” was discovered, changing loan terms and putting the potential escrow in jeopardy.

Not all “oops” moments were conceived in evil nor should they be attributed to professional incompetence; sometimes; s**t just happens.

A similar trend has developed in short sale real estate agent community.  Like the bait-and switch mortgage broker, some short sale agents low-ball the price, collect offers, submit them to the bank, and pray for a reasonable settlement.  Oftentimes, the counters are far apart from the originally accepted offer.  Sometimes, the term changes are issued after the buyer has become emotionally vested to the property or invested  funds to secure a loan approval for purchase.

I’ll repeat myself; sometimes, s**t just happens.  Other times, the surprises DO come from professional incompetence, poor disclosure and communication, or just plain old deceit. The result is an unhappy buyer or seller.  The collateral damage is consumer mistrust in every agent involved in the transaction.

Rather than vent about the reasons, let’s consider a private market solution to the problems:  Performance Bonds.

Performance bonds, issued by independent insurance companies, could seriously contribute to the #rtb movement.  They can be offered by mortgage originators and listing agents alike.  The credibility of offers to purchase, and listings for sale,  could rise with the attachment of a performance bond into the escrow terms.  Buyers could confidently place non-refundable escrow deposits, knowing that the lender has indemnified them from loss.  Likewise, listing agents could rely on timely execution of the escrow if a lender performance bond were attached.

Performance bonds could lend confidence to short sale transactions, too.  Buyers could enter Read more

FHA/ VA Tip: The Amendatory Clause

Here’s a tip for real estate agents, when presenting an offer with FHA  or VA financing; include the FHA/VA Amendatory Clause to the Purchase Contract as part of the offer.   You’ll save you, the seller’s agent, the escrow company, the lender, and most importantly your buyer, a lot of last minute headaches.

You can download a copy of a templated form here.  Most lenders will accept this templated form.  If you don’t know the agency case number, etc, don’t worry about it.   The most important thing is to get the property address, the buyers’ and sellers’ names and the final contract price on the form.

Why the VA Amendatory Clause doesn’t need to be a “deal killer” for the appraisal contingency clause of a contract:

Contractually, the VA amendatory clause portends a 21-day appraisal contingency period for VA loans.  Pragmatically, the appraisers and underwriters complete their work prior to time limits making the 17-day appraisal contingency of the RPA feasible.  What that means to real estate agents is that it is conceivable that the appraisal contingency MAY have to be extended to 21 days if things go absolutely wrong but that the 17-day contingency period is reasonable for VA loans.

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS:

From a Zillow Consumer:

Who must sign the Amendatory Clause? Two good answers were offered:

by Brenda Zabriskie:  Buyers, sellers, listing agent, and selling agent.  I usually scan it into my computer and send it off to the other Realtor who usually scans it again and sends it back to me.  I’ve never had a problem with having to have originals.  I guess it depends on which bank you are dealing with.

by Timothy Sutherland:  It depends also on the entity selling.  You don’t need it if it’s a bank owned property an FHA/VA/Fannie/Freddie sale.

From another Zillow consumer:

If I’m planning to use an FHA loan, can I order an appraisal in advance? Two good answers:

by Greg Darlin:  Yes, you can order an appraisal but you will be wasting your money.  If you order the appraisal on your own, it will be Read more

Originator Compensation Overhaul to Cost Consumers

I said new legislation would benefit mortgage brokers to the detriment of direct lenders.  In the comments, I feared something insidious might happen (responding to Wayne Long):

WAYNE: “It is interesting that the new rules benefit the broker vs. the direct lender”

BRIAN: It wasn’t by design (which is why I expect legislation that “forbids” my expert opinion on whether a borrower can be approved)

The government-banking complex doesn’t want negotiated rates for any consumer loans.  The government wants to “set” the rates, according to its whim.  That’s price fixing . 

Don’t believe me?  Look at the prestidigitation that just happened in the health care bill.  While you were arguing about the hijack of the health care industry, the Federal government quietly nationalized the student loan industry.

“Good.  Lenders are all thieves anyway!” you snort. 

Think again.  San Diego had a thriving student loan industry until last year.  Thousands of jobs were eliminated with this bill.  Moreover, Grandma can’t buy securities now, collateralized by those student loans, in order to juice up the yield on a portion of her portfolio.  The student loan industry nationalization is just one more way to buy party loyalty from young voters; the base of this Adminstration’s voters.  Loan “grants” will be the “new moniker”, designed to portray the Federal Government as the “kinder, gentler” nanny.

Shall I continue?  When rates fall again (sometime way in the future), the hordes of private companies, wanted to offer graduates a chance to save money, by refinancing or restructuring their student loan debt, won’t be there.  Graduates will be stuck paying above market interest rates, to retire debt.  Forget that the federally-guaranteed student loans inflated college tuitions, this provision raises the overall cost of a college education (the value of which is debatable anyway)

But I digress.

As quickly as you could say “expansion of the size and scope of Government“, did the left hand start new projects, to get you to stop thinking about the right hand’s health care hijack.  Immigration reform is the larger scaled sleight-of-hand but, hidden in the bowels of the Fannie/Freddie takeover, is the anti-consumer price fixing that is being proposed.  Read this:

Geithner called for aligning incentives Read more

Will Pre-Approval Letters Be Banished?

Score one more screw up for the Government-Banking Complex…and watch mortgage brokers thrive because of it.

Andrew Duncan of Keller Williams in Tampa, FL reprinted a Mortgage News Daily story:

As part of the changes to the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, borrowers can no longer shop for a home with a firm loan commitment in hand. While that might not be a big deal in today’s buyer’s market — it could give cash-rich buyers an advantage when sellers are back in the driver’s seat.

Under the new RESPA rule, a lender cannot perform income, asset and credit verifications until the prospective borrower has received a Good Faith Estimate, Patton Boggs LLP Partner Rich Andreano told MortgageDaily.com in a telephone interview. Andreano is a RESPA expert with nearly 25 years’ experience who advises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other providers of mortgage-related services about regulatory compliance and transactional issues.

What this means is that mortgage lenders will be forbidden from performing normal income and asset verifications, or seek permission to perform those tasks, without issuing a binding Good-Faith-Estimate of loan fees.  Pragmatically, this means that most large, direct lenders will not want to commit to the fees until they know the exact loan amount and purchase price.

One more reason to do business with a mortgage broker. Mortgage brokers don’t fund loans, they arrange them.  What mortgage brokers do have in their arsenal is all the pre-approval tools needed to secure an automated underwriting approval.  The new good faith estimate favors brokers because it allows them to fully-disclose the fee they earn for arranging that loan, while putting a time limit on the rate.

Andreano explained that HUD’s position is that verifications cannot be performed until the borrower has been provided with a GFE. But if a loan commitment is issued and the property costs vary significantly — the lender cannot revise the GFE.

“What you can’t do before the consumer gets a GFE in their hands is you can’t ask them to give you any verifying documents, nor can you ask them to give you authority to verify,” he stated. “The lender would be stuck with the cost Read more

Now I’m Beginning To Get It – The Missing Brick In The Wall

My favorite Uncle, Fighter Pilot Dick, sent me this video the other day. I was flabbergasted, which is hard to accomplish lately. I then sent it to a couple of folks for whom I hold much respect, to gain their takes. Both of them are fellow Hounds, Brian Brady and Tony Gallegos.

I thought Brian’s most cogent reply to me during a little back and forth emailing, was the following: Note: The link in Brian’s quote was added by me. It goes to the original video. The embedded video here is the same, but has some CNN commentary up front.

I know the FDIC went out of its way to issue a Press Release, denouncing the guys at Thing Big Work Small.  I know those guys fairly well (had a few beers with them at the CAMB convention this summer).  The FDIC denounced the video as “factually incorrect”, a day after it came out…then…

One West Bank, who bought the IndyMac portfolio for $1.55 Billion, earned 1.57 billion in its first year of operation.  Now Jeff, youi’re a bright guy…what kind of bank earns 100% ROI in one year?

This video explains a whole lot, though I suspect I may be late coming to this party. Considering the reply received from Tony, who said he didn’t know the details of the transaction, I’m thinkin’ maybe we’ve all been missing this particular brick in the wall.

Though CNN doesn’t bollix it up too much, the really good stuff starts around 1:45 on the video. Would love to hear your take.

We are all on welfare now: “The government’s assistance in the housing market now is less about giving us a soft landing than it is about having us furiously flap our arms to stay aloft.”

The Washington Examiner:

The unspoken, bottom line: The federal government has already nationalized the housing industry. We’re not just talking about Uncle Sam providing a few subsidies, or even taking over a few of the big players, as they have in the auto industry. This is a complete takeover. Every new mortgage today is a government mortgage.

Over the last two years, government mortgage and mortgage-backed holdings have grown on net by nearly $1 trillion. Private investors and institutions have shed more than $1.5 trillion — through foreclosure losses, pay downs, and by selling to government.

The effective result is a government-run housing market. Barofsky reports that right now, the government is responsible for about 100 percent of all new mortgage activity. You read that correctly. To put it in his own words:

“According to Federal Reserve net borrowings data, the federal government and the organizations it backs now guarantee or issue almost all net new borrowings for mortgages and MBS.”

Can’t Find A Nut? Search In A Nut House

Mortgage squirrels, searching for some nuts, during what I believe could be a long winter, might consider this idea:

There should be a lot of listings hitting the market when the shadow inventory eventually gets released.  Banks are not very attentive sellers inasmuch as they care less about condition and price than expediency.  Rather than pump money into property improvements or work with HOA’s to get the financial statements in order, they reduce the price until a cash buyer comes along.  Zillow showed us that REOs tend to sell for 3/4 of the market price.

Equity sellers might be having a tough time moving condominiums because (a)- the REOs are priced lower and/or (b) the HOA hasn’t taken the time to secure an FHA and VA approval for the complex.  Mortgage squirrels can focus on (b) and add value to the sellers by broadening the market.  While assisting the HOA secure complex approvals will help the REO sellers, those sellers often prefer cash offers.

Consider targeting condominium owners who have had the property listed for more than 60 days.  Send a letter to the owner and carbon copy the listing agent and HOA President.  Highlight these points in the letter:

  • a complex approved for FHA or VA financing will open up the market and attract owner-occupants
  • more buyers means higher property values
  • gov’t loans are assumable which could translate to even higher values when rates are higher

It is possible that listing agents will be upset with you.  When you explain that you are not an agent and you are trying to help them and their customer to sell the property, they will be open to your proposal.  HOA Presidents may have no clue about this because property management companies (that manage HOAs) typically don’t want to address this with the HOA boards.  The sellers may be skeptical but will offer you a chance to present your proposal.

You have a chance to be a hero with (a) someone who intends to buy another home (b) a selling professional who could be a great referral source for future business. and (c) an influential owner within the complex who might Read more

A Scary Thought on the (Non-Existent?) Shadow Inventory

The shadow inventory has been a topic of interest with almost every agent I talk to lately.  Most believe it is large and few understand why it isn’t in the marketplace rather than held by the banks.  Russell Shaw recently wrote about the shadow inventory being gibberish.   It is an interesting article and one I recommend reading.

I rarely disagree with Mr. Shaw, and rather than do so now I’ll simply suggest that we are talking past one another.  As I read it, he is suggesting that this inventory doesn’t exist because it is, for the most part, out there already; just not listed as REO.  He makes it quite clear, however, that he is not talking about foreclosures still to come. (Apologies to Russell for over-simplifying.)  This is where we begin to part ways.  I submit that the shadow inventory must necessarily include not only actual REOs (or REOs not listed as REOs), but the entire picture.

More to the point, if we look at all the homes that have been foreclosed on, are in foreclosure and should be in foreclosure, we are left scratching our heads and find ourselves back to the same question: why aren’t the banks taking these homes in, putting them on the market, and selling them?   (I’m talking here especially about those homes where people have stopped making their payments and continue to live for 6, 12, even more months.)

MORTGAGES IN DEFAULT
Here’s a graph courtesy of the New York Times:

Sources: Federal Reserve Board and Mortgage Bankers Association, via Haver Analytics

That is an awful lot of mortgages in foreclosure; but add to that that lower line – of mortgages in default and not yet in foreclosure – and the numbers are staggering (again, think of people staying on a year after they’ve stopped making payments).  So no matter what we call it, the question remains: What are the banks doing? Why aren’t these mortgages foreclosed?  Why isn’t this inventory on the market?

I know all real estate is local and there are plenty of areas around this country where the last thing agents want Read more

How Can The iPad Can Change Mortgage Marketing? It’s The App, Stupid

I was plunged into the Apple world when my daughter won an iTouch from a magazine drive.  I dived into it nine months ago when I bought an iPhone.   Here’s why mobile devices work-  you can harness the power of the internet and international communications in your pocket.  To ignore this trend is to deny what most Europeans and Asians already.

Why then are Americans the laggards in the mobile me movement?  I think it’s because we’re wealthier than our cousins across the ponds.  Until we get mobile devices with a readable screen, that aren’t hard to use, we’re going to stay chained to desks or flopped with lap weights.  Americans won’t adapt because we don’t have to…yet.

Enter the iPad.  Everyone can use it and that says a lot about it’s user-friendliness.  More importantly, my father can use it and that says a lot about it’s reach.

What can this  mean to the mortgage industry?

POINT OF SALE: For the most part, mortgage shoppers care less about the loan terms than convenience and the ability to get approved.  I want the ability to give them all three on a mobile app.  I want them, and the real estate agents to use that app to get a pre-approval, check payments and cash-to-close, follow the mortgage market as it relates to their loan approval, and watch the loan process from a magazine sized computer.

MOBILITY:  The loan process lasts 30-150 days.  I want that borrower or agent to check rates and recheck their application status by simply touching that app button.  If  I’ m the user, I want the ability to take a loan application…anywhere:

  • at a Chargers tailgate party while watching the ribs on the BBQ
  • in the schoolyard at my daughter’s school
  • at a Chamber of Commerce networking mixer
  • in a real estate agent’s office
  • at an open house on a Sunday
  • at the beach

COMMUNICATION:  I want to receive a text message every time they open that app and/or login.  I want to know what they’re doing in there so that I can anticipate their questions and perceive their concerns.  I want them to be able to send me a text Read more

Why Stop With the Bath Water When You Can Throw Out the Baby At No Additional Charge?

Full disclosure: I’m neither Democrat nor Republican. I’m neither Mortgage Broker nor Mortgage Banker. I am a consumer – just like you.

I haven’t been over here to play as often as I’d like because of some other projects I’ve been passionately pursuing.  My bad, because this is still the place to be for people with a take.  And I’ve got a take:

What the American public doesn’t know is what makes them the American public, alright?

– Dan Akroyd as Ray Zalinsky in the movie “Tommy Boy”

For the rest of this article to make sense, I’d ask that you take 2 minutes to read this letter authored by Sen. Jeff Merkley to Fed Chair Ben Bernanke dated Dec. 24, 2009.

Here’s the cliff’s notes version the way I read it:

  1. Mortgage brokers are crooks.
  2. The subprime debacle happened because consumers were “tricked” into loans they couldn’t afford to repay.
  3. Eliminating the Yield Spread Premium (YSP) will fix our problems.

To support his argument to kill YSP, Merkley cites a NY Times editorial piece painting the mortgage broker as unethical and the root of the subprime debacle.  Here are a few questions I’d like to pose to the pound for thought and discussion:

  1. YSP existed in its current form up until Jan 1, 2010 – when the new Good Faith Estimate and RESPA rules took effect .  By the way, is there still such a thing as a “subprime loan”?  What banks are writing “subprime loans” today?  Six months ago?  A year ago?
  2. Did it EVER make any sense that a bank would knowingly extend a loan to a borrower who had demonstrated a propensity to default and thus would be more likely than normal to default on their mortgage?  Where is the mention of the “stated income” loans in Merkley’s letter.  Certainly THAT didn’t contribute to the subprime mess, right?
  3. FACT:  today, the mortgage broker CANNOT earn YSP.  YSP belongs to the borrower and may only be rebated to the borrower.

I’m going to repeat that for effect.

  1. Senator Merkley, less than one month ago
  2. Authored a letter (co-signed by approximately 20 other Senators)
  3. In the guise of consumer protection
  4. Calling for the elimination of Read more

Barney Frank: “I believe this committee will be recommending, abolishing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form and coming up with a whole new system of housing finance.”

To say anything at all would be way too much. From the Wall Street Journal:

“The remedy here is…as I believe this committee will be recommending, abolishing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in their current form and coming up with a whole new system of housing finance,” said Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.), the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

His comments initially rippled through bond markets on concerns that the government might pull away from the mortgage market. Many believe that’s unlikely and that any revamp would include continued government involvement. The government took over the companies in September 2008 as loan losses mounted.

Some Republicans have argued that the companies should ultimately be reduced in size and privatized, while at other end of the spectrum, some analysts have recommended turning the companies into government agencies. But several industry groups and academics have suggested that the government is likely to continue playing at least some role in the future of the companies.

One such report came from analysts at Standard & Poor’s this past week. “It’s hard for us to imagine” how enough capital could be attracted to replace Fannie and Freddie with stand-alone private companies that would be able to offer low-cost funding for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the analysts wrote.

Some analysts have argued that starting from scratch could create more problems than they would solve, in part because Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee around half of the nation’s $11 trillion in home mortgages. “Blue sky ideas are great, but they take a long time to happen,” said Mahesh Swaminathan, senior mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse, at a conference last month. “When you have $5 trillion of agency mortgages, you can’t really orphan them.”

Mr. Frank, who didn’t elaborate on forthcoming recommendations, said last month that one possible revamp could merge some functions of Fannie and Freddie that overlap with the Federal Housing Administration into the government mortgage-insurance agency.

My “Jim Casey” take on the FHA’s Policy to Address Risk and Strengthen Finances

“Before I knowed it, I was sayin’ out loud, ‘The hell with it! There ain’t no sin and there ain’t no virtue. There’s just stuff people do. It’s all part of the same thing.” – (Preacher) Jim Casey / Grapes of Wrath

Here’s my take on the FHA 1/20/10 press release and the 1/21/10 Mortgagee letter as posted on my blog on January 21st, 2010:

FHA ANNOUNCES POLICY CHANGES TO ADDRESS RISK AND STRENGTHEN FINANCES

PRESS RELEASE: January 20th, 2010 – Deciphered into (highly biased and subjective) English by me on January 21st, 2010.

I basically cut out a lot of the stuff that doesn’t matter and tried to just talk about what will affect you. If you really want to torture yourself, here’s the original release.

The FHA statement in italics – My translation looks like this…easy to read. Ready? Cool, let’s get down to business then….

New Measures Will Help FHA Better Manage Risk, While Maintaining Support for the Housing Market and Access for Underserved Communities

FHA is hemorrhaging cash due to fraud, rapidly rising defaults and basically because the sleazy sub-prime guys ran around announcing that FHA was the “New Subprime” when everything collapsed in 2007 after Wall St. decided to take the stance that it wasn’t a good idea to allow brokers, lenders and loan officers to give away loans to people that couldn’t afford the payments (even though they started the whole damn thing in the first place).

Who would have though that would come back to haunt them huh? (file this under “ya think?”)

WASHINGTON – Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Commissioner David Stevens today announced a set of policy changes to strengthen the FHA’s capital reserves, while enabling the agency to continue to fulfill its mission to provide access to homeownership for underserved communities. The changes announced today are the latest in a series of changes Stevens has enacted in order to better position the FHA to manage its risk while continuing to support the nation’s housing market recovery.

Ok, blah, blah, blah…We’re making changes to FHA to make it more expensive to get an FHA loan so that less Read more

Unchaining a Bloodhound Pup

It’s funny, I am almost never at a loss for words. I have an opinion on just about any topic and am usually a passionate conversationalist….but put me in the yard with the Big Dogs and I’m feeling a little puppyish (you’ll find that I like to make up words).

To introduce myself I want to tell you about the path that led me here.  I found BHB right as things started to really get hairy in the third and fourth quarter of 2007.

I have to admit I had trouble understanding much of what I read here about technology, SEO and Greg’s passionate dissertations that seemed like they were written in Greek (come to think of it, maybe it was Latin).

I could not resist being drawn to this incredible community of creative, innovative and free thinking professionals sharing openly their trials and their triumphs as they searched for answers when we really didn’t know exactly what the questions were, or what they would be.  It was a true mastermind of master minds.

When I found out about Bloodhound Unchained in 2008 I spent every cent that I had to buy a plane ticket and book a seedy hotel to be there.  I still remember, the cheapest hotel I could find was about a mile and a half from the Heard Museum.  I grew up on a farm in Michigan and figured “a mile and a half, no problem – i can do that in my sleep!”…and I don’t recall any mention on the announcement for Unchained about Arizona heat.  Even in April it was about 109 degrees!

So I showed up every day, lugging my $300 Fry’s laptop that someone lent me the money for, soaking wet, looking like I swam to the event like that dumb Michael Phelps Subway commercial they keep playing during the football playoff games.

I had already read about, and implemented fully without completely understanding,  long tail SEO strategies posted by Greg on the blog.  I was almost blinded by the innovation in the conference and found solace at a time when everything seems like an uphill battle….we’re talking Everest Read more

Adding two hounds to the pound: Introducing Harry Bisel and Scott Schang

As promised, I’m adding two new writers to our pack today.

Scott Schang is a long-time contributor to our comments threads. Scott has come to both of the BloodhoundBlog Unchained events held in Phoenix, and he may be the best success story to come of Unchained so far. Scott has devoted his attentions to honing his prospecting and conversion systems, and he’ll be talking to us about that and more.

Harry Bisel has led a rich, full life. A commercial photographer who made the shift into real estate, and then shifted aback out into real estate photography. Harry’s photos are simply breathtaking, awe-inspiring, everything real estate photography should be.

Both of these gentleman have a ton to teach us. I’m delighted to have them writing with us.