There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Investment (page 9 of 20)

JP Morgan Ups Bid For Bear Stearns

Have we reached the bottom of the credit crisis? Not likely but we are definitely going through, what Barry Johnson calls, price discovery.

From The New York Times via Yahoo News:

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) is in talks to increase its offer for Bear Stearns CosBear Stearns, (BSC.N) to $10 per share in an effort to pacify angry shareholders of Bear Stearns, the New York Times reported in its online edition.

“The Fed, which must approve any new deal, was balking at the new offer price on Sunday night after several days of frantic, secret negotiations,” the newspaper reported, citing people involved in the negotiations.

I said, earlier this week, that this deal may very well QUANTIFY the bottom:

Here’s the part we’re all forgetting. 30% of the Bear Stearns stock is owned by the employees and Joe Lewis own another 10%. Both these “stakeholders” are a tad more than pissed at the weekend looting that happened when the power went out at Bear. Thursday, the stated book value was some $80. The value of their headquarters’ building is eight bucks a share. Manhattan real estate was supposed to be holding up pretty well in this real estate decline. I “get” lowball offers but 20 cents on the dollar for the building and firm that comes with it?

I reported that this was an asset play for JP Morgan, last night; they certainly assume some risk with Bear’s mortgage-laden portfolio. I thought the offer was scary, not derisory when I saw it. A pit formed, in my stomach, when I thought that valuations were THAT low. If Bear Stearns, a respected securities form could be devalued THAT much by mortgages, what would happen to the economy?

Hunker down, folks! Hunker down for a heavyweight fight between Joe Lewis and Jamie Dimon. The currency trader versus the bean counter. The cowboy versus the storekeeper. If we’re fighting about WHERE the bottom is , today, the bottom might be just around the corner.

In my annual market report, I said:

Today, we can feel the bottom amidst the Read more

RealEstateRadioUSA.com’s Barry Cunningham is going to show us all what it sounds like when a big dog howls

If you’re not listening to RealEstateRadioUSA.com, you’re missing out on the most entertaining real estate education your money cannot buy. You can listen live at 1/2/3/4pm, west to east, but the show is also available every day by MP3, so you can take “The Barrys” with you in the car or to the gym.

Today Real Estate Radio USA’s Barry Cunningham joins us as a Bloodhound:

What’s that big, booming voice, piling comedy upon careful calculation? It’s Real Estate Radio USA’s Barry Cunningham, who with co-host Barry Johnson teaches a daily master class on real estate and investing.

Barry is a big man with a big voice, a big personality, and a great big heart. But, ignoring all that, he’s a serious real estate investor with a wealth of hard-won experience. It will be interesting to hear how a really big dog can howl.

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Your rental home in Phoenix will generate positive cash flow — but will it appreciate significantly in the coming years?

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link):

 
Your rental home in Phoenix will generate positive cash flow — but will it appreciate significantly in the coming years?

It’s still a buyer’s market out there, but is it an investor’s market? The answer to that turns on three other issues: Vacancies, values and cash flows.

Lenders get all the blame for the downturn in home values, but that’s not entirely fair. Another big share of the blame goes to the builders, who built new homes far beyond any reasonable estimate of demand. So, even though folks who might have gotten home loans two or three years ago are stuck renting for a while longer, is there enough tenant demand to keep a rental home profitably occupied?

Even if there is, will the prices of Valley homes continue their decline? This seems likely, at least in the near term. There is still a tremendous amount of inventory in the MLS system. The best bargains, though, are houses that are in the foreclosure process. These can be hard to wrest away from lenders, but they may be a leading indicator of the bottom of the market.

More significantly, will a rental purchased at a bargain price throw off positive cash flow? Unequivocally: Yes. To qualify for an investor loan, you will need to have great credit and a 20% down payment. But interest rates are still very low, and rents have held up just fine through the downturn.

So the big bet boils down to this one question: If you buy a rental home in the Phoenix market now, will you be able to sell it at a significant profit eight or ten years from now?

Alas, no one can predict the future. If you pick the right rental home — good house, good location, good orientation, easy access to schools, playgrounds, shopping, freeways and jobs — it should rent well now and resell well later. If you get the right loan and don’t refinance, your income property will actually produce income — which means it will pay for itself and still throw off a Read more

Appraisers – The Latest Target In The Circular Firing Squad

The Blame Game – Go Find A Scapegoat And Pin The Tail On Their Donkey

Pundits pontificate about the reasons that the real estate market is in a shamble, and the latest target in their crosshairs is appraisers.

“Those crooked appraisers jacked up the values of the properties!” they scream.

Last night, Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers and Consultants, was on the Glenn Beck show. Miller agreed that there are fundamental problems regarding how some banks award appraisals to appraisers… and that roughly 80% of appraisers are “in the tank” for the banks.

While I have the greatest respect for Mr. Miller, I don’t believe that the problem with appraisers is so wide-spread. Perhaps in Manhattan – where Mr. Miller specializes – but I don’t believe that 80% of the appraisers nationwide have been corrupted. I do, however, agree that the process could use reform.

Let’s look at the role of the appraiser. S/he is in the business of providing an opinion of value… not a guarantee of value. Their services are NOT required by real estate law – but rather as a requisite of most lenders. Their job is to safeguard the lender from fraud by assuring the lender that the collateral for the loan is sufficient.

In a rising market, an appraiser takes recent sales into consideration… but must also allow for a free market causing the values to rise. After all, what is a better indicator of market value than a willing, ready and able buyer who places an offer on the table? Is that not the true definition of market value?

I have seen many transactions that are questionable, but the vast majority of them have been well within the acceptable range of value, IMHO.

While there have been – and still are – instances of fraud involving appraisers, these instances have been the exception and not the rule… and certainly not the reason for an over-exuberant run-up in real estate prices.

In reality – there is no single factor that you can attribute to this mess.

No, ladies and gentlemen, the fault does not lie with the appraiser. In Read more

Don’t Cut The Granite

Marketeers and salespeople often use the phrase “think outside the box”.  And when the phrase is used in that way, I usually think of clever, creative marketing and promotional stuff.

People involved in the day to day operation of rental properties, tend to think in more practical and pragmatic terms.  Heaters need to be fixed, sewer drains need to be unclogged.  Drain augers exist in a world that is somehow outside of any box/unbox metaphor.

However, one of the finest real world examples of thinking outside the box I have ever experienced, came from a low budget contractor during a kitchen renovation.

The tenants had left the property, a single family home, in sorrowful condition.  The kitchen had to be gutted.

Our low budget contractor had managed to salvage a rather nice granite countertop from somewhere else.  No, I didn’t ask where.  I’m not sure I wanted to know the details.

One little problem though, the countertop was just about three inches too long to fit in our subject property’s kitchen.  And the contractor did not have any tool that could be trusted to safely and cleanly make a straight cut in the granite to lob off those excess inches.

The solution?  The kitchen wall at the side, abutting the short side of the countertop — He cut a slot slotinwallhere1.jpgin the drywall, to allow those extra three inches of countertop to just simply slide into the wall.  Then he patched up the slot, sealed the wall and caulked it.  Done!

My marketing friends will probably find a slogan here “Don’t Cut The Granite, When You Can Cut The Wall!”  And that’s great, take from it what you will. 

I personally learned a subtle little lesson about making things work.  A true moment of epiphany, if you will.  And if I could create a new topic category here on BHB, I would create one titled:  “Epiphany”.

Don’t Panic Over Interrogatories

It starts out as a lovely, sunny, holiday weekend in Southern California. Most of your tenants at the Palm Grove apartments are enjoying a day off, and having a barbecue in the parking lot.

Missy from unit C goes back into her apartment to get a few more cold ones out of the frig, comes out her front door carrying the six pack, somehow trips on the step, falls and fractures her ankle. The other tenants call 911 and Missy is rushed to the hospital.

As a responsible property owner, you will of course immediately report this to your insurance carrier, as soon as you learn of it. Your insurance carrier investigates, and offers Missy a settlement. But Missy’s no fool. She sees the physical injury attorneys that advertise on daytime TV. She rejects the amount offered by your insurance carrier, finds a PI attorney, and files suit.

Being served can ruin your whole day. But as soon as your heart rate returns to normal, you turn the summons over to your insurance carrier. (Note to property owners: While there are lots of ways to cut costs, skimping on liability insurance is never a good place to do it). But even though your insurance carrier provides your defense, you must still participate in the process.

And one of the first events in that process will be answering interrogatories, a formal set of written questions that one party in a lawsuit asks an opposing party. If you are new to litigation, the questions asked in the interrogatories will seem bizarre, obscure and strangely repetitive. You visualise the lawyers pouring over law books and carefully, meticulously crafting each question for maximum effect.

For example: Every set of PI interrogatories I’ve ever seen has contained a question about Sweep Records. Sweep Records? The local supermarket keeps records of how often the parking lot is professionally swept. The owner of a small four-plex probably doesn’t.

Here’s what you need to know: Those questions are canned. Attorneys have been seen in online law forums posting questions about where to obtain interrogatories for their particular case. Attorneys also purchase them on CD from Read more

City of Los Angeles Tenant Relocation Assistance

Rent Control took effect in the City of Los Angeles in 1979.  In February, 1986, provision for tenant relocation assistance was added by amendment.  For the purpose of relocation assistance, the ordinance recognizes two categories of tenants:  Eligible – which is basically everyone, and Qualified – which is any tenant with one or more minor children, or over age 62, or disabled. 

The original amendment mandated that when a landlord evicted a tenant for the landlord’s own occupancy, an eligible tenant would receive $1,000, and a qualified tenant would receive $2,500.  The payment is per entire household, not to each person in the household.  If the eviction is for non-payment of rent or other breach of contract, relocation assistance doesn’t apply.

The relocation assistance amount was increased over the years, with the change taking effect July 1 of each year.  In July 2005, the amount due to eligible tenants was up to 3,200, and the amount due to qualified tenants was $8,000.  On July 1, 2006 the amounts increased to $3,450 and $8,550.

Remember the real estate market in late 2006 and early 2007?  It was still pretty hot,  Developers bought up aging apartment buildings, paid the tenants the required relocation, then tore the apartment buildings down to build condos.

On April 11, 2007, in emergency session, the city council voted in new relocation assistance amounts, effective immediately:  For eligible tenants, $6,810 if they have lived in the unit less than 3 years, $9,040 if they have lived in the unit more than 3 years,  For qualified tenants:  $,14,850 if they have lived in the unit less than 3 years, $17,080 if they have lived in the unit over 3 years.  The city council figured that’ll make the developers think twice before throwing any more tenants out on the street.

I can’t speak for developers, but I can remember when first time home buyers would consider a duplex or triplex as their first property purchase, with the intention of living in one unit, and letting the rents from the other unit(s) help with the mortgage payment.  These new relocation amounts pretty much shut down that particular little niche.

Council members Read more

Los Angeles City Rent Control: Read it and REAP.

I notice my sidebar title is “Investor”.  OK, I can run with that.  But please don’t expect fun and easy tips on how to get rich quick.  I haven’t quite mastered that yet. 

However, as the owner, operator and manager of a few residential rental units within the City of Los Angeles,  I can speak with a little authority on understanding and coping with rent control regulations.

Like any bureaucracy, Los Angeles Housing Dept is alphabet soup of departments, divisions, and special programs.

The acronym that most strikes fear into the heart of Los Angeles property owners is REAP: Rent Escrow Account Program.    Which basically means that if the City determines your property is “unsafe” or “untenantable”, the city collects your rent and places your money in a city escrow account, after first reducing the amount due based on a sliding scale of whether the conditions are “nuisance” or “hazardous”.   You don’t have access to the money.   Administration fees are charged, the City pockets any interest earned.  

But then, the City makes the needed repairs with the money, right?  Hmm, no, not automatically.  The tenants or the property owner must petition for a release of escrowed funds, with the burden on the property owner to show “financial hardship preventing payment of such services beyond a mere negative cash flow for the property.”

“Mere”?

Back in 2001, city controller Laura Chick admitted that the REAP program was “broken“.  To me “broken” implies something that no longer works, but did in fact work at some point in time. 

Speaking as a pragmatist, REAP never worked.  It takes money to make repairs.  Reducing a property owner’s cash flow reduces his or her ability to make the needed repairs.

What would work?  Speaking again as a pragmatist, make low-cost/no-cost funds available to rental property owners for the sole purpose of repairing their properties.

Best Efforts

Case law recognizes that a “best efforts” clause does not obligate the promisor to “spend itself into bankruptcy,” Bloor v. Falstaff Brewing Corp. But it seems like it when your clients find themselves in litigation, even if the claims against them seem ridiculous. I had an old football coach tell me, “Never argue with a fool, because an innocent bystander can’t tell the difference”, but I don’t think that saying applies to the courts.

It appears to me that the more the fool argues his case in front of a judge, throwing as much case law against the wall as possible hoping something sticks, the greater traction his ridiculous argument seems to gain with the court. After watching this practice in action, it appears to me that there is a professional courtesy among attorneys and judges, allowing those drowning in their own legal quicksand enough leeway to spew case law onto the court, like a lifeline they can use to extricate out of the mire, saving face with their clients.

If you’ve ever seen the episode of Man vs. Wild with Baer Grylls in which Baer voluntarily walks into a pit of quicksand, you’ll remember that it takes a certain skill, patience and effort to extricate oneself out of a “jam”. While remaining calm, one must get as much surface area on top of the quicksand without penetrating too deep. In my observations, it seems that the struggling attorney fights to gain “surface area” with the court without allowing any part of his case to penetrate too deeply into the mire, a practice which most judges will allow with some latitude.

Remembering my Physics 101 class (at least I think it’s Physics), every action has a reaction and every argument presented to the court has an appropriate response. Thus, every case law and ridiculous argument must be responded to preserving that your opponent remains mired in legal quicksand. These responses cost time and money, money that your clients must consider prior to entering into any litigation, if they have a choice.

One benefit to commercial litigation (if there is one) versus litigation in an emotionally Read more

So Mr. Buffet Gets Into Insuring Bonds…Then Mr. Ross Gallops In…Coincidence?

Recent events brought to mind an article published last week by one of my all time favorite Wall Street guys, Max Whitmore. In it Mr. Whitmore spoke of what’s been called the PPT, or Plunge Protection Team. The short version says after the October 19, 1987 stock market crash, this team was put together.

It’s existence cannot be proved. (Who cares anyway?) I don’t put any credence in any governmental economic ‘Black Ops Team’. I do however acknowledge documented empirical evidence of something happening. This is especially true when it happens more than once — the exact same way — with the exact same timing.

We can discuss if there really is a ‘who’ behind it over a beer some time.

Anyway, as Mr. Whitmore documents with historical and empirical evidence, there’s been a pattern a few times now, in which stock market moves cannot be explained. They happened. The way they happened are clone-like in their sameness. Clone-like? How ’bout down to a minute or two in real time? Each time they were bottom line effective. The market turned around.

He’s seeing it again. And again he cannot explain it — except for the fact it’s there.

Max Whitmore isn’t just another ‘stock guy’ trying to get publicity. He couldn’t care less. For Heaven’s sakes the last time I checked, the man now works mostly from his home in the midwest. He’s a former S & P trader of the year if memory serves. He’s one of the most revered and respected ‘chartists’ in his industry. In other words, he’s credible in the old school sense of the word.

Masterful segue to Mr. Buffet and Mr. Ross.

Keeping the above in mind, why aren’t we seeing more people reporting on what I’m seeing? Here is another, and here.

The end of 2007 has Buffet getting into the Bond Insurance business. Less than a month later we’re all talking about how to save the bond insurers. Come on now, this isn’t me trying to convince anyone of a new twist on the grassy knoll. This is happening in real time for all to Read more

Tuition Is Expensive At The School Of Hard Knocks

Another Episode Of “It Doesn’t Pay To Be A Cheap Bastard”

In times like these, real estate investors often search for the corners to be cut. While many of the corners should be cut – others should not.

Such is the case of adequate insurance.

Many sellers are having to resort to leasing out their properties. Some of these properties are leased out under a lease-purchase agreement… while others are simply rented out. Their goal is to simply stop the red ink.

When I list a vacant property for sale, one of my areas of discussion with the seller is adequate insurance coverage. And let me tell you – it ain’t cheap. Vacant homes are not only more susceptible to vandalism, but when something like a pipe breaks or some bad wiring starts a fire – the damage is usually far greater than a home which is occupied.

This increase in premium can triple your insurance costs… or more.

But a vacant property is not the only concern. If you rent or lease your property, you would be well-advised to report this to your insurance company so that they can ensure your policy will maintain its coverage under that particular scenario.

Case in point is a recent tale of woe told to me by a lender who was about to fund a new investment property for one of her clients. This client had a property in Florida that he had lease-purchased to a tenant who had been paying their rent in a timely manner. But shortly before closing on his new property – the neighbors of his lease-purchase tenants called him up to inform him that the tenants left in the middle of the night.

At first blush, this only seemed to be a big nuisance to her client, as the tenants had posted a $10K non-refundable deposit… so he went down to Florida to check it out.

And this is where the other shoe drops.

The tenants had torn the place up. With a vengeance. Stole all the fixtures… even the cabinets in the kitchen. The damage was so extensive – it made that $10K deposit pale in comparison.

My Read more

Want A Retirement The Equivalent Of House Arrest? Grandpa Economics Is Your Best Bet

For years I’ve put forth the principle of Grandpa Economics. I coined the phrase years and years ago. Stated simply — Relying on savings + a free and clear home + Social Security will land you in the poor house not too many years after your retirement party is long forgotten.

The solution? Understand Grandpa lived in a world playing by starkly different rules. Those rules haven’t applied since 1980. The template now calls for investing with a prudent, thoughtful Plan — using a long term, or big picture view. I prefer real estate. Duh. Frankly, whatever floats your boat and gets you to retirement with a big enough pot of gold, will do the trick.

As I say over and over it seems lately — nobody gives a damn how the cat was skinned, until they find out if the cat was skinned. If you hit retirement with a basket of capital/equity requiring two commas, and preferably beginning with a ‘2’ — you’ve skinned the cat. 🙂

The Boss is always on the lookout for helpful posts and articles. She hit platinum pay dirt with a story put out by AP concerning a victim of Grandpa Economics. Today I published an in depth post based on AP’s article. The post points out the empirical, what I’d say are the predictable consequences of following Grandpa’s path to retirement.

For the skeptics who often wonder why I’m so passionate about this topic, read the post and ask yourself how your own parents and/or grandparents are currently faring. I hope they’re in the ‘high grass’. If not, are they fine due to their own efforts, or because you’re steppin’ up to the plate?

I’d love to hear your thoughts, as this story is gonna become common before you know it. Grandpa Economics is creating a new class of people while we watch in real time.

Mortgage Cicerone: Tony Gallegos

Tony Gallegos posted his top bloggers’ list of 2007.

Many of the lists published are a beauty pageant and none, to this date, mean a whole lot to MY industry; residential real estate finance. Tony’s participation in MTG.net is a measured and intelligent position. It has to be; Tony is a senior executive for a big bank. While the originators were bickering with The X Broker, Tony was pointing out the strength of both sides’ arguments. When I chronicled the curse at Countrywide, the Countrywide employees went bonkers. Tony offered measured but cautionary advice to those folks about the reality that lurked in the bowels of the balance sheet.

If you’re a loan originator, Tony’s the real deal. He closed 400 units in one year. Here’s the trick; he did it with one processor, no team…just one processor. What this whole thing means, if you’re a loan originator, is that you listen to Tony Gallegos and you read The Mortgage Cicerone. If strength comes from restraint, Tony is the modern day Charles Atlas. While you won’t see him writing many opinion pieces (as bank executives shouldn’t), you will see him pointing you to relevant information…like a guide, a Cicerone.

The Mortgage Cicerone points us to three unsung voices in his 2007 list:

Joe Zekas from Yo! Chicago. I met Joe, on Active Rain, last year. One thing I’ve learned to dread is the Zekas comment; they’re always incisive and usually correct. Joe takes on the MSM in this post but don’t start cheering. Two of my favorite Zekasms are his take on treating people like leads and his rules for what NOT to do on a weblog. Even more astounding are: 1. some genius hasn’t called him arrogant and 2. there is no Fake Joe Zekas blog floating around the internet.

Brett Rogers, of BeatCanvas.org , offers intelligent commentary. His post, The Second Handers, summed up my thoughts about the rugged individualism that made this country great.

Dan Melson, of Searchlight Crusade, is one Read more

Florida First, Certainly California, Next Nevada,and Absolutely Arizona

Lenders don’t love us no’ mo’. Want a vacation crib in Miami? How about an investment property in Orlando? Show up with 40%, no seller carry-backs allowed, thankyouverymuch.

This e-mail came in this morning from IndyMac Bank :

Florida Guideline Restrictions

Transactions securing properties located in the state of Florida are subject to the following restrictions/limitations:


For all Loan Programs:

  • All loans are restricted to Full Documentation

  • Primary Residence transactions:

  • – The maximum LTV and CLTV otherwise available for the transaction type must be reduced by 5%.
    – The Borrower’s current primary residence must be sold and closed prior to,
    or concurrently with Indymac’s funding.
    – If the to-be-secured property is a single family residence, condominium or planned unit development, it must be located within an established project. An established project is one in which 90% of the total project units have been sold, and the subject property has been previously occupied / owned by someone other than the developer.

  • Second Home and Investment Property transactions are limited to a maximum 60% LTV / CLTV.

Remember I said, back on April 1, 2007 that IndyMac was conservative? Every other lender followed suit. Today it’s Florida; the other three states will be next. This is why my outlook for housing in 2008 is bleak.

Do not despair, though. While this will virtually halt activity it will “right-price” (that’s my new phrase) the market…QUICKLY. Expect Florida prices to drop like a ball off a table, in February, when the rest of the lenders pucker.

…and then there will be buyers. Oh, there will be buyers.

PS: If I sound giddy it’s because the “muddy waters keep getting clearer” and I can see the bottom.

Shift Happens

First off, I am feeling a little guilty for not being able to keep up with Greg’s writing production, or Geno’s proclivity for the English language (I am, but a young “padawan” in master Yoda’s presence). That being said, we all have bills to pay and I have been painfully buried in required due diligence that a new listing demands in the midst of the end of the year holiday rush. I know I’m considered the commercial specialist in this forum and may have not been pulling my weight around here as far as my production is concerned, but it has become apparent (at least to me) that the recent slowdown in housing shall inevitably be felt by those businesses (and properties associated with those businesses) most closely tied to the residential markets, especially in the hardest hit residential areas, as referenced in today’s “town hall meeting” with Treasury Secretary Paulson and the Governator in Sacramento:Town Hall Meeting

At a town hall-style event in Van Buskirk Community Center here, Paulson and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger spent more than an hour listening as local officials, loan counselors, community members and borrowers described the troubles they were having getting help from their lenders.

“Unfortunately, there (are) all too many stories like yours in the country,” Paulson told one borrower who said she could no longer refinance her home and would almost certainly lose it. “This is why we’re trying to find solutions.”

What most of us know (but secretly sweep under the rugs in of our minds) is that there is a “spill over” effect from residential to commercial that we hope doesn’t affect our own checking accounts. We’re use to hearing the obvious verification of current events:

That plan came just weeks after Schwarzenegger announced a similar agreement with four lenders he said represented 25 percent of California’s subprime loans. On Tuesday, the governor said three more lenders have joined the voluntary pact, covering about one-third of the state’s most troubled loans.

California is home to the nation’s largest numbers of foreclosures – more than 52,000 so far this year, according to DataQuick.

Paulson promised to investigate the claim of Read more