You heard it here first. Canadian real estate is in the danger zone. Well, maybe not all of Canada’s housing stock will fall but the Western provinces look overvalued. If you subscribe to my site, you heard about this over the weekend.
It all started back in 2003. A barrel of oil was trading around $30. Then, we liberated Iraq from Saddam Hussein. Oil spiked up then retreated to the mid 30s for the rest of 2003. Dubya landed on an aircraft carrier, proclaimed “Mission Accomplished”, and the war was over.
Kind of. Then, the “police action” started. That’s when the rapid ascent started in oil prices. By the middle of 2005, we crossed the $60 threshold. Then Dubya pushed the food for fuel policy that caused our farmers to reallocate their crops to refiners rather than grocers. In the past 18 months, the price of oil doubled. We called this commodities-push inflation at Bartley Hall. The discretionary dollars got crunched by triple digit tanks and five digit mortgage payments and America became a subprime nation….
…and Western Canada got rich….so they all bought real estate.
In commodities-rich Canada, they prided themselves on “sober” lending guidelines. No sub-prime mortgages and a heavily regulated mortgage industry insured that the irrational exuberance we displayed in The States wouldn’t mirror up north. Then, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) ripped a page from the Wall Street playbook, extended the amortizations, lowered the down payment requirements, and it was the wild, wild west, all over again. Same scene; different location.
American real estate crashed, the Fed lowered rates, and the US dollar tanked. In late 2007, the loonie reached parity with the dollar. In Calgary, the median price was $200,000 (Can), in 2000. It grew to $250,000 (Can) in 2005. It grew to $417,000 (Can) in 2007 (suspiciously with the rise in oil prices). If you bought an Calgary investment property, in 2000, you doubled your money. This chart shows that household incomes spiked along with Read more