There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Investment (page 8 of 20)

Canadian Housing Crash Could Induce More Investing in America

You heard it here first. Canadian real estate is in the danger zone. Well, maybe not all of Canada’s housing stock will fall but the Western provinces look overvalued. If you subscribe to my site, you heard about this over the weekend.

It all started back in 2003. A barrel of oil was trading around $30. Then, we liberated Iraq from Saddam Hussein. Oil spiked up then retreated to the mid 30s for the rest of 2003. Dubya landed on an aircraft carrier, proclaimed “Mission Accomplished”, and the war was over.

Kind of. Then, the “police action” started. That’s when the rapid ascent started in oil prices. By the middle of 2005, we crossed the $60 threshold. Then Dubya pushed the food for fuel policy that caused our farmers to reallocate their crops to refiners rather than grocers. In the past 18 months, the price of oil doubled. We called this commodities-push inflation at Bartley Hall. The discretionary dollars got crunched by triple digit tanks and five digit mortgage payments and America became a subprime nation….

…and Western Canada got rich….so they all bought real estate.

In commodities-rich Canada, they prided themselves on “sober” lending guidelines. No sub-prime mortgages and a heavily regulated mortgage industry insured that the irrational exuberance we displayed in The States wouldn’t mirror up north. Then, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) ripped a page from the Wall Street playbook, extended the amortizations, lowered the down payment requirements, and it was the wild, wild west, all over again. Same scene; different location.

American real estate crashed, the Fed lowered rates, and the US dollar tanked. In late 2007, the loonie reached parity with the dollar. In Calgary, the median price was $200,000 (Can), in 2000. It grew to $250,000 (Can) in 2005. It grew to $417,000 (Can) in 2007 (suspiciously with the rise in oil prices). If you bought an Calgary investment property, in 2000, you doubled your money. This chart shows that household incomes spiked along with Read more

Every Day Is A Good Day To Invest In Phoenix Real Estate

Every day is a great day to buy a single family home, even in Phoenix. That ought to rile up the analytical types here. Of course, that same principle applies to the stock market, as well.

I started my career as a “Financial Consultant” but was mentored by some fellas who preferred to be called “Customer’s Man” (title preserved with apologies to the fairer gender). My tutors would buy me a scotch in Suburban Station, then ride the R5-Paoli Local home with me. I’d receive a 70-minute lesson about how and when to buy stocks for clients. The first lesson was that every day was a good day to own a good company.

Of course, the part I’m leaving out is that price and underlying quality were important factors in the investment decision- fundamentals rule when it comes to long-term investing. These Customer’s Men weren’t the Bud Fox-type on Wall Street, churning clients’ accounts, they were more like the character Hal Holbrook played (Stick to the fundamentals. That’s how IBM and Hilton were built. Good things, sometimes, take time).

The same principle can be applied to real estate. Greg Swann did his best Hal Holbrook impression with this article in the Arizona Republic. The fundamentals are fabulous for Maricopa County real estate. Three people move into Maricopa County for every two people that leave every year; that’s a growing population. The local economy is diversifying with small businesses leading the way. An expanding economic base and a growing population make for an attractive situation for landlords.

Are the long-term prospects for Phoenix real estate good? The fundamentals would have you believe that they are. Lawrence Yun predicted a 50% rise in Phoenix housing prices in a five year period; I commented that it may take ten years. Still, 50% over ten years is a helluva return, when leveraged four to one. Invest $100,000 in Phoenix real estate today, and you could conceivably receive a triple in your original investment, ten years from now. That Read more

Has the Phoenix real estate market turned the corner? It’s too early to tell, but May’s results suggest we may be nearing the bottom

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Has the Phoenix real estate market turned the corner? It’s too early to tell, but May’s results suggest we may be nearing the bottom

Are you in the mood for some good real estate news for a change? How about some news that’s not all bad? Here’s what news there is, in any case:

May was a very strong month for clearing bread-and-butter inventory in the Phoenix real estate market. BloodhoundRealty.com tracks sales of newer suburban tract homes — three bedroom, two bath, single-story homes with tile roofs and two-car garages — the middle of the housing-supply bell curve.

We have records going back to January of 2004, so we have tracked both the boom and the bust in our recent real estate history. May 2008 was the strongest month for the homes we track since May of 2007, with the best month before then being November of 2006. A total of 170 of these homes sold in May, up from 114 in April.

Prices were down, month over month, and not by just a little bit, so May’s results no doubt reflect the sale of a lot of lender-owned properties. But inventories of the homes we track are down by 7% from April and by over 14% from March.

The implied absorption rate from May’s results is 5.2 months, down from 8.4 months for April. Absorption rate is the amount of time it would take to absorb all currently-available inventory at the current rate of sales.

The absorption rate calculation is less than reliable, since it uses backward-looking numbers to make a forward-looking projection. But substantially greater sales taken together with substantially lower inventories is a very good sign.

As a matter of anecdotal evidence, earlier this week I phoned the listing agent of a very market-weary short sale. After months of no activity, three offers came in over the weekend. The seller issued multiple counter-offers, with the high-bid being $17,000 over the list price.

So has the Phoenix real estate market finally turned the corner? We won’t know for sure for two or three months Read more

Planning to retire at 50? Good on ya! Have you made plans for living a hundred years beyond that? In a world that changes like dreams?

Unless you come down with a fatal disease or find yourself in a gun battle, you’re probably going to live a lot longer than you ever imagined. This week’s news is interesting, but life-extension is a secondary consequence of everything associated with free markets. That trend is centuries old by now — better food and water, personal hygiene, continuous improvements in medicine, the widespread availability of something as mundane as fresh cow’s milk.

And just think how much longer and richer your life could be if you weren’t carrying 50% or more in parasitic government weight on your back. The interesting thing is that the rate of change is increasing far faster than governments and other misanthropes can drag it down. My own personal dictum has always been, “They can’t enslave us if they can’t catch us.” The literate third of the globe is at that point now. The other two thirds are just a few years away. If we can navigate the next few years without blowing ourselves up, we will reach a point where the average middle class household in the United States will control more real wealth than entire countries would have owned just a few centuries ago.

I’m sure I’ve cited this before, and this version of the film is an antique by now — it’s almost a year old — but this is a very compelling presentation:

Of course you cannot make any detailed plans about living decades longer than you expected with everything changing constantly — and at an ever-accelerating rate of change. The truth of the matter is, if you live to be 150 years old, you have a decent chance of living forever. The even more startling truth is that the ever-accelerating rate of change in all branches of technology is racing us toward a singularity, a point where all of our models of understanding break down and we have no rational means of predicting what will happen.

No one can predict the future more than a few years out, but what you can do is reprogram your mind. In omnia paratus — prepared for everything. If Read more

Who Should Use EIUL’s — 401(k)’s Aren’t Cutting It For Most

Equity Indexed Universal Life is, when simplified, investment grade insurance. It’s a tool, a vehicle used by folks to create retirement income. I’ve written of this before, much to the chagrin of Mr. Swann. I’ve since put many clients into them using industry experts. Why? ‘Cuz it’s the right thing to do. Every dollar a client spends on this vehicle is a buck they’re not spending with me. I make zip, nada, zilch. They understand this, and appreciate it. They’ve come to rely on our consistent congruency when it comes to keeping their agenda #1. And their agenda is a magnificently abundant retirement. We make use of what i’ve called a Purposeful Plan. Sometimes that Plan includes investment vehicles other than real estate. We do what works.

EIUL’s work.

As a favor to Greg, though he didn’t ask, I’ve moved this party over to my place. Last time I think his head almost exploded when this subject came up here. People tend to get upset when it’s their ox being gored. Heck, I’m goring my own ox with this one. But again, it’s the right thing to do much of the time.

David Shafer is the guy who will answer your technical questions for this post. He recently wrote a guest post on BawldGuy Talking explaining why and when taxpayers would opt for an EIUL over their qualified retirement plan.

Soon, I’ll be writing a piece referencing a recent 20 year study showing mutual fund returns inside 401(k)’s have been less than 5% annually. And this study is used as a marketing tool. Go figure. I’ll make the study available, probably in dual form with David’s site. This study sheds light on the dirty little truth about mutual funds and their performance inside taxpayers’ qualified retirement plans.

  • Folks aren’t starting with realistic numbers. Mutual fund returns in 401(k)’s not good.
  • Front loading EIUL is best — drives down the cost of the insurance.
  • Your combined income tax rate is over 15%? Then numbers skew toward EIUL.
  • The higher the combined retirement income tax bracket, the more the numbers favor EIUL
  • EIUL never tells you when you Read more
  • Looking for the bottom? Real estate speculators are establishing the bottom-dollar price for lender-owned homes in Phoenix

    This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

     
    Looking for the bottom? Real estate speculators are establishing the bottom-dollar price for lender-owned homes in Phoenix

    If you’re looking for the bottom of the real estate market in Phoenix, chances are it’s right up the block. It’s that house with the jungle of overgrown weeds in front.

    It used to be for sale. Then it was a short sale. By now it’s lender-owned. A year ago it might have been listed for $250,000. Now the price has been slashed to $120,000 — maybe less.

    That’s a sad story, particularly if you knew the owners. And now, as you watch the parade of investors checking it out, you might feel a certain anger toward them.

    If so, your anger is misdirected. Between syrupy books and movies and high-strung high-school-teachers, we have been indoctrinated to despise speculators. But the truth is, speculators are the garbage collectors of capitalism. They come in and clean up messes they did not create, returning productive value to underperforming assets.

    It you’re looking for a villain in these stories, look to the borrower, to the lender or just to the vicissitudes of life. But it is the speculators who are going to bring the real estate market back to a viable state.

    How? By establishing the bottom-dollar price.

    What is your home really worth right now? It’s worth as much as the lowest-price lender-owned comparable plus the cost of returning that home to turn-key condition plus a small convenience premium. In other words, if the lender-owned house sells for $120,000, and if it will take $10,000 to make it as nice as your home, then your home is worth $135,000 — $140,000 at most.

    And if you’re not willing to sell you home for that price? Get it off the market right now. It will not sell for more, but the surplus of over-priced inventory is a false signal to buyers that the market has not found its bottom.

    If you must sell into this market, you’ll sell at the market price. If you can afford to wait, you will almost certainly do better Read more

    Going Postal — From The ‘You Can’t Make This Up’ File

    Here’s a hot button for real estate agents and mortgage brokers. You’ll recognize this immediately. Your’re dealing with a problem, searching for a solution with a service provider or a vendor. The person on the other end of the phone says something which clearly and expertly outlines the solution that isn’t a solution. In fact it’s so not the solution, you begin wondering if you’ve missed something. It’s at that precise moment your mind conjures up a vivid picture of the Captain Obvious who just offered this Solomonic pearl of wisdom bursting into flames.

    What possesses people to list all the ways something can’t be done? Not being a graduate of PCU (Politically Correct University), I apologize in advance for the following. My intention is not to hurt feelings, but to understand. No really — stop giggling.

    In all my years in the real estate business I’ve only used a handful of escrow officers, title companies, lenders, etc. What they share is the ability to look for ways to get things done, instead of replaying the video, looped to the scene explaining how it absolutely can’t be accomplished. Why do people in service industries do this? More to the point — why are they kept on the job after their bosses figure this out?

    Here’s an example. I Pinky-Swear this is true. (Brian Brady will back me up.) In fact you’ll know it’s true as nobody would make up something so clearly stolen from the classic Abbot and Costello routine, Who’s On First.

    I’m hoping Brian Brady posts on this, as he was the initial mortgage guy victimized by the appraiser’s laziness and incompetence. Countless times I was amazed Brian didn’t resort to asking the appraiser if he was stoopid. Looking back, it was probably ‘cuz he wasn’t sure the guy would understand the question.

    A couple clients contracted to buy multiple investment properties in Texas. We began the loan process which of course necessitated appraisals. Apparently the appraiser made a mistake by checking the box stating the subject property was part of a P.U.D. — Planned Unit Development. Bottom line, this Read more

    Are you an investor looking for a rental home that will stay rented? Buy a home that’s worth living in

    This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link). I wrote this last Tuesday, but it coincides nicely with Barry’s post this morning.

     
    Are you an investor looking for a rental home that will stay rented? Buy a home that’s worth living in

    I represented tenants for my first two years as a real estate licensee. Working with tenants didn’t pay very well, but it was a good way to get a lot of real estate experience very fast. Gradually I started working with home buyers, and then with home sellers. By now, I only work with tenants as a courtesy. It still doesn’t pay very well.

    But in those two years, I saw an awful lot of rental homes. Or, more precisely, a lot of awful rental homes. Again and again, I would find myself wondering why anyone would think a particular house would be appealing to tenants. Not just the condition of the property, often atrocious, but simply the location itself. It’s astounding to me how many vacant rentals are situated nowhere near where tenants might want to live.

    In the years since then, I’ve represented a huge number of investors. Market conditions haven’t been kind to them lately, but Phoenix is once again a market ripe for landlords. Prices are low and cash flows are positive. If landlords buy the right properties to use as rentals, the homes should rent quickly and stay rented.

    So which homes will work best as rentals?

    I’m looking for a home in a built-out suburb. Buckeye is a bargain for owner-occupants, but why would tenants move to a town with no employment base? What I want are jobs, schools, shopping and entertainment, all nearby, with decent freeway and bus access. I want a north-facing home; tenants read their power bills, too.

    Am I looking for the cheapest house? No. Price matters, but what matters more is livability. Parents worry about the kids taking a header down the stairs, so I want a single-story home. There has to be at least a little grass in the back yard so toddlers can romp.

    Here’s the magic bullet: If Read more

    Are You Still Waiting For Her To Come Back?

    So much of the country hasn’t experienced the 15-40% annual appreciation rates places like San Diego have experienced several times. Regardless of the down times, we’ve learned she always comes back smiling. The market? In the end, she would always love us. She always has. Though at times she could lash out, she always made up for it with lavish gifts of abundant appreciation. That may still be the case in regions like SoCal, but it’s my belief it won’t include the vast majority of residential income property.

    There are several reasons allowing investors to conclude this. I wrote about many of those reasons in over at my place, adding a video for fun.

    First and foremost, developers paid attention in eighth grade math class. They can make $X building duplexes or fourplexes and the like OR $X+ building condos/townhomes OR $X+++ building single family residences — and all on the same piece of dirt. Go figure, they chose to build where they found the most profit. This has been happening in places like San Diego since the ’80’s.

    The only residential income product built since then has been recently. It’s been concentrated on the coast and upper income locations with rents that are incredibly high. These newish projects are not competition, nor do they have any positive affect on the values, rents, or vacancy rates of 35 year old duplexes. Duh.

    An example is a new place offering 1 bedroom apartments for twice the rent of competition half a mile away. Twice as much. They also offer their tenants everything but a Friday night date — something I’m sure they’ll correct upon reading this.

    The point is that the market? She’s left you. And she ain’t coming back no matter how much you turn on the old charm. When investors have the choice of putting less than 35-50% down just to break even, they’ll do it. The party’s over. Capital flows to the best returns. Duh. So why do folks in places like uh, the west coast for instance, insist things will revert to the status quo they’ve relied upon for so Read more

    Who knew? It turns out condotels stink as a real estate investment

    “Hey, pal, let’s make a deal. You can be in the taxi business just like that! Here’s how. You buy my cab, see? You own it, pay the note on it, handle the maintenance, all that stuff. But you won’t have to work all those crazy hours driving the cab, see? I’ll drive it for you, and we’ll split the meter. How can you lose?”

    Or, to put an even funnier spin on it: What, would you suppose, is an even stupider real estate “investment” than a time share?

    The Wall Street Journal has all the answers…

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    Black Pearl Marketing Minute: How did Brian Brady get to be Canada’s Favorite American Mortgage Broker?

    If you search on Google.com for canadian real estate american mortgage what do you find?

    Brian Brady, of course, Canada’s Favorite American Mortgage Broker.

    In the podcast liked below, Brian discusses the strategy he deployed to dominate many Search Engine Results Pages for Canadian investors looking to pick up American bargains while the loonie is near parity with the U.S. dollar.

    Here’s the battle plan in miniature: Be found, be food, be funded. You have to write content that will score well on search pages or over-the-transom clients will never find you. Once they’ve landed on your site, you have to feed them the information they’re hungry for — all they can eat. And once they’ve decided to do business with you, you have to be able to deliver your product when and as promised.

    Are we talking about underwriting rental property loans for prosperous Canadian investors? Or are we talking about your business? Listen to the podcast to find out.

    BlackPearlMarketingMinute040208.mp3

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    Flipping Homes: A Closer Look

    First of all let me say that I distinguish between fraud and flipping. When professionals collude to trick sellers into taking a low price, then flip the home for a profit in a short time, this is not what I’m talking about, and it shouldn’t cloud the issue of flipping. Why do we always take the worst practices and make that the norm?

    Hell, let’s change the name to something that better represents what I consider a legitimate real estate practice — let’s call it BuyRebuild&Sell (BRS) — it sounds like Briz, so let’s call it Brizzing, in order to give it dignity and a cool name.

    So there is this dog of a house uglying up the neighborhood and no one wants to buy it. I come along and look at the home — yet I’m looking at it in a different way — I look at its soul. The poor darling is sitting there being made fun of, people are even cursing it — That damn ugly house! It’s killing values! Some even secretly wish it would burn down.

    Now, I’m a compassionate person, and I’ve always rooted for the underdog and tried to protect those who were bullied and ridiculed for their appearance. And I’m a businessman. Yep, I’m a crude businessman who likes to make a profit.

    I say to myself, this poor house needs brizzing. I’m a good brizzer — I’ve brizzed over a dozen houses now. It’s funny how some people look at brizzing — they like the fact the house has been brizzed but they hate the profit you make off brizzing. “I know what you paid for that dog of a house!” — “You are charging what? You only paid $60,000 for it!”

    Yes, but I brizzed it, you dope! I took a chance on this poor ugly house when no one else would. I didn’t sit back and make fun of it and curse it, I brizzed it! I could have lost my butt on this, but I believed in this house — I saw its soul! And, I’m a businessman. I’m a crude businessman who likes to make a profit. So, shut Read more

    Black Pearl Marketing Minute: Jeff Brown, discount lister?

    The other morning, Bawldguy Jeff Brown left this note in a comment:

    I’m jumping back into the San Diego investment property market as a lister. I’ve been ignoring my home folks since late ‘03.

    I’m gonna be offering a broadly different choice for the seller. I’ll charge NO listing commission, but a small monthly fee for ongoing marketing, and my carrying costs at Starbucks.

    Now that’s intriguing, ain’t it?

    It’s been gnawing at me, so I called Jeff to talk to him about it. He explains it in his own words in the podcast linked below, but stop for a moment and generalize, if you will.

    If you’re in a market with a surfeit of inventory, sellers are not the kind of blue chip asset they might have been a few years ago. Qualified buyers on the other hand…

    If you can sell your sellers on the idea that, like Jeff, you will give them a knock-your-socks-off listing at a price that will save them some money, you will have acquired inventory you can use to attract buyers. I think you would have to list like Jeff plans to, totally turn-key — and you’ll have to decide where you stand on dual agency. But if listing stronger for less attracts more buyers, what do you have to lose?

    Since he’s working with investors, Jeff’s strategy is even more intricate than that. Give a listen and see what you think.

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    Urbanologist Joel Kotkin: Why growth-oriented cities like Houston, Phoenix and Atlanta reflect the future of global commerce

    Joel Kotkin is the only American urbanologist who can tolerate actual living human beings. In consequence, he can write about the organic growth of cities as they really are, rather than as he might remake them with enough tax money and firepower. This is a long extract from a much longer article about Houston’s emergence as a world-class city, this despite the scorn that might be heaped upon it — at tax-payer expense — by urban monument-builders like Richard Florida. In this section of the article, Kotkin discusses what makes young, growth-oriented cities so dynamic by comparison to older, more-typically-urban urban environments.

    Ultimately, it’s a question of defining what makes a city great. Many city planners today focus largely on aesthetics, the arts, and the perception of being “cool.” Academics and many economic-development experts link urban success to cities’ appeal to the “creative class” of college-educated young people. In this calculus, the traditional practice of gauging a city’s success by studying patterns of population or employment growth, or noting the opportunities available for working-class or middle-class families to flourish, rarely registers as important. One prominent academic, Rutgers University’s Paul Gottlieb, has even offered an elegant formula for what he calls “growth without growth”—focusing on increasing per-capita incomes without expanding either population or employment. Indeed, Gottlieb suggests that successful post-industrial cities might well do best if they actually “minimize” the influx of new people and jobs.

    Such an approach may work, at least superficially, in an attractive older city such as Chicago, New York, or Boston, but it’s an unlikely model for most cities in a country where the population is expected to reach 420 million by 2050. Growth-without-growth cities might be great to visit, and they might prove exciting homes for the restless young or the rich, but it is doubtful that they can create the jobs or the housing for more than a small portion of our future urban population. For these and other reasons, the Houston model of the opportunity city—welcoming new jobs and new families—may prove far more relevant to the American future.

    Chicago, the great growth city of the late Read more

    In the Metropolitan Phoenix real estate market, our long, slow slide in home prices is finally encountering demand

    This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link):

     
    In the Metropolitan Phoenix real estate market, our long, slow slide in home prices is finally encountering demand

    If you’ve been looking for the bottom of the Phoenix real estate market, it might well be upon us.

    The world beyond our control — Washington and Wall Street — is so volatile right now that it’s hard for anyone to make plans.

    The Federal Reserve Bank is determined to keep markets liquid, so its own interest rates are heading back toward record lows. The investment banks that brokered the mortgage-backed securities that made sub-prime loans possible are in turmoil. Meanwhile, Congress is desperate to do something — which will almost certainly make things worse.

    The interesting thing about all that chaos is that it seems to be isolated to the real estate market. The larger economy is growing so fast that the twitterpated monetary policies of the Fed seem not to have had much of an impact.

    That’s a good thing, and let’s hope things stay that way.

    Meanwhile, in the world we have some control over — the local real estate market in Metropolitan Phoenix — our long, slow slide in prices is finally encountering demand.

    Because so many people wanted to buy houses in Phoenix, our builders gleefully over-built the Valley. This caused the glut of inventory we have been trying to absorb over the past nine quarters.

    Many of the resale homes that have languished on the market are by now short sales or have been taken back by the bank. Lenders don’t want to own houses, so they’re cutting prices until the homes get sold.

    At the same time, our reliable inflow of population, along with investors and second-home buyers, is there to absorb these newly-affordable homes. The snow belt just got belted with its worst winter in memory, which will bring even more newcomers to Phoenix.

    It could be we’ll be back to normal inventory levels fairly soon. The bad news? If your home is for sale, the price it will sell for right now is probably quite a bit lower than you think it Read more