There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Investment (page 7 of 20)

What happened? “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exploded, and many bystanders were injured in the blast, some fatally”

Things fall apart: Kevin Hassett at Bloomberg.com is getting death threats over this news analysis:

The financial crisis of the past year has provided a number of surprising twists and turns, and from Bear Stearns Cos. to American International Group Inc., ambiguity has been a big part of the story.

Why did Bear Stearns fail, and how does that relate to AIG? It all seems so complex.

But really, it isn’t. Enough cards on this table have been turned over that the story is now clear. The economic history books will describe this episode in simple and understandable terms: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exploded, and many bystanders were injured in the blast, some fatally.

Fannie and Freddie did this by becoming a key enabler of the mortgage crisis. They fueled Wall Street’s efforts to securitize subprime loans by becoming the primary customer of all AAA-rated subprime-mortgage pools. In addition, they held an enormous portfolio of mortgages themselves.

In the times that Fannie and Freddie couldn’t make the market, they became the market. Over the years, it added up to an enormous obligation. As of last June, Fannie alone owned or guaranteed more than $388 billion in high-risk mortgage investments. Their large presence created an environment within which even mortgage-backed securities assembled by others could find a ready home.

The problem was that the trillions of dollars in play were only low-risk investments if real estate prices continued to rise. Once they began to fall, the entire house of cards came down with them.

Take away Fannie and Freddie, or regulate them more wisely, and it’s hard to imagine how these highly liquid markets would ever have emerged. This whole mess would never have happened.

Read the whole thing.

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This endless election season may give the real estate market time to self-correct before new legislation can make things worse

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
This endless election season may give the real estate market time to self-correct before new legislation can make things worse

Looking for a silver lining amidst the black clouds of financial news? Here’s one: The fact that we’re in the middle of an election campaign gives us at least a fighting chance of solving our own problems without more government interference in the real estate market.

Everything that’s happened so far has been a triumph for the government approach to what should be free markets. Since the 1930s, the Federal government has been guaranteeing home loans. That made it easier for Americans to buy homes, but it dulled that flinty due diligence we expect in bankers.

Our tax laws favor homeownership with deductions, credits, capital gains exclusions and favorable loan terms. It’s nice to save on taxes, but these incentives induce us to own homes where we might otherwise do something else with our money.

In the recent past, the Federal government decided everyone should own a home, no matter what. After 9/11, the Federal Reserve Bank reduced the cost of money to almost nothing. Hundreds of different arms of government at all levels gave away financial incentives to homeownership. And the U.S. Treasury seemed to hint that American mortgage-backed securities were as safe as houses.

This has turned out to have unhappy consequences. That old-style flinty banker could never conceive of houses losing even 20% of their value, where the Phoenix market has given back twice that much since the market peaked.

Even so, the sky has not fallen. Wealth is not dollars, wealth is the productive power of the American economy. The majority of Americans still have significant equity in their homes, with many of them being owned outright.

What’s happened is that lenders and their financiers and, unfortunately, the American taxpayer, have taken a hit to the wallet. If the Federal government can restrain itself from overreacting, we’ll dig ourselves out in due course. And that’s why we’re blessed by this election: It will be at a least a year before the Feds Read more

Alex, I’ll Take “Hypocrisy” for $800

Numerous stories in the press the past two days regarding the government bailout of AIG as well as the various financial sector failures.  There were many talking heads and an even greater number of vacuous comments.  But one quote stood out among all others.  In relation to the AIG bailout, Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee said:

This is one more affirmation that the lack of regulation has caused serious problems. That the private market screwed itself up and they need the government to come help them unscrew it.

Thank God for the Nanny State.  Big-daddy government is going to ride in and “unscrew” all the problems arising from our lack of responsibility.  This would be the same government, I might add, that bankrupted Social Security with criminal accounting practices, finds 44,000 pages of tax code reasonable, considers limiting their spending to their income irresponsible fiscal management, thinks nothing of paying $600 for toilet seats and bases most of its really, really important personnel decisions – not on talent or ability – but rather a thorough investigation into a person’s opinions on abortion!

Hypocrisy, thy name is government.

Pressing news from the world at large: We will survive

One:

If we go back to 20 percent down payments, the market will be more stable. I’m sure that in a free market we would see 20 percent down payments. Barney Frank is the only person I can think of who still wants to lend with little or no money down. He’s welcome to do it, but I dare him to use his own money instead of ours. –Arnold Kling, EconLog, via Cafe Hayek

Two, Donald Luskin at Poor and Stupid:

I’m quoted extensively in Debra Saunders’ column in today’s San Francisco Examiner.

On the campaign trail Wednesday, Obama bemoaned “the most serious financial crisis in generations.” He said the exact same words the day before…

“The most serious financial crisis in generations?”

Donald Luskin, a chief investment officer with the Menlo Park investment research firm TrendMacrolytics and an economic adviser to McCain – who tells me he has never talked to McCain – remarked that if Obama “had a little bit more experience,” he would “put these things in more context.” Luskin has lived through five or six recessions, and “this ain’t one.”

It isn’t a recession because the U.S. economy has grown in both of the last two quarters. Read: It is not receding. And while Luskin sees the unemployment rate as “a little high,” it is “not as high as it typically is in a recession.” Yes, Luskin is concerned about inflation, now at 5.4 percent. The drop in oil prices may help…

Luskin questioned what has happened to politics, when a candidate “must pretend this is a recession or you’re seen as hard-hearted.” And: “What does it say when we can’t be nuanced? And we can’t say, ‘Look, we’re in a little bit of a slowdown, but the fundamentals are strong’?”

The answer, of course, is that Democrats can’t win without trashing the economy. As Luskin pointed out in a piece in Sunday’s Washington Post, in Obama’s famed anti-Iraq war speech back in 2002, the then-Illinois state senator suggested the war was waged “to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst month since the Great Read more

Alex, I’ll Take “Irony” for $600

The government is now in the mortgage business and the insurance business.  I am sure others will expound on the AIG debacle and all of its implications in due course.  I just wanted to point out the something that should make me laugh so hard it brings a tear to me eye… instead it just brings the tear.

Just before each financial giant goes down, there is a final blow.  One last lynchpin pulled that leads to the immediate cessation of breath for a company: the ratings agencies lower the company’s credit rating.  Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, etc. take a look at the mortgage based assets the company is carrying, look at the write downs still to come and make an assessment on the credit worthiness of that company.  Once their rating drops they cannot borrow money at a cost that allows them to remain solvent and “a-begging they will go.”

Now that is the job of the ratings agencies and I do not begrudge them their responsibility.  Here’s the funny part though.  The failing, mortgage-based assets that are crushing these financial companies (and now an insurance company) were originally purchased, to a large degree, based on the credit worthiness assigned them by… wait for it… wait for it… these self-same ratings agencies!  Imagine the hubris of being so, so wrong in their primary mission of evaluating the creditworthiness of an investment vehicle, then lowering their evaluation of the creditworthiness of those companies that purchased the very investment vehicles they failed to correctly evaluate!  Talk about having your bread buttered on both sides. I know there is a great joke in there somewhere.  I am just too terrified to find it.

Welcome to the other side of the looking glass.

No sharks allowed! The predictable consequences of government regulation of the financial markets

I wrote this for No Treason in July of 2002:

This morning’s New York Times has a curious piece on Alan Greenspan’s recent denunciation of greed.

The article consists of a series of quotations from Ayn Rand and from Greenspan in the days when he was incontestably in the Randian camp. On Usenet I wrote:

Well, I had wondered when someone here was going to remark upon Greenspan’s denunciation of greed, but I thought the article itself was very good. I expect the Times thought that merely quoting those texts was damning enough, but I thought they were nice selections. It would have been nice to point out that these events are the consequence not of capitalism but of our fascist mixed-economy, of Orren Boyle, not Hank Rearden, but I think the Times may have done its own cause more harm than good.

But wait. There’s more. The Times quotes Rand as saying “I make mincemeat out of the kind of businessman … that runs to government for assistance, subsidies, legislation and regulation.” Precisely what kind of corporate executive — not businessman — do they think has committed these awful crimes?

Does the New York Times think that the securities market, the sine qua non of these scandals, is free?

A year or two ago, conservatives were rejoicing that half or more of Americans were now ‘capitalists’, owners of the means of production, either directly or through retirement plans or mutual funds. Now that the New York Times is lamenting the sad fates of these — call them by their right names: Indiscriminate, uninformed, degenerate gamblers — is anyone happy to have the nation’s capital in the hands of such cry-babies?

Does the New York Times honestly believe that ordinary people should own securities? Does the New York Times believe that anyone who would gamble his retirement savings on the most volatile of stock issues should be pitied for suffering the predictable consequences of what Greenspan calls “infectious greed”?

Back when he was young and admirable, Alan Greenspan wrote that going off the gold-standard “put a penny in the fuse-box” of the American economy. Actually, the old and tired Read more

Notes on Inbound Link Text

I broke my blog a few weeks ago and it proved something pretty interesting about Google.  The lesson behind that experience can help you bring in higher quality visitors from search engines.

Fixing my mistake was simple since I’d just put a semicolon where it didn’t belong, and while the error was ugly, my site was back to normal in about a minute.

But sometimes coincidences happen, and while my site was belly up talking about some PHP parse error, Google’s friendly spiderbot came crawling by to pick up its latest snapshot of my site.  Oops!

So, normally, a search for “silicon valley real estate” shows my entry like this:

And, for the next day or so, it would look like this:

After reading the ugly description text, I put my eyes back in their sockets and thought about the title text.  I never use the phrase “steve leung silicon valley” on my site and my title tag at the moment was something like “Unexpected Error”.  But I knew, like the Erics have mentioned on BHB before, that Google gives a lot of weight to what people link to you say.

It takes those links so seriously, that it will literally use their text in its own search results if your site loses the plot for some reason.  Which shows how important other people’s links to you are.

How do I know people used that phrase to link to my site?  In this case, Google Webmaster Tools.  You won’t use it everyday, but it’s indispensable for a few reasons.  The most important is that it gives you insight into the great undocumented void of how Google sees your site, and if you have any technical issues that will prevent you from getting indexed correctly in their search engine.

In fact, Google Webmaster Tools has evolved to a point where it will flag issues that aren’t purely technical, like repeated titles.  This happens a lot with WordPress blogs which use the same title any time there’s pagination.

It also gives you the ability to communicate with Google if you really need to.  I once bought a domain name from someone who’d Read more

August was a great month for real estate sales, but when 40% of buyers are pushed off the playing field, home prices could plummet

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
August was a great month for real estate sales, but when 40% of buyers are pushed off the playing field, home prices could plummet

We won’t have reliable numbers for a few days,* but preliminary results leave no doubt that August was a huge month for real estate sales in the Valley of the Sun. Not for prices, alas, which continued to slide by around 1.5% last month. But, of the bread-and-butter suburban tract homes we track, around 200 will have sold, a two-year high.

September promises to be a banner month also, with nearly 280 homes currently under contract. Not all of those homes will make it through the escrow process, but most of them will.

What accounts for all this activity? The single greatest factor is seller-paid down-payment assistance programs like AmeriDream and Nehemiah. An FHA loan requires a 3% down-payment, and these grant programs permit the seller to fund the grant, along with up to 3% more for closing costs. The upshot is that buyers can take possession of the home for “nothing down.”

In recent months, down-payment assistance programs have accounted for as much as 40% of sales of resale homes, and as much as 90% of new-build sales.

Here’s the catch: Under the mortgage relief act recently signed into law, seller-paid down-payment assistance will be forbidden. The restriction takes effect on October 1st, but most lenders have already closed the window on new AmeriDream and Nehemiah loans.

It’s possible these programs will be reinstated by future legislation, but, even if they are not, it’s not the end of the world. It’s no great challenge to find a decent starter home for $100,000. And if buyers cannot manage to save up $3,000 for a down-payment ($3,500 after October 1st), acquiring a huge new debt may not be the best solution to their financial problems.

But the short-run prognosis seems pretty obvious: When 40% of resale buyers are forced onto the sidelines, the downward pressure on prices should accelerate.

The bottom line: If you’re prepared to buy a house in the Phoenix area, either Read more

Buy low? Sell high? You can’t sell high for now, but prices are low enough that a buy-and-hold strategy could pay off handsomely

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Buy low? Sell high? You can’t sell high for now, but prices are low enough that a buy-and-hold strategy could pay off handsomely

Last week I met with a potential real estate investor. She’s an investor because she’s got the money, the credit and the will to dip her toe in the water. She’s a potential investor because she hasn’t yet been a landlord.

With new investors, I talk about premium suburban single-family rental homes. This is normally the safest, most economical way to start a real estate investment plan in Phoenix. That’s especially true right now, when the right rental home will be cash-flow positive from the outset.

But I also talk about other income opportunities in real estate, if only because land-lording is not for everyone. I would not advise a first-time investor to take the plunge in a large multi-family community or a strip mall, but there are plenty of other ways to take advantage of our current market conditions.

An example? Flipping. There never was heard a more discouraging word, but flipping has a horrible reputation because a horde of TV-educated tycoons bought at the top of the market and sold their refurbished masterpieces at auction. Now, when entry prices are low and trending lower, a slow flipping strategy promises nice rewards.

Here’s one slow strategy: Find a great flip candidate at a rock-bottom price. Buy it to own as a rental. Hold it in that state — with the monthly cash-flow covering your costs — until prices recover to your satisfaction. Then do the refurb and sell.

Here’s another one: Buy your cheap refurb candidate and move into it. Redo the home slowly, room by room, especially when the materials for doing a particular room are very cheap. Sell it after you’ve owned it for five years or more and take the capital gain tax free.

There is a common investment idea behind these strategies: Buy low. Sell high. You can’t predict when you’ll be able to sell high, but you know for sure you can buy low right now. If Read more

Give me your money, Part II: Emergent investment opportunities in the recovering real estate market

Last Tuesday I met with a potential real estate investor. She’s an investor because she’s got the money, the credit and the will to dip her toe in the water. She’s a potential investor because she has never yet been a landlord. That’s okay. I’ve worked with many potential investors, some of whom have gone on to own multiple properties, most of those — not all, alas — very successfully.

Mostly when I do these kinds of interviews, I talk about premium suburban single-family rental homes. This is normally the safest and most economical way to start a real estate investment plan in Phoenix. This is especially true right now, when the right rental home will be cash-flow positive from day one. Our rents are low but stable, and our home prices can be very low right now.

But I also talk about other income opportunities in real estate, if only because land-lording is not for everyone. I would not advise a first-time investor to take the plunge in a large multi-family community or a strip mall, but there are plenty of other ways to take advantage of our current market conditions.

An example? Flipping. Never was heard a more discouraging word right now, but flipping has a horrible reputation because ten bazillion TV-tycoons bought at the top of the market and sold their refurbished masterpieces at auction. Now, when entry prices are low and trending lower, a slow flipping strategy promises nice rewards.

Here’s one slow strategy: Find a great flip candidate at a rock-bottom price. Buy it to own as a rental, doing what you have to on the way in to make it marketable as a rental. Hold it in that state — with the monthly cash-flow covering your costs — until prices recover to your satisfaction. When the tenant’s lease expires, do the refurb and sell.

Here’s another one, a strategy that worked very well from 1997 to 2006: Buy your cheap refurb candidate and move into it. Redo the home slowly, room by room, especially when the materials for doing a particular room are very cheap. Sell it after you’ve owned Read more

What went wrong in the real estate market? We told homeowners to treat their homes like securities investments — and they did…

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

As a matter of eating crow, I will attest that I publicly denied that housing prices could ever behave like securities prices, falling far below their fundamental value. The market has proved me wrong. We’re writing contracts on REO properties where the purchase price is well below the replacement cost. I read a listing for a potential rental property in a not-awful neighborhood that is selling for $49,500. We anticipate prices like that in premium rental neighborhoods when the Ameridream/Nehemiah calliope grinds to a halt. A house in Detroit was listed last week for one dollar. This bust behavior is just as irrational as the boon behavior — and it is a choice opportunity for people who are not irrational. Nevertheless, I was wrong. The real estate industry told buyers that homes were an investment just like securities — and damned if they didn’t believe us.

 
What went wrong in the real estate market? We told homeowners to treat their homes like securities investments — and they did…

If you were to turn back the clock on the Phoenix real estate market by four years — that would be just about right.

Judging by prices for bread-and-butter homes, it’s just as if the last four years didn’t happen. The average stucco and tile suburban dream home sold in July of 2008 for almost the same price you would have paid for it in July of 2004.

A lot has happened since then, of course. The 1,400 square foot single family home you could have had back then for $150,000 soared to $250,000 by December of 2005. That seemed like $100,000 in free money, and, regrettably, many people borrowed against that paper equity in their homes. Even if they did not, it has proved difficult to eradicate that entirely imaginary $100,000 from list prices.

The real estate market got hammered good and hard by two very bad ideas. The first is that homeownership is an unlimited good, that everyone should own a home regardless of their circumstances. Governments — and the National Association of Realtors Read more

There’s more to the mortgage relief bill than just mortgage relief

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

Notes for insiders: The legislative thumbprint of the National Association of Realtors is churn. The NAR is not necessarily for or against any legislation. Instead, their lobbyists will look for ways to introduce short-term incentives to churn real estate — artificial inducements to buy or sell real estate now rather than on the consumer’s own timetable. In this bill, getting rid of seller down-payment assistance, introducing the new-buyer tax-credit and revising the capital gains exclusion rules all promote short-term churn. What about the long-term? The NAR knows it will be able to lobby for new real estate-churning legislation next year — at every level of government. This is just another example of the fundamentally anti-consumer character of the NAR.

Here’s another thought: Wouldn’t it be great if, instead of regurgitating Zillow’s gee whiz press releases, the real estate reporters of the mainstream media actually reported on what is really going on in real estate?

 
There’s more to the mortgage relief bill than just mortgage relief

Having trouble making your mortgage payments? You might be able to make a change in your loan, thanks to the mortgage relief bill President Bush recently signed into law. Under the bill, you can convert your high-interest adjustable-rate loan to a lower-interest fixed-rate note if you meet what might, in a declining market, seem to be Catch-22-like guidelines: Your payment must be more than 31% of your income, and your new loan cannot exceed 90% of your home’s value. Help is available — provided you don’t need it.

Starting October 1st, seller-paid down-payment assistance grants will be outlawed for FHA loans. This is bad news for lower-priced neighborhoods in Metropolitan Phoenix, where as many as nine out of ten homes are being sold with down-payment assistance. Expect to see a flurry of this activity in the next two months.

But the left hand gives where the right hand takes away: Buyers who have not owned a home for three years can take a $7,500 “refundable” tax-credit if they buy between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009. The credit Read more

Moral Hazard….

Barry Ritholz at The Big Picture had these two comics that brought to the forefront again the issue of moral hazard. Check out the comics and then we’ll talk “on the other side.”

This is going to get expensive.....

Carry the World on our Shoulders

Okay, now some thoughts about moral hazard:

The definition of moral hazard (as taken from that scholarly journal, Wikipedia):

Moral hazard is the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently from the way it would behave if it were fully exposed to the risk. Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear the full consequences of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to bear some responsibility for the consequences of those actions.

Let’s break that down and look at it a little more closely in light of the current market environment:

a party insulated from risk may behave differently…. What that means is that, frankly, the people on Wall Street and the bankers on Main St. (including yours truly) might very well have done things differently over the last few years if we had been more fully exposed to the risk. Will Fannie or Freddie buy it? That’s all that most mortgage lenders really cared about when structuring a loan. On Wall Street, the guys (I’m using that term in a gender neutral sense, okay?) who packaged these loans up and sold them as securities didn’t really care how they performed, all they cared about was the great big fat commissions that they made. The rating agencies didn’t care about whether they really told the truth about these mortgage backed securities, all they cared about was getting the big fat commission checks.

And so what do we have now? We have, between Wachovia and Washington Mutual, $10.1 billion in loan loss provisions in the last 12 hours. That’s for a period of 90 days folks. I was going to figure out the cost per day but my calculator doesn’t crunch numbers that big!

Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear Read more

Musical chairs: You can buy a home on leased land for a bargain price, but you must be prepared to sell before the music stops

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Musical chairs: You can buy a home on leased land for a bargain price, but you must be prepared to sell before the music stops

We’re preparing to list a condominium that sits on leased land. Land leases aren’t common in the Phoenix area, but they do exist.

The most common way to own real property in the Valley is in fee simple: You own the land and all the structures on it, plus any mineral, water and air rights that haven’t been alienated by legislation or previous sale.

A very distant second way of owning property is the condominium plat: You own the airspace described by your interior walls, and you and all of your neighbors own the land and structures in common. Most often you will also own the air conditioner, and possibly also the roof. These are expensive to replace, so crafty developers and their HOAs socialize the risk to you.

We have a few co-ops in the Phoenix area, but very few. In a cooperative, you and all of your neighbors own the land and the structures in common, and you have a right to occupy your living space.

In a land lease, the structures can be owned in any one of these three ways — by individuals, by a condominium HOA or by a cooperative corporation. The important difference is that the land is owned by a landlord, and the landlord will be taking that land back someday.

What happens to the structures? They revert to the landlord’s ownership, and the former owners of those structures are left owning nothing.

In essence, it’s a game of musical chairs. The structures on the leasehold pass from owner to owner, but, when the music stops, no one then on that land has a place to sit. This tends to depress property values on leased land.

But land leases are written for very long terms, and a lot can happen in that time. If the landlord gets a huge offer for the land, the people who own the structures could get bought out early at Read more

Investors are coming back to the Phoenix rental home market — and with the right business plan they’ll make money

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).

 
Investors are coming back to the Phoenix rental home market — and with the right business plan they’ll make money

Rental home investors are coming back into the Phoenix real estate market, and this is a good thing.

The last time we had a substantial run on rental housing, results were not so sweet. Investors came to Phoenix with the idea that price appreciation would make up for any monthly losses they might take on their rental homes. It’s plausible they were right — in the long run. In the short run, negative cash flow and declining values, coupled with adjustable-rate or negative-amortization loans, drove many of these homes into foreclosure.

And this accounts for much of the inventory the new wave of investors is drawing upon. The difference is, the prices for these homes have declined enough that they can be — at least potentially — cash-flow positive.

Why only potentially cash-flow positive?

Because too many investors adopt the worst of the cartoonish characterizations of capitalism when they resolve to become landlords. They pick the cheapest properties in the worst locations and rent to the least-qualified tenants, living through one eviction and repair nightmare after another.

Here’s a strategy for making more money from a rental home — much more peacefully.

There are dozens of costs associated with rental housing, and your business plan should take account of all of them. But your biggest potential losses are always going to be vacancy, tenant acquisition, repairs and resale value.

It makes much more sense to me to buy a property that can command premium rents and will sell at a premium price when you’re ready to move on. Location matters, as do the livability and lifestyle factors of the specific home. You want to pick a home that will stay rented.

I think it’s a good idea to charge something less than the market rent. This will give you a broader array of tenants to choose from, which will enable you to select tenants with good credit who will treat your property like their own.

With the right house Read more