There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Investment (page 19 of 20)

2006 is the Year of Zillow: The 900 pound AVM has been upgraded to be a free listing platform and the presumptive national MLS system . . .

The News

An upgrade made tonight to Zillow.com‘s on-line home evaluation system will add the following new functionality:

  • Owners or listing agents for any of the 67 million homes in Zillow’s database will be able to list those homes for sale at no cost.
  • Owners of any Zestimable homes will be able to post a “Make Me Move” price on their homes, the price at which all objections to selling will have been overcome.
  • Zillow is creating a real estate wiki to serve as a sort of Wikipedia.org-like encyclopedia of real estate.

From the company’s press release:

Leading real estate Web site Zillow.com today announced a major upgrade, allowing homeowners and real estate agents to post homes for sale for free. Additionally, in redefining what it means for a house to be “For Sale,” Zillow? is enabling any homeowner to post a Make Me Move? price.

“To date Zillow has created a Web page for almost every home in the country – close to 70 million – on which we’ve placed public records data and our Zestimate? home valuations,” said Rich Barton, Zillow’s co-founder and CEO. “With today’s new release we are opening up every home’s Web page on Zillow.com for owners and their real estate agents to plant virtual ‘For Sale’ signs in their Zillow front yards for free.”

In addition, any homeowner can now post a Make Me Move price. “What number would it take for you to call the movers and hand over your keys?” asked Lloyd Frink, Zillow’s co-founder and president. “Make Me Move is our twist on the traditional ‘For Sale’ sign.” A homeowner can easily post a Make Me Move price without exposing any personal information. Zillow then enables interested buyers to contact the owner through an email “anonymizer.” There is no charge for the service.

All postings, be they “For Sale” or Make Me Move, provide free uploading of pictures, home descriptions including “what I love about my home,” and neighborhood commentary. Additionally, real estate agents who post homes they are representing for sale can publish their own contact information, link to listings on their own Web sites, and upload a photo Read more

Win-Win: A Recent Case Study

Win-Win is a concept that’s been popular for a few decades, especially in the real estate industry. Most of the time though it’s been talk and not much walk. Since it supposedly refers to the buyer and seller in the same transaction, many would argue it’s a cruel hoax, and in fact an oxymoronic phrase. How can the buyer and seller both win?

It can only happen when the buyer and seller agree that their goals can only be realized with each other’s help. Become a team. It must be understood that taking an adversarial position will end any chance of both sides winning. This usually happens when one or usually both sides realize the market hasn’t and probably won’t provide the same solution they can by working together. Team players on the other hand can share in total victory.
We Win!

This approach is almost impossible in the sales of homes in which the buyer intends to occupy their purchase. In that situation both sides by definition want obviously different outcomes. (The Real Estate Zebra begs to differ, saying most home buyers and sellers can team up for a mutual win.) Though they eventually can come to agreement, it’s nature is almost always adversarial. Captain Obvious lives. However, in the investment world, it sometimes happens that a buyer and seller can do something for each other that the market has failed miserably to provide.

Here is such a story.

Ellen and Rosa are my clients, referrals from family. Ellen had already executed the first leg of her Plan successfully. Rosa and I had just finished creating her Plan and were ready for the first leg, which was the sale of her condo. She’d acquired it several years ago and had well over $100k in net equity. She needed as much cash as possible in order to get her Plan going. She is 50ish and knows her retirement will not be more than marginally adequate if she doesn’t change her approach now.

Ellen desparately wanted a local condo in which she could opt to live at some future time. She was now living in a duplex that allowed Read more

One more hound on the trail . . .

We’re adding one more contributor to our roster today:

Ronan Doyle lives in Boston and works as an advertising agency creative executive. He loves distinctive homes and is building his wealth house by house: Search, buy, improve, enjoy, sell — then repeat the process.

Ronan know more about houses — about what makes a house work — than anyone I’ve ever met. Between Restoration Hardware and the two-year capital gains income tax exclusion, he is a one-man urban renewal project.

Jim Duncan at Real Central VA wonders if I might be wrong about the audience for real estate weblogs. In fact I could be. There may be more real estate consumers out there than I suppose, and they may be more persistent in their reading than I surmise.

For my own part, I don’t see them — very much the contrary. As I argued a week-and-a-half ago:

If you’re writing a real estate weblog, you’re blogging for people who are fanatical about real estate. Who would that be? Realtors, lenders and the vendors who live off their business. Bubbleheads and people on the bubble about bubbleheadedness. Real estate investors. That’s it. There might be some peeking-in/checking-up traffic from past clients, and perhaps some dedicated fans. There will be drop-ins from people shopping for Realtors, but they will not become dedicated readers. How do I know this? Because they don’t care. You can tell who cares about your weblog by looking at your Technorati links. There are 55 million weblogs out there, but the only ones linking to you are produced by other real estate fanatics. That’s not a wave. That’s the water…

Even so, the simple fact is that we are focused the way we are because this is what is interesting to us. I don’t tell other people what to do, and I may be completely wrong about locally-focused, consumer-oriented real estate weblogs. We actually have a nascent weblog devoted to those kinds of ideas, but we don’t give it any time.

In any case, it may turn out that Ronan Doyle is our brave initiative to straddle the line. Ronan is truly a real estate fanatic, Read more

New tricks: Just how much noise can a pack of big dogs can make . . . ?

With this post, this little puppy is making sounds like a grown-up hound dog…

BloodhoundBlog began five months ago as a Phoenix-area brokerage-oriented real estate weblog. We became a sort of hybrid group-blog when we added mega-producing Phoenix-area Realtor Russell Shaw. We stuck another paw in the water when we invited San Diego-based investment broker Jeff Brown to come play with us in the Dual Agency Smack-Down. And that went so well that we decided to grow BloodhoundBlog into a true group-blog.

We’ve always been national in the scope of our interests, but now we are truly national (or at least bi-coastal) in our reach. Moreover, the webloggers we are adding will continue the BloodhoundBlog tradition of rigorous real estate analysis — thoughtful without being dour, informative without being pedantic, disagreeing, where we must, without being disagreeable.

These are our contributors:

Jeff Brown is a San Diego-based real estate investments broker. He makes millionaires of his ordinary-investor clients. If that’s not enough to make you smile, his sage, folksy wit should do the job.

Cathleen Collins is a Phoenix-area Realtor. With a background in hi-tech project-management and a deft hand in customer service, she is building a respectable listing practice in the Historic Districts of Downtown Phoenix.

Tony Fredericks is a San Francisco-area roofing contractor who is using his surplus income to build a real estate investment empire. Tony is a wine aficionado who brings a fine discrimination to everything he does.

Richard Riccelli is a Boston-based direct marketing guru. His advertising agency specializes in magazine circulation, but here Richard will deploy his vast expertise and rapier wit to real estate marketing issues.

Russell Shaw is a mega-producing Realtor working in Metropolitan Phoenix. He and his team close approximately 400 transactions a year, consistently putting Russell among the top 30 Realtors nationwide.

Greg Swann is a Phoenix-area Realtor and real estate broker. The most prolific of our contributors, Greg is not completely happy with anything until he has picked it apart and put it back together in his own way.

Room for one more? We are interested, now and always, in considering new contributors. If you can write with style, grace Read more

Growth news: A big shoe drops in Goodyear . . .

Growth news abounds in today’s Arizona Republic. A new shopping center along the northern frontier of Phoenix. Accelerated improvements along the route of the SR-303 freeway in Surprise. And, in Goodyear, plans for a massive expansion of the city, along with a big told-ya-so for Greg.

The map at the right illustrates Goodyear’s plan. (If you click it it will open as a PDF.)

The yellow region is the current City of Goodyear.

The purple border is the Goodyear Planning Area — the regions Goodyear currently has plans to annex.

The region within the solid black border is the proposed planning area discussed in the newspaper article, 95 square miles of new Goodyear.

The region within the dashed black border is future expansion, the Goodyear of good years yet to come.

The red dashed line is a proposed route for the SR-303 freeway running south from the I-10 to the I-8. I have known for years that this would happen, but this is the first time this shoe has dropped in an official document.

You might look at that meandering freeway route and think, “Are they drunk? Did sage Euclid live and die in vain?” But remember that the purpose of that freeway is not to move traffic but to enrich the current and future owners of the land.

The ideal freeway route is through the Federally-owned desert preserve to the west. But the freeway isn’t being built to solve a traffic problem but to create one. No one lives there now. There is no need for a freeway. But all of that privately-owned land will become developable because of the proposed freeway route — and that is what the freeway is intended to do.

That’s as may be. It’s corrupt and demented, but it’s the way things are done here — and pretty much everywhere, in one sleazy way or another. What’s interesting to me is that the West Valley map I made last week is already dated. And: It would seem that the Phoenix real estate market is quite a bit healthier than some people are willing to allow

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A pre-Thanksgiving thought-feast: Blogtalk, techtalk, Zillowtalk — and the mysterious allure of ephemeral catastrophe . . .

Jeff Brown has come out from Behind the Curtain. His new weblog (blogrolled, of course) is BawldGuy Talking.

The Hamptons Real Estate Blog (blogrolled) has also moved to a new WordPress platform. One less Blogger weblog out there. The speed at which people can abandon software platforms should give every Google investor pause.

On that subject, The Phoenix Real Estate Guy has news about a new Point 2 Agent weblogging platform.

The Landlord Blog has started a Carnival of Real Estate Investing. I like the specialization. There are some very smart people in that corner of the RE.net.

Kevin Boer at Three Oceans Realty has maps! I am ambivalent about whether map searching actually does anything to sell houses, but it’s slicker than whale snot anyway. Kevin also has a real estate office in two boxes.

RSS Pieces has a great article on choosing the right domain name.

Rent or buy? Ask Todd Tarson at MOCO Real Estate News. I’m on the bubble on this question, and, not to bust any bubblehead bubbles, but I’m selling more houses than I expected to at this time of year.

Greg Tracy at BlueRoof.com Blog argues that Zillow is relevant, accuracy be damned. I agree from a different direction. Zillow is the elephant in the room right now. Its relevance is a given. As the BalwdGuy says, Zillow might be Pong, ultimately just a blip on technology’s radar. Okayfine. But: Pong was big news for its time.

Send a prayer out, if you can, for Jonathan Dalton’s father. Pneumonia, the worst of house guests — shows up unexpectedly and takes forever to clear out. Take good care of your own selves, too, as the weather cools. Pneumonia is what you get when you tell yourself you can ignore a chest cold.

Hey! Where is Kris Berg? I hope some San Diego newspaper is paying her big bucks for her sprightly sense of humor. If not that, I hope her absence is explained by a big stack of new contracts.

Finally, it might be nice if everyone would chip in to buy Keith at Housing Panic some lubricant. The poor sod has been Masturbating to Read more

Dual Agency Smack-Down: Fear Of Perception Breeds False Logic

First of all Greg, my wife’s cat now officially hates you. Today it was hazelnut. Reintroducing yourself to Russell was perfection. πŸ™‚

But on to persuading the unpersuadable. Galileo faced down the most powerful institution outside of government that insisted the earth was the center of the universe. The church was terrified of the perception that what Galileo said seemed to contradict the Bible, which of course it did not. The church just recently apologized for its actions – and only centuries after schools first began teaching fourth graders that Galileo was 100% correct.

Principle – Perception may be ‘reality’ to a thirsty man in the desert, but the water still isn’t there.
Principle – False logic will always eventually be proven as such. Thirsty man discovers this by way of a mouth full of sand.
Principle – When the universe in which you operate disagrees with you – it’s possible you might be mistaken.

Gravity, when applied, works every time. However, much like dual agency, the consequences of applied gravity are not always desired. If I jump from a two foot ledge I’ll probably survive. If I fall or am pushed from the balcony of a 10th floor office window I probably won’t. Gravity is ruthlessly consistent. The consequences of its use are universally predictable. The apple, no matter how many times it falls from the tree, will never fall up.

The ‘angelic’ school of dual agency has its foundation in a false premise. The man who either accidently fell, or was pushed from that window either accidentally caused his own death, or was murdered. Gravity, like dual agency, has no will of its own. There are infinite examples available illustrating this. I’ll use just one.

You may use a gun for target practice. Or to acquire food through hunting. Or to avoid your wife getting half of your net worth. The gun didn’t do any of those things. The person shooting the gun did them. That’s a principle, and the gun doesn’t have an opinion. Even when my wife kills me accidentally while cleaning her gun, am I not just as dead as the murder victim?

Greg Read more

Dual Agency Smack-Down: If being a big brokerage is an inherent agency violation, it’s not the client’s fault . . .

Please. Recognize that everything I say or write is true and do not argue with me. Thanks!

Hi! Welcome to BloodhoundBlog. My name is Greg Swann. I question everything. πŸ˜‰

From my point of view, we’re still not getting any traction.

But single agency is not a viable business model.  Period.  A viable business model is one that would allow for unfettered growth (as long as it was filling a need to the consumer) and single agency is not possible if a company grows.

Without intending to quibble, agency is not about the vendor, his business model or its potential for growth. Agency is about the interests of the client, which are paramount to all others. If a particular business model violates agency, then, as Russell argues very cogently with respect to Redfin.com, it is criminal in se in states where agency is a fiduciary obligation.

There are about 925 agents with John Hall & Associates.  It would be quite stupid to preclude them from showing a listing so the seller (and buyer) gets the “benefit” of single agency.

This is not an argument against dual agency. It is an argument for getting rid of the broker/salesperson licensing laws. If we did that, then every listing agent would be alike unto a self-employed broker now. Dual Agency would still be possible, but it would be much easier to manage, since it could only occur when the agent represented buyers to his own listings. Major brokerages like John Hall could easily transition to affiliations or companies, instead — same cost structure, but no liability. We would still have to police for other forms of collusion or shady dealing, but Dual Agency would be all but eliminated.

In any case, arguing that refraining from Dual Agency would be impractical is not a persuasively-valid reason to uphold or reject it. As before: Sub-Agency was much more practical than Buyer Brokerage, but we got rid of it anyway.

The idea that the agent somehow controls what a buyer will pay and what a seller will accept only indicates a disconnect from reality.

I think this is a very weak argument. I want to deal Read more

Dual Agency Smack-Down: Dueling angels are not persuasive . . .

I’m not really a Jesuit, I just play one in the blogsward. My mother had had enough of the Church before she went to high school, and, in consequence, I was sent to public schools. Those were actually quite a bit better then than they are now, but, even so, I bear my ignorance as a curse. I am too much aware that I am too much unaware, and every effort I make to correct this deficit serves only to deepen it. This is why I spend so much of my time crouched by Brother Quintilian, learning evermore to learn, to make up for my failure to have learned in the first place.

Say what?

In short: I am unswayed.

I have not heard what I consider to be a persuasively-valid argument in support of Dual Agency. Counting Our Lady Ardell in a comment, we have three testaments to personal integrity, and these I do not dispute.

But: So what?

The question is not: Can very trustworthy people effect Dual Agency in a way that occasions no overt objections from their clients? Surely this is possible.

The question is, rather: What policy should obtain in the absence of a presumptive angelitude?

The question is: Taking account that a certain percentage of licensees will be stupid, untrained, avaricious, uninformed or openly larcenous, what policy best protects the interests of the consumer — the alleged justification for our licenses?

Russell Shaw raises a lot of side issues that really don’t have anything to do with the debate. He gets quite a few of these sideways, in my opinion, but we can save those debates for other days. The meat of his argument is here:

My seller WANTS ME TO SELL THEIR HOME TO A BUYER I ALREADY HAVE – this is THE very thing they are hiring us to do.

That is: Dual Agency is valid because sellers want it. We turn to Quintilian, who advises us that, by this reasoning, Sub-Agency is also valid. Sellers want it, and many of them don’t truly understand that they no longer have it in Arizona.

Why don’t they have it? Because as much as sellers might Read more

Dual Agency Smack-Down: Bullied By Perception

Thanks to Greg Swann for his gracious invitation. Posting on the 900 pound gorilla known as Bloodhound is a feather in anyone’s cap. I’m not sure there’s more than five sites in the country creating more ripples than he does. You set the bar pretty high Greg.

Before I begin – God bless Russell Shaw. Until he came along I almost always felt like the Lone Ranger on most subjects the real estate blog-world considered earth shatteringly important. I’ve enjoyed his posts on various subjects, and have found myself wondering if my dad had another son he never told me about. Anyone who has ever read my comments on blogs discussing the latest ‘hot topics’ will easily discern how much he and I agree with each other.

Buyer representation? National MLS? Dual agency? NAR for heaven’s sake? Give me a break. Until I became a blogger I was both ignorant and apathetic about what opinions were held by others in the industry on those subjects. The only thing that has changed is the entertainment I sometimes enjoy while reading about them.

I read Russell’s dual agency post and laughed so hard I spewed my morning coffee all over my wife’s cat. He absolutely nailed it to the wall. Remember the Clint Eastwood movie, Suddent Impact? That was Russell’s way of saying, “Go ahead, make my day.” But, I was invited to post my take on dual agency, and I’ll do that now.

In the 1960’s I worked for a real estate firm that had six offices and give or take 40 agents. About 75% of the agents were full time. In the two years I was the janitor, and printer (mimeograph) of new listings, they closed over 1,000 transactions – 100% of which were dual agency sales. (Quick, get Greg a chair, he’s looking a little pale.) That same firm also escrowed the sales. And if an agent was caught showing another broker’s listings, he was fired on the spot. The company’s broker/owner didn’t cooperate with outside brokers – as policy. How could that work you ask? His company always had more listings under $20,000 Read more

Home buyer always liable for mortgage . . .

This is my column from today’s Arizona Republic (permanent link). No fireworks, today, just real estate.

Home buyer always liable for mortgage

I got a great question by e-mail. It’s really a lender question, but it introduces a number of interesting topics.

“Are homeowners personally liable for their mortgages? If yes, is it possible to structure a home loan that doesn’t require a personal guarantee?”

Generally speaking, yes, a mortgage is secured both by the real property and by the borrower’s personal promise to repay the note.

If the down payment is 10 to 20 percent, the personal promise may not be as significant. But if the down payment is very low or if real estate is declining in value, the lender will depend on the borrower to bring any shortfall to the closing table, should the home sell for less money than is owed on it.

Many types of loans are not secured by the borrower’s personal promise to repay. The loan will be secured by the real property or by other assets. A foreclosure won’t affect the borrower’s personal credit.

Here is an example that can be used for mortgages for residential rental homes: the non-recourse loan. The loan is secured by the real property only, with no “recourse” to the borrower on default.

Obviously, the lender is going to make sure the amount lent is substantially less than the value of the property, that the property produces income sufficient to pay its own expenses, etc.

This is an investment product, but the interesting thing about non-recourse loans is that they can be deployed by self-directed retirement accounts to own real estate.

Your self-directed IRA, as an example, would have to make a hefty down payment on a piece of real property, and there are rules about what your IRA can own and to whose benefit. But by means of the non-recourse loan, your IRA can own real estate to build your retirement nest egg.

But the answer to the main question is probably no, alas. I know of no primary-purchase mortgage loan that does not require the borrower to personally guarantee repayment.

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How to make money banking on the West Valley real estate market . . .

Want to get rich in real estate? A workable strategy might be to march your way west on this map:

If you click on the map, it opens to a larger, PDF version.

This is is significant chunk of the Southwest Valley in Metropolitan Phoenix. I’m showing you every major development that will affect real estate appreciation values — actual, probable and speculated.

Start by buying all the house you can afford in the eastern third of the map. Every two or three years, move yourself three to five miles further west, again buying all the house you can afford — from your income plus your accumulated equity. In five moves, you should have a ton of money regardless of your other investments.

Looking to invest in rental real estate instead — or as well? This map shows you where to move your money — again, slowly and incrementally to the west as development warrants. Your goal is to be where the great masses of people want to be — a year or two before they get there.

This is really not that large an area — it’s about 26 miles by 14 miles, 364 square miles. But as many as 1.5 million people will be moving into the area described by that map over the next twenty years.

Clearly, there is money to be made…

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John L Wake says: Buy . . .

From my email this morning, Phoenix-area Realtor and weblogger John L Wake offers this advice:

I recommend that anyone who has been waiting to buy or who was considering buying with in the next 6 months, that they now seriously consider buying within the next 6 to 8 weeks.

The argument is based in a statistical analysis of listings history, and John’s audio explanation of his charts is worth listening to.

I thought yesterday that a podcast with Russell Shaw would be a wonderful thing, and here’s another case where I’d really like to explore John’s numbers in detail. I’m going to have to do something about this…

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This is not to suggest that all Realtors are “professionals”

Electronic Mind ControlThe well informed and logical Kaye Thomas wrote:

It never ceases to amaze me that REALTORS are blamed for prices going up and down in the real estate market. Really, do you think if we had that type of power the market would be where it is now?

Here’s a secret known only to greedy, unscrupulous REALTORS we have nothing to do with the ups and downs in the real estate market. Buyers and Sellers are responsible. Buyers actually have more power then sellers. Basic market principles of supply and demand determine the market not agents. In the current market Buyers stopped buying when they determined that prices had gone too high. You can’t sell something if no one is buying. Sellers have two choices. Take their property off the market or reduce the price to a point that a Buyer finds value.

Believe me if I could “make” someone buy or sell real estate whenever I wanted I would make Bill Gates look like a pauper. I would be in my private jet somewhere between Maui and Hilton Head and would always be playing golf on the best courses in the world.

Then “Pop” rudely responded with the following:

Your statements are lies. Clients generally have day jobs, and rely on professionals for good advice when making a purchase. Realtors don’t disclose, and most clients don’t realize, that increases in transaction volume and transaction price are the realtors lifeblood.

Realtors generally are more than willing to recommend financing sources, especially for that sub-prime buyer.

Realtors also advised their clients during the multiple contracts spending spree of the past several years. Statements like, “Real estate never goes down.” or “You’d better get in before you get priced out” have strongly contributed to buyers decisions to over-extend themselves. After all, to the average schmuck, Realtors are the experts.

Realtors certainly know appraisers that will make sure the property meets or exceeds it’s finance target.

And, most importantly, Realtors (being in sales) certainly have a ripe understanding of the role that emotion and buyer psychology have in setting a price point. Appealing to greed and fear at the margins of the Read more