There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Investment (page 18 of 20)

HARD MONEY: Life as a Legal Loan Shark

Loan broking in the private mortgage marketplace can be the most rewarding sector of the lending. I have helped families who faced foreclosure due to unforeseen negative events. I’ve watched a businesswoman land a huge contract because she could access quick capital. I’ve beamed with pride as a property investor turned around a dilapidated multi-family complex and provided quality housing for 20 families.

None of these positive events came to fruition with out the loan shark. The “loan shark” is a pejorative term accorded to participants in this industry. The loan broker charges relatively high points or fees and the private investor (or lender) charges high rates. I offer you an explanation for the expensive terms these loans offer:

1- This market is diminutive when compared to the amount of capital available in the secondary mortgage markets. The loan broker has a finite amount of capital available to him because these loans are held for investment by the private lender and not securitized. The economic principle of scarcity of supply applies in this market. A loan broker who specializes in this market may only have five to ten million dollars available each year to lend. Origination fees of 3% to 6% are not uncommon because of the scarcity of capital.

2- The private mortgage lender has many other investment options available to her. Investing in a mortgage-backed securities pool, guaranteed by a government agency (like a Ginnie Mae pass-through security) is going to yield approximately 6% in today’s environment. There is no risk of default to that investor because an agency of the US Government guarantees those loans . If we start with 6% as a baseline (and zero default rate), it becomes apparent why yields of 10-14% are not uncommon for the risk the private lender takes (default rate for private mortgage loans can be as high as 8-10%). Default brings unwanted complications for the private mortgage investor: temporary loss of income, legal action, and eventual disposal of the collateral.

Responsibility in the underwriting of these loans becomes more important because a loan broker is dealing with an individual investor’s nest egg, not an Read more

From Rotating Careers To Gold Fish Johns

Though always searching for cool real estate blogs, once you’ve been looking for awhile the nuggets are discovered much less often. Happily I ran into one I’m sure many of you already know about. For those of you on the late bus along with me, I recommend you click over to Sacramento Real Estate Blog. John Lockwood at times shows how to take transparency to new levels.

His post promoting his newsletter is inspired. I Take It All Back speaks for itself. His transparency in the post reviewing the past year was a story I’ve seen repeated over and over. Yet, John lets us inside his head as he roams back and forth, struggling to discover just what he really wants to do.

John is smarter than the average bear, and funnier than the average blogger. Take a look, you won’t regret it. The guy is worth your time, I promise. He’s also faster than I am. Imagine my surprise to find a post, in part about a simple comment I made on his site yesterday.

Seriously, take a look at this guy.

Who Wants Ice Cream?!

Ever ask a bunch of nine year old kids if they wanted some ice cream? Ever ask your 16 year old son if he wanted a new Mustang? Or my all time favorite — ever asked your wife if she wanted diamonds for Valentine’s Day? Did any of those questions need to be asked? Are the answers to those questions in doubt?

So I have a question for you. But before I ask it, let me tell you in advance that I’ve been surprised more than once by the answer. Unlike the three questions above, this one sometimes gets run through some pretty funky filters, leading to surprising answers. In the time I’ve been doing this for a living, I’ve learned much about how people think. And the phrase ‘you never know’ doesn’t begin to cover it. What the mind believes can so easily overpower not only reality, but can lead people to do things against their own best interest. People will believe some things in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Here’s an example.

Myth: Putting butter on a burn will ease the pain.

Reality: Immediately after receiving a burn, it is important to cool the skin in order to stop the burning process. Putting butter or other greasy ointments on a burn may actually make things worse, since the grease will slow the release of heat from the skin, allowing damage to the skin from the burn to continue. The best way to cool the skin after a burn is with coool water, not ice or ice water. An antibiotic ointment and a bandage will aid the healing process. According to doctors, leave the butter for your toast.

Most of us have heard about using butter as a burn remedy. My aunt once told me to hold a stick of butter on my fingers after a 4th of July sparkler burned them. But don’t we all know someone who would, in the face Read more

What Isaac Newton Knew About Mortgage Lending

I recently wrote about sub-prime loans for the first time in a long while because the sector should start taking more headlines in the papers.

I’d hate for you to be unready for it, of course. Sub-prime loans are a big part of mortgage lending.

“Sub-prime” is a broad-sweeping term for the large percentage of loans that won’t get bought by the quasi-government agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The opposite of “sub-prime” is “conforming”, as in: these loans conform to the guidelines set forth by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to be eligible for purchase.

Typically, the credit profile of a sub-prime borrower includes one or more of the following characteristics:

  • Low credit scores
  • History of derogatory credit (i.e. bankruptcy, foreclosure)
  • Currently delinquent on their home loan
  • Lack of credit history or credit depth
  • Low asset levels
  • Low income levels or non-verifiable income levels
  • High loan-to-value combined with low income versus debt
  • Contains “random” circumstance that introduces risk

Just because a person exhibits one or more of these traits, however, doesn’t mean that he is automatically a sub-prime borrower. This set of guidelines is very general.

Even though “sub-prime” has negative connotation to it, sub-prime loans serve a very important purpose. Sub-prime loans provide home financing to people who otherwise would not be approved for a loan at all. Remember: they don’t conform to the government guidelines!

Recently, sub-prime lenders have fallen into a world of hurt because the default risk that is inherent in every sub-prime loan is being realized with alarming frequency. Lest you think these defaults are surprising the markets, this is a problem two years in the making and industry insiders know it.

See, the one very important difference between conforming and sub-prime loans is that conforming loans are eventually bundled and sold on Wall Street as long-term bonds called mortgage-backed securities. Sub-prime loans, by contrast, are short-term. Conforming loans are overwhelmingly of the 30-year fixed variety, but sub-prime mortgages are of the 2-year ARM variety.

To understand why this matters, it’s important to review how adjustable rate mortgages work.

With all ARMs, the lender agrees to collect interest at a fixed rate for some period of time. When that period Read more

If Retirement’s Called Your ‘Golden Years’ Why Shouldn’t You Keep The Gold?

If you’re in the state/fed combined tax bracket of 33.3% and your home mortgage is interest only at 6%, your after tax rate is 4%. But you knew that, right? And if your loan is say, $200K, then your annual interest deduction is $12k. At your 1/3 tax bracket your actual interest paid is only $8K. This means you are not paying $4k in income taxes just because you own your home. Big deal you say, everyone knows that. True enough. But is there a way to take further advantage of that tax break?

What if you’re married and you’ve been putting $4k annually in your 401k. Why do people do this? They do it because they’ve been pounded since they can remember — “you’re saving taxes on every buck you put into your 401k. Don’t be an foolish, keep doing it.” What if you took the $4k in tax savings from your home interest deduction and put it into something that might grow tax free? Why would you insist on taking an additional $4k and locking it inside a retirement plan that’s telling you up front it’s going to tax everything that comes out in retirement income? And that tax rate will probably be the same or more than what you’re paying now. And we’ll tax your heirs when both of you are gone.

Golden years

“But my retirement tax bracket will be significantly lower than it is now” you reply confidently. Not so fast. Aren’t you and your wife doing your best to end up with a free and clear castle by the time you pick up your gold watch? If you guys put the same $4k in the retirement plan (401k/IRA) every year for 35 years and it grows at an average rate of 8%, you’ll have around $690K. At that same 8% you’ll have an annual income to add to your Social Security check (laughing in backround) of roughly $51,750 — pretty nice, eh? Not so fast. You’re earning too much possibly. What? Social Security may become taxable with your increased income. In any case, your retirement income is about what Read more

The frumpiest little dump in the Midwest makes news again . . .

O, the ignominy! Danville, IL is in the news again

This time, my frowsy little fly-blown hometown amends its past notoriety as the cheapest-of-the-cheap housing markets by refusing to release its abysmal sales data at all:

[T]he Danville Board of Realtors in Illinois has decided to withhold sales data from the National Association of Realtors trade group after the Danville metro area ranked as the lowest-price market in the nation during the second quarter of 2006.

“We looked into it – all avenues of what we should do,” stated Debbie Borgwald, executive officer of the Danville board, in the article. “We want to let people know Danville is a great place to live.” She also told the newspaper that the low prices for the metro area had generated negative publicity.

I personally am only interested in rental homes that will appreciate in value. It’s nice to be cash-flow neutral or even mildly positive, but all the money from residential real estate investing comes from leveraged appreciation. An “alligator” in a growth market is the world’s most lovable pet.

However… If you’re the kind of investor who likes to buy cheap dumps for the positive cash-flow that can accrue from providing affordable rental housing to motorcycle enthusiasts and tenants even less savory, by all means go to Danville. You can pick up single-family homes for $20,000 or less. The rent might only be $300 or $350, but the houses will throw off positive cash-flow no matter how you finance them. Plenty to choose from, too…

Real Estate: The Big Ballers’ Crap Shoot

My hands were sweaty as I nervously darted my eyes around the craps table . I was the pariah because I was “betting on the don’t line”. This particular strategy can be extraordinarily frustrating when a table gets hot. It requires a bettor to double up his stake each time he is incorrect. It takes incredible faith in the mathematical probability of a negative result.

“Seven Out!” yelled the croupier.

Victory, while inevitable, doesn’t really feel that sweet. I risked $2500 to win five bucks. I proved my strategy to the reckless gamblers betting the other way. I yelped exuberantly, not for my intellectual superiority, but in relief that my bet, the family vacation money, hadn’t disappeared. While I was yelping, the players at my table were pocketing pink and black chips and cheering raucously. Confused, I learned that they were collecting chips every time those dice hit various numbers on the way to making ten straight points .

Now craps may seem like a poor analogy to the real estate market. It really isn’t. I know that craps, a loaded game of chance, always favors the house no matter what strategy you employ. Real estate is a loaded game of chance; the best thing about it is that it is loaded in the owner’s favor. The “MySpace Generation” and the immigrant population are entering the housing market in the next 10 years. The demographics are astoundingly favorable, especially for the sunbelt states.

I think all the bubbleheads and doom pundits should yelp. You were absolutely correct this year. 2006, perhaps part of 2007, will be the year (s) of the bubbleheads. Gloat! Wipe your brow with confidence in your marked intelligence. I commend you for your prowess. You had to be correct one of these years; you had mathematics on your side.

Take a look around. Your neighbor sold that rental property in Anaheim and lost $30,000. So why, like the gamblers betting on the come line, is he Read more

A Realtor’s Guide to Alien Lenders

“First you get the money, then you get the power, then you get the ….”

-Tony Montana in the movie, Scarface

The professional Realtor has always helped a would be homebuyer by referring her to a credible financing source. That paradigm has shifted much in the past few years as lenders have positioned themselves as the first stop on the home buying highway. Our marketing message has basically been the aforementioned Tony Montana quote. That message has caused a new phenomenon for Realtors that I call “Alien Mortgage Originators”. The point of my post here is to temper the xenophobia that exists in Realtors’ hearts when dealing with Alien Mortgage Originators. These five tips will help Realtors identify which Alien Originators are credible and which are just a voice on the phone looking to scalp your buyer.

1- The first question to ask an Alien Originator is one you hear down South a lot. “Just who are your people?” Southerners, wary of carpetbaggers, find that question an effective way of finding common bonds. The internet is an inexpensive way to let Alien Originators broadcast who “our people” are so google them. Maybe the connection is a college tie, an old job, an old hometown, etc. When you ask me that question, it humanizes both you and me. Now… we both cheer for the Arizona Cardinals, or both dated Julie from Joliet, or both went to Big East colleges. It’s not much to both cheer for the Arizona Cardinals but I’m less likely to let you down knowing that small fact about you.

2- The second question would be to ask for referrals, preferably from Realtors within your town or franchise. Why the Realtor rather than the client? Realtors have inside intelligence about originators that a client wouldn’t. I love when I’m funding a purchase with a Keller Williams agent because I know so many of them. I understand their Belief System and can recite it for them. I know “their” rules. An Alien Originator wants to show off his stuff to a new Realtor relationship. If the Alien Originator has no common referral sources for Read more

Not just any fools: Heavy on the light rail propaganda, please . . .

Almost three years ago, The Goldwater Institute, a free-market think tank in Phoenix, published a devastating accounting of the light rail system now being built in Metropolitan Phoenix:

[The Maricopa Association of Governments]’s public transit plans deserve close scrutiny. Use of urban public transportation systems has been in decline since the end of World War II, when public transit provided 50 percent of urban travel. Last year, only three percent of urban travel in America was provided by public transit. This decline has occurred despite prodigious government efforts to prevent it. Governments now spend 30 to 40 times as much on public transit as for roadways. But evidence suggests that transit is not the most effective use of public transportation dollars.

Of all the options in the public transit mix, light rail deserves the most scrutiny. Because it requires its own special track, it lacks the flexibility of buses, which use existing city streets. And because tracks would be constructed on existing city streets, light rail in the Phoenix region is actually projected to increase traffic congestion. Furthermore, in no city in America does light rail transit account for much more than one percent of urban person-miles of travel. The Phoenix light rail system is projected to account for only two-tenths of one percent of travel in the region.

The average cost of light rail per passenger-mile is around $1.50, almost double the cost of bus transit, and five times the cost of automobile transportation per vehicle-mile. On average, taxpayers pay nearly 90 percent of the cost of light rail passenger travel, considerably more than for all other transit modes. Worst of all, light rail would do almost nothing to relieve traffic congestion. Because 80 percent of new light rail passengers in Maricopa County would be former bus passengers, light rail would remove less than one car in 1,000 from traffic.

To my knowledge, no one has ever challenged the numbers in this report — perhaps because it is based entirely on Valley Metro’s own projections. The Arizona Republic dismissed it with high-handed hand-waving, insisting — I kid you not — that people say that Read more

Investor’s Version Of Grandpa’s Coffee Can — Diversification

For the first time I’d like to post, almost simultaneously, (simulpost?) on a subject which has facinated me for years. My purpose is merely to introduce the subject. A meatier post will follow.

Investors have been told by Wall Street to diversify since the street signs were put up on the corner of Wall and Broad in Manhattan. On the surface it seems a more than reasonable principle. After all, the only reason for its existence is to avoid losses. And who in their right mind doesn’t want to avoid losses? Indeed.

Warren Buffett and George Soros are both multi-billionaires — due solely to their ability to invest in winners. They think diversification is for those who simply don’t know what they’re doing. This is because they define risk as the result of not knowing what you’re doing. It’s ironic that most of their investments are in businesses that haven’t diversified themselves.

Money Filled Coffee CAn

Here’s what Mr. Buffett had to say to his own shareholders 13 years ago:

“The strategy we’ve adopted precludes our following standard diversification dogma. Many pundits would therefore say the strategy must be riskier than that employed by more conventional investors. We disagree. We believe that a policy of portfolio concentration may well decrease risk if it raises, as it should, both the intensity with which an investor thinks about a business and the comfort-level he must feel with its economic characteristics before buying into it.”- 1993 Chairman’s Letter to Shareholders

Mr. Soros seems to like the more direct approach:

“Diversification is for the birds.”

They both have been quoted saying:

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”

We laugh at the thought of the coffee can full of cash buried in the backyard. But it’s not funny. The reason the old guy did that was because he simply didn’t know what else to do. He did know one thing for sure — he didn’t want to lose what he had earned so far. Fear of loss and not knowing what one is doing is what risk is all about.

Since when do fear and ignorance combine to create great investment portfolios? Mr. Buffett and Mr. Soros say Read more

How Much Is An Excellent Assistant Worth? Are You Kidding?

My company is a two horse operation. And one of the horses has just been cleared to take on riders. Although in the past I’ve had several assistants, I’ve found that when it’s all boiled down, my business is built on the foundation of — homework. In the past my assistants were trainees on their way to becoming full time investment agents. So as soon as they became really good at being an assistant, they were allowed access to the next level. And I’d be back at square one — again.

It’s about to happen for the last time as my son has finished two years of training. He’s been my right hand, assistant, TC, ‘road guy’, and general doer of those things we’d all rather avoid. And now I have to figure out how to replace the irreplaceable. The cost to train and retain long term, an employee as effective as Josh would literally be unaffordable. How do you find someone who can solve problems, keep clients happy, snap the whip, and million other things? And on top of all that care as much as I do about the results? You probably don’t.

Enter Becky Bethke. Calling her a diamond in the rough would be damning her with faint praise. We’ve done about 20 transactions in the general Boise region in the last two quarters this year. Not a tremendous number, but enough to test the local supporting cast. I’ve gone through two escrows, two title companies, three lenders, two property inspectors, and a partridge in a pear tree. And one Transaction Coordinator. Though calling her a TC is an undeserved compliment to TC’s everywhere.

I won’t bore you with the details, but outside of delivering pizza and beer when escrows close, Becky does everything else. She calls her company The Closing Source. She calls herself a Transaction Coordinator. Trust me, she’s not a TC, not even close. My mom was an executive secretary back when that’s what they called executive assistants. In her prime she wouldn’t be a better assistant than Becky.

Virtual Assistant

When we are successful in acquiring another Boise property Read more

Everybody loves Ramen . . .

Here’s a true fact of life for almost everyone with a real estate license: This job pays really badly.

Here’s a true fact of life for a favored few people with real estate licenses: This job pays really well.

I don’t know if we can safely count ourselves among the favored few just yet, but being Realtors is throwing off a lot of cash for us, and that cash is throwing off a lot of opportunities to make more cash.

Last year was phenomenal, of course, and this year hasn’t been awful for us, considering how awful it was for other Realtors in Phoenix. We got a lot choosier about listings, which helped keep our money in our pockets, and we’ve both done more than we ever have before with new builds.

But: Do Realtors “deserve” all the money they make? I’ve had transactions — two closing later this month — where my total involvement was around five hours. I’ve had others that have run to hundreds of hours over the course of years. But looking at my added-value by hours or tasks or ergs of energy expended is a mistake. The value I bring to the transaction comes from knowing what to do, how, when — and why. Our clients do a lot better because of our involvement, and they are gracious enough to say so.

For now, our earning goal is $1,000 a day, each, call it $700,000 a year, gross. Obviously our expenses are huge, as are our taxes (grr!). Worse yet, we’re not hitting that goal yet. And to put things in perspective, Russell Shaw’s annual broadcast advertising spend approaches our total earning goal.

In the near term, I think we can double our numbers to something like $1.5 million a year, before taxes and expenses. From there, with a couple of assistants each, we might be able to push things to that amount, gross, each. In other words, without growing our head-count very much, we might be able to knock down $3 million a year in gross commission income. The net from that might not be all that great, considering, but it Read more

Why The Fed Matters to Real Estate

Ben Bernanke HeadshotThe Federal Open Market Committee meets today and will keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 5.250%. It is not what the Fed does, however, that should concern Americans. It’s what the Fed says.

First, a clarification. The Fed Funds Rate is directly tied to Prime rate which impacts lines of credit for businesses and homeowners. Ben Bernanke & Co. do not control mortgage interest rates which are determined by the mortgage-backed securities markets. This is another conversation for another time.

When the Fed adjourns this afternoon, it will issue a press release in which it will discuss the economy and inflation. The statement — not the interest rate — is the news worth watching because inflation can unravel markets and push mortgage rates back to their highest levels of the year.

The chain of events is pretty logical:

  • If inflation is growing at a faster clip than the Fed wants, it will tell the markets
  • If it tells the markets, markets will know that the United States Federal Reserve expects the dollar to lose value over time
  • If the U.S. dollar is expected to lose value over time, the U.S. dollar will be “worth less” to foreign nations
  • If the U.S. dollar is “worth less” to foreign nations, foreign nations will buy fewer U.S.-denominated securities because the relative returns will be less, too
  • If foreign nations buy fewer U.S.-denominated securities because the relative returns is less, the demand for mortgage-backed bonds will drop
  • If the demand for mortgage-backed bonds drop, the price of mortgage-backed bonds will drop
  • If the price of mortgage-backed bonds drops, the yield of mortgage-backed bonds will increase
  • If the yield of mortgage-backed bonds increases, then mortgage rates go up for Americans

It’s a long road to get to the conclusion, but this is the manner in which the Fed impacts real estate and mortgage lending. So when your local daily shows the headline “Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged”, don’t think the coast is clear. Read the article and dig a little deeper — it’s not what they did, it’s what they said.

Retirement Lifestyle: 3 Quick Peeks Into Your Future

I just got off the phone with a delightful lady, who has been assigned the impossible task of editing my blog. She’s now reviewing what I’ve done so far, and her preliminary opinion is that I’m not inarticulate. I’ll await her final call with as little anxiety as possible.

She did pose an excellent question about what I do.

She asked, and I’m paraphrasing here big time, “What about regular folk who are just plain afraid of taking that first step in investing in real estate for their retirement? The thought makes me more than a little nervous. Don’t most people fear their first foray into that world?”

Well, yes and no. Most have concluded on their own that the plan currently in place for retirement might be lacking in foresight. However, many think that if they just keep paying down their home loans, saving money in their 401K/IRA’s, and not living beyond their means, everything will work out. This is when they need a heavy dose of “I’ll never live that way” reality. The old ‘free & clear’ home plan is one of the most dangerous myths going today for Baby Boomers. It’s a prescription for a spirit crushing existence in what should be some of the best years of their lives.

Spirit crushing? If your kids live out of town, you can’t afford to visit them very often if at all without them paying your way. Trips to tropical islands sipping exotic drinks with umbrellas in them are not on your menu. Birthday and various holiday gifts – send a card because the money simply isn’t there. It’s Valentine’s Day and you want to take her to that ‘special’ place? You just don’t have an extra $100 for that. It gnaws at your spirit.

Many of us know retired folks living that life. It’s not a ‘lifestyle’ — it’s a life sentence.

I show investors three possibilities for their retirement lifestyle.

One is the status quo plan. They end up with $50-100k in their 401k, have a Social Security check for up to roughly $2k monthly, and if they can earn say 6% Read more

Bearding the BawldGuy in the land of the never-setting sun . . .

BawldGuy Jeff Brown was in Phoenix yesterday, and he made time to sit down with Cathleen and me before he flew back to San Diego. We had a wonderful time talking about real estate and inhaling Cheesecake Factory desserts.

I’d tell you more, but I accidentally sold a house today, so I have to open escrow and then go buy 93,000 packages of Top Ramen.

In any case, I’m showing this picture for two reasons. First, the BawldGuy really is that bald. And second, he really is that much fun to be around.

I like him so much I may even share some of my Top Ramen with him…

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