There’s always something to howl about.

Category: General (page 7 of 23)

Holiday Greetings from the left coast

A classic Holiday (er, winter solstice) Greeting from a friend in Lodi (hat tip to Rolff):

Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit my best wishes 
for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low stress, 
non-addictive, gender neutral celebration of the winter solstice 
holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the 
religious persuasion or secular practices of your choice, with 
respect for the religious/secular persuasions and/or traditions of 
others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all;

PLUS

A fiscally successful, personally fulfilling, and medically 
uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted 
calendar year, but not without due respect for the calendars of 
choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped 
make America great, (not to imply that America is necessarily greater 
than any other country or is the only “AMERICA” in the western 
hemisphere), and without regard to race, creed, color, age, physical 
ability, religious faith, or choice of computer platform.

(Disclaimer: By accepting this greeting, you are accepting these 
terms. This greeting is subject to clarification or withdrawal. It is 
freely transferable with no alteration to the original greeting. It 
implies no promise by the wisher to actually implement any of the 
wishes for her/himself or others, and is void where prohibited by 
law, and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wisher. This wish 
is warranted to perform as expected within the usual application of 
good tidings for a period of one year, or until the issuance of a 
subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first, and warranty is 
limited to replacement of this wish or issuance of a new wish at the 
sole discretion of the wisher who assumes no responsibility for any 
unintended emotional stress these greetings may bring to those not 
caught up in the holiday spirit.)

And you wonder why they can’t balance the budget in California.. Merry Christmas..

Think Your Taxes Are Going Down? Think Again

In A Few Years We’ll Be Calling These Days The Good Ol’ Days

Some believe that in the coming administration, their taxes will be lowered. Some even believe that they won’t have to worry about buying gas… or paying their mortgage… as Obama will make sure that all is well.

Let me tell you how the cow will eat the cabbage.

As of this writing, the federal government has pumped $2 trillion into places of which – thus far – they will not even divulge where the money is going. Keep in mind that is $2 trillion during a so-called “conservative” administration. At this rate, we will soon see a big spike in inflation as our money loses even more of its value. Our dollar has lost 27% over the last eight years… and these bailouts are nothing more than the government printing money – therefore making the remaining money supply worth that much less.

One of the changes that will take place at the end of the year is the revision of the capital gains exclusion – a change that will not benefit the taxpayer. Current tax law provides a $250K exclusion ($500K for married couples) from capital gains taxes on a primary residence that the taxpayer lived in for two of the previous five years. The new law will prorate the exclusion based upon how many years the taxpayer actually lives in the home.

Meanwhile, the inflation from the printing presses at the Treasury is going to cause a rise in the prices of everything – food, commodities, wages, housing… you name it. Higher wages will result in higher taxes due to the phenomena of bracket creep… and although real estate will rise in real value, it’s value on paper will appear to be much greater due to this inflation.

As many have noticed over the last ten years, property taxes have gone up as a result of tax assessors using higher property values as a means to get more money for the government coffers… and now as property values are declining, those same assessors are not interested in lowering those taxes. In many cases, Read more

Social Media And What Matters

Here we are again. There’s a few Social Media (SM) venues that have real estate folks all agog. Between Facebook (FB), Linkedin (LI), and Twitter (T), you’d think agents all over the country have had their careers rescued by the magical powers of SM. Let’s find out, OK?

I preface the following by ensuring you I have no dog in this fight. I’d truly like to find a plausible answer. It’s my guess I’m not rowin’ that boat alone, either.

Yesterday on T I posed the question: Who out there has done at least one closed transaction as a direct result of FB, LI, and/or T? At first all I heard were crickets. Then the conversation began in earnest. Everyone talked about referrals, and leads. Oh my, there were lots of leads. Turns out, much like SEO, bankers don’t accept leads as deposits. 🙂

There was a small handful here who said they’d closed A deal, and were pretty sure of its source being one of the three SM sites.

Then somebody said, “Seems the big hitters out there are being kinda quiet.”

My response to that was that most folks thought of as so called ‘big hitters’ aren’t nearly what they’re perceived to be. Though I’d like to find out there’re agents out there makin’ a consistently impressive killing on these SM sites, I’m skeptical.

To that end, I said I’d pose the question here. What better place?

So, all you agents out there depositing all those commission checks every month because of your skillful use of FB, LI, and T? Make yourself known, OK?

Here’s my experience, though you should know, it’s not much.

I’m not, nor have I ever been on FB. I’m on LI only because a consultant put me their themselves. The damn site irritates me no end. I get invites via email, mostly from folks I already know. That’s cool, right? However, as happened today, (and about 20% of the time) the invite link sends me to a LI page bereft of the ‘Accept’ button. And no, I don’t know, nor do I care why that happens. Read more

Pinching Pennies And Blowing The Big Bucks

Another Installment In The Saga Of Unintended Consequences

Most of us have been driving less, lately. Record high oil prices drove gasoline prices to over $4 a gallon – wreaking havoc on our personal budgets… and the nation’s economy as a whole.

Last Friday, I stopped in to visit my mechanic – and as usual, he told me about the car he was busy working on. This time, it was an engine rebuild due to “bad gas”.

“Bad gas?” I asked.

“The deposits built up so that the valves wouldn’t close properly,” he replied. “We’ve had four rebuilds in the last few weeks. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

While it might be bad gas – I have another take on it. With the enormous increase in fuel costs, most of us are driving like little old ladies – myself included. But driving for maximum fuel economy is not necessarily good for your engine, as it allows carbon to build up on your valves.

I first learned about this in the early 80’s, as my mechanic back then told me about one of his customers – an elderly lady – who would bring her car in every few months so that he could take it out on the freeway and give it a good run.

You can tell when your engine needs to get the carbon blown out, as your engine will be idling rough. The best way to blow the carbon out is to accelerate hard on a freeway onramp – running it through the gears until you get up to highway speed. It works best when there is a good load on your vehicle, such as climbing a hill.

I have “blown the carbon” out of my vehicles for years – and I even have a friend who asks me to take her car out a few times a year to blow her carbon out, as she’s uncomfortable doing it herself.

Another tip is to have your fuel injectors professionally cleaned, which also can help keep your engine’s valves clean.

An engine rebuild is not inexpensive  – it is a repair that can cost thousands of dollars. So before Read more

The Last Vestige of Respect… Gone

With a little over a week to go in this election, we can finally all come together in agreement on one issue.  Whether you are voting for McCain: the logical vote, or voting for Obama: the emotional vote, or voting third party: the non-viable vote (unfortunately) – one thing has become clear.  The mainstream press has given up all pretense of being unbiased in their coverage.  They are blatantly shilling.  Whether we like the candidate they are whoring for or not, any respect we could have is gone.  The fourth estate has lost all legitimacy.

This final nail in the coffin was delivered by CNN earlier this week.  By all accounts, CNN has been as neutral as possible during the election.  They appear a little left of center by most accounts, yet they have been relatively even in their coverage.  What respect they deserved is now gone too.  On Tuesday night, Drew Griffin interviewed Governor Sarah Palin.  Watch the video at about 1:25 in and listen to the question Mr. Griffin asks of Governor Palin.  She is visibly shaken by it:

Now please read the actual paragraph that Mr. Griffin is quoting from the National Review.  It was written by Byron York (not a difficult fact to find out Mr. Griffin) :

Watching press coverage of the Republican candidate for vice president, it’s sometimes hard to decide whether Sarah Palin is incompetent, stupid, unqualified, corrupt, backward, or — or, well, all of the above. Palin, the governor of Alaska, has faced more criticism than any vice-presidential candidate since 1988… (full article here)

The first and last lines change the meaning a little don’t you think?  To say Mr. Griffin quoted Mr. York to Governor Palin out of context would be an understatement. The National Review article now has an Editor’s Note that reads in part:

Editor’s note: Byron York’s recent article in National Review on Sarah Palin’s time as governor of Alaska became a campaign issue Tuesday when CNN’s Drew Griffin distorted its meaning in a high-profile interview with Palin.

You can, of course, Google all of this and you can read Read more

An Update on the Bailout….

and yes, after doing some more reading on it, I do still consider it a bailout.

I’m going to put a copy of a post that Yves at Naked Capitalism wrote in italics and then my comments will be interspersed in bold print and then I’ve got more thoughts at the end.

Hope this helps you understand it better.

Congressional Charade: Changes in Bailout Bill Cosmetic, and Everyone Knows That

For a quick, one-stop synopsis of the Mother of All Bailouts (as of this month), see this readable version at Clusterstock (we’ve become a recent convert to this site).

Reader and sometimes contributor Lune, who was once a Congressional staffer and still subscribes to the the inside-the-Beltway press, provided a wrap of their coverage of the bailout bill. It makes clear that everyone understands that turning Hank Paulson’s three pager into a 110 page draft made for a nice fig leaf but made virtually no substantive difference.

Gee, why doesn’t that surprise me.   They added 107 pages of rules and regulations and it’s basically just spelling out the same difference as before.

From Lune:

Well folks, we’re almost to a done deal (certainly closer than Thursday). The Hill papers are reporting that they’re getting closer in both the Senate and the House to the needed votes to pass the new bailout bill. Roll Call gives the most frank assessment of what happened over the weekend in an article entitled “Same Bailout, New Dynamic” (subtitle: Outrage Prompts Sales Effort).

All the late-night talks, last-minute demands and dramatic pronouncements aside, the fundamental structure of a $700 billion Wall Street rescue plan that Congress spent the weekend wrangling over has not changed significantly from the outline proposed by a bipartisan group of Senators and House Members last Thursday.

Did you hear that?:  It’s basically the same deal as last week Thursday, just spun differently.

“This is in essence the same,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who attended those talks.
. . .
Assuming enough House Republicans agree to vote for the package, it appeared that the House could vote as early as today, while the Senate might have to wait to take it up Wednesday after Rosh Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review – to Bail or not to Bail?

Yikes, every week it’s getting more and more challenging to lay out for you what’s going on in the markets.   Hopefully it will get easier, but I’m not really sure that it will for a while.  So what are we going to talk about this week?   This week it’s about the proposed bailout, the biggest bank failure in the history of our country, and a few thoughts from Dick DeVos (huh – trust me, it will fit in later).

The bailout – $700,000,000,000.00. That’s how much money the Treasury wants to have to bail out the troubled financial institutions.   What do they want to do?   Here it is in a nutshell:

  • They want to buy approximately 5% of the mortgage backed securities (presumably the worst ones) from the banks and investment institutions.
  • Why?  The theory is that if they take those loans off their books, that will free those institutions to start lending again (start loading up their books with better loans this time.)
  • Do we have any guarantee that it will work?   Nope, the only guarantee we have is the word of Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke, both of whom are very smart but both of whom have been wrong on numerous occasions as the credit crisis has spread.
  • Would the tax payer end up paying for the entire $700 Billion?  Long term, probably substantially less than that because, depending on how the portfolio gets managed, because these loans are backed up by assets (houses) and the value of those won’t go the way of Washington Mutual stock and become worthless.
  • Will banks immediately turn around and start lending more to others?   That’s a question that we don’t know the answer to.
  • I read an article this morning that said that the Central Banks might actually be making the problem worse.   How so?   They keep pumping more money into the system and that is making it easy for banks to borrow money from the Fed so they don’t have to borrow money from each other and that has put a squeeze on the normal credit markets.   Interesting Read more

The Vanderwell Proposal – “Project Rebuild Banking”

Since Secretary Paulson put his proposal in three pages, I’m going to lay out my proposal in less space than that.   Here goes:

Point #1 – The Treasury is hereby authorized to spend up to $700 Billion to stabilize the banking and financial services sector in such manner as it sees fit.   There will be two main priorities in their decision making:  a) To increase the flow of credit in the banking and mortgage markets so that the healthy of the economy is improved, not hindered and b) To increase the likelihood that eventually the taxpayer will receive a profit rather than incur a loss.

Point #2 – Any institution that sells any “troubled” assets to the  Treasury shall sell them at a price that is established by joint decision of the Treasury, the institution, and a committee formed of 2 members of the Senate Banking Committee, the Vice President of the United States, and 2 members of the House Banking Committee and the chairman of the SEC.   The target price shall be no more than 45 cents on the dollar.   Under no situation will the purchase price be more than 50 cents on the dollar without the joint approval of the House and Senate Banking Committees, and no more than 65 cents on a dollar without approval by the full Congress.

Point #3 – Any institution that sells troubled assets to the Treasury shall immediately reduce their dividend to 20% of what it was (can be adjusted for inflation annually according to the CPI), and all officer level employees (from the CEO down 3 levels on the corporate hierarchy) will have their salary reduced to a maximum of 3 times the average salary that they pay their employees.   So if the average Bank of America employee makes $50,000 per year, the CEO’s salary will be no more than $150,000.

Point #4 – If the institution is currently servicing the debt, they will remain servicing the debt and will provide monthly reports to the Treasury on the status of the payment history, collection procedures and, if necessary, foreclosure efforts.

Point #5 – If a bank, like Read more

Alex, I’ll Take “Terrifying” for $1000

Even with all the financial failure that surrounds us, I still find myself loathe to accept any type of government intervention.  We throw around comments like “too big to fail” but rarely examine the end game.  Greg Swann recently reposted a very intelligent treatise on something he likes to call Rotarian Socialism and how each “fix” only begets a greater problem down the road.  As a matter of fact, Mr. Swann and I share a healthy fear of government and the implied force of violence that backstops all regulations and laws.

Earlier this week I followed a story out of Spokane, WA.  It centers around a Mr. Kevin Coe, convicted rapist and suspected serial rapist.  For the relevant details and background on this story click here.  Mr. Coe, however, is not the scary part of this story:

Coe has completed his sentence of 25 years in prison, but he is not getting out of jail yet.  Starting tomorrow, Coe faces a civil trial as the state tries to keep him locked up indefinitely as a violent sexual predator.

“We think he’s mentally ill and dangerous,” said Todd Bowers of the state Attorney General’s Office.

In 1990, Washington became the first state to create a program to keep behind bars people determined to be at risk of committing more sex crimes even after they have completed their sentences. A special facility near Tacoma holds about 300 of them, including Coe, whose sentence was completed in 2006.

A person is convicted of a crime and sentenced.  He never allocutes; he maintains his innocence throughout (despite the government’s repeated attempts at blackmail offered in the form of early parole) and he serves his FULL TERM.  At which time the government continues to keep him locked up; found guilty by a jury of legislators, of having the potential to commit another crime.

The state reserves the power to take away your property, your liberty and your very life.  They enforce this power at the tip of a gun.  All laws, all regulations (and, apparently now, all judgment on potential) is maintained by the government, ultimately, on penalty of death.  The abrogation Read more

Every now and then…..

Every now and then, I get one of those moments that puts life in a different perspective.   You know, the times when you look at all of the “stuff” that you deal with every day and realize that it’s not nearly as important as you’d like to think it is?

I had one of those tonight.  I got an e-mail from a close personal friend of mine who is an orphanage director in Haiti at the orphanage that two of my kids came from and she shared some very troubling news about what they are dealing with there.

I wrote about it in more detail at Straight Talk About Mortgages and shared it with Greg and he encouraged me to write a brief post and put a link to more details.   I’d really appreciate it if you would take a few minutes, click here and read more about what’s happening and how we have the opportunity to make a difference in the lives of people who are significantly less fortunate than we are, even if we are in a lousy market.

Thank you in advance,

Tom

L.A. Times sells Real Estate now…

Jon Karlen continues to beat me to the punch! Yesterday he reported the Los Angeles Times’ new real estate auction venture. The original hat tip goes to Forbes.com this time.

When Bob Wilson mentioned in the comments of the last post about the LA Times that this was not the end of dead tree media, but the genesis of their online effort, he was correct IMO then. This certainly supports that.

Thoughts?

Is it sink, swim, or just taking a deep breath to find buoyancy?

It’s Saturday, which means it’s my Sunday, which means it’s my one day off if I’m lucky.  This last month has been the busiest I have seen this year.  The choices of my clients, both on the buying and listing side have seemed more challenging now than I have ever seen.  Well, that’s not entirely true, many buyers have had no problem sitting on the fence.  On top of that, the opportunities that have been presented to me have be overly scrutinized this week.  I was out to dinner last night with some guests from out of town when it hit me.  The stress and lack of sleep has had me going around acting somewhat zombie like,  I literally responded to the Maitre ds question of “how are you this evening?” with a “nnnnyaeh”.  The obviousness of my failing condition was now as apparent as the gibberish expelled from my throat.

Now before this comes across an absolute whining session for me to vent off the frustrations of my life at the moment, let me tell you that I have the tools to navigate rough waters.  I’ve been here before, as we all have.  The bumps along the way keep it interesting if nothing else, right?   The unpredictable events the follow poor decision making are ones that can be reversed or taken into a more positive direction given the awareness of the direction of said bonehead moves.  I’ve never thought that it was helpful to beat one’s self up over what could be a mistake.  What I do feel is negligible is witnessing someone (or yourself) having the awareness of a mistake and keeping that action on the same path.  This, a good friend of mine would say is like sticking your head in the oven only to find that it’s too hot for a head, and then going  back again the next day to try it again and still find it’s still too warm…. though I could never figure out why somebody wanted stick their head the oven, the lesson was not lost on me.

Simplicity is always my best fix.  Making Read more

A Proposal to Improve Mortgage Lending….

Since there are a variety of licensing, regulation, education, criminal background check proposals bouncing around in an effort to clean up the mortgage world, I thought I’d throw out my own proposal on how to improve mortgage lending.

I’m proposing that as part of the training for becoming a mortgage lender, all originators be required to spend a minimum of 6 weeks working with a Realtor full time.  They would be required to essentially job shadow the Realtor in every aspect of the business.   What would they learn during their time?

  1. They would learn that Realtors don’t get weekly paychecks, they only get paid when they sell a house.
  2. They would learn that Realtors have many people putting pressure on them to “get the house closed.”   The seller wants to close so they don’t have to make another payment on it.  The buyer wants to close so that they don’t have to move twice.   The Realtor’s wife wants them to close so she has the money to buy groceries.   The Realtor’s daughter wants them to close so that Dad can buy her the stuff that she needs to “look good” going back to school.    The Realtor’s bank wants them to close so that he can make the payments that need to be made on the _______ (fill in the blank – car loan, lease, house payment, home equity payment).
  3. They would learn that there is a lot more to marketing a house that is for sale than a sign in the yard and a listing in the MLS.
  4. They would learn the intricacies of negotiating a purchase agreement and have a much better handle on the dynamics of the relationship between buyer and seller and the ways that a lender can avoid disturbing those relationships.
  5. They would realize that many Realtors care deeply that their buyers and sellers make wise decisions when they are buying or selling and aren’t just focusing on “how much can I make.”  Unfortunately, not all of them are focused that way.
  6. They would realize that there is a lot more that goes into determining what price to list a house at than the Read more

A-C-C-O-U-N-T-A-B-I-L-I-T-Y Find Out What It Means To Me

Honestly, I think Aretha got it right – stick to seven letters, melodically I think it just works better.

Anyway – in my family I’ve been labeled “you liberal” – the second youngest of eight kids.  Accountability, Responsibility, Discipline and Consequences were not just words, but codes of conduct – drilled into my skull – in The Hall Household, not at all surprising considering my dad is a ’53 West Point grad.  Punishment was a given – or should I say consequences were always delivered.  Spankings were called “reminder taps” – mind the pun – for at times, taps held near dual meaning if you catch my drift.

I typically save controversial or political discussions for funerals, weddings or family renuions because, being usually void of any emotional energy, I find that people are compelled to share their views in rational discourse – no such events planned in my near future so I am forced to share my views in the emptiness of cyberspace.

Is it me or have others noticed – in reading the headlines, blogs and other online sources, I am struck by the lack of consequences and accountability due to poor judgment – a lack of management shakedowns at some of the largest companies that I suggest are at the crux of the housing debacle.

Starting at the top at Bear Sterns, haven’t heard but a blip regarding heads rolling.  No news of foreclosures on Upper East Side Townhomes or penthouses – no sheriff warrants issued in The Hamptons – no learjet repos.  Government bailout – yep.  Significant management changes due to the consequences of poor judgment?  Nope – just talk of a takeover.

Seems that same is true over at Countrywide – more “seasoned” managers have been moved around and the CEO simply retired – B of A put their guy in charge of mortgages.  Plenty of seasoning but little grilling.  Wamu’s shareholders sought accountability and won a majority of votes to remove the chairman and CEO positions – but not a great deal more – in fact senior executives’ bonuses were shielded from the loses attributed to the mortgage-related business.  I Read more

Mortgage Market Week in Review

Is it just me, or do Fridays keep coming around faster and faster? Maybe it’s because I’m so young!

Any way, it’s time for our “Mortgage Market Week in Review.” We’re going to focus on a couple of main topics for today:

Jobs – the ADP report came out on Wednesday and had some relatively positive news. That brought a lot of people in the markets thinking that the jobs report that came out this morning would be a lot more positive than the markets had been expecting. Well, we got to this morning and it came out “moderate.” The market had expected 70,000 losses and we only got 51000 losses. We had expected 5.6% unemployment and we got 5.7%. So, not too bad, but not too good either. However, I’ve read some technical analysis that said that due to some accounting regulations (known as the birth death of businesses adjustments) these numbers are probably overstating things to the positive. That means that next month, these numbers will probably get revised downward.

Losses – talk about missing a target here, wow. General Motors announced that they lost $15 billion this quarter. Think about it, that’s a lot of money. Even if you take out the “one time” expenses, that is still a LOT of money (like maybe $6 billion, I think the number was.) I read today that GM has now “eaten up” all of their profits that they have made since 1985. That means that a profit and loss statement for the last 23 years for General Motors would end up with a big fat $0. In addition to them, Deutsche Bank announce a 64% drop in profits and Merrill Lynch announced some staggeringly negative numbers too.

House prices made a lot of news this week. Alan Greenspan was talking about them and several others also made a lot of noise about what’s happening with house prices. Check out the chart here to give you a good flavor of the regionality of housing prices and how not all areas are seeing the same numbers.

The Housing BillRead more