Category: General (page 16 of 23)

December 23, 2006

The Harm That David Lereah Does

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius, and a lot of courage, to move in the opposite direction. — Albert Einstein

Mike wrote:

If you don’t have a sense of humor, you probably don’t have any sense at all.

Merry Christmas to you and your family, Mr. Shaw.

And to everyone else here.

You see, salutations can be expressed without including a condescending, gratuitous insult; try it sometime.

Fair enough. As you were obviously smart enough to see that the humor line was intended for you (without me saying so) I’m going to attempt to respond to the whole “David Lereah Issue” without (after all, it IS Christmas) making any snide comments towards you (or any of the other people who may share your views). First, I am not “defending” David Lereah. I don’t know him and I have never paid any attention to any specific statement or prediction he has made. I don’t even know how long he has been the chief economist for the NAR. I have no data to suggest that any of his predictions or forecasts are ever accurate and I am not claiming that they are. I will also state that I have read comments from people who have meet him and / or have listened to him speak and from all accounts the reports would indicate that he is a likable person and comes off as well informed and intelligent.

For the purposes of what I want us to look at here, we can think of David Lereah as the equivalent of a stopped clock – at a minimum, he is going to be right twice a day with the correct time. So, if the point is that he is usually wrong – lets just agree, he is almost always wrong. For me, he does not cast a “long shadow”. I don’t think most REALTORS even know who he is, or what he has to say – let alone the general public. I don’t believe that most people who live in the United States give a crap what he or anyone Read more

December 22, 2006

Merry Christmas David Lereah

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

If you don’t have a sense of humor, you probably don’t have any sense at all.

To get things started, here is Lereah as a Dancing Elf. Turn your sound on to get the full effect.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

December 21, 2006

Lereah Must Die! He is a Clown

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Talk is cheap. Supply exceeds Demand. Lereah

Not His Favorite Clown What follows are a few “Economist Jokes”. Not wanting to shock anyone but all of these were written and were being told when David Lereah was still in grade school. Here is a news flash – people who are finding themselves being “victimized” by the pronouncements of an economist have to be looking for ways to be a victim. I’m not defending Lereah, I’ve never bothered to pay any attention to anything he (or any other economist) had to say about anything.

NO major economist accurately predicted, in advance, the phenomenal run up in prices that started two years ago. Every last one of them was asleep at the switch. The switch was turned on and they – along with everyone else – THEN could make pronouncements about it. That is observation of effect, after the fact. That is not “predicting” anything.

____________

Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.

____________
“I’m thinking of leaving my husband,” complained the economist’s wife.

“All he ever does is stand at the end of the bed and tell me how good things are going to be.”

____________
There is also a joke about the last Mayday parade in the Soviet Union. After the tanks and the troops and the planes and the missiles rolled by there came ten men dressed in black.

“Are they Spies?” Asked Gorby?

“They are economists,” replies the KGB director, “imagine the havoc they will wreak when we set them loose on the Americans”

____________
Economists don’t answer to questions others make because they know what the answer is. They answer because they are asked.

____________
The only thing more dangerous than an amateur economist is a professional economist.

____________

Economics is the only field in which two people can get a Nobel Prize for saying exactly the opposite thing.
____________

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.

____________

An Economist is someone who didn’t have enough personality to become an accountant.

____________
Q. What’s the difference between an economist and a befuddled old man with Alzheimer’s?

A. The economist is the one with the calculator.

____________
The last severe Read more

December 21, 2006

Inside The Box – YES, NO and MAYBE

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal. – Henry Ford

In an email, Adam wrote:

Russell-

I never got a chance to thank you for the Star Wars “Duel in the Desert.” I attended the event and very much appreciated your insight and humor. I have been doing Real Estate for over 6 years in CA and AZ. Although I have made over 100k one year, I have struggled through many others. I found this interesting in the sense that you mentioned doing this through the first part of your career (the ups and downs).

Somebody asked you a question and you mentioned to them about not being “all the way in the box.” You then mentioned something along the line of You finally getting this perspective yourself in your career and getting “all the way in the box.”

I want to get all the way in. How is this change made? How do/did you flip that switch? I’ve been waiting for years yet it hasn’t happened.

If this seems like a strange email, it’s because it is! I just valued your advice so much that you gave a couple of months back and thought you might be able to give me more insight.

Thanks,

Adam

The question I was responding to was from a lady asking about sending out postcards but she didn’t want to mail “ordinary” postcards to a farm area or a personal mailing list. She wanted something really unique – something outside the box. As I hear this sort of thing all the time (and recognize it as a destructive idea) I told her that her problem was not that she wasn’t outside the box with her thinking and her postcard program but that she wasn’t IN the box yet. Few agents are suffering from not being “outside the box”. They think they are but their real problem is they haven’t gotten “inside the box” yet.

There are certain fundamentals in any industry, profession or activity. There are correct ways of doing almost anything. The people at the top (of almost any activity) have Read more

December 14, 2006

Anonymous Posters Who Hate Lereah

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

“name” wrote:

Lereah not only lies, he either knows or should have known he is lying, which means that if he is unaware that he is pathologically lying then he belongs in a psychiatric unit.

Point made. I’ll have him committed.

___

“David” wrote:

Lereah is a paid shill of the NAR, not a true economist. He’s never made a “prediction” in his life that would be detrimental to the realtors’ commissions he’s paid to inflate, or his own book sales

Surprisingly, after reading what you wrote, I now also hate Lereah. If an official Hate Lereah Organization (HLO) is ever formed, I sure hope you and I can at least be board members. It is totally understandable to hate all shills and any economist that isn’t “true”, especially if they work for NAR. Thank you for helping me to clear this up.

___

“Mike” wrote:

Please write if you ever get real work.

Excuse me?

My opinion of you just plummeted, Mr. Shaw.

Aw crap! And just when your opinion of me was starting to matter too!

___

“Kaiser Sose” wrote:

Russell, perhaps you don’t remember the dot-com bubble of the late-90’s. Lereah is no different than the biased analysts that were promoting lame stocks by making rediculous assumptions. …. Here’s my prediction… In 2007 over $1 trillion of ARMs reset and many people will be under water. Foreclosures will continue to increase, and this market will probably bottom sometime in 2008 or 2009. I expect to see significant price decreases of around 20% to 30% in the bubble cities like Phoenix, but more modest decreases in other cities. We will likely be in or near a recession in the second half of 2007.

And your prediction Mr. Shaw? Or are you just another blowhard shill without a clue?

I have already conceded the point that Lereah is just no damned good. Period. He is a bastard. But if I am also a shill – what is it that I am shilling? What is it that I seem to be “promoting”? I am leaving the blowhard and having a clue parts alone – as I can’t defend against Read more

December 12, 2006

Why The Fed Matters to Real Estate

by Dan Green

Mortgage Planner

Ben Bernanke Headshot The Federal Open Market Committee meets today and will keep the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 5.250%. It is not what the Fed does, however, that should concern Americans. It’s what the Fed says.

First, a clarification. The Fed Funds Rate is directly tied to Prime rate which impacts lines of credit for businesses and homeowners. Ben Bernanke & Co. do not control mortgage interest rates which are determined by the mortgage-backed securities markets. This is another conversation for another time.

When the Fed adjourns this afternoon, it will issue a press release in which it will discuss the economy and inflation. The statement — not the interest rate — is the news worth watching because inflation can unravel markets and push mortgage rates back to their highest levels of the year.

The chain of events is pretty logical:

If inflation is growing at a faster clip than the Fed wants, it will tell the markets
If it tells the markets, markets will know that the United States Federal Reserve expects the dollar to lose value over time
If the U.S. dollar is expected to lose value over time, the U.S. dollar will be “worth less” to foreign nations
If the U.S. dollar is “worth less” to foreign nations, foreign nations will buy fewer U.S.-denominated securities because the relative returns will be less, too
If foreign nations buy fewer U.S.-denominated securities because the relative returns is less, the demand for mortgage-backed bonds will drop
If the demand for mortgage-backed bonds drop, the price of mortgage-backed bonds will drop
If the price of mortgage-backed bonds drops, the yield of mortgage-backed bonds will increase
If the yield of mortgage-backed bonds increases, then mortgage rates go up for Americans

It’s a long road to get to the conclusion, but this is the manner in which the Fed impacts real estate and mortgage lending. So when your local daily shows the headline “Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged”, don’t think the coast is clear. Read the article and dig a little deeper — it’s not what they did, it’s what they said.

December 11, 2006

Punch and Pie At This Week’s Carnival of Real Estate

by Cathleen Collins

Realtor, Staging Consultant

In my world, I need order, rules. This may be hard to believe when you consider I manage a household that includes thirteen rescue animals and a colony of about a dozen feral cats in our side yard. Ever hear of “herding cats”? This is something I try to effect every single day. I was the one, for example, who asked Greg to modify his open-forum policy on BHB comments, by removing extreme profanity. I understand that trash talk needs to be trashy or it loses its flavor, but sometimes comments on this site go beyond the pale. For a standard of what’s acceptable I like to use South Park. I realize this is a pretty low standard, but IMHO Matt Stone and Trey Parker are so spot on philosophically that I’ve learned to accept the verisimilitude of the vernacular of their eight-year old characters. If Comedy Central is up to it, then I suppose BloodhoundBlog can be, too.

All of this to get to why I would even care to paraphrase a quote from South Park – Bigger, Longer & Uncut. This is a very clever parody on, among other things, Les Miserables. Greg’s teenaged children have demonstrated to us that we’ve garbled the Eric Cartman quote, “people like pie,” but we remembered this quote by implication. There’s a scene in which the boys are trying to figure out how to get people to care about a meeting they’ve called to save the world, and Cartman suggests “more people will come if they think we have punch and pie!” Actually having punch and pie isn’t important… it’s only important that the people think there will be punch and pie, and people like pie (I still believe this must be an actual quote in one of the ten-seasons-worth of episodes), so give them what they want.

And it’s with this in mind, that I commend you to this week’s Carnival of Real Estate, which is up at ActiveRain, for some punch and pie.

More on me and rules… When BloodhoundBlog hosted CoRE this past October, we set up a system for ourselves to judge Read more

December 7, 2006

You Think You Have A Handle On Russell Shaw? Bet You Don’t

by Jeff Brown

Real Estate Investments Broker

You’ve maybe met a ‘mega-producer’ or two. I’ve met my share, and in their own ways they’re all pretty impressive. Russell breaks the mold — no, he smashes the mold.

There are two things you realize after talking with Russ longer than a few minutes. He knows who he is and in what he believes. And he sports a world class mind. The subjects of our conversation were all over the map — then off the map and into another universe. The man has lead a varied life.

His laugh is a reward — and he spends it wisely. Turns out he knows funny better than most. The guy was a stand-up comedian, really. Came ‘this’ close to choosing that for a profession. I’d pay an entire commission to have seen just once how he handled hecklers. Talk about coming to a gunfight with a rubber knife. 🙂

He was on Phoenix radio for a very long time, and you can hear it in his voice. The second you hear him speak you’re jealous. How he ever got rejected on the phone is a mystery. But I also saw what I think he’s about in real estate.

He’s about doing the job, and doing it better than anyone thought possible, and more times than you and I could be persuaded to imagine possible – even for a team. His ultimate production goals have caused me to revisit my own. And I thought mine weren’t exactly burnt toast. He’s not about the money. He’s a gladiator who’s in love with the battle. And ultimately that may prove to be his winning edge. I’ve always embraced that approach — but he’s truly a purist.

On some subjects we were farther apart than Donald Duck and Darth Vader. I’d still rather debate with Russ than agree with most people I know. How many folks can you say that about?

December 7, 2006

Who ARE These Guys?

by Jeff Brown

Real Estate Investments Broker

As you may have already noticed, I took some time to visit with Greg Swann and his way cool lady, Cathleen Collins. As you can see in the picture Greg put in his earlier post on this visit, nobody will ever mistake me for Burt Reynolds. And to his credit, Greg described himself as a ‘Fred Flintstone’ type. Turns out Greg is an honest guy.

I probably had the RCA Dog look on my face most our time together. Seriously, you look at Greg, then at Cathleen, and regardless of his ‘the poet always gets the girl’ mantra, you wonder what happened. 🙂 If I were going to attach a movie title it would be Fred Flinstone Meets Cinderella. Of course, to be fair, folks who know my wife and I might say Bride Of Shrek.
I enjoyed our time together immensely. They’re brilliant, gracious, and humble. Regardless of the $100 words Greg uses when writing, he’s a regular guy who obviously found his princess. But seriously Cathleen, no poetry is that good.

I also had the pleasure of breaking bread with Russell Shaw. But that’s another story entirely.

December 7, 2006

Is Bloodhoundblog The Most Wired In Blog In Real Estate?

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

I got back to my desk late this evening. I had an Inman News Flash email with a time stamp of 10:21 PM announcing the new features on Zillow. Naturally I thought I would pass it along to the Phoenix resident expert on all things Zillow – Greg Swann. The last two times I tried “helping Greg” by passing something along to him I was surprised to find that he already knew about it. This time I thought it might be different as it was about 11 PM and I knew he didn’t have a paid subscription to Inman News. But just to be sure, I went to Bloodhoundblog to catch up first. As you will see below – if you haven’t already, Greg not only knew all about it – he had known all about it for days, and had been interviewed by the folks at Zillow so they could find out what he had to say about it!

Damn! What an amazing group has been assembled here. Good thing none of us suffers from stage fright, as I suspect the spot lights aimed here will only get brighter. On that note, I need to admit several errors on my part. I don’t have all of the correct facts yet, but I received a call last night from my good friend, Marge Lindsay – Bob Wolff had called her. Most of today Bob and I played phone tag and I have not spoken to him yet. Bob is the top selling Re/Max agent whose name I mentioned in my post about Steve Ozonian’s home sale. I believe the specific statements I made which are not true are: his house was not located in Laguna Niguel, there was no dispute regarding commissions – in fact Bob Wolff HAD the listing but later canceled it, and it was not a Coldwell Banker agent who later sold the house. I was also told that Steve Ozonian had sent me an email to let me know about this but I did not receive one from him. I did reply via email to a comment from Read more

December 3, 2006

An Uncivil War

by Kris Berg

Realtor, Associate Broker

(A Bloodhound Blog/San Diego Home Blog simulcast).

Negotiator: one who arranges for or brings about through conference, discussion, and compromise.

Bully: a blustering browbeating person; especially : one habitually cruel to others who are weaker; a hired ruffian.

As agents, so much of our value to our clients stems from our reputation among peers. As listing agents, pre-sale, we market homes, hold open houses and generally get the word out. As agents representing the buyers, we identify and show properties; we make the introduction. When a buyer identifies a property and it is proffer-the-offer time, however, many agents on both sides of the table consider this a call to arms, time to don the pith helmet of negotiation and browbeat their “opponent” in the name of representation.

What many agents forget is that the parties are not the Blue and Gray on opposite ends of a battlefield, but are real people who have everything in common. You have a side that wants to buy and a side that wants to sell, and the agents’ roles are to bring them together through negotiation of a treaty that satisfies all involved. Ardell DellaLoggia spoke to this last summer and, while I suggested then that the negotiating table scene in her Norman Rockwell portrait was the stuff of fantasy, the underlying argument was dead on.

Steve called my attention this week to a full-page ad in San Diego Magazine taken out by a local agent. It begins well enough, “Good deals can be found, but great deals are negotiated.” But here is the first paragraph:

The real estate market has changed. As an exclusive buyer’s agent in San Diego for the past nine years, I’ve witnessed the evolution first-hand. Given the current market, I firmly believe that lowball offers and strong arm tactics with the seller should be expected from a buyer’s agent. If your present agent is uncomfortable with pressuring the seller due to the fact that someone might not like the offer, come to me.

“Strong arm tactics” and “pressuring the seller”? I bet “trash talking” is among his list of services as well. As an aside, our Read more

November 30, 2006

The Millionaire Real Estate Agent

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.

– Isaac Newton

First things first – WOW, what a fantastic collection of writers and contributers this blog has! I came to Blodhoundblog to quickly see what had already been written before I started to write my post. I wound up spending over 90 minutes reading every single post, going to each of the links (thank you SO much, Richard for http://www.psychotactics.com/). I am so pleased with Greg’s decision to change the direction of Bloodhoundblog – and I was already happy before the changes. I may not post everyday but I sure will read it every day.

What follows in this post may seem to some like Earl Nightingale meets Buddha – and maybe it is – but I think you are going to like it.

Last week Matt wrote:

I might have missed something in the post, but to say that all listings for the discounter were $299 is probably not correct. “58 X 299 = $17,342.”I see a lot of “Discounters” using low selling price as a tool to get people in the door, or on phone. $299 is usually a no support price…and then they tack on a-la-carte items to raise that price up. True, it will never be full commission, but I doubt all 58 sold for only $299. How would he still be in business only making $17K per quarter?Russell, How hard was it to get to the level you are at today? Many realtors never get to this level, because it is very, very hard. I would bet that it is a lot easier to throw up a bunch of ads, that say you will sell a home for $299, and get a ton on people in your office. It can’t be that hard…

I don’t know how much selling up occurs at his site. But assume he only sells half of the listings he takes and gets paid on twice as many as he closes and manages to up sell every possible option he has – I still don’t like the numbers. I Read more

November 25, 2006

NAR Got It Right & Greg is Correct Too

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

I stand corrected – what I wrote was wrong. I said,

“Some interesting stats (that NAR should have evaluated but doesn’t dare – as it would look like they favored “traditional brokers” over the current crop of leeches)”

2006 NAR President, Tom Stevens did correctly evaluate that data and NAR did a wonderful job of it too. You can see it all here, in an article by Blanche Evans – who is, by far, the most well informed and relevant estate columnist around.

Greg Swann wrote about the extremely nutty Keith at Housing Panic and I laughed out loud when I read it. Greg – in a different post – wrote about Ace Reporter, Catherine Reagor – protesting her lack of relevant data analysis. He closed that post with:

Why are newspapers dying? How about because they refuse to tell the whole truth…?

I don’t believe that Catherine Reagor is refusing to tell the whole truth – I believe that she can not correctly evaluate relative importances or has an editor who has gone WAY out of his or her way (for years) to always make her look bad. Has she ever written anything that you (“you” here would be anyone reading this) thought, thinking to yourself, “Damn, that was good!”. Compare any random droppings from Blanche Evans to Catherine Reagor’s work and you will notice that Blanche tends to compare statistics so that after you read what she wrote, you are better informed – and now know more about the subject. But the quality of their real estate writing really isn’t true for everyone at the Arizona Republic, I’ve enjoyed reading Bob Golfen’s car columns for years – and even if I didn’t like the car he was writing about, I liked reading what he had to say about it. A couple of really bright and decent people in the editorial area there are Richard de Uriate and Doug MacEachern. Also, I don’t believe that the Arizona Republic would have anything to gain by intentionally withholding “the truth” – about any subject.

Giving any statistic without comparing it to SOMETHING RELEVANT tends to make the statement Read more

November 22, 2006

Trevor Responds and shows he is a nice guy

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Anonymous Coward… Thank you for at least acknowledging that you are one. I have never seen the experience you are referring to take place here at JLSPCR. (I guess I am not even really clear what you are saying, in the first place though.)

Russell Shaw – 1.)Your point about making the MLS public is a great one. I will contemplate that, and rethink my philosophy.2.)I just plain think your wrong about Redfin, and I can’t imagine that we will be coming to a meeting of the minds anytime soon. My thought is this though… I don’t think Paul Allen’s Venture Capitalist Company, Vulcan Capital, would be investing in a company that is criminal or that will be shutting their doors anytime soon. I am taking a risk by applying Redfin… the same kind of risk as people who applied at Google did in 1998.

3.) Thank you for your objectivity regarding discount brokers. I think you are right about Help-U-Sell

Phil –
The reason my business model struggles in a traditional brokerage is because many traditional brokers are ripping agents off, becoming rich of their agents backs. The whole real estate industry needs a shake up, starting with the brokers. You can read my thoughts on this here: http://bluecollaragents.com/wordpress/?p=13

Phew… I think I answered most of the challenges. I think I want to take a break from blogging for a while and eat Turkey. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

1. I totally agree with Trevor with regard to his comments to Anonymous Coward – I always have far more respect for opinions when they are connected to a real name.

2. I HAVE to point out that although I fully understand Trevor’s view’s regarding Paul Allen (because I once thought exactly the same way – if it was backed by Paul Allen I didn’t need to worry) the facts are that Mr. Allen has a track record of wasting HUGE amounts of money by investing in companies that wind up closing their doors once he stops feeding them. His post-Microsoft successes have all come from companies that were already quite prosperous and also had existing competent management teams, Read more

November 20, 2006

Dual Agency Smack-Down, how about sub-agency?

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried. – Sir Winston Churchill

Thank you to Jeff for responding SO well to Greg’s points and issues. I do understand Greg’s points and in a perfect world – almost everything he has to say is just fine. We don’t live in a perfect world and I don’t expect to anytime soon. All of the various arguments about single agency seem analogous to a single agent describing how his service is better than mine because he – and he alone – is going to be the only person to respond to his buyer or seller. When they deal with me it is set up more like an assembly line – with different individuals taking care of each of the different aspects of taking care of the client.

Who is right?

Well if the single agent has only the one customer or client and is willing to devote all of his time to that client, then he is right. I’ll not spend a lot of time pointing out how this is not a viable business model.

If that same agent has just one additional client or customer he now can “have a conflict” concerning his two clients. Say client # 1’s house just got a sign call and there is a buyer who wants to see it right now – and client # 2’s property just had an offer written on it and the other agent wants to present that offer right away. The single agent is only offering single agency to both of those sellers so he does not need to worry about agency conflicts.

Just add one new customer into the mix and there is the potential for conflict. So, why do I bring up SUB AGENCY? Isn’t it the most awful thing to ever have happened in the history of the world? Not really. And you might be surprised at what actually killed the beast – it wasn’t the “single agency issue”. I am blessed to live in Phoenix (for a vast number of reasons) Read more

Category: General (page 16 of 23)

The Harm That David Lereah Does

by Russell Shaw

Merry Christmas David Lereah

by Russell Shaw

Lereah Must Die! He is a Clown

by Russell Shaw

Inside The Box – YES, NO and MAYBE

by Russell Shaw

Anonymous Posters Who Hate Lereah

by Russell Shaw

Why The Fed Matters to Real Estate

by Dan Green

Punch and Pie At This Week’s Carnival of Real Estate

by Cathleen Collins

You Think You Have A Handle On Russell Shaw? Bet You Don’t

by Jeff Brown

Who ARE These Guys?

by Jeff Brown

Is Bloodhoundblog The Most Wired In Blog In Real Estate?

by Russell Shaw

An Uncivil War

by Kris Berg

The Millionaire Real Estate Agent

by Russell Shaw

NAR Got It Right & Greg is Correct Too

by Russell Shaw

Trevor Responds and shows he is a nice guy

by Russell Shaw

Dual Agency Smack-Down, how about sub-agency?

by Russell Shaw

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