There’s always something to howl about.

Category: General (page 12 of 23)

The Magic of Numbers

    

A combination of magic and the truth seems to be where it’s it. In regards to the selling of homes, in this current market, agents are willing to try anything; witchcraft, voodoo, incantations, an appeal to Jesus Christ, and aside from these, more orthodox approaches, including bribery, trickery, flattery, and simple marketing. Having tried some of these methods (of which my conscience would dictate), I have discovered that Russell and Greg are right. In this market, price matters most.

I had begun to view myself as one of those scantily clad women at boxing matches parading with a placard. Instead of “ROUND 2,” my placard read, “A STEAL AT ONLY $739,000!!” Generally speaking, these women are afforded a certain measure of respect, even if only for their outward attributes. I, on the other hand, was being pelted with rotten eggs and tomatoes. This was evident because my “steal” was in fact, not a steal, and at the worst of times, my glorious placard was entirely ignored.

So began the quest for Truth. Having searched diligently, I discovered what others before me had discovered: price will sell anything. An old Floyd Wickman adage goes something like this:

“I can’t sell this house. Nobody will look at it!”

“The price is too high.”

“No, it can’t be that. I comp’d the property every which way. It is priced right.”

“Are people going to see it?”

“Uh. . .no.”

“Then it is priced too high.”

“Nonsense. Maybe I need some new photos. Maybe some more advertising, or an open house.”

“Do you think you could sell it for $100,000?”

“Well, of course! That’d be like giving it away!”

“Then the price is too high.”

I determined to really get to know my market. I needed answers. I began to study and research the hard numbers. How many homes are selling? What is peculiar about these homes. Are they the nicest? Are they the cheapest? Are there agent bonuses? Are there buyer concessions? What I began to learn is that the ones that were selling were, in most cases, both the nicest and the cheapest. If I wanted to sell my homes, I needed to have the nicest Read more

The Weight Loss Process and the Real Estate Market: The Same Animal in a Different Form

Much like the real estate market my life has taken on significant changes over the past two months.  Fortunately, unlike the real estate market, my life has been on the upswing.  A major focus for me has been weight loss, resulting in my dropping nearly 40 pounds in about two months.  As I am not one for long personal stories, the major reason for sharing this is to relate how weight loss and real estate seem to go hand and hand.

The Realization

I am fat.  Plain and simple, one day I realized I was fat.  There were plenty of signs, quite obvious to others, which I chose to ignore: tighter pants, lower energy, the mirror, etc.  Eventually the mountain of evidence reaches a tipping point; a point at which, despite my best efforts, I simply could not ignore the fact that I was no longer the chiseled college athlete of six years ago.  For me, this point was when, on a whim that was clearly not thought out, I decided to weigh myself.  When the scale read 260 pounds and I officially weighed more than my father, it was a sad day.  The day became even sadder when my wife thoughtfully pointed out that the BMI for a person my height (6′ 2″) suggested that I should weigh 190 (thanks, dear).  

The real estate market reached this point about six months to a year ago.  Much like me, the market chose to ignore that fact that real estate prices were increasing much faster than wages.  Additionally, prices continued to increase at break neck speeds assuming the lowest interest rates in history would get even lower.  At the height of market gluttony, people were using homes as personal cash registers, spending as if the money created from nothing, would magically go on forever.  Then one day, the market hit a tipping point.  For the real estate market, my guess would be the subprime market disaster acted as this point.  At this point people begin to wake up and come to their senses.

The Action Plan

Getting back to the fundamentals of eating right and exercising brought me Read more

Ave atque vale: Bidding farewell to Ben

My father-in-law, Ben Collins, passed away Monday afternoon. I’ve been dealing with our work since then while Cathy worked on the preparations for the funeral. Starting this afternoon we’re both tied up for a bit.

I hadn’t intended to write about this, but I also hadn’t intended to cry for the man. He was a warhorse, a giant among men, a champion of every virtue I admire on this earth. I’m very proud to have known him. Even so, I thought I would be practical enough to be phlegmatic about his death. It turns out I was wrong.

This is for Cathy, because she loves it:

And this is for Ben, may he rest in peace:

A Cowboy’s Prayer

by Badger Clark

Oh Lord, I’ve never lived where churches grow.
        I loved creation better as it stood
That day You finished it so long ago
        And looked upon Your work and called it good.
I know that others find You in the light
        That’s sifted down through tinted window panes,
And yet I seem to feel You near tonight
        In this dim, quiet starlight on the plains.

I thank You, Lord, that I am placed so well,
        That You have made my freedom so complete;
That I’m no slave of whistle, clock or bell,
        Nor weak-eyed prisoner of wall and street,
Just let me live my life as I’ve begun
        And give me work that’s open to the sky;
Make me a pardner of the wind and sun,
        And I won’t ask a life that’s soft or high.

Let me be easy on the man that’s down;
        Let me be square and generous with all.
I’m careless sometimes, Lord, when I’m in town,
        But never let ’em say I’m mean or small!
Make me as big and open as the plains,
        As honest as the hawse between my knees,
Clean as the wind that blows behind the rains,
        Free as the hawk that circles down the breeze!

Forgive me, Lord, if sometimes I forget.
        You know about the reasons that are hid.
You understand the things that gall and fret;
        You know me better than my mother did.
Just keep an eye on all that’s done and said
        And right me, sometimes, when I turn aside,
And guide me down the long, dim trail ahead
        That stretches upward Read more

Attorneys, Condescension, Immaculate Perception and the NAR

It’s always dangerous – and not a little misleading – to extrapolate a whole from a part.  One of the problems facing the real estate industry is a phantom stereotype – generally negative – applied to all agents, when anyone in the business knows that the range spans the genius to the inept, the scrupulously honest to the corrupt.  I’d argue high professionalism for most, but in three short years in the business I’ve run into the gamut.

So I understand the pitfalls of where I’m going with this, but I’m going anyway:

Do law schools really have a required Applied Condescension class; and why is it so many attorneys have a self regard inversely proportional to their actual worth?

I admit some of this is anecdotal and personal: the only attorney I’ve ever had to hire I also had to fire; what she’d failed to accomplish in six months I managed on my own in six days. Recommended by a friend, she overpromised, under delivered and grossly overcharged. When I told her on her last billing I wouldn’t pay until she provided an itemization – which she never provided – she tried the intimidation game.  Didn’t work.  Oh, my, it didn’t work.

But much more recently and pertinent: First, there was this – Buying without an agent – written by an attorney at Rain City Guide.  Entirely self serving, badly argued with serious errors of omission, it generated some pleasant acrimony in the comment section – numbering over 150 – as well as a follow up rebuttal.  I’m not going to parse the whole thing, but you get the tone from the last sentence:

Regardless, for hundreds of dollars, you can save 3% on the purchase price, while getting legal services from an attorney, not an agent.

This is just another verse in an emerging chapter:  Save money and get better representation by using an attorney instead of a real estate agent!  Why?  Hey, who cares about home values, sewer scopes, oil tank decommissioning or elevation certs when you have this argument: “I’m an attorney, you’re not!”

The straw came a couple days ago.  I was at a Read more

Does the Real Estate Industry Need Realtors?

Inspired by the glut of controversial posts appearing here lately, I thought I would add one more to the fire. In my recent browsing I stumbled upon a blog that asked a simple question, “Do we need Realtors?” That’s all. That was the whole post. While the questioned seemed relatively simple, the 1000+ (literally) comments made me think a bit harder about this question.

First, let me say that the comments came down on both sides. Many people screamed Yes and No for a variety of reasons, some valid and some simply ludicrous, but the most interesting point that came to my mind was what if someone asked do we need investment bankers? My immediate reaction would be outrage at the attack on my profession. After a bit more consideration, I would ask the more complex question, what has caused that question to be asked? What am I not doing to make my services indispensable to my client?

As an outside observer, I would like to turn this around to suggest what I need and then take a look at how well consumers view realtors meet their needs. Obviously, there will be generalizations here, so if they don’t apply to you, don’t take offense to them.

First, as a consumer I want a realtor to relentlessly try to get me the best deal possible. If I am buying a property, I would like a realtor to help me get the lowest price and if I am selling I would like the opposite. In order to assess this, I need a realtor that knows the market beyond printing out a set of comparable transactions. I would like to know the best blocks to buy and why my house should be valued differently than the house next door.

Realtors fall all over the map in this area; however, on the buyer side they really don’t cut the mustard. To start, the commission structure favors the seller. Most realtors will tout their ethics, but on more than one occasion I have heard and seen realtors take a price that was Read more

Hating Selling through the Art of Sales

The friend of the son of a very good friend — an exceedingly polite young man just out of high school — came by late Friday afternoon to sell me some cutlery. I explained when he called to set the appointment that I was already doing some business with the company he was representing in the form of monogrammed house-warming gifts, but he said he’d like to come by anyway. To practice.

He arrived, carefully unsheathed his samples, and pulled out a three ring binder. He opened his presentation with a hand drawn graph of his progress toward his summer goal; if reached, he said, he would win a scholarship. Then he launched into a rote monologue, cribbed nearly verbatim from his notes. Per the script he handed me each utensil as he talked about it, wasn’t sure what to do with his hands after I refused the third one, and was flustered when I asked about something out of turn. All the sales-guy 101 feints were in play: “If you could choose between one of the two sets today, which would you pick?”; “Just for sitting down with me today, I’m authorized to offer you, for no extra cost, these kitchen shears. Is that something you’d be interested in?”

At which point I stopped him. I’ve sat through thousands of presentations and delivered thousands more. I didn’t need another to confirm what I’ve known forever: I hate sales. And salespeople.

So I waxed parental:

“Why, David, didn’t you ask what I was already using, what about it I liked and didn’t? Turn your head: five feet away is a full set of Wusthof; you should have known that before you came to the door. Why didn’t you ask about the sets I was already buying? Clearly there has been a need.

Selling isn’t about glib one liners, happy hour entertaining or pat answers to pre-conceived objections. It’s considerably less about form than substance. It’s about having the knowledge and developing the trust in order to fill the real needs of your customers, better than anyone else.” LOVE parental mode.

Since this has a lot to Read more

Realtors, Wake Up and Start Helping Consumers

Jeff Brown’s, Real Estate Bloggers — Why Are You Blogging? What Currency Does Your Banker Accept?, has evoke a ton of comments and emotion over the past few days. As an outside observer I find it interesting during these crazy times in the real estate market, people get so worked up over SEO, but don’t seem to carry that same passion over to the market.

While I have no real interest in SEO, I thought I would mention that if (and when) the real estate market tanks, it wont matter how many people are coming to your site if they aren’t able to buy. While the point of Jeff’s article got lost after about the 20th comment, I think that it is really unfortunate. Blogging for business is fine by me, but what about the consumer? There will be a point very soon when consumers will be looking for advice on how to approach and handle a down market. It would seem like everyone’s time would be better spent having these discussions.

I am probably one of the few non-real estate agents writing/reading here, but as a current home shopper, a Realtor could really differentiate themselves by understanding the market and providing helpful advice. In a world where good content is king, I am spending my time reading and understanding where the market is going, so that I can provide readers support as things go from bad to worse.

A major knock on Realtors is the fact that they are always selling, not necessarily with their client’s best interest in mind. The National Association of Realtors makes this perception worse with every rosy real estate forecast they send out to the market in spite of overwhelmingly negative information. Interestingly, two days after I wrote this piece about the NAR forecast, the stock market had the second worse day of the year.

Looking at a variety of the real estate bloggers blogs, who have been commenting here, I have seen very little content on many sites that could really help consumers deal with this changing market. Now Read more

Realtors Will Continue To Sell Houses – Business Goes On.

Some odds and ends here. (now isn’t that a compelling make-you-want-to-read-it opening?) I got a call today from my friend and fellow agent, JoAnn Calloway. She had been getting conflicting information regarding what is likely to happen with interest rates and the immediate possible changes to our marketplace. She was pretty sure I would know what was going to happen next. I don’t like to disappoint, so I want ahead and knew (no major changes to her market due to the sub-prime fallout). After I told her, she wanted to know how I knew. I told her I read BloodhoundBlog. That is how I knew. Yes, there are other posts on other blogs, but I find out about those posts and blogs by reading BloodhoundBlog. In this case, it was just a few posts, this one, this one and this one. Okay, it wasn’t just those posts – it was those posts, in combination with the comments to those posts. For example, when Greg showed the graph in this post and I saw Dan Green’s comments linking to this graph I was able to get a pretty good idea of what was going on as a result of what was being heralded by some as the end of the world as we know it. Long term (over the past five years) rates are slowly moving up. Short term, they are dropping a bit.get a brain morans
Prediction: the world will not end right away. I have seen the future and it is a lot like the past, only longer.

_____

Today, I finally ordered the external microphone for the digital video camera I have had for some time. This is for the coaching / mentoring I have been talking about making available here on BHB. So soon. Very soon, that will start for real.

If you have been waiting for that to get started, here is a little something that you might like. It is scheduled for 1 PM (Phoenix time) on Tuesday the 14th. The call will last less than an hour. For those reading this after the specific event I’m doing, but wanting to know about Read more

Expect a Market Slowdown: A quick thought piece for the more financially minded…

Buyers and sellers should be aware of a general economic slow down in all markets. Everyone will feel the effect of the leverage finance and subprime markets. Since I have been writing about the subprime markets for quite some time, I will focus briefly on the effects of the decline in the leverage finance market.

Leverage finance typically covers loans banks and other financial institutions lend to corporations or large private buyers. Companies like Blackstone use the leverage finance market to buyout companies and REITs. Over the past few years there has been a significant up-tick in Mergers & Acquisitions, leading to strong economic growth. As finance markets close (or shrink significantly) businesses will be less able to get large loans at favorable rates. As buyouts and mergers shrink, expect a dip in the equity markets. Looking at the Dow over the past week bears this out.

Very few people beyond the financial community pay attention to the leverage finance markets. These markets significantly impact the large commercial real estate market. When financing tightens at the top, the price effects trickle down. This could mean a significant negative impact on the commercial real estate market is coming.

All of this will create a drag on the economy, which will serve to slow down most, if not all, real estate markets. Unfortunately this could force even more defaults, putting many real estate markets in quite a tailspin. Buyers with excellent credit that can afford to wait six months to a year to buy will have their pick in most minor markets and increased negotiating leverage in major markets.

Can I Still Get a Mortgage in Today’s Lending Markets? With Cold Hard Cash and Great Credit, Certainly; Otherwise…

On Friday, August 3rd American Home Mortgage officially closed its doors. That same week Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook on Bear Stearns from stable to negative amid fears of firm wide exposure to subprime lending and the leverage finance market. If all that were not bad enough, the leveraged financed market has essentially shut down. The questions on everyone’s mind are: What is next, how will this affect the housing market, and will loans be available in the near future?

To start on a positive note, yes, there will be plenty of loans available in the near future. Unfortunately these loans will only be available to borrowers with good to excellent credit, who have a reasonable down payment (5-10%). Mortgage lenders and banks have gone beyond scared to downright petrified because they can only see the tip of the iceberg. For the readers out there who are not familiar with icebergs, typically everything above the surface (what one could see) represents 10% of the total mass of the iceberg.

Continuing with that analogy, most analysts expect this situation to get significantly worse before it gets better. While Bear Stearns and American Home Mortgage have been the latest news whipping boy, the market has quietly downgraded many (if not all) banks and mortgage lenders. Furthermore, banks know exactly what they are holding, whether they admit it or not. To soften the final blow, expect them to raise rates, charge higher fees, and tighten their approval process. Even though many financial institutions are being very hush-hush about how much of the bag they are holding, they are diligently working to limit any future exposure.

For a borrower that means anything outside of plain vanilla conforming loans will be very hard to come by. But we here at Bloodhound would be remiss if we only gave readers the gloom and doom story. Despite all of this, here are some suggestions that might help ease some of the burden for those currently looking for financing.

Get a GREAT Mortgage Broker

While this could be my Bloodhound tag line, this is the time where it will pay dividends. Many lenders Read more

Thank You Governor Napolitano – Sam Wercinski Is the Best Commisioner Ever!

Sam Wercinski is the Commissioner of the Arizona Department of Real Estate. He was appointed by Governor Janet Napolitano to this post in January. I first started hearing good things about Sam by early February. Based on what I had heard I was already predisposed to liking him before I even met him. I had never liked the commissioner who immediately preceded him, as she was the worst kind of petty bureaucrat and mostly disrespectful of all Realtors. To be candid, Sam wouldn’t have needed to do much to beat her in the likability department.

Commish_Photo_SmallI had posted this on BloodHoundBlog a few months ago, telling about an event June 21st, where he would speak and later there would be a top producer panel. There was a buffet lunch and just as I was finishing my sandwich Sam and his entourage arrived. Every single person who worked for him was “there”; which is to say they were, each one, intelligent, articulate and – more importantly, in my opinion – was a genuinely nice person. But when I met him what I witnessed was a truly likable, charismatic and energetic leader. In just a few short months he has dramatically changed the very nature of the department. He has reached out and gotten help and input (real help along with real input) from the Realtor community. The ADRE now has their emphasis on regulating only those licensees that actually need “regulating”. No matter what group of Realtors I am talking to, whenever the subject of the department or the commissioner comes up and I say how impressed I am, the response is typically a knowing nod, “yes, I saw that in him too”.

I have been meaning to post a “Thank You” to Sam ever since I met him at St. Barnabas in June. Instead HE SENT ME A THANK YOU! Correct. A government official meets me and then takes the time to handwrite a note telling me what a pleasure it was to meet me. Too good to be true? I speculated right after meeting him that he plans on doing the most Read more

Real Estate Investing vs. Stock Market Investing- Is there a Clear Winner?

Real estate enthusiasts have been sounding their trumpet during the latest run in the real estate market. Many real estate focused investors truly believe real estate outperforms every other investment by a wide margin and even go as far as to wonder why investors would choose any other investment vehicle. Our own Jeff Brown even took quite a swing at the stock market in his post, My 4% will Beat Your 10 Any Day — Stocks vs. Real Estate. In the other corner stock market aficionados contend that in the long run stock market returns dominate. As an investor in both I am here to definitively say neither dominates.

Starting with the facts: Long run real estate investment returns average about 3%. This is simply a year over year long run appreciation average (cnn.com report data), while the average long run stock market return hovers around 10%. It is important to note that anyone can point to specific year, or even five year, period that one asset class has outperformed the other. This is not relevant because long term investing is the focus of this discussion.

Many stock market champions simply stop their analysis right there. That is wrong, plain and simple. Of course, as the analysis goes deeper, the water gets muddier and muddier. The starting point is leverage. Very few investors pay 100% of the purchase price when they buy an investment property. At most an investor will put the standard 20% down in a direct commercial real estate investment. This means that an investor could buy 5 times value of an investment. For example, if an investor has $100,000 to invest, they could buy $100,000 worth of stocks or $500,000 worth of real estate. Using some simple math, after 1 year the stocks would be worth $110,000, while the real estate investment would be worth $115,000 ($100,000 + $500,000 x .03).

Unfortunately many real estate investors stop their analysis here. This is also incorrect. Not only is it unfair to compare a leveraged real estate investment to an investment in the stock market that is not leveraged, but there are a Read more

In Down Markets Realtors on Both Sides of the Transaction Need to Step Up for Their Clients

As the real estate market begins its tailspin, home buyers and sellers alike need to figure out how to play the real estate game. The time has passed for simply taking the lowest cost provider of real estate services. Realtors on both sides of the transaction must now prove their worth. In a down market, which many buyers and sellers now face, market knowledge and savvy negotiating skills champion the day.

The Sell Side

The most obvious need for good representation is on the sell side of real estate transactions. Realtors, who simply look at the MLS and price a home at the market average, will become serious liabilities to their clients. There is nothing worse for a seller than trailing a market decline.

When listing a home, there should not be a time where sellers are forced to reduce their price. This suggests either the seller had their sights set too high or that the real estate agent in charge of the listing was out of touch with the market. Regardless of the situation, every month a home stays on the market cost the seller pays holding costs. This could be additional mortgage payments, lower market demand, or simply the hassle of postponing moving plans.

Furthermore, in a declining market a faster sell means experiencing less of a price decline and a higher long run purchase price. When my wife and I wanted to exit our Detroit properties, we looked at the market and priced our house about 2.5% below the market average. This strategy was important because our house looked better than the market average. Initially, it looked like we could have gotten more, but it was clear that the market was declining fast. Even with our reduced price, our home languished on the market for almost two months. Luckily, we were able to get very close to our asking price when our first (and only) offer came in.

The flip side of that story is the numerous houses that stayed on the market for years! This is no exaggeration. There were houses that were still on the market a full two years Read more

A Real Estate Recovery in Early 2008, Don’t Be So Sure…

Chicken Little made the famous quote, “The sky is falling, the sky is falling.” Would he have been more believable if he had said the sky is falling, but I expect it to ease down slowly and rebound early in 2008? This is exactly what many real estate professionals have been doing for the past six months.

Here are just a couple examples:

Bob Toll of Toll Brothers, one of the nation’s largest home builders reports to CNN,

I don’t see the market getting better until, at the earliest, April of 2008. But I do think that when a recovery occurs, it will be much quicker than it has in the past because of pent-up demand. You’ve got decent job growth, low unemployment, low interest rates, great corporate earnings reports and tons of money being created and sloshing around the world.

Why April? Why 2008? Since Bob Toll, like myself is a Cornell graduate, I have to give him the benefit of the doubt. I will assume he has concrete data for this projection, but I really have to wonder if he is looking at the big picture. Access to capital has reversed course significantly and has now become a major stumbling block for many would be home buyers. Additionally, Congress is considering adding more rules and regulation to the banking arena, which will inevitably make lending tougher. On the other side of the equation, supply is hitting an all time high. Not only have many of the home builders over built, but adding foreclosures, and longer than average time on the market for regular stock really makes the picture look grim for sellers. It will be very hard for this equation to right itself in less than a year.

Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, writes at Bloomberg.com,

We’ll hit bottom in 2007 in terms of sales, but we’ll continue to see price declines into 2008. Prices tend to weaken for about six months after inventory normalizes, and we probably won’t see that begin to happen until the end of this year.

While Richard shows a bit more pessimism than Toll, he too Read more