There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Enduring Interest (page 7 of 10)

Redfin.com’s Real Estate Consumer’s Bill of Rights: A wolf in sheepskin clothing . . .

I am a hardliner on the subject of reform in the real estate industry. Over the last nine months, I have written at great length about, among other things, the skill-set required to survive in the future of full-service real estate, empowering buyers, dual agency, how the NAR makes war on the free enterprise system, divorcing the buyer’s agent’s compensation from the listing agent’s fee, rebuilding the MLS without the co-brokerage fee, eliminating the IRS safe-harbor for real estate brokers to induce them to take responsibility for managing head-count, and getting rid of real estate licensing laws — or at least the broker’s level of licensing — to promote better competition among agents and better due diligence among consumers in hiring agents. There’s all that, plus much, much more.

Why am I going through my bona fides as a reformer? Because I am about to denounce a failed, flawed, fractured, false reform that is to be proposed today by Redfin.com. At first blush, this “Real Estate Consumer’s Bill of Rights” sounds like a good thing — and it easily could have been a good thing. Instead, it uses a treacly moral suasion and calls for new legislation to ram the corrupt Redfin style of doing business down everyone’s throats.

Start at the beginning. Yesterday, Kris Berg, Ardell DellaLoggia, Kevin Boer and I had this email from Redfin.com CEO Glenn Kelman:

Hope you’re having a good weekend. We wanted to let you know, under embargo until tomorrow at 9 a.m. (or whenever Inman goes live with the news), that we’re launching a program on Monday called the consumer bill of rights.

It doesn’t argue the issue of commission rates; we don’t consider it our business what others charge. It mostly focuses on simple reforms that would ensure that consumers get complete and open access to information about properties and the process of buying or selling properties.

The reason we’re asking you guys about it is that we want other brokers to support these rights. This is something constructive and positive, not antagonizing and negative — which itself is a result of coaching you’ve given us.
Read more

BAD LOANS: Buried In The Back Of The BreadBox

Let me tell you a story about how the subprime mortgage market collapsed and millions of baby boomers had to accept less money in retirement. If you liked the Da Vinci Code, you’re gonna love this one. It’s not wrapped up in sex, or murder, or corruption, just good-old fashioned “pass the buck” and “what the little guy doesn’t know won’t hurt him” attitudes.

WARNING: If you are prone to believe conspiracy theories, you are going to curse, kick the cat, and be extremely pissed off after you finish reading this.

Here is the dirty little secret of the mortgage securitization boom of the last 5-10 years: The little guy gets stung with the losses.

First, a little history lesson. It’s kind of boring but stick with me here. Mortgage backed securities (MBS) were originally the old Ginnie Mae pass-through certificates. The VA or FHA packaged up their loans and sold them through Wall Street to little old ladies who wanted to “juice up the yield” on their portfolio. They were safe because they were backed by a government agency. They yielded more than treasuries because they were a conglomeration of various mortgages. The money was loaned at, oh… 14% (remember the early 80’s ?) and the investors received, say…12%. It was a good deal because the little old lady could only get 9% on Certificates of Deposit. The difference was spread among loan servicers, Wall Street, and even the gub-a-mint agency by employing this securitization tactic.

The problem was that loan principal was returned, along with the interest, on the old Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Little old ladies didn’t care because they weren’t going to live long enough to spend all of their money (these were 30 year issues). However, Wall Street had problems selling these deals in bulk to institutions because of the prepayment features.

An ambitious mail-room clerk named Lew Ranieri worked at Salomon Brothers and saw an opportunity in the mid 80s. Salomon Brothers was hiring rocket scientists to create a new breed of mortgage-backed security, a collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO), designed to more accurately predict the prepayment speed of the mortgages backing Read more

Why The Traditional Real Estate Model Is Fading Away

Kris Berg and Brian Brady inspired me to add my eye witness experience to the subject of the traditional real estate company business model. Their recent posts on the subject were excellent as usual.

I’ve seen real estate from the inside since 1967. I was able to follow the owner of the most successful agency in San Diego at will. He answered any question I ever asked as fully and candidly as he could. It was an amazing learning experience for a teenager. Four straight years this guy closed more than 1,000 sides a year. And he did it with a maximum of 28 full timers and usually less than a dozen part timers.

If he did that now, he’d be making over $15Mil a year in gross commissions before paying his team. Oh yeah, his team. This broker never made less than 40% on any transaction. If you as one of his agents listed a home exclusively you were paid 20% of the listing side of the deal. If you sold the property you made 40% of the selling side. Back in those days a large minority of the listings weren’t exclusive right. Many were either open listings or what we called ‘agency’ listings back then. Opens only received 10% of the listing side, exclusive agency listings got 15%.

This meant that much of the time this broker made 45-50% of the gross commission. Today an average agent at a ‘commission split’ office makes 70-80% of the office’s commission. And the so called top producers are paid 90%. Is it a mystery that the desk rental model came into being? At least if they could hire enough bodies the broker/owners could, by sheer numbers, turn a profit. In some cities I’ve seen operations using this ‘desk rental’ model that employed literally hundreds of agents.

Just how the large firms clinging to the traditional model stay in business is a mystery to me. They’re operating with even higher expenses per square foot than brokers did 30 years ago, and getting a much smaller slice of the pie to boot. For awhile they stalled Read more

Is the Subprime Mortgage Market the next Enron?

An excerpt from one of my recent posts on The Active Rain Real Estate Network:

The sub-prime mortgage market is falling apart. Wall Street firms are being stung by the bad sub-prime loans they bought and have demanded that the sub-prime lenders buy those loans back. The sub-prime lenders didn’t have the money to do so. Those Wall Street firms simply swapped the debt for ownership in the firms. Once the camel got his nose underneath the tent, he didn’t like what he saw.

The sub-prime mortgage market is completely tightening its lending standards. The wholesale account executives, once compensated like a proven reliever for the Padres, are applying for night gigs as bartenders to supplement their income. The words “stated income” are becoming more politically incorrect than a racial slur. The NEW AND IMPROVED sub-prime lender will emerge as the prostitute who found God.

Here were some excerpts from some of the comments:

From Mikey:

Right now the lending standards are just taking out 100% subprime financing. Watching the rate sheets, low LTV stated deals are still plentiful. I think hard money can be a profitable niche, but it will remain a niche. The other thing limiting its growth potential is just the slowdown in real estate market in general.

From my buddy, Jeff Belonger in New Jersey:

Brian… some good points. But sub prime will always be there, in my opinion. I remember when it started hitting the streets hard back in 1994-’95. The strong will survive…
… But there will still be those few sub prime lenders that have been positioning themselves the last 2 years, not taking every piece of crap. Names like Equi First and Decision One will be around and they still have good products that Wall Street will invest in. Why? Because of their performance records and lack of loans that go into default

More importantly. Some of the e-mails I received today:

From a colleague in the Midwest:

Hey, do you know of something going on at New Century? Rumors are flying right now…

Unsolicited e-mail from my post:

i’m an account executive for a major subprime lender. i am seeing fear and panic in Read more

If there is no Realtor monopoly — then what explains the commission structure?

Even though I asked people to humor me, I have been getting a lot of comments on the issue of monopoly.

Brian Brady mentions: “I think you’re losing me a bit Michael. How are 3 million licensees in a nation of 300 million a monopoly?”

The issue is how 3 million people are managing to keep the price stable. It’s hard enough for 3 people to collude, let alone three million, which makes this pricing phenomenon even more surprising. The issue here is with the National Association of Realtors and their practices. The Justice Department has stepped in because of this reason. Much like Microsoft and Windows, the NAR has employed many practices (some fair, others not so fair) to keep outside competition from competing for their services. The articles I linked to addressed this specifically.

Norm Fisher writes: “Suggesting that Realtors have a monopoly on real estate is like saying that accountants have a monopoly on accounting, or car dealers have a monopoly on cars.”

This is not quite the case. The market for selling personal vehicles is very active. There is no barrier to entry for me or anyone working against me when I try to sell my car to another person or even the dealer, who creates a very active market by buying these goods for no fee. Additionally, accounting fees are by no means fixed. I can go to H&R Block and get my taxes done for $19.95 or I can go to a private account and pay $200. The difference between all of these things is choice.

Brian Brady mentions: “You can list your home and have it entered into the MLS for $299 nowadays. Redfin, Zip Realty, Help U sell, iPayOne, et al have been offering a consumer discount real estate brokerage for over 30 years.”

Greg also mentions the variety of pricing. The issue is that the NAR is working to pass legislation preventing Realtors from working with these services. I agree there are more options, but the disagreement comes in the access that people who pursue these Read more

It’s Time To Take The Lead — Let’s Turn The Lights On Now

Growing up I remember the almost genteel civility practiced by my grandparents and their generation. Topics that today would more likely than not incite harsh tones and words, were discussed, even debated without rancor or a mean spirit. I handle myself with their model in mind. Sometimes my calm demeanor based upon rational thought triggers those who aren’t happy without either drama or the spotlight, to turn up the heat.

When this happens ‘in person’ I’m almost always successful in steering the conversation to calmer waters, or to its end. If it’s a phone conversation, I still succeed at that more than not, but less than face to face.

Anonymity in my experience can tell much about a person’s character. I was raised the old fashioned way. In our family you were just as likely to be scolded or given a quick swat on the butt by your aunt as you were your mom. We were taught that the true test of character is what you do when nobody’s watching. Of course with five ministers in the family, we all pretty much believed we were never really unobserved. πŸ™‚ We behaved — even without witnesses. The lesson? Good character isn’t good only when the camera is on.

Which brings us to blogs. I’ll be brief and to the point.

Anonymity breeds false courage in some. They use this ability to become invisible to say things in print they’d never dream of in person. Most of them in real life have been dealt significant disappointments, mostly in real estate apparently. They fancy themselves as Lone Rangers fighting the good fight, fearlessly lobbing grenades at people whose good character allow them to write their thoughts (posts) in a public forum — and sign them with their real names. Their blogs not only identify who they are, but generally have an ‘about’ page which goes into more depth. In other words bloggers as a group, at least in real estate, are pretty transparent. Many even have their pictures on their blog’s home page. Character, pure and simple.

I’ve tried Grandma’s approach. Treat bullies and cowards Read more

Disintermediation? Not For Me. Not Yet.

I hated my last REALTOR?. Well, hate is a strong word. I don’t really know him well enough to hate him. But I’m sure if the sale had taken just one week longer, I would have known him just long enough to wish him all manner of ill will. I KNOW I hated the work he did. I hated even more the work he didn’t do. The story of my last home sale is a rant all in itself. (Yes, ARDELL, I will write about it one day.) But that day is not today.

Remember, I’m not a REALTOR? or a real estate agent. And before I got into the business I’m in now, I could NOT have told you the difference. I freely admit that I don’t know 1/100th of what the other writers on this blog know about real estate or title or lending. I probably know more than your average consumer, at least you’d hope so, but I’m still a consumer.

I just finished reading some of the writing on this blog and others about disintermediation. Greg Swann’s “Disintermediaton where? Oh, yeah…” set me on a bit of a reading tear. Thanks, Greg. Just when I thought I’d get to bed early.

Given how bad my last transaction was, you’d think I’d be the first to jump at the opportunity to sell my house on my own without the use of a “middleman” and use all the latest available technology to let me do that. You know, seller connecting directly with buyer. You’d be wrong.

Of course I’d be tempted. In many moments of passion, I’ve even said out loud that I would. But if I needed to sell my house tomorrow, I’d still call one of the extremely good REALTORS? or real estate agents I’ve met in the last three years and I’d have them do it for me. Why? Because I don’t know how to sell real estate? No. I would be willing to bet all the equity in the house that I could get as many buyers to visit my home as just about any real estate professionals I Read more

Podcast with Russell Shaw, Part One: “Be cause over it rather than effect of it”

This is the first of three podcasts we have made with mega-producing Realtor and BloodhoundBlog contributor Russell Shaw. Cathleen and I talked with Russell for around four hours, recording about two hours and forty minutes of that conversation. This particular segment starts with a discussion of Russell’s real estate career and ends with Russell discussing an effective goal setting strategy. He cites the film The Secret as an aid to understanding the issues.

Why Russell Shaw? Because he sells 400 houses a year — and plans to sell 2,000 houses a year. We all of us spend so much time looking for hi-tech magic bullets that we lose sight of the fact that real estate sales is face-to-face, belly-to-belly, door-to-door. Russell is nobody’s Luddite, but he is very proudly a champion of shoe-leather real estate. I think he has a lot more to teach us than pre-IPO poindexters who have never actually sold a house.

As a warning, Russell has a salty tongue. Children and people with delicate sensibilities are duly advised.

The Russell Shaw podcasts: Parts I, II and III

Lessons Learned While Watching American Idol

Teresa Boardman helped me understand why I sit through all of the excruciatingly bad performances on the first few episodes of American Idol.

My wife and I watch American Idol religiously. It’s one of our guilty pleasures. I know we’re probably going to hell for it, but we’re obviously not alone in our sin. We’ll have some company. The ratings for the Idol are ridiculous. The premiere episode drew 37.4 million viewers last week, a 15.8 rating/36 share in the adults 18-49 demo. The second night was just as big for Fox. But if you’re a saint and don’t watch American Idol, then you have no point of reference for what I’m about to say. So, I’ll explain briefly.

The first episodes feature a laughable string of truly pathetic “performers” trying to make it big in an industry that they are clearly NOT cut out for. Some of the performances are so hideous I literally have to cover my eyes. I want to watch, but it’s just too painful. At one point this evening, my wife said to me, “No! Uncover your eyes. This one is dancing.” OK? No! See, this isn’t “So You Think You Can Dance.”

This is American Idol. It’s a singing competition. If you have to dance, then you probably can’t sing. In fact, if you have to dance, you probably can’t dance either. This is proven over and over again in the first few episodes, before the chosen few “make it to Hollywood.” And one thing is fact – if you have to tell me how great you are… you aren’t.

I don’t watch these first few episodes of American Idol because I like watching people make complete fools of themselves on national television. While I admit there is that morbid fascination, the real joy comes from being able to guess, purely from their self-styled introductions, if a performer is going to be a singer that truly has that special something that distinguishes those who really belong in Hollywood from those who can only tell me that they should be.

Now, here’s where Teresa Boardman comes in. Teresa invited me Read more

The Right Time to Buy: An Investor Perspective

As we considered when to restart Cook Squared Enterprises, one question we had to ask ourselves was if it was the right time to buy. With interest rates creeping up and home values creeping down, is now the time to make a large purchase? Additionally, in my spare time I dabble in a little econometrics. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the term, it is essentially taking a lot of past factors and trying to predict something in the future. In this case, I look at past real estate value indicators and trying to predict future trends in real estate. For those of you who think this is getting ready to get technical, don’t worry, it is definitely not (sorry to those of you who thought it was). I only do this to see if there are clear markets I should avoid, markets like Las Vegas and Florida that have shown obvious signs of over building and over investing.

Back to the topic at hand, when should you enter the market? First and foremost, it is always a great time to start investing. There is always value in the market, though some times it is harder to find that value than other times. There is always a house or building that has not been taken care of properly, with motivated sellers. These are great properties to buy, just about anytime. More importantly, the real estate market is cyclical. Predicting cycles can some times be like predicting the weather. Since many of the greatest economists cannot seem to do either, it is not worth trying to jump in at the trough and get out at the peak. If anyone tells you differently, ask them if they have any swamp land they can sell you as well.

Buy and hold investors almost always make money because of the nature of real estate price increases. Even if you get in at a peak and hold, real estate typically comes back to bail the hold investor out. Established investors who only work in certain markets have even more of an advantage because they have seen Read more

Digital real estate photography: Which photographer? Which camera?

The current issue of The Specialist, the official magazine of The Council of Residential Specialists, insists that “99 percent of home buyers say that photos are the most helpful feature on a Realtor’s web site.” I’m pretty much convinced that 47% of all statistics are made up on the spot, but I suppose that recalcitrant one percent is visually impaired or something.

In any case, I have two things to say about photography:

First, Karl Hoelscher is starting a real estate photography business in North Phoenix, and he would love to have some help honing his marketing message. Give him a look at HomeSnapz.com. Even if you use your own photos for your web pages, super-hi-resolution professional photography can work wonders for your printed pieces and MLS listings.

Second, the article I mentioned in The Specialist is a wonderful example of really bad advice. As we talked about in BloodhoundBlog months ago, the two most important features in a camera to be used for everyday real estate work are a wide-angle lens and a fairly small image size:

Except for print reproduction, the best size for a real estate photo is 640 x 480 pixels — which is 0.3 megapixels. Ideally, your everyday camera should be able to produce that size image without post-processing. The photos on your web pages can be bigger than this, but not by much. If you try to load 20 images on a page, with each image weighing in at one megabyte or more, you’ll overtax most web browsers — well after you’ve overtaxed the patience of your audience.

What you want from a lens is not a long zoom but the widest possible angle. Most digital cameras have their widest angle setting at 45 – 55mm, if the lens were on a 35mm film-camera equivalent. A few cameras get down to 38mm. This is inadequate. What you want is 28mm or less — with reservations.

The features camera-makers advertise, megapixels and zoom lenses, are mostly useless for taking photos of homes.

So what does The Specialist suggest you buy? Cameras with long zoom lenses and massively megapixelated images — just exactly the Read more

NAR & DOJ – Russ & Russell Part 2

Russ Cofano responded:

Russell,

I appreciate the opportunity to chat with you on this subject.

First, my comments should not be taken to mean that I support the DOJ’s position and hope that they win. Nor do I necessarily support the NAR position with its rulemaking. As I have said before, I do support innovation and think that brokers need to spend more time finding new ways to deliver value to consumers.

Second, let’s define a couple of terms.

“Broker” means any person or firm that has been licensed as a real estate broker under applicable state law.

“Traditional Broker” means a Broker who either directly or through agents, actually assists buyers and seller with buying or selling a home.

Third, this is a VERY long post and I apologize in advance as I usually don’t like posts of this length. Proceed with caution and a good cup of coffee…. )

Regarding the definition of MLS Participant, you said:

“And that is the most logical definition possible under the circumstances. It is important to keep in mind what the MLS actually IS – a communication system set up by brokers for offering and accepting offers of compensation…..to fail to define a real estate broker (the only people ever originally intended to have access to the MLS) any other way than someone who is actively working with buyers and sellers makes no sense.”

Here is the problem from the DOJ’s perspective. Before this rule change, a licensed Broker could join the MLS and open up a store front with no intent of helping a seller sell or a buyer buy. They could call it “Referral Realty” and have full access to the MLS database for purposes of cultivating potential buyers to refer on to “traditional” brokers in exchange for a referral fee. This is allowed by most state license laws. In fact, this type of situation occurs today in some areas where retiring licensee hang their licenses with a Broker in hopes of leveraging their referral base despite having no intent to actually assist a buyer or seller. The problem with this business model is that the referral business Read more

The Plastic Pig (and How to Pick Your Agent)

A million years ago, my mother won the office football pool. It was a Pick the Winners contest, and she did it with a plastic pig. Now, keep in mind that this is the same woman that found herself relegated to her bed for a week after losing the rubber match of “Who Can Jump Over the Most Boxes in the Backyard” to my then 14-year-old brother. Evel Knievel she wasn’t.

Anyway, she had this hysterically funny wind-up pig that, when activated, would spin furiously on its base, squealing all the while. Her scientific winner-picking method, the envy of any Vegas sports book, involved circling the team name which resided in the ultimate landing vector of the pig’s tail. When she collected the booty this particular weekend, a guy at the office replied in disgust, “I can’t believe I was beat by a plastic pig”.

Certain events of the past week have led me to believe that too many people are relying on the plastic pig method in selecting their real estate agent. Now, an agent plays many roles, but marketing and exposure of your home is first and foremost. Without an interested buyer and without an offer, an agent’s professed superiority in negotiations and contract management will be meaningless and in fact go untested. The listings without photos or well-written text, the agent voice mail messages declaring that “all calls received after 5:00 PM will be returned the next business day” (or on the Autumnal Equinox, whichever occurs last), the show instructions which involve 24-hour notice, a silent prayer to the East and the winning lotto ticket are all things I have encountered. All, unfortunately, serve only to keep agents and their buyers away.

My latest reminder that all agents are not deserving of the listings with which they have been entrusted came in the form of a phone call from a frustrated shopper. Three messages to the agent’s number in the ad and 48 hours later, she was still trying to make an appointment to see a property. Ultimately, she pulled my number off of another sign in the neighborhood in a Read more

NAR & DOJ – Russ & Russell Part 1

Russ Cofano responded:

Hi Russell,

Happy to add some background here. You ask, “But aren’t the “anti-competitive policies” basically who has the right to decide how and where listings will be displayed?”

Kinda.

The initial DOJ complaint against NAR revolved around NAR’s initial Virtual Office Website (VOW) policy that allowed brokers to selectively “opt-out” by not allowing certain brokers to display their listings online. This would have allowed a “traditional” broker the right to effectively hand pick the firms that they don’t want to compete with online by eliminating any chance for them to have inventory to show to prospective buyers. From the DOJ’s perspective, the problem was that the under these same MLS rules, that same broker could not prohibit a particular “bricks and mortar” company from showing listings to a buyer who walked in off the street. The distinction being online vs. offline. NAR then amended the VOW rule and replaced it with the new Internet Listing Display (ILD) policy which changed the selective “opt-out” to a blanket “opt-out”. In other words, the broker could not selectively pick which brokers could display their listings online. Either everyone or nobody. Since the ILD policy applies across the board, NAR felt that it eliminated the anti-competitive concerns of the initial VOW policy.At or about the same time, NAR changed its definition of “MLS Participant”. The new rule defines an MLS Participant as a broker who makes offers of compensation to and accepts such offers from other brokers. Prior to the change, an MLS Participant had only to be capable of making and accepting offers of compensation.

This last issue is, I believe, the REAL issue in this case. NAR wants to define who can have access to and display listing information online as brokers who are actively working with buyers and sellers and sharing commissions via the MLS. DOJ believes this is too restrictive and that any licensed broker should be able to have such access. DOJ believes that such restrictions will stifle innovative brokers from assisting consumers in non-traditional ways.

Let’s face it. Most MLSs are powerful entities when it comes to aggregation of Read more

Real estate in Deadwood: How Fremont Street in Las Vegas became a ghost town . . .

My mother gives us money for Christmas every year. This year we used the lucre to buy seasons one and two of Deadwood, the acclaimed HBO television series about gold-mining, lawlessness and profanetasizing — a condition afflicting screen writers, who pretend to affect to believe that people in the past were even worse potty-mouths than they are. In any case, the show is filled with dubious real estate deals, just the thing to keep us entertained as we wait for the next purple outburst.

Here’s an example: In the first few episodes, laconic hero Seth Bullock and his more loquacious partner Sol Star rent a lot for their hardware store from Al Swearengen — pimp, faro hustler, saloon keeper and curator and conservator of the Deadwood Hall of Fame of Outrageous Profanity.

What’s the rent? Twenty dollars. A day.

Deadwood is growing fast, and the bloom is barely off the boom. This is a seller’s market such as we have never seen. So when Bullock and Star offer to pay $1,000 to buy the lot free and clear, in fee simple — what should Swearengen do?

It’s worth $600 a month in rent. Potentially, it’s worth $7,200 a year. Why would Swearengen sell it at all? Why wouldn’t he lease it to the hardware store? They can improve it all they want, but those improvements and the underlying dirt would revert to his control when the lease terminated.

Better yet, why not write a participation lease? The hardware store planned to sell much-needed equipment to the prospective prospectors arriving by the dozens in Deadwood every day. Why wouldn’t Swearengen want to cut himself into a piece of that action, in exchange for surrendering for a term the right of possession to his lot?

If we stipulate that a gold rush is a short-term phenomenon, this would have been Swearengen’s optimal strategy for maximizing his own profit from the lot.

But what happens when a short-term windfall turns into a long-term travesty?

Last week I wrote about two multi-billion dollar multi-use projects being built on Las Vegas Boulevard — “The Strip.” Kirk Kerkorian’s MGM-Mirage will spend $7 billion to build Read more