There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Disintermediation (page 8 of 43)

My Treat

Every so often, Mona and I attend to a close friend’s First Grader while the single mother does her required corporate traveling gig for one of the remaining Fortunate 100 oligopolies. During these few time warped days each month I am thrust into grandfatherly duties which I find to be almost Dali-esque as I, at age 52, can still recall a good portion of my own first school years with vivid, if not shocking clarity–at least the surreal parts; unlike my youngest sister who refers to her similar childhood in the same household as ‘those blacked-out years.’ (And yes, to this day, we both refuse formal therapy, and meds, my sis and I.) Melting timepieces, I’m telling you.

I have nieces, too, who visit Chicago once a year—one teen (demure and traditional) and one pre-teen (iconoclastic from her very first breath). Both lovely, if not opposite in all but genetic ways. I have one daughter (history teacher) who is now 30 and lives out of state and one step-son (a sommeliere) who is 25 who lives in another world. There are some neighborhood kids, of course… and that’s pretty much it. Most of the other unattached people I hang with have already lost most of the hair they will ever lose and, for some consistent reason, are long term participants in one type of 12 Step Program or another–their respective youths totally exhausted; sucked dry to the bone, long ago and far, far away. In other words, I just may lack the experience needed for these incremental domestic duties I’m called upon to perform on occasion. I’m too soft a touch and frankly, don’t have the energy to exert discipline anymore. Just don’t burn down the house or torture the dog. Easy on the cat, too. Pretty expansive boundries, I would think, even for someone as indifferent and mortally aware as myself. But for some odd reason, I think of children as living on forever.

“Uncle Geno, can I have another candy bar?”

“Sure. I don’t care.”

“Can I play with your iPhone?”

“Sure. Just don’t drop it in the toilet.”

“Can I run off with Read more

Mouth to Mouth Capitulation

My favorite homeless guy, a poor weather worn soul named Johnnie, has been hawking the morning Tribune at the corner of Hollywood and Broadway ever since I moved to Chicago in the mid-1990s. Idling at the stoplight, awaiting my green arrow signal into the rush hour flow of Lake Shore Drive, I’ll usually just hand him a dollar through the window and let him keep my inky copy of pulp to sell to someone else although I suspect he probably just buys whiskey with the windfall. I wonder how much booze a handful of change and a few crumpled bills can buy a guy so down on his luck these days? Whatever the answer, Johnnie doesn’t care to hide the sad fact that he’s a practicing alcoholic–not from me, at least. Not from anybody, really, with a sense of smell, or sight, or society.

“Got anything extra today, boss?” he’ll sometimes ask in one way or another. This makes me uncomfortable for a couple reasons, not the least of which being how lousy a boss I really was when I actually held such a title. That, of course, and the fact that the mere greenback I just handed him isn’t what it used to be. “Trying to get a bottle of Four Roses for later.” He lives for ‘the later,’ this guy. (As if Johnnie is somehow certain that both ‘the here and now’ the rest of us choose to pursue is any less elusive or any more fulfilling.)

“The Dow closed down over 500 points yesterday…” or “That billionaire’s airplane was found in California…” or “Obama kicked McCain’s ass again last night in the debates…” he’ll feel inclined to report to me, repeating the headlines since, like I said, I rarely take my full dollar’s worth of newsprint in exchange. He wants to give me a little something extra for my buck although he’s quick to add, “The Euro is kicking the Dollar’s ass all over the global markets.” Hint, hint. He stands there outside my car window either shivering or sweating depending on Read more

I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For

I have been thinking alot lately about RE Web 2.0, particularly in light of the recent news regarding Redfin and Zillow’s current layoffs.  Greg also recently posted regarding the current state of the Realty.bots.

“Indeed. We have seen the future of real estate marketing — and it is us.*”

I am not entirely convinced it has to be all us.

I am a process guy.  Prior to delving into the real estate business, I developed sales and marketing strategies for technology firms – many of which targeted supply chain solutions.  When I approach a process, I try to focus on the inherent value a particular set of activities delivers.

Perhaps the double edged sword in the real estate industry is that we are all independent contractors – we approach our businesses in differing ways.  On one hand, we have the ability to run our businesses in a way that capitalizes on our strengths.  Some of us use a consistent process to bring a deal together, some of us don’t.  I suggest that many consumers approach the purchase and sale of real estate apprehensively.  Many simply don’t know what the correct process is for purchasing or selling a property and they look to a professional to provide the knowledge and expertise to consistently deliver a successful closing.  Unfortunately, not all agents are created equal, therefore mileage varies – alot.

I believe that the myth to the core of the business of buying and selling property lies within the MLS.  This process is not all about the data.  While the data is key, it certainly does not provide a consistent process for facilitating a transaction – there is a natural progression to a transaction.

Up to this point, if not the most successful, at the least the most recognized RE Web 2.0 search solutions have focused their solutions surrounding the myth of the real estate transaction – it is all about the data.  Again, the data is important, however, it is only part of the process.

My frustration with the current search solutions is that it does not address the natural progression of the real estate transaction.  While extremely powerful, Read more

No layoffs at Trulia: The San Francisco treat is still hiring

CNET:

Real-estate sites had some tough times last week. First, Redfin, an online brokerage for residential real estate, announced that it was laying off 20 percent of its staff, then Zillow, a service that delivers home values and lists sales, announced that it was forced to lay off 25 percent of its workforce.

But Trulia, which lets buyers find homes for sale across the United States, says it has no layoff plans and that it has enjoyed so much growth, it’s actually looking to expand.

“We are not making any layoffs. All companies need to be smart in this environment and adjust to the market movements,” Pete Flint, CEO and co-founder of Trulia, said in an interview. “As a company, we are in a strong position. We always believed that we had to be aggressive but fiscally responsible, and that is why we are in the position we are (in) today. In fact, we are still making a few select hires, where they are important to our revenue growth.”

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Hurry up and wait

Wake up at 11:00AM. Drink a pot of coffee. Smoke a half pack of cigs. Do nothing for the rest of the day. This is my Will.

My Reality, per contra, dictates otherwise. Wake up at 5:55AM to the clanging of the Metra train bells across the street. (I don’t know how but at least 20 people a year find a way to get run over by a commuter train in this city, thus…the clanging bells at every turn and at all hours of the sleep cycle.) One medium cup of half decaf because my doctor is a cruel and unusual man. Smoke nothing because I kicked the actual habit years ago (although mentally, I’m still a two pack a day guy). Do nothing for the rest of the day.

And by doing nothing I mean waiting around in my real estate uniform, ‘tapping my last season’s Pradas’ (Legally Blonde), waiting for all my short sale deals to get final bank approval and inch along to the next stage of amortized gestation. Actually, I only have two of these nightmares recurring right now but they are so big and the characters involved so vivid, it feels like I have ten. Both deals are mid-seven figure offers and either can come unglued with the first hint of a strong Lake Michigan squall. I keep reaching for a smoke but like I said…

I consider the sellers in these scenarios, both developers. I ponder how, not so long ago, they were prospering in the ponzi schemes of their countless construction draws only to find themselves now languishing under a landfill of recycled paper debt, cheering my clients (the buyers) along from beneath, handcuffed and shackled to whatever is left of their decomposing credit ratings. I make a mental note to inform both of my parties that the traditional Builders Warranty probably isn’t worth the bad paper its written on. They will probably both want to lower their offers. Again. He who cares least wins. Hey, ‘leave the gun, take the cannoli.’ (G-father)

I go to bed early as there is nothing left to do but wait. Read more

Tom Johnson to the Realty.bots: All that free stuff you gave us would have been a bargain at twice the price!

In a comment at the Future of Real Estate Marketing, our friend Tom Johnson delivers a fatherly lecture on the facts of life:

This is the free market and unintended consequences at work. There is a reason that the commission rates have been stuck for years where they are. The contingency nature of the listing relationship drives the business. The consumer is unwilling to pay for service that does not result in a sale.

Pouring VC cash into the real estate space has improved technology. The RE.net came on the scene with plans to disintermediate the real estate brokers by tapping into the commission honey pot. This put pressure on commissions forcing brokers to cut costs, so the RE.net responded by giving the services away for free. Free outbound doesn’t earn a return inbound. The cash burn continues, brokers continue to cut costs by not buying RE.net products causing more cash burn and layoffs.

As transactions slow, the commission honeypot shrinks. Brokers will cut cost and redouble efforts to get salable listings, by using the free tools that are provided by RE.net.

It seems to me that the RE.net did indeed disintermediate, but it was not the RE brokers that were disintermediated, but the print media. So here we are, marketing listings for free on the web. Because of the fractured nature of the RE space, it takes unimaginable amounts of time to manage all that free stuff, so we are where we were. The consumer is still unwilling to pay cash for RE services on a non-contingency basis. So, we tweet and blog and facespace our listings, to get a transaction started, and then the real work begins-getting the contract to the closing table. That is the part of this industry that the RE.net sort of forgot about and the cash burn continues…

Indeed. We have seen the future of real estate marketing — and it is us.*

As might be obvious, I don’t have a lot of time for other RE.net sites right now, but it is worthwhile to note that tFoREM has four whole posts this week, a huge number by comparison to recent Read more

Citing market downturn, Redfin.com cuts headcount by twenty heads

Via intrepid startup blogger John Cook from his new weblog Where are John and Todd?:

Redfin today said it is cutting 20 percent of its staff as the Seattle online real estate broker prepares for what Chief Executive Glenn Kelman described as a “big dip.”

About 20 employees were let go, bringing total staff at the company to about 75 people.

Kelman said it was a difficult decision, but the right move given how the economic slow down is impacting the residential real estate market.

“Redfin’s whole business will struggle and fight and may yet fail,” Kelman wrote in a message to employees. “But the only way it is possible for us to succeed – and, even today, I believe we will – is if we adapt.”

In an interview, Kelman said that the company had been performing well up until about three weeks ago. Last month, he said executives even felt strong enough about the business to raise revenue projections for next year.

But once the economic meltdown hit Wall Street, Kelman said “deals started to fall apart.” And while October and November may still prove to be solid months at Redfin, Kelman said beyond that the outlook is dismal.

“As the stock market wiped out prospective down-payments, tours and offers dropped 30 percent,” said Kelman in his message to employees. “Transactions that were done came undone.”

More from CEO Glenn Kelman at Redfin’s weblog:

Today Redfin laid off roughly 20% of our employees.

Unlike other startups, our industry’s recession started a year ago, when home prices first plunged.

Since then, we’ve fought like starving animals, and with some success: while industry-wide transaction volumes dropped 33%, we grew revenues by nearly 50%. Traffic grew more than 300%.

Even a month ago, we were raising 2009 revenue projections. All our markets, now including Chicago, contributed profits.

But the past few weeks have seen a major reversal. As the stock market wiped out prospective down-payments, tours and offers dropped 30%. Transactions that were done came undone. October will still be pretty good, then we’re headed for a big dip.

Hence the layoff. Layoffs are painful for any company, but especially for a startup and especially, I Read more

The Life

I know a guy who makes stupid money. He doesn’t even call it money. He calls it trump.

“I make sick trump,” he once told me. (Stupid money.)

“I have a Hot Mess at home,” he continued. “And she’s sick, too.” (An attractive girlfriend with a drinking problem.)

“It’s ill.” (Troubling.)

According to this guy, a derivatives trader at the Chicago Merc, if you don’t make 30/40 (million per year) you’re not a Whale. (A sick big spender with a lot of trump and at least one Hot Mess at at least one sick home.)

“30/40 is the magic number. You can buy all the whores in Sin City with that kind of trump.” (Duh. Even I figured that and I don’t really have a head for math.)

Not surprisingly, he met his own Hot Mess at the Paris Las Vegas. They were doing ice block Southern Comfort shots (don’t ask) together at a Whale’s private party and decided to hook up for the near, if not immediate, domestic future. He shipped her and her Two Brats back east to Chicago. This guy trades farm futures so I would imagine he knew what he was getting into. Although not risk aversive, he has assured me on more than one occasion that he is not yet a Whale. He’s more than a Chump certainly, but definitely not a Whale.

A Chump is a million dollar a year guy. You are either a Chump, a Whale, or Bank in his world (The Life). Bank trumps Whale. Then Chump. Everyone else is Home Depot. Wonderful.

“No offense,” he tells me, “but the average Joe Home Depot in this country is living paycheck to paycheck. They couldn’t care less when the market goes apeshit. (Apeshit means apeshit. Think about it.) They squawk like they do care but they got no real skin in the game. Bullshit 401K pennies maybe. They got no trump. Joe Home Depot can always find another Home Depot with matching funds to bag nails and pay the bills. A Chump, however, is ruined in an apeshit scenario. The Life is over for him. I know Read more

Zillow.com creates a directory of real estate agents who can’t sell

Okay here’s the good news: You have another opportunity to garner a do-follow link from Zillow.com.

And here’s the bad news: For that link to do you any good, your best bet is to be a really bad listing agent. The more listings you can accumulate on Zillow.com — which implies listings that don’t sell — the higher your ranking among your peers.

Yikes!

Or: Too frolicking stoopid…

Zillow’s Professional Directory is new as of this night, so — who knows? — maybe it will get better. In the neighborhoods we understand, it’s an exceptionally valuable glimpse into the world of lister dysfunction: Who can’t sell how much real estate how slowly? If you want to know for sure who cannot sell the greatest quantity of real properties over the longest spans of time, Zillow.com has the answer.

It gets worse: The “Top Zillow All-Stars” are, for the most part, bubbleheads. Everything is measured by contributions, where what Einstein does and a cat-box deposit are equally “contributions” — equally additions to Zillow.com’s great big cat-box of crap.

This is wicked-dumb, far dumber than the usual agent-rating schemes. Where those other “tools” can be gamed, Zillow’s system is based on measuring, first, a meaningless metric, and, second, by actually rewarding incompetence. Quantity not only is not quality, the number of listings a Realtor is carrying is very often a negative indicator — a symptom not of quality performance but of its absence.

Even acknowledging this, measuring velocity of turnover would not improve things, particularly since this is a metric that could be gamed. And even adding in true — meaning verified — list price to sales price ratios might not be enough. Readers here can correct me if they think I’m wrong, but I don’t think there is any reliable, objective way to rank Realtors by quality of performance.

And that’s as may be. It remains that graduating them by their inability to move product is inarguably a terrible way to rank real estate agents. The Professional Directory is a truly amazingly tone-deaf addition to Zillow.com.

As you might have deduced by my absence from these environs, I am very, very Read more

With its new iPhone application, Trulia.com is taking on-line real estate search to the streets

This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link). There is a fuller review of this new technology here.

 
With its new iPhone application, Trulia.com is taking on-line real estate search to the streets

So who is winning the Realty.bot race, Trulia.com or Zillow.com? Your guess is as good as anyone’s, but this week marks a decisive change in the game: Trulia just released an iPhone application.

Trulia Mobile will offer a limited set of location-based searches from Apple’s iPhone, from an array of other smartphones and from Dash Navigation GPS devices. The user-experience will differ by device, but the design premise is based on location-sensitivity: Your iPhone always knows where you are, so it can interact with Trulia’s file servers to show you a list of nearby listings or open houses. You can get a detailed summary for each home on your list, and you can then email the listing to a friend, contact the listing agent directly or map the home so that you can hop over for a quick peek.

It’s hard to argue with the design premise: If people are going to go out house-hunting on their own, whether they are really looking for a house or simply touring open houses for decorating ideas, why not use the location-sensing power of modern electronics to hook them into Trulia’s listings database?

The ability to contact the listing agent plausibly increases the likelihood of dual agency transactions, but the fact of life is that many, many people are at least starting their home search without the advice of a buyer’s agent.

But here’s the bonus that popped out at me when I heard about Trulia’s iPhone application: Listing agents who want to compete for mobile-empowered buyers need to get their listings into Trulia and they need to keep their open house schedules up to date. I like anything that makes listers more diligent in their duties to their clients.

The iPhone application is slick and useful as written, this because “data is the new Intel-inside” and Trulia has a rich store of data to draw upon. The usual caveats about opt-in versus Read more

Zillow.com: The “REconometrics” Firm of the Future?

Have you been watching Zillow.com lately, in the press? They’ve done a nice job at selling the mainstream media that they are the “real estate statistics” firm of choice. With the introduction of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, they are aggregating real-time live quotes and are positioned to trump other media sites for accurate mortgage rates reporting.

I”ve admitted that I’m a Zillow-phile. As a mortgage wonk, I love the data they gather and the reports they publish. I read Spencer Raskoff’s Active Rain Blog, weekly. I’m constantly comparing my terms offerings to the realistic quotes on ZMM (I’m a few hundred bucks more expensive but a helluva lot cheaper than the average quote-ask me why sometime). Their Zestimates are getting more accurate as they rewrite their algorithms and gather more market data. As a reporting service, Zillow could and should take the national lead.

Lately, I’m starting to see Zillow try to emerge as an advisory firm of sorts which is fascinating to me. I’m not speculating here, watch what’s happening:

I started reading Spencer’s blog with this post about trading commissions; I realized that we had a common background and that we probably speak the same language. This recommendation confirmed that thought.

This was the first time I saw Zillow offering its data as analysis, by Zillow economist Stan Humphries. Then, Spencer Raskoff suggested that Zillow would have prevented the rampant speculation, from 2004-6. Interviews on Bloomberg, radio shows, and CNBC, all “reporting” about the rapid decline, with really cool granular data. Most recently, I spotted Spencer on Bloomberg, reporting about the decline and offering his prognostication about the market. Today, Spencer took a well-deserved pot shot at the NAR economists.

Silly Active Rain chatter? I think not. It’s my opinion that Zillow.com is fashioning itself as the econometrics firm for real estate, I call it “REconometerics” just to give it a name. Where will they take that “new” product? They can:

  • Publish the data, like a newspaper, as interesting content for readers,so that Zillow can sell more ads.
  • They can Read more

Understanding RE Web 2.0 – btw Where are my meds?

Lately I have an overwhelming feeling that I have schizophrenia – to those who know me well, they simply ask why it took me so long to figure it out.

What happened to the days when searching for a home doubled as a work out?  Lugging around 25 lbs MLS catalogues – flipping thru the black and white property snapshots – it was clean – it was simply – it was – well – leisurely.

You know – with the advent of new technology – evolving from Web 1.0 to Web 2.0, the amount of choices and technological advancements in developing online communities and data analysis has my mind spinning – so many choices

  • how do I use these new solutions?
  • How will my clients benefit?
  • How will I benefit?
  • Which ones should I invest in?
  • Which functionality provides the best return?

As I discover new sites and options, I can’t seem to keep up with the “older” ones.

So – I decided to try and put it all together.  So here I am – at homethinking, on my computer, trying to assemble my thoughts – Trulia wondering what this all about – I mean, in general, I feel I am a realseekr of knowledge – where data’s concerned, I am good at Krunching the numbers.  But the mind map of the Web 2.0 space has really Motovoated me to look at how this fits together.

Personively, I want my clients with BiggerPockets to see the benefits while I become a SmarterAgent.  That way we all win.  Ok – so let’s Zolve this problem.

So – I’ve found some of the sites to be useful.  I actually have found some great clients using some of these sites.  But still – the list is Vast.  Bottomline – clients are still seeking help – they view me as their HomeGuru.  Let’s face it – for the client seeking a new home, they generally still need to walk thru the Frontdoor of a prospective property to know whether or not it’s a fit.

I will admit, I used to think Hoodeo these people think they are, having to walk UpMyStreet, up and down EveryBlock, insisting on Read more

Clash of the Titans: Women shriek and children cower in blood-spattered suburban enclaves — when Realty.bots collide…

There’s news and then there’s news. Consider:

A real estate industry study released today shows that most popular consumer real estate search engines, including Trulia, Zillow, Google and Yahoo!, offer home seekers only a small fraction of the homes actually available on the market — and that many of the listings are inaccurate or out of date. Real estate searches on these popular sites in three sample markets — Miami, Dallas and San Diego — failed to provide users with as much as 92 percent of available listings in their home searches.

“Holy cow!” you might think. “The mainstream media is writing something actually factual about the defects of venture-capital-funded Realty.bots! No puff, no fluff, just the straight dope!”

Contain yourself. This is not news. Like most “news,” it’s a regurgitated press release. “Cui bono?” “Who benefits?”

The study, commissioned by Roost.com and conducted by the WAV Group, points out the stark contrasts between different online property search methods available today and concluded that the most accurate source of listing information is the local Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The WAV Group specifically researched how popular consumer real estate search sites including Trulia, Google and Yahoo!, among others — which aggregate listings from a variety of third-party sources — stack up to sites like Roost.com, which are enabled by the MLS. The MLS is the real estate industry standard database for sharing information on local homes for sale and is available only to licensed real estate agents and brokers; all the listings on the MLS are derived from local agents and brokers. To serve the needs of agents wishing to make MLS property search available to consumers, MLS boards nationwide have deployed a standard called Internet Data Exchange, or IDX.

This again is obvious, of course, so it’s perfectly understandable that mainstream media mavens seem not to know it. But it’s completely self-serving on Roost’s part. The actual news in this “news” would be:

Trulia/Zillow available everywhere (even on your phone), Roost unknown to founders’ mothers

But when would you ever expect to find news in the newspapers?

In fact, in the cities where it operates, Redfin.com has the most Read more

With a new iPhone application and support for other mobile devices, Trulia.com is pushing the Realty.bot race into the cloud, but its new free weblogging platform may put ActiveRain under a cloud

Who’s winning the Realty.bot race, Trulia or Zillow? There is a constant flurry of new press releases from the two companies, but their boastful claims often sound like a pair of garrulous amputees agreeing with each other that the two-legged world is off its rocker: “Five million visitors! Ha-ha!” “A hundred thousand new listings! So there!”

Does any of this mean anything? There are wonderfully useful metrics for judging net.behavior. Unique visitors, for example. Pageviews per visit. Time on site. Even better: ROI per visit. But these measures are not independently verifiable, and the guides we do have available to us are inherently suspect.

So who is winning the Realty.bot race, Trulia or Zillow? Neither company has gone IPO. Neither company has gone belly-up. Beyond that, your guess is as good as anyone’s.

But: Tonight marks a decisive change in the game: Truila.com is releasing a fairly robust iPhone application as a part of a site-wide upgrade.

What’s new?

  1. Trulia Mobile will offer a limited set of location-based searches from Apple’s iPhone, from an array of Lightpole-enabled smartphones and from Dash Navigation GPS devices. The user-experience will differ by device, but the design premise is based on location-sensitivity: Your iPhone always knows where you are, so it can interact with Trulia’s file servers to show you a list of nearby listings or open houses. You can get a detailed summary for each home on your list, and you can then email the listing to a friend, contact the listing agent directly or map the home so that you can hop over for a quick peek.
  2. Trulia is adding a higher degree of user participation in the form of a new, free weblogging platform. Any registered user of the site will be able to start a blog.
  3. Finally, Trulia is offering greater personalization of the user experience in the form of a self-customizing home page. Your home page will reflect “new property listings, home prices changes, upcoming open houses, median sales price trends, recently sold properties,” all of these based on your past search history, along with “relevant blogs and Q&As from our Trulia Voices Community.”

In truth, personalization might Read more