There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Disintermediation (page 40 of 43)

Want innovation in real estate? Get rid of the Brokers . . .

The trouble with cops is that they make you feel safe when you’re not. Instead of attending to your own security on your own dime, you expect Officer Vengeance to swoop in and save you, like Batman with a beer-belly. Never happens, but we never stop insisting that it can, that it will, that it must!

I think the real estate laws tend to work the same way. In reality, every minimum standard becomes the de facto maximum standard — and the minimum standard in real estate is outrageously low. Yet consumers are convinced that licensing and license enforcement are sufficient protections — Captain America with a clipboard — for the biggest asset they own.

This is a mistake, and, arguably, it is also the root cause of all the problems affecting the real estate industry. The NAR campaigned state-by-state for licensing laws not to protect the consumer but to protect its own membership from “unfair” competition. The NAR is a cartel in the sense that real estate licensing laws exist to limit competition, thus to sustain artificially high prices. In naked essence, the laws consumers think are protecting them exist to fleece them instead. This is true of every sort of commercial regulation — and this is why regulation is sought by the established firms in a particular line of business in the first place.

An obvious first place for the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to start, in attempting to fix what ails the real estate industry, would be to deregulate everything. If Chester the Barber wants to tape pocket listings to the mirror behind his chair, let him. If Sellsius° wants to do more than advertise other people’s listings, let them. Caveat emptor, of course, but let the buyer beware in full cognizance that due diligence and care are all the protection an emptor or venditor can ever have in any commercial transaction. The courts might make you whole after you are injured, but your beer-bellied Batman is always scarfing donuts when you need him the most.

But: This won’t happen. Real estate licensing requires so little training that Read more

What is NOT broken in real-life real estate?

Continuing from a comment from Ardell:

You live in a world where everyone pretty much HAS to be a Realtor to sell residential real estate, as I did for most of my career.

That may be true right now, I don’t know for sure. I know there are non-NAR members who have access to ARMLS, but I don’t know that any of them are also real estate licensees. My expectation, about which more below, is that the AAR would cave at once if a non-NAR-member licensee applied for full access to ARMLS — if they raised any objection at all.

I have nothing against Realtors at all. I do have something against buyers not having the right to a basic conversation about compensation the same as sellers.

But of course they do have this right. The conversation might not go very far with most agents, but we advertise the idea at the top of our home page.

I do have a something against buyers being “procured” for the benefit of the seller.

I do, too, but buyers have to be willing to bring complaints when they are abused. Nothing cures bad behavior like seven-figure judgments for agency violations.

I do have something against an organization who has not taken a stand on this issue to the benefit of the buyer consumer, and who still feels the seller pays the fee after all these years.

The NAR is sclerotic. This is not news. The important point is that there is no obstacle to individual practitioners and brokers doing better.

Here’s an example: We had an Article 16 complaint earlier this year. In the neighborhoods we farm, we broadcast our announcements — open house invitations, sold cards, etc. This work is done by independent contractors of a subcontractor, and both because training is difficult to effect and because I did not want to experience errors of discretion, I interpreted Article 16.2 in the broadest possible terms: They were to skip only houses with “No Soliciting” or “No Trespassing” signs. They had no knowledge of the MLS, and they should not make any presumption about the presence or absence of real estate marketing Read more

What is broken in real-life real estate?

In comments to a post at Rain City Guide, new agent Seattle Eric wrestles with Lady Ardell over what is and is not broken in real estate representation.

Ardell offers an amazingly detailed list, at which I can only marvel. I’ve had run-ins with less-than-perfect agents, but my common experience is the opposite — very thoughtful, experienced, conscientious people. I’ve heard a lot of stories about bad agents, but I almost always assume that stories improve with age, with retelling and with the transfer of retelling rights from the original raconteur to who knows how many raconteurs-by-proxy. We are not liars, as a species, just very good storytellers.

(Even so, bad agent stories are a good education. Love is hard but hate is easy. Most of your clients will love you if you do nothing they hate, and bad agent stories are how they tell you what they hate.)

My beef with other Realtors has to do with their being lazy and complacent, rather than their being corrupt or stupid. Much of what I write about here consists of marketing ideas we are pioneering. You could argue that we are arming our own competition, but I know we are not. As good as the ideas we deploy are, no one in my market is copying them. That’s all you have to do by the time we’re done — monkey-see, monkey-do — but the agents are too lazy, too cheap or too clueless to jump on an intellectual bandwagon they exerted not one thought to create in the first place. Dinosaur is always on the lunch menu.

In the same respect, I am appalled by how how inept, technically, many Realtors are. Jim Cronin at The Real Estate Tomato had a wonderful riff on how stupid e-Pro is — and people at ActiveRain argued with him about it. We live at the far right edge of this Bell Curve, but my assumption, always, is that agents I’ll end up working with will be very far to the left side.

In general, I think agents do way too much of what Ardell argues they no longer do enough Read more

Confronting the consequences of our privileged status . . .


NAR Board of Directors, 1909

Point:

As it stands right now, MLS systems and data exist purely for Realtors and members. The public is more of an afterthought. This will continue to be true, unless people start to stand up and say, “I WANT MY MLS!”

Counterpoint:

Some may say that [David Barry’s] goal is not ethics or reform, but destroying the NAR and the privately-owned MLS’s so companies that do not share these goals, or, in some cases, even actively participate in the buying and selling of real estate, can use the privately held data (listings) for their own benefit and profit.

Those two arguments shoot across each other’s bow, but much of this debate does. Truly, the whole mess was started in 1908. It seems unlikely that it will be resolved by 2008.

I have much more to say about this…

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There is a case to be made for experience . . .

This bit from RedFin (tipped by FoREM) reads to me like a dual agency lawsuit waiting to happen.

Why?

Because RedFin is paying an extra incentive for its buyer clients to purchase a home from its seller client before the seller’s home is MLS-listed. RedFin would surely argue that no agency has been created, but in fact what they have is a pocket listing — an exclusive — and they are representing the seller as soon as they seller decides they are. I’m not crazy about the idea of implied agency, but that’s almost certainly the way the gavel will drop if this comes before a judge.

What would be the seller’s beef? By inducing him to sell without putting his home to the full test of the marketplace, by means of an MLS listing, RedFin may be cheating him of proceeds his home might have earned for him. An exclusive listing sold in-house stinks to high heaven — and if it smells bad to a jury, it doesn’t matter how it smells to anyone else.

Say what you will about Help-U-Sell, Assist-2-Sell and all the other limited-service brokerages, at least they have experience in the real estate business…

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Zillow.com versus the truth: Why it matters . . .

This was in a comment, but I’m pulling it out because I think it’s important:

A Zestimate cannot be “off” or “on”. It cannot be accurate or inaccurate. What is being evaluated is not a house but statistics and documents about that house. As I have demonstrated, the Zestimated house may not even be there. The results can have a greater or lesser correspondence to reality — which attribute is equally true of astrology — but a Zestimate is not a statement about reality. This issue is not whether or not the Zestimate is more or less correspondent to reality. The issue is whether it is wise to substitute calculations based upon statistics and documents about a house for an actual, objective, on-site evaluation of that house. This is a determination an informed party — such as a mortgage lender — can make at his own peril. To induce ordinary haphazardly-informed consumers to do so strikes me as being fraudulent.

Why does it matter? From another comment:

Here are some good ol’ boys in Texas who are using Zillow.com to milk the rubes. They’re responsible for their own behavior, of course, but who made it possible?

The fact is, this scheme is only possible because Zillow.com has represented itself as an authoritative source when the principals of the company know that is untrue. The people running this game can gull the public because the public comes to them having been pre-gulled by Zillow.com.

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Conjurers confounded: Reality is what it is . . .

Joel Burslem:

If enough people believe their Zestimate to be true (consumers, journalists, realtors, whomever) – then reality really can be altered. It just shows how malleable the wisdom of the crowds really is.

Oh, good grief… Consciousness does not cause reality.

The meta-topic is interesting, however, first because it highlights one of the more pernicious aspects of Web 2.0, the idea of collective wisdom, and second because it brings out one of the better features of Web 2.0, the ferocious pursuit of canonical truth.

In the first case, the social web is largely harmless, even if its epistemology is absurd. The nonsense Joel Burslem is citing would be dangerous — and assuming that he is not actually joking — if it actually came to pass, but this seems hugely unlikely. One of the subterranean tenets of Post-Modernism is the subtly communicated dictum that nothing matters until it does. David Letterman does not chuckle when you back into his car. The owners of Zillow.com will not buy or sell real property on the basis of their own dubious Zestimates. In any real-life real estate transaction, if one party loves the Zestimate, then the other necessarily hates it. If people labor in error, in Wikipedia or elsewhere, it is because they believe the marginal cost of improving their knowledge of reality exceeds the marginal benefit of having done so — which calculation may itself be in error.

So what falls out? It is possible that people directly involved in real estate transactions may decide that the cost of pursuing a better alternative to Zillow exceeds the benefit. This seems doubtful to me, but we can stipulate the point for the sake of the argument. Even so, their doing so will not have “altered” reality. Zillow will still and always be unable to report the most important fact about the structure — is it still there? — at the time of the Zestimation. To agree to decide something by a means that is known to be fundamentally defective but which is nevertheless mutually-acceptable to the parties is not metaphysically dispositive, despite the fabulist hyperbole we hear everywhere. The Read more

And this is the Zillow-killer . . .

Right there in the Realtor’s remarks section of the listing is the conversation-stopper, the quill-puller, the objection-obliterator:

The stately home you’ve always dreamed of with a completely unzillowable view…

That’s a mean meme, mama. If it spreads, the deal is utterly undone. The concept focuses the mind, and the word calls forth the concept. The coin Sellsius&176; has struck enriches us all…

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What good is Zillow.com?

This, possibly, which is just as useful and just as suspect as Dr. Jay Butler’s undocumented statistics. We arrive at the level of actuarial science, at best, which is what an automated valuation method is. An actuary can tell you the anticipated death rate of a specific sub-population. He cannot predict the day and hour of your death. Zillow.com knows almost nothing of importance about particular houses, so it can tell you almost nothing of importance about those particular houses.

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Ten more bricks in the wall . . .

I write a lot about disintermediation, but it’s not a front-burner issue in our business. Not yet, anyway. We know that much of what we sell, as a business, is the convenience of being able to dump the real estate problem on us. I’ll say to clients, in jest, “If you can make more money doing my job than you can doing your own job, you don’t make enough to work with me.” In fact, I’ll work with anyone — for no compensation in some cases. But I know that the future of our business is in working with people who would consider it an absurd waste of time and money to do anything more than supervise the sale or purchase of a home. Presumably you can save money doing your own dry-cleaning, too…

So if we don’t worry about the disintermediators, who do we worry about?

Other full-service Realtors, of course.

Cathy came up with the idea of encapsulating our Unique Selling Proposition in a list of ten benefits other Realtors cannot match. We started with a list of 21 things, which I mixed, merged and matched to get to ten. This is policy, summarized in an animated GIF that appears near the top of our home page. We do a lot more than ten things for our clients, of course, but these ten are selected because they will make our competitors sputter, stutter and choke. Better still, we’ll be still better at all of these things before the Realtors we compete against get even close to where we are now.

Today Seth Godin has a post on using ‘another brick in the wall’ to take business away from competitors. Something like this works only if people care about substantive quality differences — and if you can get their attention. But just think about the impact a custom yard sign will have on the neighbors of the seller.

Here’s the cute part: I know that the people we compete against are worried about disintermediation as a front-burner issue. The joke’s on them. Their clients won’t leave them for lower fees but, rather, for greater value…

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Pinocchio wept: The map is never the territory, so even a much, much better Zillow.com clone would not be able to evaluate real property . . .

David G. from Zillow.com replied to my post yesterday which argues that Zillow.com Zestimates are bunk, which I had proved to my own satisfaction in an earlier post. I’m revisiting the topic — to everyone’s delight, no doubt — because I want to drive the point home, and because I want to illustrate how a business like Zillow.com could do a better job — which would nevertheless still fall short of Zillow.com’s fraudulent promises.

I’m going to draw from a few places. This is David G:

So, why is it inappropriate to comment on your “debunking Zillow” series? Well, frankly, I think you’re entitled to your opinion and I respect it. I may disagree with you; but how does saying that help this conversation?

I cannot for the life of me imagine how anyone could reason rigorously about the argument I made and yet disagree with it. You cannot evaluate a house without seeing it. That seems to me to be beyond dispute. I’d be amazed if Zillow.com were to admit it, but they cannot deny it.

There’s more here, of course. No one with any sense at Zillow.com would buy or sell a home without a professional opinion of value.

But give the man credit. He doesn’t deny the truth. He just doesn’t quite admit it:

In many respects, I actually agree with you; Zillow does not replace visiting a house and its comps or a strong knowledge of the local market.

On the other hand, take a look at these promises, made on Zillow.com’s home page:

What is Zillow promising if not “knowledge” of the values of homes it has never seen?

Do you think this is ambiguous? This is from the Zillow.com “About Us” page:

Why not help consumers by giving them access to the same kinds of information and tools agents use?

Do you get the impression that what is meant here is “visiting a house and its comps or a strong knowledge of the local market”? I don’t.

David G. again:

Also, I find your argument applies equally to any AVM.

AVM is Automated Valuation Model. And David is 100% correct. All AVMs are equally fraudulent if they claim to Read more

Mapstopia: A strong first day . . .

We left the visible work visible. If you click on the “Go” button, you’ll get a Google push-pin at our house. If you click on the link in the text balloon, you’ll get the web page I made for our house when we bought it. If you type in any other address anywhere, you’ll go there, but the web site is hard-coded for now.

We’re focused on the database challenge for now, to be followed by the searching and sorting challenge, to be followed by the thrashing under a datalanch problem. A “featured listings” map from here is not problem, and we may do that using the Trulia feed (because it’s clean and because it’s there). But what I want is to suck down the entire MLS every night and use that as a visually intuitive IDX search tool — which I’ve written about before.

My input has been minimal and completely conversational. This is entirely Cameron’s triumph, and he didn’t know the Google Maps API even existed before last night.

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Mashterpiece: The return of the prodigal programmer . . .

Those are the Swann Boys in April of 2001. My father, James Swann, is to my right, my younger brothers, Matthew and Michael, are to my left, and my son, Cameron, is the little kid in front of me who is being so lovingly coerced. I use a thumbnail of me from that photo in all of our marketing stuff for four good reasons: I’m always going to look like Fred Flintstone no matter which photo I use, we don’t do personality marketing, so it doesn’t matter, Cathy and Odysseus are the cute ones anyway, and that was a very happy day for me.

Cameron is almost 15 by now. That’s him to the right — an astoundingly large specimen, considering that I used to hold him in the crook of my elbow.

He just got back from spending six weeks with his mother in Seattle. When he left, I was just putting BloodhoundBlog together in WordPress, so he came home to a lot of changes. Cameron is our better, smarter programmer. He wrote the current versions of most the software we use to drive our web sites. But while he was away, I discovered dozens of new projects I want him to undertake, starting with this.

I’m curious to see how all this works out. When I was Cameron’s age, I was a teenage photo geek, so I always made good money on the side. But my son is a web programmer growing up in an environment where he has plenty of opportunities to make a whole lot of money (for his age) doing really interesting projects. I can’t do the same quality work he can do, but I can design, manage and test the work he does, and I can direct his efforts toward the best profits for all of us.

It’s kind of a mash-up of disparate skill-sets, and I’m interested to see where he can take it.

Further notice: If you sneak over here, you’ll see the work in progress. As I write, when you zoom in, you’ll end up right over our house. We’re the brown roof, three homes in from Read more