There’s always something to howl about.

Category: Disintermediation (page 36 of 43)

Something to howl about: BloodhoundBlog wins the Carnival of Real Estate . . .

Inman Blog, this week’s host of the Carnival of Real Estate, sets the bar even higher than we did last week, cutting the list of entries down to a solid ten. Astoundingly enough, we took first place.

Why astounding? For one thing, we had come to fear that our urbanity was eclipsed by an overarching arcanity: We thought we might be too hard to read. Plus which, we cut all four of Inman Blog’s entries last week because we thought they were too short. We never for a moment thought they would be so petty as to exact revenge — but it would be hard to blame them if they did.

Todd Tarson is in town tomorrow for an AAR event, so we’ll save the celebratory drink until he stops by to say hello. In the mean time, we’re off to read all the other great entrants, and we commend you thither. (Who is hard to read?)

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When real estate brokers face a substantial cost for head-count, only the most profitable heads will survive unsevered . . .

Mark Nadel’s white paper on real estate commissions is very thoroughgoing, rich in detail and a rational understanding of human motivation — without slipping over to the hyperbole that afflicts much criticism of the residential real estate industry.

But Nadel is an outsider, so, while his diagnosis of what ails our business is spot on, I don’t get the impression he apprehends the underlying causes of our belligerent sclerosis.

I wrote the text quoted below a couple of weeks ago, and I need to come back to do it better justice. But it remains that the real estate brokerage business is not so much about selling real estate as it is about milking agents.

There are at least three components that have made this industry amazingly stupid, as compared with any other business in the capitalist system. The first two are commissions and licensing, but the third, and by far the most consequential, is the safe-harbor income tax exclusion. Because brokers can “hire” everyone as an independent contractor, they have no reason to cultivate human capital — the only kind that really matters. This was a foolish mistake, and it may well be the death knell for traditional personal-service real estate. One of the things we want to do, in the long run, is effect a totally different kind of business model for real estate representation. This again could result in huge costs savings for buyers and sellers while increasing our own profitability.

Want to get the bums out of this business? Make real estate brokerage so efficient that only smart, honest, ethical people can make a living. Profit is the purpose of capitalism, but a gradual movement toward moral perfection is a necessary secondary consequence.

Getting rid of the broker-level license would help, but don’t hold your breath. Getting rid of the safe-harbor withholding-tax exclusion would achieve a similar effect. When real estate brokers face a substantial cost for head-count, only the profitable agents will survive in this business.

This alone is probably not enough to get brokers to behave like the owners of other professional-service practices, but it’s a step in the right direction…

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Why the traditional real estate commission model is broken and needs to be replaced . . .

These are the concluding paragraphs of Mark Nadel’s white paper on real estate commissions. The executive summary has been quoted all over, but I think this text is more compelling.

For what it’s worth, I think Nadel has hit a home run. There are things he doesn’t know about, which we’ll get to in a minute. But he has the whole residential real estate industry dead to rights. This is an important thesis. If you don’t make time to read the whole thing, as least read this summing up:

The traditional, straight percentage-of-sale-price residential real estate brokerage commission does not serve the interests of either home buyers or sellers. Fees are unrelated to the quantity or quality of service provided by brokers and their agents. The rate structure creates little incentive for agents to provide the value-added services of which many are capable, and also produces some serious harms to buyers and sellers. These harms include buyers not being alerted about available homes meeting their search criteria because the listing broker or seller has not offered an attractive fee to the buyer’s broker; and providing sellers’ agents little incentive to invest the effort to raise the net sale price of a home. The traditional commission rate structure has become structurally unsound and should be rebuilt.

The foundation of a new fee structure should have buyers’ brokers setting their own fees or negotiating with buyers; not relying on standard, default commissions set by sellers’ brokers in the MLS. The traditional practice of sellers’ brokers specifying the fees that buyers’ brokers charge to the latter’s own clients, should be recognized by appropriate governmental bodies as at least an attempt to fix market prices. Antitrust law simply does not permit one firm to attempt to set the price that its competitors charge for a competing service.

The situation today is very different from that of twenty years ago. At that time, sellers’ brokers noted their co-op fee offer in their MLS listing because they were making an offer to the agents working with buyers to join the seller’s broker in serving the interests of the seller. There was Read more

Pinocchio made flesh: Crafting a real business from the splintered ruins of the real estate industry . . .

I had email late last night night from Mark Nadel, author of the AEI-Brookings Joint Center white paper on real estate commissions that has been cited lately by the Freakonomics blog and by weblogs all over the RE.net:

Greg,

I wish I had discovered your BloodhoundRealty blog earlier. If so, I would have referenced you in many of the footnotes of my 75-page law review article (including almost 400 footnotes) criticizing the traditional broker commission rate structure. If and when you have the time, I would love to get any criticisms, corrections, suggestions, etc., that you (or any of your readers) might have to my piece.

It is posted [here] and has been recommended by the Freakonomics blog.

Keep up the good work and I will be including appropriate references to your work in the revised version of my article.

Take care,
Mark S. Nadel

That’s very sweet, and I hope he’s writing notes like this all across the enblogged globe, most particularly to Our Lady Ardell.

For my own part, I think we are about to witness a revolution. BloodhoundRealty.com is at a de facto flat fee for buyer representation right now, and we’ll be rolling the idea out in stages starting tomorrow. In the short run, I think we’re gong to take a lot of business. In the long run, I think the co-broke is going to settle down to a flat fee for everything or nearly everything — and from the high-end first. In other words, my view is that we’re buying a short-term advantage and we’ll have to be ready with even better ideas when the market responds.

This is where we’ve been since we’ve been here: If there is any room left in the real estate marketplace for personal-service representation, it will have to be insanely great personal-service representation. One of the things we’re always looking for, as a business strategy, is the way to attack on two flanks: We bring much better service and benefits at a much lower cost. Whichever argument you want to make against us, you’re already beat.

What’s left — three years out, five years out, ten years out? Read more

Goodbye, MLS. Hello, CraigsList.com . . .

We had three listings close this week, a new listing going into the MLS, we’re both showing quite a bit, and we had our usual meta-projects — plus The Carnival of Real Estate. It’s been a busy week…

On top of all that, we took one of Cathy’s listings “private”. The house had been MLS-listed, but it wasn’t getting good traction, so Cathy and seller agreed to take it to the kind of hybrid listing we’ve been talking about: Cathy will continue to market the home as an “exclusive” listing, except that the 3% that had been offered as a co-broke through the MLS is now offered directly to the buyer, to be used at the buyer’s discretion.

This is the text from the flyer and the web page:

THE BUYER RULES!

The seller has set aside 3% of the purchase price to be used at the Buyer’s discretion. Use it to pay for a Buyer’s Agent, to reduce your down payment or to defray your closing costs.

I have an idea that there is a certain kind of buyer who likes the idea of going into a transaction without representation as a sort of fetish, the counterpart to the hard-line recidivist FSBO seller. Our challenge now is to find those buyers. Goodbye, MLS. Hello, CraigsList.com…

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Getting thousands of dollars in real estate commissions back: Getting the idea across . . .

Okay, let’s play. I’m building marketing materials around the flat fee buyer representation idea, and you can have a look at them — for a price. What’s the catch? Tell me what I’m missing. What I’m getting wrong. What could be better-handled.

Witness:

That’s an ad. It may run as you see it in free-distribution supermarket listings magazines, or I may do a black-and-white version for the newspaper.

The web page cited in the ad is live, so you can visit that, as well, if you like.

If you have any thoughts you would like to share — while my dog might be all nose — I’m all ears…

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HotPads.com: A for-rent-by-owner site based on a whimsical map mash-up . . .

This is the map search screen from HotPads.com, a for-rent-by-owner site launching tonight:

This is the most whimsical map mash-up I’ve seen yet, and the site is a treat if only for the cartoony graphics.

In Phoenix, at least, they’re aggregating listings from local property management companies, although landlords can register to list their homes on-line. The site provides a lot of details on the listings, along with neighborhood information.

The site seems to be reliably alive right now, but tomorrow is their real launch date, so, if something flakes on you, cut ’em a break and come back later. There’s a weblog if you want to track their progress.

We rarely do leases now, but I used to do a ton. The MLS is a poor solution, since agents don’t love to list rentals, and they really, really don’t love servicing the listings. I sell a bunch of rental homes, though, so I’m always watching for better ways to market availability. HotPads.com is a sweet solution…

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Linking my way out of the trials of tabulation . . .

Sellsius° wrote this morning about tabbed browsing, but they have no idea. I live my normal life with over 100 tabs open at any time, and right now I have many more than that. I’m going to do a bunch of links, because I want to close tabs I’ve been opening since last week.

(What about crashes? I use Saft for Safari. My Mac never crashes anyway, but if Safari starts to get cranky, I Force Quit then relaunch. Saft reopens all my previously-opened tabs.)

Joel Burslem at the Future of Real Estate Marketing cites some stats from Redfin. Not to be contrary, but I think 131 total transactions ain’t bad for a new brokerage. It’s nothing for the head-count of 35, to be sure, but most of those heads are useless eaters. Divided by 12 agents, that’s almost 11 sides per agent over six months, just short of two sides a month. At full-commission, they could live on that. But at one-third commission, before the broker’s cut, its pretty lousy money, so I guess Joel is right in the end.

The Property Monger shows how to use inspections as a negotiating tool. The post is pretty Massachusettscentric, but the general principles travel.

Bonnie Erickson at Real Estate Snippets takes on buying real estate during a divorce. The specifics might be Land of a Thousand Lakes-local, but, again, the principles are ubiquitous.

My favorite math gods, Altos Research, take on the media’s flavor of the month: The unaffordability of housing. Alas, the last time math persuaded a reporter is when it persuaded him to major in Journalism.

Local to Arizona, Todd Tarson at moco real estate news details how Mohave County was able to hang onto it’s land use traditions. It turns out you can fight City Hall…

John Keith at The Boston Real Estate blog weighs in on the idea of flat-fee buyer representation.

Want to sell to wired prospects? Mike’s Corner has bad news and good news, with a review of Waiting for your cat to bark? (Mike’s feed is broken, so you’ll need to visit his blog to keep up with his thinking.)

Jeff Brown at Behind Read more

Zillowing the convergence: ‘Close enough is good enough’ will eventually eat every anti-Zillow argument except the ethical complaint . . .

When I was young, I was convinced I was going to work in either editorial or advertising. I was a teenage photo geek, a Junior Jimmy Olson with thousands of dollars worth of professional photo gear slung over my shoulder. In college, I was publisher of the student newspaper. From the time I was very young, single digits, I was producing all sorts of printed material. And because I often didn’t have a budget, I learned how to do a lot of it by myself.

The net consequence of all this is that, by the time I had to get a real job, I knew how to write, I knew how to create images — and I knew how to do many of the back-end jobs associated with producing printed words and images. I looked at my job opportunities and saw that print production paid a helluva lot better than content creation. So I went to work in Wall Street (where the very best money was found) producing 10-Ks and Blue Sky Reports and Annual Reports. I worked a boatload of IPOs, and 102 weblog posts overnight is not a very big job compared to the 100+ hours of the revision cycle on an Initial Public Offering.

All of this was happening at an epoch we might name The Dawn of the Age of Connectivity. The law firms we worked for had high-end dedicated word processing systems, and they wanted to know why they couldn’t do everything “on disk” — in the dewy-eyed lingo of the day.

It fell to me to do this, mostly because I was interested and no one else was. The “disk” problem was a bear, and there were dozens of kludgey “solutions” to this dilemma over the years. But, understood as a telecommunications problem, mere capture of keystrokes was not that big a problem.

The big problem was expressing word-processed coding as typography — and if you are not fairly well-versed in typography, you are probably already saying, “What’s the difference?” And, indeed, the difference today is much smaller than it was when I was doing this work. Typography once Read more

Appraiser reverse-engineers Zillow.com’s “secret sauce”: Can you guess the main ingredient . . . ?

Lee Ovington, a real estate appraiser who works and blogs in Elgin, IL has successfully reverse-engineered Zillow.com’s Automated Valuation Method:

The above examples give us some indication of how Zillow arrives at its value estimates (or Zestimate). Quite simply, the Zestimate relies on a calculated relationship of assessed value to sale price. Zillow merely takes selected transactions and calculates the relationship between the Assessed Values and the Sales Prices. It then applies that ratio to the subject’s assessed value (plus or minus some adjustments) and “whala”, you have Zestimate!

The above examples show that even when Zillow has a large margin of error in its Zestimate of 10-15%, the Zestimate is still highly correlated with the Assessor’s Values. We can conclude from this analysis, that the Zestimate is a derivative of the Assessor’s Values. Zillow may be slightly modifying the data by some weighting or factor like time or distance. That “tweaking” of the data could be the “secret” part of its formula; but clearly, the Zestimate is based on the underlying Assessor’s Values as indicated by the high correlation coefficient.

This is not surprising, by itself. It’s how AVMs work, after all. But by deconstructing Zillow’s results, Ovington demonstrates how little sauce there is in the vaunted “secret sauce”…

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Fast full-service buyer’s brokerage at a flat fee: That smells like a big win to me . . .

This is from a comment by Jeff Brown, responding to an earlier post. I’m only showing a snippet here, but Jeff’s ideas are worth apprehending in full and pondering at length.

Once and for all, the money paid for representing a buyer OR a seller is based upon only one factor: The ultimate value perceived by the client. Is the client better off being represented by you than not represented period? Is he better off with you vs. another agent?

Here’s the thing: The market will bear what it knows about. This is the purpose of marketing, to educate your own buyer.

So think of it this way:

I personally can sell about a house a week. More than that, and I can’t juggle all the eggs. But even assuming I have enough ready, willing and able buyers to sell a house a week, the effort involved for some transactions can exceed the time I can afford to spend on it. Because we don’t relate costs to compensation, sometimes we make good money, and sometimes we take it in the shorts. No other personal services/consultation business works this way — except for contingency-fee attorneys.

So: In ideal circumstances, I can sell a house a week at $250,000 each, on average, earning $7,500 each, on average, for a gross income of $375,000. Not bad. My marketing costs and other expenses are huge, and, practically speaking, some of those transactions were under-performing: Either the deal didn’t close at all or my costs exceeded my return. And, of course, I don’t always have a buyer to work with every week. Unused Realtor capacity is a hidden cost in this business, one that would be accounted for in the books for in any other business. But still, after everything: Nothing to sneeze at.

But suppose I can structure my business a different way. What if I were to charge a flat fee to represent a buyer in exchange for a non-refundable retainer. My marketing costs just plummeted, especially for the high-end clients whose homes we want to list — now and also when they move again. My exposure for under-performance just Read more

Beautiful and functional: New BlueRoof.com map searching interface sets bar higher . . .

BlueRoof.com has a new map searching interface, combining a number of good ideas from other interfaces with the company’s great design sense.

The interface features the slider controls seen in ShackYack.com‘s search tool. Unlike that system, though, BlueRoof.com does not get bogged down trying to display more listings than its underlying software can handle. If your search results in too many results, you are invited to narrow it.

The search area is defined by the visible portion of the map, however, which implies that, if you don’t already know where you want to be, you can’t use a relatively unfocused search to seek out neighborhoods in your price range. We’re sweltering under heat maps just now, and that would be a simple solution here.

The BlueRoof.com interface uses three different kinds of house icons to indicate active listings: A green roof is MLS-listed, a blue roof is a FSBO, and a blue roof with an avatar out front is a FSBO with broker participation. This is an idea we had talked about when first we saw the ShackYack interface — adding to it ShackYack’s idea of using color intensity as a one-glance method of comparing relative prices.

Things I don’t like:

I want more search tools, even if they come in a pop-down tab to make things simple for the punters.

I want to be able to get a feel of the whole housing market, even if I can’t see houses without narrowing down by area.

I have a huge screen, but I still get a small map. I think the page is being built to conform to BlueRoof.com’s toolbar (which is gorgeous), rather than growing to the available screen real estate.

I could not get to the detail page on any house. (Mac OSX 10.4.7, Safari 2.0.4)

Overall: Very pretty. I think this is the new high bar for map search interfaces. Considering the money in play at the Goliath-like realty.bot sites, BlueRoof.com is David triumphant today…

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Butterflies might be free, but home-buyers pay for real estate advice — whether they know it or not . . .

Ardell raises some questions at Rain City Guide about my column in this morning’s paper on negotiating the buyer’s agent’s commission. I’m going to address some of her remarks here, but my fullest statement on the topic is quite a bit more comprehensive. In the newspaper, I get 350 words a week, with the result that I am splitting this one topic over 5 (or possibly more) weeks. I’m thinking, too, that we should create a category for these weblog posts, because both Cathy and I are writing quite a bit on the subject.

And thus to Ardell’s points:

“I find that most consumers would like we in the industry, to lead the revolution and win that battle for them, rather than being involved in the process of that change in the industry.”

I’m sure that would be nice, but I don’t expect it to happen that way. One of the reasons agents are so close with the co-broke information is that they’re giving up so much on the listing side. Buyers are the last sheep to be shorn — even though buyer representation is getting easier, not harder, and even though the prices of homes have risen dramatically over the years.

I don’t see any way for this to change across the board without buyers becoming educated and putting their education to work. One market segment who could help a lot are the For Sale By Owner sellers. They could implement my idea of conceding funds directly to the buyer, to be used at the buyer’s discretion for representation or other costs, with none of the risks a listing agent might face.

“Has anyone seen the Buyer Agent fee show on the Buyer’s Closing Statement when the transaction closes?”

This is the only way a HUD-1 is produced in Arizona. If it’s not being done that way in Washington — one HUD-1 for everyone — I can’t imagine why. In any case, the buyer can negotiate for full disclosure of all funds.

“Seller pays his agent and buyer pays his agent, is the only rational answer…”

But it’s not actually true. For a represented home, the seller sets Read more

Blogoff Post #73: Using Web to buy home a bad idea . . .

This is a sweet one from my Arizona Republic column:

“Save thousands buying surgery online!”

It may be a while before you see this headline. But you can’t open a magazine or a Web site lately without hearing that Realtors are about to be “disintermediated” by the Internet.

“Disintermediation” is a 50-cent word that means cutting out the middleman. It has happened at the low end of the travel agency and the stock brokerage businesses, among others. Some Internet start-ups plan to automate or streamline the functions performed by Realtors, in anticipation of the glorious day when you will sell one home and buy another online.

There are problems with this idea. For example, although the book-selling business allegedly has been disintermediated, you will have plenty of time to read about that as you bide your time in the checkout line at Borders or Barnes & Noble.

Then there are these considerations: Would you say that a Realtor is more like a sales clerk at Target or Wal-Mart or more like a surgeon?

Is your home, or the one you hope to buy, more like a DVD at Best Buy or Fry’s Electronics or more like a unique work of art?

I’m not sure this column is holding up that well. I can’t imagine buying a house as though it were buying a book at Amazon, but I have sold plenty of houses that the buyers have never seen.

In the first instance, we are taking note of the consultative expertise of Realtors, full-time professionals who know how to market homes and how to effect transactions against a sea of troubles. Surely some Realtors are better than others, but it would take a pretty lousy surgeon to be worse at surgery than an amateur.

In the second instance, we are talking about the idea of fungibility — substituting one item for another with no concern for differences in value. DVDs are highly fungible, as are books, items of apparel, travel arrangements or shares of stock.

I’ve read that radiological diagnostic work is being farmed out by broadband to India. This is a very interesting time to be in the real estate Read more

Zillow gets the address right . . .

You can’t be too careful. So, when I received a call from a man who introduced himself as the appraiser for my client’s condo, which is under contract for an October close, I wanted some proof he was who he said he was. My client is a pretty young woman who lives on her own, so I don’t give out her phone number indiscriminately. I confirmed the inspector’s information with the Arizona Board of Appraisals and my client scheduled an appointment for this past Saturday, when she could be home and grant him access herself.

I just heard from the appraiser. He thought it was strange when he got to the condo that no one was home. But, the door was open. He figured the owner had had to run out unexpectedly, so he let himself in. He hadn’t expected the distinctly masculine decor and level of housekeeping he discovered as he went through the home, and was especially surprised by the absence of women’s clothing but abundance of men’s when he opened the closets, but we’re an enlightened society…

The good news, he reported, was that the home appraised for the sales price.

The bad news was that he had appraised the wrong condo!

So Zillow might not have the accuracy advantage of feet on the ground, but, up in its ivory tower, it gets the address right!

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