Author: Russell Shaw (page 9 of 10)

Mega-Producing Realtor

December 23, 2006

The Harm That David Lereah Does

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius, and a lot of courage, to move in the opposite direction. — Albert Einstein

Mike wrote:

If you don’t have a sense of humor, you probably don’t have any sense at all.

Merry Christmas to you and your family, Mr. Shaw.

And to everyone else here.

You see, salutations can be expressed without including a condescending, gratuitous insult; try it sometime.

Fair enough. As you were obviously smart enough to see that the humor line was intended for you (without me saying so) I’m going to attempt to respond to the whole “David Lereah Issue” without (after all, it IS Christmas) making any snide comments towards you (or any of the other people who may share your views). First, I am not “defending” David Lereah. I don’t know him and I have never paid any attention to any specific statement or prediction he has made. I don’t even know how long he has been the chief economist for the NAR. I have no data to suggest that any of his predictions or forecasts are ever accurate and I am not claiming that they are. I will also state that I have read comments from people who have meet him and / or have listened to him speak and from all accounts the reports would indicate that he is a likable person and comes off as well informed and intelligent.

For the purposes of what I want us to look at here, we can think of David Lereah as the equivalent of a stopped clock – at a minimum, he is going to be right twice a day with the correct time. So, if the point is that he is usually wrong – lets just agree, he is almost always wrong. For me, he does not cast a “long shadow”. I don’t think most REALTORS even know who he is, or what he has to say – let alone the general public. I don’t believe that most people who live in the United States give a crap what he or anyone Read more

December 22, 2006

Merry Christmas David Lereah

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

If you don’t have a sense of humor, you probably don’t have any sense at all.

To get things started, here is Lereah as a Dancing Elf. Turn your sound on to get the full effect.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

December 21, 2006

Lereah Must Die! He is a Clown

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Talk is cheap. Supply exceeds Demand. Lereah

Not His Favorite Clown What follows are a few “Economist Jokes”. Not wanting to shock anyone but all of these were written and were being told when David Lereah was still in grade school. Here is a news flash – people who are finding themselves being “victimized” by the pronouncements of an economist have to be looking for ways to be a victim. I’m not defending Lereah, I’ve never bothered to pay any attention to anything he (or any other economist) had to say about anything.

NO major economist accurately predicted, in advance, the phenomenal run up in prices that started two years ago. Every last one of them was asleep at the switch. The switch was turned on and they – along with everyone else – THEN could make pronouncements about it. That is observation of effect, after the fact. That is not “predicting” anything.

____________

Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.

____________
“I’m thinking of leaving my husband,” complained the economist’s wife.

“All he ever does is stand at the end of the bed and tell me how good things are going to be.”

____________
There is also a joke about the last Mayday parade in the Soviet Union. After the tanks and the troops and the planes and the missiles rolled by there came ten men dressed in black.

“Are they Spies?” Asked Gorby?

“They are economists,” replies the KGB director, “imagine the havoc they will wreak when we set them loose on the Americans”

____________
Economists don’t answer to questions others make because they know what the answer is. They answer because they are asked.

____________
The only thing more dangerous than an amateur economist is a professional economist.

____________

Economics is the only field in which two people can get a Nobel Prize for saying exactly the opposite thing.
____________

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.

____________

An Economist is someone who didn’t have enough personality to become an accountant.

____________
Q. What’s the difference between an economist and a befuddled old man with Alzheimer’s?

A. The economist is the one with the calculator.

____________
The last severe Read more

December 21, 2006

Inside The Box – YES, NO and MAYBE

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal. – Henry Ford

In an email, Adam wrote:

Russell-

I never got a chance to thank you for the Star Wars “Duel in the Desert.” I attended the event and very much appreciated your insight and humor. I have been doing Real Estate for over 6 years in CA and AZ. Although I have made over 100k one year, I have struggled through many others. I found this interesting in the sense that you mentioned doing this through the first part of your career (the ups and downs).

Somebody asked you a question and you mentioned to them about not being “all the way in the box.” You then mentioned something along the line of You finally getting this perspective yourself in your career and getting “all the way in the box.”

I want to get all the way in. How is this change made? How do/did you flip that switch? I’ve been waiting for years yet it hasn’t happened.

If this seems like a strange email, it’s because it is! I just valued your advice so much that you gave a couple of months back and thought you might be able to give me more insight.

Thanks,

Adam

The question I was responding to was from a lady asking about sending out postcards but she didn’t want to mail “ordinary” postcards to a farm area or a personal mailing list. She wanted something really unique – something outside the box. As I hear this sort of thing all the time (and recognize it as a destructive idea) I told her that her problem was not that she wasn’t outside the box with her thinking and her postcard program but that she wasn’t IN the box yet. Few agents are suffering from not being “outside the box”. They think they are but their real problem is they haven’t gotten “inside the box” yet.

There are certain fundamentals in any industry, profession or activity. There are correct ways of doing almost anything. The people at the top (of almost any activity) have Read more

December 14, 2006

Anonymous Posters Who Hate Lereah

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

“name” wrote:

Lereah not only lies, he either knows or should have known he is lying, which means that if he is unaware that he is pathologically lying then he belongs in a psychiatric unit.

Point made. I’ll have him committed.

___

“David” wrote:

Lereah is a paid shill of the NAR, not a true economist. He’s never made a “prediction” in his life that would be detrimental to the realtors’ commissions he’s paid to inflate, or his own book sales

Surprisingly, after reading what you wrote, I now also hate Lereah. If an official Hate Lereah Organization (HLO) is ever formed, I sure hope you and I can at least be board members. It is totally understandable to hate all shills and any economist that isn’t “true”, especially if they work for NAR. Thank you for helping me to clear this up.

___

“Mike” wrote:

Please write if you ever get real work.

Excuse me?

My opinion of you just plummeted, Mr. Shaw.

Aw crap! And just when your opinion of me was starting to matter too!

___

“Kaiser Sose” wrote:

Russell, perhaps you don’t remember the dot-com bubble of the late-90’s. Lereah is no different than the biased analysts that were promoting lame stocks by making rediculous assumptions. …. Here’s my prediction… In 2007 over $1 trillion of ARMs reset and many people will be under water. Foreclosures will continue to increase, and this market will probably bottom sometime in 2008 or 2009. I expect to see significant price decreases of around 20% to 30% in the bubble cities like Phoenix, but more modest decreases in other cities. We will likely be in or near a recession in the second half of 2007.

And your prediction Mr. Shaw? Or are you just another blowhard shill without a clue?

I have already conceded the point that Lereah is just no damned good. Period. He is a bastard. But if I am also a shill – what is it that I am shilling? What is it that I seem to be “promoting”? I am leaving the blowhard and having a clue parts alone – as I can’t defend against Read more

December 13, 2006

Making Predictions, Cowards & Lies

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

“Mike” writes:

A lot of the current level of vilification is because of people like David Lereah, ostensibly the public voice of all realtors in the US, who is now perceived by many as somewhere between a buffoon and a baldfaced liar.

The man simply cannot tell the truth and every monthly and quarterly revision the NAR issues highlights that problem.

You are correct about one thing: David Lereah is often wrong in some of his predictions. I don’t think he is the only economist who makes non-stop predictions (that are published and posted on the internet) who is wrong on some of his pronouncements. In fact, he has a lot of company. To my knowledge almost every economist who makes predictions about the direction of “the market” is often wrong – it just goes with the territory. In all of history there is NO person who consistently always accurately predicted the future of any financial market (real estate, bonds, stocks, art, etc).

This is also true for people who – on a daily basis – predict the weather. They are often wrong. But most people don’t tend to characterize the meteorologist who said, “No rain this weekend” as a baldfaced liar. Most people seem to understand that anybody who makes predictions all the time will not be right all the time. Unlike you (and the other gleeful I-hate-everything-about-NAR-and-all-Realtors), David Lereah actually uses his real name when he makes a prediction – and his past predictions are readily available for anyone to compare with the actual statistics that did occur. Based on the fact that Mr. Lereah uses his own name – just this one point – makes anything he might have to say FAR more credible than anything you (or any of the other nameless and spineless cowards who anonymously snipe) might have to say. I have NO respect for the opinion of someone who is too spineless to even use a real email address.

How about YOU bother to do some real research yourself before you call someone a liar? How about posting specific statements made by Lereah and the specifics Read more

December 11, 2006

Dear Abby

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Dear Abby:

I have two brothers and
two sisters; one brother
is a Realtor, the other was
just sentenced to death
for murder. My mother
died from insanity when
I was young. My two
sisters are prostitutes and
my father sells narcotics
to feed the family. Recently
I met a girl who was released
from a reformatory, where she
served time for smothering
her illegitimate child, and I want
very much to marry her.
My problem is this: If I marry
this girl, should I tell her about my
brother who is a Realtor?

December 11, 2006

Thank You, Mr. Barton, May I Have Another?

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Rich Barton asking: “Why do some people take an instant dislike to me?”

My answer: “To save time”.

I’ll give Rich Barton and Zillow full credit for listening to the PR firm they must have hired. Just last February this is what Rich was saying:

Zillow’s Barton was quoted as saying that inevitably real estate services and fees will change as online services take hold. “I’m not implying that we have some new commission model figured out, but it feels like . . . Realtor services are going to be unbundled a bit,” he told Inman Real Estate News.

Nice, huh? Right out of the gate and the most important thing he has to say to the press is how HE is going to help drive down real estate commissions. Here is more from our new best friend, Rich Barton:

“People want Realtors,” he said. “But is it rational to pay Realtors what they are paid?” He says he thinks they are overpaid because customers are doing more of the work themselves.

Zillow, for instance, has a number of other features that do the work of the agent. Someone wanting to compare properties can use pull-down menus to estimate the value of remodeling projects that are not reflected in the price. Because of the Internet, agents are spending less time with clients, Mr. Barton said. “Agents have to ask, What kind of value am I adding?”

Mr. Barton does not exclude the possibility that the role of the agent, and his site, may change.

Good News Everyone! Rich added: “it is not our intent to dislocate the agent.”

He wants us all to earn less but he is willing to let us keep our jobs. This is good news – especially in light of the way he is now (just 10 months later) being heralded as being on the verge of changing real estate for the better. It wouldn’t seem quite so wild except it is Realtors doing the horn blowing for him. What must have occurred in that boardroom in Seattle?

“Listen Rich, if we are ever going to take over the industry you are going to Read more

December 7, 2006

Is Bloodhoundblog The Most Wired In Blog In Real Estate?

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

I got back to my desk late this evening. I had an Inman News Flash email with a time stamp of 10:21 PM announcing the new features on Zillow. Naturally I thought I would pass it along to the Phoenix resident expert on all things Zillow – Greg Swann. The last two times I tried “helping Greg” by passing something along to him I was surprised to find that he already knew about it. This time I thought it might be different as it was about 11 PM and I knew he didn’t have a paid subscription to Inman News. But just to be sure, I went to Bloodhoundblog to catch up first. As you will see below – if you haven’t already, Greg not only knew all about it – he had known all about it for days, and had been interviewed by the folks at Zillow so they could find out what he had to say about it!

Damn! What an amazing group has been assembled here. Good thing none of us suffers from stage fright, as I suspect the spot lights aimed here will only get brighter. On that note, I need to admit several errors on my part. I don’t have all of the correct facts yet, but I received a call last night from my good friend, Marge Lindsay – Bob Wolff had called her. Most of today Bob and I played phone tag and I have not spoken to him yet. Bob is the top selling Re/Max agent whose name I mentioned in my post about Steve Ozonian’s home sale. I believe the specific statements I made which are not true are: his house was not located in Laguna Niguel, there was no dispute regarding commissions – in fact Bob Wolff HAD the listing but later canceled it, and it was not a Coldwell Banker agent who later sold the house. I was also told that Steve Ozonian had sent me an email to let me know about this but I did not receive one from him. I did reply via email to a comment from Read more

November 30, 2006

The Millionaire Real Estate Agent

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.

– Isaac Newton

First things first – WOW, what a fantastic collection of writers and contributers this blog has! I came to Blodhoundblog to quickly see what had already been written before I started to write my post. I wound up spending over 90 minutes reading every single post, going to each of the links (thank you SO much, Richard for http://www.psychotactics.com/). I am so pleased with Greg’s decision to change the direction of Bloodhoundblog – and I was already happy before the changes. I may not post everyday but I sure will read it every day.

What follows in this post may seem to some like Earl Nightingale meets Buddha – and maybe it is – but I think you are going to like it.

Last week Matt wrote:

I might have missed something in the post, but to say that all listings for the discounter were $299 is probably not correct. “58 X 299 = $17,342.”I see a lot of “Discounters” using low selling price as a tool to get people in the door, or on phone. $299 is usually a no support price…and then they tack on a-la-carte items to raise that price up. True, it will never be full commission, but I doubt all 58 sold for only $299. How would he still be in business only making $17K per quarter?Russell, How hard was it to get to the level you are at today? Many realtors never get to this level, because it is very, very hard. I would bet that it is a lot easier to throw up a bunch of ads, that say you will sell a home for $299, and get a ton on people in your office. It can’t be that hard…

I don’t know how much selling up occurs at his site. But assume he only sells half of the listings he takes and gets paid on twice as many as he closes and manages to up sell every possible option he has – I still don’t like the numbers. I Read more

November 27, 2006

Jay Reifert Is Tired Of NAR Hiding The Truth

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Good news, Jay, I’ll take this one for $200.00. I doubt that Laurie Janik is going to respond to you (as – per you – they have “something to hide”):

You’re a riot, Steve. My contract is a proprietary document, built out of years worth of my research, experience and fine tuning. Why don’t you ask Coca Cola to post their secret recipe here? I have no intention of putting it out here for you, and your kind, to copy.

Why don’t you call Laurie Janik, General Counsel of the National Association of Realtors? over at NAR headquarters in Chicago and ask Laurie to do something about me? I am just spoiling to
get this fight into the public eye, so that the abuses endemic with Procuring Cause, the silent theft of home buyer rights,will come to the forefront of consumer consciousness.

I have no qualms, whatsoever, about the truth of this situation getting out. Unlike NAR…I have nothing to hide.

The buyer agent document you use is a SECRET that you won’t share with other agents? And you think that you are being ignored by Laurie Janik because “NAR has something to hide”? What a self-important gas bag you are. Please allow me to let a little of the air out. And to answer your burning question, yes Jay, I did Google “procuring cause””reifert”. Anyone who cares to can just hit the hyperlink.

I found your views and attitudes so self centered and oblivious of how the world works (the one everybody else lives in) that – before I reply – I am including your comments on Bloodhound Blog here in their entirety.

Thank you for the kind words, Trevor. The Procuring Cause that is of importance, here, is Realtor? Procuring Cause, hereafter–in this post–PC. Although there is a legal doctrine of procuring cause, that isn’t the breed of which any of us speak, when talking about PC. NAR hands down the guidelines on PC arbitrations, but it is up to each panel–very often composed of hard core PC trappers–to interpret the events which will determine who is actually PC in any given transaction.When Read more

November 25, 2006

NAR Got It Right & Greg is Correct Too

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

I stand corrected – what I wrote was wrong. I said,

“Some interesting stats (that NAR should have evaluated but doesn’t dare – as it would look like they favored “traditional brokers” over the current crop of leeches)”

2006 NAR President, Tom Stevens did correctly evaluate that data and NAR did a wonderful job of it too. You can see it all here, in an article by Blanche Evans – who is, by far, the most well informed and relevant estate columnist around.

Greg Swann wrote about the extremely nutty Keith at Housing Panic and I laughed out loud when I read it. Greg – in a different post – wrote about Ace Reporter, Catherine Reagor – protesting her lack of relevant data analysis. He closed that post with:

Why are newspapers dying? How about because they refuse to tell the whole truth…?

I don’t believe that Catherine Reagor is refusing to tell the whole truth – I believe that she can not correctly evaluate relative importances or has an editor who has gone WAY out of his or her way (for years) to always make her look bad. Has she ever written anything that you (“you” here would be anyone reading this) thought, thinking to yourself, “Damn, that was good!”. Compare any random droppings from Blanche Evans to Catherine Reagor’s work and you will notice that Blanche tends to compare statistics so that after you read what she wrote, you are better informed – and now know more about the subject. But the quality of their real estate writing really isn’t true for everyone at the Arizona Republic, I’ve enjoyed reading Bob Golfen’s car columns for years – and even if I didn’t like the car he was writing about, I liked reading what he had to say about it. A couple of really bright and decent people in the editorial area there are Richard de Uriate and Doug MacEachern. Also, I don’t believe that the Arizona Republic would have anything to gain by intentionally withholding “the truth” – about any subject.

Giving any statistic without comparing it to SOMETHING RELEVANT tends to make the statement Read more

November 24, 2006

What IS Marketing Anyway?

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

In early 2006, the former president of Realtor.com, Steve Ozonian was appointed Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of Realty Information Systems, Inc. dba Help-U-Sell Real Estate. Just prior to this time, he was living in Laguna Niguel, California, where he had a home to sell. Would it have seemed “logical” or “right” for him to list his home with a Help U Sell agent? Probably, but that isn’t who he called. He first called, top selling Re/Max agent, Bob Wolff. Bob wouldn’t reduce his commission and Steve listed with someone else (I believe it was a Coldwell Banker agent who actually took and sold the listing). It was NOT a Help U Sell agent or a Help U Sell office. The closest Help U Sell office to Steve’s home was in Corona Del Mar, 21.8 miles away – a bit of distance, but not that far.

It says right there on that particular office’s landing page, “Full Service, BIG Savings! Licensed Professionals at a low set-fee” – and yet, Steve didn’t call them. Why? Was it the distance from Corona Del Mar to Dana Point? I don’t think so, I believe there was another more significant factor involved – marketing position.

What is successful marking? Is it “running an ad”? Is it sending a postcard? Wearing a nice suit and smiling? How about a “PR campaign”? Is that marketing?

Marketing is the “shelf space” you (or the product, or both) occupy in the mind of the prospect. Any product or person is thought of in “a certain way”. This may or may not be based on advertising – usually not. Think of someone you really trust. That person has a “position” in YOUR mind that says that they – and what they have to say – can be trusted. It can be depended upon. The most significant breakthrough on this subject (and still one of the most important books on this subject ever written) is “Positioning, The Battle For Your Mind” by Ries & Trout. The more recent, “The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing” by Al Ries and Jack Trout is Read more

November 22, 2006

Trevor Responds and shows he is a nice guy

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Anonymous Coward… Thank you for at least acknowledging that you are one. I have never seen the experience you are referring to take place here at JLSPCR. (I guess I am not even really clear what you are saying, in the first place though.)

Russell Shaw – 1.)Your point about making the MLS public is a great one. I will contemplate that, and rethink my philosophy.2.)I just plain think your wrong about Redfin, and I can’t imagine that we will be coming to a meeting of the minds anytime soon. My thought is this though… I don’t think Paul Allen’s Venture Capitalist Company, Vulcan Capital, would be investing in a company that is criminal or that will be shutting their doors anytime soon. I am taking a risk by applying Redfin… the same kind of risk as people who applied at Google did in 1998.

3.) Thank you for your objectivity regarding discount brokers. I think you are right about Help-U-Sell

Phil –
The reason my business model struggles in a traditional brokerage is because many traditional brokers are ripping agents off, becoming rich of their agents backs. The whole real estate industry needs a shake up, starting with the brokers. You can read my thoughts on this here: http://bluecollaragents.com/wordpress/?p=13

Phew… I think I answered most of the challenges. I think I want to take a break from blogging for a while and eat Turkey. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

1. I totally agree with Trevor with regard to his comments to Anonymous Coward – I always have far more respect for opinions when they are connected to a real name.

2. I HAVE to point out that although I fully understand Trevor’s view’s regarding Paul Allen (because I once thought exactly the same way – if it was backed by Paul Allen I didn’t need to worry) the facts are that Mr. Allen has a track record of wasting HUGE amounts of money by investing in companies that wind up closing their doors once he stops feeding them. His post-Microsoft successes have all come from companies that were already quite prosperous and also had existing competent management teams, Read more

November 20, 2006

Dual Agency Smack-Down – Russell Answers Up

by Russell Shaw

Mega-Producing Realtor

Trevor Smith writes:

First, I want to say that you are incredibly articulate and a great writer. You know what you believe, you’ve researched it, and you stand by it. So, as far as that goes I respect you.

Second, I am with John L Scott, where I charge 4% commission for a full service listing package. I love John L Scott, and my Broker has been very supportive of my business model.Third, I recently interviewed with Redfin. This is not because I don’t like John L Scott, but becasue I believe in Redfin’s model. I believe that the REALTORs who will succeed in the next 30 years will likely adapt to a model similar to Redfin’s (ie lower commissions)

I would point out that since John L. Scott is a proven company and Redfin isn’t – your odds of success are far greater at your present home. If your present company – I believe it is the largest and most successful real estate brokerage firm in the entire northwest – is willing to support you in your desired business model, wouldn’t it make more sense to stay there? Check around and find out what the most successful John L. Scott agents earn and compare that to what the most successful Redfin agents earn.

If Redfin were not a public company (one supported by raising cash from investors) they wouldn’t even have their doors open now. It isn’t a sustainable business model. You are free to ignore my comments and to believe that I am “biased” against them because they are a discounter, but you would be wrong in that assumption. Many companies are “discounters” and do quite well and I have no quarrel with them either.

Fourth, by interviewing at Redfin, I learned EXACTLY how Redfin operates their business, and so when you say that Redfin is not procuring cause… respectfully you’re the monkey… because you’re wrong. Redfin, does show houses to their buyers, does do the paperwork, and does take it to closing. That is procuring cause.

There may be circumstances and transactions where they aren’t guilty of violating procuring cause, nevertheless, that business model Read more

Author: Russell Shaw (page 9 of 10)

The Harm That David Lereah Does

by Russell Shaw

Merry Christmas David Lereah

by Russell Shaw

Lereah Must Die! He is a Clown

by Russell Shaw

Inside The Box – YES, NO and MAYBE

by Russell Shaw

Anonymous Posters Who Hate Lereah

by Russell Shaw

Making Predictions, Cowards & Lies

by Russell Shaw

Dear Abby

by Russell Shaw

Thank You, Mr. Barton, May I Have Another?

by Russell Shaw

Is Bloodhoundblog The Most Wired In Blog In Real Estate?

by Russell Shaw

The Millionaire Real Estate Agent

by Russell Shaw

Jay Reifert Is Tired Of NAR Hiding The Truth

by Russell Shaw

NAR Got It Right & Greg is Correct Too

by Russell Shaw

What IS Marketing Anyway?

by Russell Shaw

Trevor Responds and shows he is a nice guy

by Russell Shaw

Dual Agency Smack-Down – Russell Answers Up

by Russell Shaw

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