BloodhoundBlog

There’s always something to howl about.

Author: Brian Brady (page 4 of 27)

Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

July 29, 2011

Could Mortgage Rates DROP after a Treasuries’ credit ratings downgrade?

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

The dictated debt limit deadline looms and a credit rating downgrade, to US Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, seems likely.  Naturally, a spike in treasury yields is expected and a subsequent rise in mortgage rates should follow.   That’s right out of the senior year textbook, in most American business schools.

I’m not so sure the fixed-income markets will follow the textbook.  Mortgage rates might … do nothing in response the the credit rating downgrade.  Here’s why:

The credit ratings agencies lack……well…credibility.

The independent credit ratings agencies ( Moodys, Standard & Poors, Fitch, etc) have a reputation for being late on the scene.  They got hoodwinked with Enron, MCI/Worldcom, and Greece.  They were asleep at the wheel during the mortgage meltdown, issuing AAA ratings to CDOs, up until late 2007.  They are often considered to be too chummy with the issuers (the issuers pay their fee) and when the issuer is a government (with the power to regulate their business), they generally walk on eggshells.

The news may be baked into the market already.

The ratings agencies have been signaling a potential downgrade for months.  Clearly, raising the US debt limit will allow the Treasury to remain “liquid” but the agencies have said a downgrade is likely unless a substantive plan is enacted to reduce spending.  Cut, Cap & Balance, the “most extreme” of the proposals offered, still might not have been “extreme” enough to avoid a downgrade.  Both political parties are demonstrating that they lack the political will to address the long-term structural deficits, needed to bolster the Federal budget, to avoid the ratings downgrade.  Fixed income traders seem to be shrugging that off.

US Treasury securities are still considered to be the safest investment in the world.

Certainly there are better run countries than the US but their debt offerings lack SIZE; there ain’t enough of that debt for the real money.  Germany has its EU obligations hanging around in the background and Japan seems to be in worse shape than we are.  Chinese sovereign debt could be a consideration but the Chinese and Japanese still want their investments dollar-denominated.  The US is, for all Read more

May 20, 2011

If There Really Were A Real Estate Agents’ Union…

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

…this is how business might be done:

You (a willing home seller) would look for a real estate agent and discover that the government mandates that you hire, its delegated agent, to market and negotiate on your behalf.  That chosen agent will be the only one who can deal with potential buyers and will select which offer you should consider, among the many offers available.  The agent presents the offer, to which you suggest a counter-offer or refusal.

In this hypothetical example, the agent tells you that you don’t have the option to counter and reminds you that you have a binding contract with her as an exclusive agent; she says “Take the ‘reasonable’ offer or suffer the consequences”.  Obviously, you don’t think that’s fair and want to test the free market.  You might consider another real estate agent because you don’t think she’s negotiating on your behalf.

Rather than allow you to pursue your own course of action, the real estate agent accuses you of “agent busting”.  She sets up a picket line, in front of your home, with big signs proclaiming you to be “evil” or responsible for “unfair tactics”, or “greedy”.  She turns away all potential buyers of the home by calling them “scabs” and proclaiming that a reasonable enough offer was on the table and you were just an evil, greedy agent buster.

She might convince the power company to sever your electricity, phone and internet.  She might try to prevent the grocery store, pizza delivery guy, landscapers, and pool maintenance guy from servicing you, per your standing contract with them.  Finally, she might try to restrict your income by hampering your ability to work .

You’re a tough cookie, though.  It’s your home.  You bought it, improved it, kept it clean, and want the best price a willing buyer might pay you. You hold out, regardless of the wacky protesters, bused in from out-of-town, screaming at you, your children, your neighbors, and anyone who might dare speak with Read more

May 5, 2011

Repeal The PATRIOT Act. Bin-Laden’s Dead.

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

STARDATE:  22 February 2002

Borrower:  Why do you need my driver’s license to secure me a mortgage?

Brady:  I’m required to by the new law, the USA P.A.T.R.I.O.T. Act.  We mortgage originators have been enlisted in the GWOT, as the first line of defense.  I’m proud to do my part to help protect America and hunt down Osama bin-Laden.

Borrower:  That’s jacked up.  Did you know the PATRIOT Act also allows the FBI to execute it’s own warrants, tap your phone, read your email, intercept your written correspondence, and instruct your banks to not inform you that they are spying on you?

Brady:  You don’t have to be an agitator. I’m just doing my part.  In fact, the President said it not only is it our duty to protect the Homeland against marauding borrowers, he wants us to lend you more money… to get the economy moving, you see.

Borrower:  So..I can borrow ABOVE the value of my home?

Brady:  Absolutely.  It’s your patriotic duty.

Borrower:  Heil, baby.  Where do I sign up?

Geronimo is down.  Repeal the PATRIOT Act.  I know that freedom ain’t free but I now know tyranny can come disguised as tuxedo-clad theater goers.

April 27, 2011

The Stick, the Carrot, and The Men Behind the Curtain

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

Monday, I talked about how real estate is better described as a store of value rather than an investment, referencing the work Reason’s Anthony Randazzo published.  Randazzo really hit it out of the park because he showed, without a doubt, how the residential real estate bubble started right after 1992.  Look at the second chart (Case-Shiller Real Housing Price Index).  That chart shows the adjusted for inflation index.  It looks like an EKG after a jolt from defibrillator paddles.  Every curious person would want to know what those defibrillator paddles were.:

Only once the so-called 1992 Government-Sponsored Enterprise (GSE) Safety and Soundness Act opened up the floodgates of federal subsidies, later to be caffeinated by the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy in the early 2000s, did prices double nationally.

ZAP!!! The 1992 Government-Sponsored Enterprise (GSE) Safety and Soundness Act which turned out to be an oxymoron.

One commenter didn’t buy the results of the EKG and said:

Seems to me that America has had a succession of bubbles, market manipulations and public speculations since the mid 80s. Gold/Silver in the mid 80s, the Saving & Loan scams later, then the tech stock mania, then the real estate bubble and now we’re seeing gold/silver mania again as well as two recent bouts of crude oil speculation.

And these things were caused by activist government planning? No, these things were caused by BIG, BIG money jumping from place to place and “making the market”.

I asked a leading question:

What makes it “jump”?

I should have pointed out that there was a commodities bubble in the late 70s (remember the odd and even days at the pump?) but, let’s add that 70’s commodities bubble, to the many asset bubbles cited by the commenter, and ask “Is that normal?” and, if it isn’t (by the way, it isn’t normal), we must wonder, did anything happen in the 1970’s which would cause money to move quickly in and out of asset classes?  Isn’t there some asset standard to which our dollar could be pegged?

The answer is like a bar of gold, hidden Read more

April 26, 2011

Housing Might Not Be a Good “Investment” But It’s Not a Bad Hedge Against Inflation

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

Debra and I had the good fortune to met Anthony Randazzo at a Reason Foundation dinner last week.  Mr. Randazzo published an article today, about real estate as a “store of value” (which was consistent with what we’ve been talking about here on BloodhoundBlog).

Few people will dispute that more homeowners adds “social value” to communities.  Greg Swann articulated that nicely here:

The essence of our freedom is the free ownership of the land, and yet everywhere we turn, private property is subjected to one law after another, and everything that is not forbidden is compulsory instead.

This is a grievous error. The men who become Brownshirts or Klansmen or Khmer Rouge — the men who make up murderous mobs — are men without land. It is the husbandry of the land — each man to his own parcel — that most makes husbands of us, that sweeps away our willingness to live as brigands or rapists or thugs.

By robbing the private ownership of the land of its meaning, the state is, by increments, robbing its citizens of their humanity. No one burns down his own home, nor his neighbor’s home. But when the time comes that we all seem to own our homes only by sufferance, none of us will have anything left to defend.

What Greg was arguing against was an activist government, abusing eminent domain laws.  I was happy to read that locally, the brigands disguised as National City, CA Councilmen were defeated last week but the war in defense of private property rights will be a long campaign.

Mr Randazzo’s article however, demonstrates how that “social value” (op. cit.) can be distorted when the planners keep planning:

When looking at housing this way, the “ownership society” lauded by President Bush in the early 2000s, sounds like a good idea. Especially when considering the social values associated with homeownership, like being a good neighbor and having a stake in nuturing a community. However, while owning a home is rarely a bad thing, it might not be the great investment our Read more

April 19, 2011

Until there is a brokerage counter at Wal-Mart, there is no real estate bubble

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

Ever wonder about the relationship between gold and real estate?

Jim Klein got me to thinking about a “store of wealth”, when I postulated that there is no gold bubble:

I think people can get snookered into thinking it’s a great “investment.” It’s protection, it’s barter; it’s a store of wealth. To me, that’s not what “investment” means, which is usually about income. I believe that in actual inflation periods, gold tends to appreciate on the low side, particularly when compared with many other assets. It does much better /anticipating/ inflation, as now.

I remembered hearing that term before, over on Seeking Alpha:

Gold and Real Estate have historically been the two ways to store real value as they are as real assets as you get. So what happens when the value of one real asset is artificially manipulated? We all know by now what caused the bubble in real estate, but, at the height of the bubble it was unknown to the market that it was a bubble on the verge of bursting

Real estate does have income-producing value though, as Sean Purcell pointed out to us years ago.  Also, the median-priced home is larger today than it was 40 years ago, because of change in retail demand.  Still, for fun, let’s compare the median price of a single-family home, in August, 1971 ($25,300) to the price of a single-family home, in February, 2011 ($202,100), in ounces of gold:

On August 1, 1971, the price of gold was pegged at $35/oz so it would have taken 722 ounces of gold to purchase a median-priced, single-family home.  Two weeks later, The United States terminated its participation in The Bretton Woods Agreement, creating a fiat currency.

At the end of February, 2011, you might have paid $1,400/oz for gold.  You could purchase a median-priced, single family home then for 144 ounces of gold, about one-fifth the cost (in gold), from 1971.

What I’m missing here is the net operating income you would have derived from that single-family home, over the 40-year period.  I’d have to know Read more

April 17, 2011

“When Wal-Mart has a gold coin section in the jewelry department…

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

…then we can start talking about a possible bubble in gold.”–Gary North, on LewRockwell.com

Gold is an investment asset. It therefore will not become popular short of an economic collapse – hyperinflation followed by a depression. The average person owns no gold coins, nor will he anytime soon.

Where would he buy them? How could 100 million households buy a single gold coin per household? This would be impossible. There are only a few small coin stores in any community. They are mostly mom-and-pop outfits. The U.S. Mint could not meet the demand.

When Wal-Mart has a gold coin section in the jewelry department, then we can start talking about a possible bubble in gold. Not until then.

If you’re looking for the best primer for owning gold click the link above and read the whole article.  Of course, if you’re confident that the Fed will find a way to unwind QE II, and that the money center banks are all safe, and that we’re finished with bail outs, and that the Federal budget deficit is under control, you have no need to own gold as an an inflation hedge.  If you think ANY of those shoes could still drop, buy the yellow metal until you see it offered at Sam’s Club.

February 15, 2011

Joe Biden Was In Philly To Pitch High-Speed Rail

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

…and I swear, before he finished his speech, he channeled his inner Harold Hill, just to convince the rubes in the vernacular:

Seventy-six small towns on the big rail line
Over a hundred and ten miles of track, to nowhere
They were followed by recyclable trash cans, dotted all across
the Land, the cream of the climate changin’ scare

Seventy-six rail cars caught the mornin’ sun.
With a hundred and ten passengers lounged within.
There were more than a thousand engineers
Watching all the gears
With a horn, signalin’ the big green train was near!

There were union bosses, activists, and ne’er do wells.
Looting, looting,  all along the way.
Earmarks, tax credits, “Gee, ain’t it swell?””
Each politician,  having his big, fat say!

There were fifty miles of track in the far off desert.
Explorin’, explorin’ where noone had been before
An industry to subsidize
All voters get a free ride!
At last!  We’ll even up the score!

Seventy-six short years is the cost recoup
Over a hundred and ten agencies, will oversee
You’ll no longer see coughing, sputtering cars, dotted all across
the Land, just high speed rail, from sea to shinin’ sea!

I love a good musical so I’m looking forward to Robert Preston Joe Biden’s speech in Ioway.

February 7, 2011

Pope Obama and the Synod of Commerce

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

President Obama ventured into the enemy’s lair today, channeling his inner Reagan.  The message, designed to be benign towards industry, still included his sarcastic finger-wagging at the tycoons:

“I’m here in the interest of being more neighborly,” Obama said. “Maybe if we’d brought over a fruitcake when I first moved in, maybe we would have gotten off to a better start.”

The President just doesn’t get it, though.  He still thinks the fascist model works:

Obama alternated between pledging help for business from the federal government and asking big business to do its part to help “win the future,” a theme he first introduced two weeks ago in the State of the Union address.

“Ultimately, winning the future is not just about what the government can do to help you to succeed,” said Obama. “It’s also about what you can do to help America succeed.”

Obama claims that he is open to suggestions:

If businesses lack confidence in the economy, Obama said they should let him know about it.

“If there is a reason you don’t share my confidence, if there is a reason you don’t believe that this is the time to get off the sidelines – to hire and invest – I want to know about it,” Obama said. “I want to fix it.”

Cool.  Let’s tell him to roll back the federal register to 1990.  Uh, oh !  Maybe not.

Obama has launched a review of regulations to eliminate burdensome rules, but he gave a nod to their importance in Monday’s speech.

“Even as we work to eliminate burdensome regulations, America’s businesses have a responsibility to recognize that there are some safeguards and standards that are necessary to protect the American people from harm or exploitation,” Obama said.

“Moreover, the perils of too much regulation are matched by the dangers of too little. We saw that in the financial crisis, where the absence of sound rules of the road was hardly good for business.”

Sean Purcell is right.  Obama isn’t a pragmatist, looking for solutions.  The President is a religious zealot, forced to Read more

February 1, 2011

Virginia Legislature Wants The Commonwealth To Be The Golden State. California Accedes.

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

Worried about a dollar collapse?   Virginians may worry less because their legislature  is proactively investigating solutions:

WHEREAS, various systems of alternative currency employing gold or silver, or both, in the form of coin or its equivalent in bullion have already proved themselves in the free market, and could either be employed by the Commonwealth directly or be used as models for a new system created by the Commonwealth to meet Virginia’s unique needs; and

WHEREAS, the adoption of an alternative currency consisting of gold or silver, or both, would not destabilize the present monetary and banking systems, the Commonwealth’s governmental finances, or Virginia’s private economy, because it would not compel or commit the Commonwealth or her citizens to employ such alternative currency to the exclusion of the Federal Reserve System’s currency immediately, but would merely make the alternative currency available, and enable it to be used in competition with and preference to the Federal Reserve System’s currency, to the degree that the need for such use became apparent; and

Governor McDonnell (R-VA) claims the resolution would be unconstitutional, that the powers to coin money rest with the federal branch of government.  I don’t think that matters.  The Virginia Resolution simply recognizes that a competing currency might be needed should the US currency collapses.  That resolution could very well be the “shot heard ’round the world”.

Americans of all walks of life, from the CEO in the corner office to the cop walking the corner beat are following the price of gold and silver daily.  Some are actually buying the precious metals, too.    Wall Street, in its typical fashion, developed a derivative product to sell to its customers.  The bankers and brokers claim GLD and SLV are a more simple approach to hedging portfolios with an exposure to precious metals.  Guess what?  It may be harder to find the actual metals, held by the Wall Street mutual funds, than the mortgages packaged in the collateralized debt obligations.  GLD and SLV may be empty vaults; perhaps a scam.

I started moving money into silver about Read more

January 7, 2011

Do You Know How To Network?

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

I used to hate networking meetings because they seemed like business card collecting contests.  I always feel cheapened by the “Wham.  Bam!  Thank you, Ma’am” Chamber of Commerce meetings, where the person of the moment looks over your shoulder, for someone more interesting, while you compliment her on the color of her blazer.  I usually have two too many drinks at these and wake up with a fistful of business cards and a craving for aspirin.  Often, when I call said peach-color blazered Amway rep, to follow up, she doesn’t remember me at all.

I’ll be damned if I’m not…memorable !

I still like meeting people so I started my own gig, a few years ago.  It’s been mostly successful because I’ve been at the center of the group and have blanket permission to call or email everyone who attends.  More importantly, they remember me when I call.

I’ve branched out on Meetup and started attending new networking mixers.  Here are a few tips I’ve picked up, which has increased my efficacy, and helped me develop more genuine connections with strangers:

  • I don’t try to meet everyone.  In fact, I often ask people where the real estate agents, attorneys, accountants, and wealth advisers are.
  • When I do meet someone, I use Michael Peak’s strategy of asking “What are you working on?” and then asking “How can I help?”  Those two questions reveal more about anyone’s business than the traditional “What do you do?” and “Who’s your best target client?”  Asking those two questions has opened some doors for me.  Ironically, although I reject the Chamber crowds, I met Michael at one of them.  It’s plain to see why he made an impression on me.
  • I set a goal of meeting three people and ask for permission to call or visit with them.

That’s my trick.  I know who I want to meet when I attend, ask those two questions, and try to make three new friends at each gig.  I reject the card collecting and try to go deeper with the conversations.  Oh, I almost forgot; I relax and have fun, too.

So…what are YOU working on?

December 17, 2010

Lawrence Reed of FEE.org lecturing in Southern California in January 2011

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

I wanted to make you all aware of a free lecture series, offered by Lawrence Reed of the Foundation for Economic Education, in early January, 2011:

I’ll be attending the San Diego lecture and have a friend attending the Los Angeles lecture.  I hope to have synopses of both, published here on Bloodhound Blog, by mid-January.

November 26, 2010

GM IPO= $ 4 UAW

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

Here is yet another example of how the sharp noses of the Bloodhounds, caught a whiff of the stench, before the media did:

Do you remember how Sean Purcell was confused with the mathematics behind the GM IPO?

You know, I seriously don’t mind when others try to mislead me and I’m not much offended when I get force fed a whole bunch of obfuscation from the government , but when you mess with the math you insult me on a much deeper level.  (Note: I may hold math a little more sacrosanct than most.  I see in math the core of philosophy, music and precision; I look at math and I see poetry.)  Listen, it’s not like this is differential calculus; it’s basic multiplication and division.  Don’t stand there and tell me 2+2=5!  As Mr. Brady is fond of saying: “I am cursed with the knowledge that two plus two does, in fact, equal four.”

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m not buying shares in a company run by people who think they’re so smart math doesn’t apply to them.  In the end, the math of the free market does apply, and it is always right.

Well, Patrice Hill from the Washington Times had a problem with the math as well.  She was more conclusive than our Mr. Purcell.  Ms Hill called the prestidigitation what it was; a payoff:

Thanks to a generous share of GM stock obtained in the company’s 2009 bankruptcy settlement, the United Auto Workers is well on its way to recouping the billions of dollars GM owed it — putting it far ahead of taxpayers who have recouped only about 30 percent of their investment and further still ahead of investors in the old GM who have received nothing.

The boon for the union fits the pattern established when the White House pushed GM into bankruptcy and steered it through the courts in a way that consistently put the interests of the union ahead of many suppliers, dealers and investors — stakeholders that ordinarily would have fared as well or better under the bankruptcy laws.

“Priority one Read more

November 18, 2010

I just “feel” that mortgage rates could drop, for a short period of time

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

Didn’t I just tell you mortgage rates will be rising,  ten days ago?

I sure did, and I think I offered a pretty solid, fundamental explanation of how the bond bubble will pop.  That hiss you heard, directly after my post, was the rapid escape of helium from the bond balloon.  Back then, the 4.0% FNMA bond was trading at 102.75, while today, that bond is trading at 101.50, after reaching a low of 101.25.

What’s that mean to your customers?

The very same $300,000 loan, they could have locked in with no points, on November 8, 2010, will cost that customer about $5,000 extra, in closing costs, today.

I “feel” they’ll have a shot at getting close to that no-point pricing before the month is over.  Let me explain the difference between “feeling” something and “being pretty certain about” something.  I’m pretty certain that the sun is setting over the yardarm of below 5% mortgage rates but I’m having a little difficulty reading the sun dial.  I know it’s sometime between 3PM and 8PM for this mortgage rates rally.

Still, before the last ray sinks into the sea, we’ll see some rallies.  Here’s why I “feel” that way:

  • The Fed is buying between $600B and $900B worth of bonds.  It is resolute that this sort of monetary policy is what is needed to lower unemployment.  So certain is it that it is fighting back against political criticism of QE2.
  • The GM public offering was received very well yesterday.  Investors jumped at the chance to own the electric car company so much that GM expanded it’s offering and is trading higher, post-offering.
  • The Irish bond bailout appears to be happening.

Traders are calming down, and trusting the power of central banks’ and governments’ bailouts again.  A trader’s loyalty is about as reliable as a lap-dancer’s love but, for the near-term, bond traders think  QE2 just might drive bond prices higher.  They ain’t selling too much and they ain’t buying too much.  Expect them to watch what happens through next week, then pile on the bond train, hoping to make a quick buck.  That’s good for mortgage rates, in the short-term.

Eventually, Read more

November 8, 2010

Mama Grizzly Knows Sumptin’: It’s Sunset For Low Mortgage Rates

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Commercial Real Estate Finance Expert
Structured Debt and Equity
Licensed Real Estate Broker in AL, CA, and FL

Author website

One of the things I love about the internet is that links last.  For your soap-operatic pleasure, Sarah Palin asks a national author if he read his own newspaper, when he criticized her remarks about inflation:

So, imagine my dismay when I read an article by Sudeep Reddy in today’s Wall Street Journal criticizing the fact that I mentioned inflation in my comments about QE2 in a speech this morning before a trade-association. Here’s what I said: “everyone who ever goes out shopping for groceries knows that prices have risen significantly over the past year or so. Pump priming would push them even higher.”

Mr. Reddy takes aim at this. He writes: “Grocery prices haven’t risen all that significantly, in fact.” Really? That’s odd, because just last Thursday, November 4, I read an article in Mr. Reddy’s own Wall Street Journal titled “Food Sellers Grit Teeth, Raise Prices: Packagers and Supermarkets Pressured to Pass Along Rising Costs, Even as Consumers Pinch Pennies.”

It’s common knowledge that Sarah Palin is a vacuous bimbo, who gathers her economic news from the Wasilla Women’s Club Newsletter, right ?

Call me suspicious but I watched an amiable dunce win the Cold War, without firing a shot.  Let’s just say I’m less inclined to question the intelligence of country bumpkin politicians, after living through Reagan, and am more inclined to second guess the propagandists at the major dailies.

Whodathunk Mama Grizzly would face the Wall Street Journal, though?

Mama Grizzly and Mama Brady know something about inflation; they do the weekly grocery shopping.  When Mama Brady told me that our grocery budget had to be adjusted upwards, while I was remarking that our budgeted monthly fuel expenses had to be adjusted  as well, I started thinking that inflation might just be around the corner- that’s not good for mortgage rates.

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