Geno Petro has passed away. He was one of the best writers to work with us here over the years – and I have the proof.
Cura ut valeas, frater. Requiescat in pacem.
Author: Greg Swann (page 1 of 209)
Suburban Phoenix Real Estate Broker
You know how it is. The NAR had to get itself sued to death first. Inasmuch as nothing is actually changing – adamantly, nothing – that works out to be a decent deal. Rotting giants fall hard, but sic semper tyrannosauris, as we have said all along.
Here’s what’s what: Starting in 2006 or so, BloodhoundBlog started debating ways to make the contradictions of our convoluted commission scheme more transparent and fairer to both buyers and sellers.
I ended up arguing for an idea I called The Divorced Real Estate Commission. If you click the link, you can read an eBook I wrote on the subject. Or you could just read the news from FannieMae and FreddieMac, who are this week implementing the idea I came up with seventeen years ago.
Seventeen years… And how many billions will the NAR have pissed away fighting a rear-guard action to get to where BloodhoundBlog was seventeen years ago…?
This amounts to a brag on BloodhoundBlog’s part. Out of seventy-ish contributors, only Brian Brady and I have written here lately – not very much and not very lately. Our whole server gets hammered when I blog here too frequently. But the blog of the dawgs endures, as witness. Because there is ALWAYS something to howl about.
How bad is your listing agent?
I’ve spent much of this month documenting how ineptly Redfin.com lists homes for sale. It wasn’t something I set out to do. I’ve been dour about them since I discovered CEO Glenn Kelman’s racist staffing policies, but I had never paid any attention to them with regard to real estate. They have mattered nothing to my business: I’ve never had a Redfin showing, never shown a Redfin listing.
But I was simply amazed by what I found. Just as with iBuying and the carrying costs of owning non-producing housing, every experienced broker knew that salaried agents would not produce. But even so, I was unprepared for what I found: Multiple bone-headed deal-killing errors in each listing, with those errors repeated in listing after listing. Since the MLS listing is the gatekeeper to showing and every succeeding step in the purchase process, if the listing repels the buyer, the home cannot sell.
And they don’t. Many listings Close over 90 days, some over 180. They have a lot of Cancelled and Expired listings, as well, with many of those at huge DOMs. Strangely, a significant number of these sellers relist. Having already lost six months and 20% of the property’s value, why not truly go for broke?
Oh. Nevermind.
And that would be the real problem. Redfin makes a point of not understanding real estate, so their plan is to recruit an agent who no longer exists – the top producer. The team leaders and rainmakers who actually sell homes are working at 95% to 100% splits – but the Read more
“If a slacker employee was mysteriously transformed into a house for sale…”
“What happens when the market turns?”
It would be charitable to argue that the iBuyers actually thought this mishegoss would work. Perhaps that’s so: They’re flippers, except they are very bad at every part of the flipping process. And they’re pawnbrokers – buyers of last resort – except they buy first, not last, paying top-dollar for the honor, then cling to their assets like precious prodigal sons.
Brokering real estate works for almost nobody, but it only works because the broker does not own the asset. Owning non-producing assets as “investments” is insane. It can only work if you buy at deep, deep discounts – like flippers and pawnbrokers do, and like OpenDoor apparently cannot do.
So: Closed Sale Price compared to Original List Price, on average: April -$9,537, May -$16,935, June -$31,698.
Those are from Phoenix. Perhaps they’re doing better in other cities, but this is their primal market and ground zero for all things iBuyer. I think we’re seeing how they work.
The trend on Days-on-Market is not great, and I would expect it to get a lot worse: April 41, May 40, June 48. By June the market had well and truly turned, but in April they should have been moving everything in single-digit DOMs. That they were not – and that they score so few winners in pricing, amidst so many huge losers – tells you how they will do, going forward.
The problem, as I have been saying for years, is that even if they bought right, which they don’t, and even if they rehabbed and marketed right, which they don’t, they would still own the “investments” far too long, resulting in killer carrying costs.
The delusion in iBuying emerged from two ploys from the Federal government, suppressing interest rates for home-buyers and also for Wall Street. Yippee! Practically-free money to buy assets that seem only to go up in price…
Ahem.
Imputed losses per “investment” will get uglier by the day – Read more
Sticks and stones might make a home, but money makes all the difference…
This is all Trump, so you know. Four or five years ago, investors decided that not only would right about now be a good time for new housing, the times would still be good for cashing in on opportunities planned for five years out.
You may think them unwise, but risk is what makes horse races. Moreover, had Trump retained the presidency, the bets would have paid off handsomely.
Things may be different where you are. It’s very easy to build in Arizona, compared to other places. Even so, you have your Trump-promise investments – in sticks, in stone, in steel – and you will have the opportunity to see how things work out locally.
I am beyond dour, for what that’s worth. We are on the cusp of global famine, and how tight belts will get in America remains to be seen. From borrower activity, we know the market has well and truly turned, and yet I suspect people still in the market are underestimating how bad things will get.
Will prices go down? Perhaps, but not necessarily. Since Reagan gifted us with Volker, we’ve treated housing prices as a bellwether to market trends – in real estate and everywhere. That will be a lot less useful as the market tries to find dry land, when it is awash in funds that are 80% newly-counterfeited. The tale going forward will be told by Days-on-Market – from single- to double- to triple-digits.
And yet: Isn’t there a housing shortage? There is here. How about Seattle? No one there will tell us, but the Great George Floyd Migration created housing shortages mostly where bus lines don’t run, leaving locales well-served by rioter-movers hugely vacant. We can expect rent-seekers to fill the most-vacant of that housing with Fiasco Joe’s illegal immigrants – Read more
My apologies for not writing here lately. I need the server for business, but when I write here I get hammered from without and then lose days proving that I am not implausibly engaged in digital self-harm.
In any case: You can see me defending the headline here.
I have a story – late for Christmas, but only for this Christmas – but it is brutal to the point of being gruesome. So far I have been able to keep my distance from it, and we’ll see how that holds up.
Meanwhile, I have nothing, and even the story I have seems like so much embroidery on the void. That the Ruling Class is exterminating we hoi polloi is a rebuttable presumption, but which way are you betting in your planning for 2022 and going forward?
Here is what I can offer for more-sanguine spirits: The leadership you’re looking for is Ds – Driven first, Sociable second. (If you haven’t mastered DISC-my-way, that’s your mistake, easily corrected.) This matters, because every other sort of leader will betray you in due course – you’re soaking in it.
I don’t know of anyone in public life who fills the bill, but your best option, in any case, is to be the leader you’re looking for – the person who can be depended upon not to turn on or prey upon innocents.
“How sad would it be to be the only puppy in the litter?”
So what to make of the new Moronic strain of CoronaVirus? If you swear it’s more virulent, I want to know if it’s software. But if instead you tell me that the objective is to hide inflation by crippling demand, ideally long enough to steal the next election, you will have landed in a place where your claims make sense to me: The entire purpose of the virus is political – and plausibly genocidal.
We are as gods? Nonsense. We are far beyond gods. What god, be he ever so potent, would deliberately undermine his own nature? What god would intentionally self-annihilate?
In other news:
Zero Hedge: A Scared Nu World: Here’s What We Know About The COVID “Omicron” Strain.
City Journal: Guaranteed Murder: From Waukesha to New York, lax bail assures homicides.
Jim Brovard: The Biden Crackdown on Thought Crimes.
“Why is the ‘Dog Show’ more people than dogs?”
Fun to see from the commercials that all American families are black, and all black families are possessed of a scruffy male adult who dances madly and pretends that’s fathering. Amazing to watch American commerce shit all over the money – in pursuit of what, exactly? Paychecks for white voiceover actresses must be down by 90%, post-George-Floyd-sobriety-day, but is anyone measuring the consequences at the cash register of everything being sold by hectoring black women issuing treacly nursery rhymes?
If there is any such thing as a science of marketing, its iron law for the 21st century is simply this: Get woke, go broke. None so deserving. None too soon.
In other news:
American Thinker: Leaving California.
Newsweek: Salvation Army’s Donors Withdraw Support in Response to Racial ‘Wokeness’ Initiative.
Zero Hedge: ESPN Hemorrhaging Subscribers, Down To 76 Million As Disney Scrambles To Stem Tide.
“I like the vet. He knows how to play rough.”
That would be health care for the self-employed – self-insured for all but catastrophes – but I would go to him, anyway. I trust him to see reality for what it is and not to lie to me about it. He may be the only doctor I will ever see again.
Certainly I am done with all vaccines. Whatever the net lethality of the COVID vaccine turns out to be, it is by now obvious that anyone who presumes to speak in an “official” capacity about public health is a liar pursuing unknown objectives.
Nice going, dipwads. Your reputation was nothing but good, and now it’s shit – probably never to recover.
Meanwhile: Find a doctor you can trust. Otherwise, you’re on your own…
In other news:
Redfin.com: Housing Market Update: Home Prices Hit a New All-Time High, Giving Sellers Much to be Thankful For.
“Blah. Blah. Blah. The Kiddie Table is where all the dropped-food action is.”
In other news:
Redfin.com: Rental Market Tracker: Rents Up 13%, Outpaced by 17% Growth in Monthly Mortgage Payments.
City Journal: Strength in San Diego: The city’s triumvirate of police chief, district attorney, and mayor has not given in to disorder.
“What do you call a dog who is good at guile? The Imaginary Dog.”
Accordingly, to speak with me is kind of a shit test: I can tell right away if you are actually listening to me, since you won’t get the jokes if you’re not. The good news is, if you are listening, I know you will be listening when we get to the parts of the conversation that are not deliberately inverted for comic effect. But before even that, there is simply this: People who are awake enough to laugh at the world are awake.
Last night on “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” Kyle Rittenhouse issued an unintentionally-comic national shit test: “We all know how the FBI works.” He wasn’t being ironical, alas, but everyone who laughed knows he is telling the truth.
In other news:
Redfin.com: Housing Market Cooled in October, But Relief For Homebuyers Was Short-Lived.
TheHill.com: Electric car chargers to be required in new homes in England.
Andrea Widburg: Tucker Carlson’s interview with Kyle Rittenhouse is fascinating.
“French Bulldogs are dutch babies – simpering pseudo-sucklings. Prove me wrong.”
That’s a claim I would normally dispute: Popular music – and all music with a lyrical or performative component – is narrative first, with the music serving in supportive, ornamental or incidental roles. No story, no opera. No story, no ballet. Grieg wrote music better known than the play he wrote it for, but this is very much the exception, not the rule.
Cathleen’s complaint is that John Hiatt has lied about the lyrics, but in the end, I don’t care. Much as with Wagon Wheel, the music is so much better than the lyrics, I just don’t care. Plus which, my love is fifty feet tall.
Why does it work so well? You tell me. It’s not a song, not even a coherent chord progression. It’s a dirge with a bridge. But once I give it to my hands, it’s hard for me to stop playing it.
I like it when I find out I’ve been wrong, even if only by a little. Without any lyrics at all, Wagon Wheel is the perfect American work song, and if you play it enough it will sweep you back to the Irish reels from which it comes.
Take It Down has none of that music theory, and none of that pedigree. What it has is a pain that’s fifty feet deep. It’s easy to see why someone might lie about that…
In other news:
Pacific Research Institute: Los Angeles Is Gearing Up to Ban Wood-Frame Construction. Renters Will Soon Pay the Price.
Brad Polumbo: Here’s Everything That’s Wrong With the Build Back Better Spending Bill House Democrats Just Passed.
Ron Paul: It’s Time to Get the Federal Welfare-Warfare State Under Control.
“Judging solely by appearances, bull dogs are spoiling for a fight, while hound dogs are praying for absolution.”
Her person is a physician at Boswell Hospital, and he has grand Boerboel plans: He has land out in the sticks, and his goal is Boerboels abounding, with his breeding operation documented by a YouTube page. I enjoyed talking to him, not alone because he is operating from the premise that there will be a future.
My belief, defended solely by historical anecdotes and prejudice, is that all domestic dogs emerge from two prototypical breeds – Saint Hubert Hounds – Bloodhounds – and Mastiffs. Snouted dogs run down their prey where flat-faced dogs fight like big cats – well-timed leaps followed by close combat. Mastiffs pulled war wagons, and if you doubt that, put Cleo – twenty pounds of Mastiff-descendant – on a lead and see where she drags you.
She was intimidated by the Boerboel, who was in her turn intimidated by Miss Chioux. But later she demonstrated what that Mastiff form-factor can do: She ran down a Standard Poodle who started with a fifty-yard advantage. Cleo is fast, and people notice when she floors it. The Poodle didn’t know she was caught until Cleo raced past her.
And then, as every flat-faced dog must do, she panted for half-an-hour. As always, I had to carry her out of the dog park…
In other news:
Victoria Taft: How Unethical Were the Prosecutors Trying to Put Kyle Rittenhouse in Prison? Let Us Count the Ways…
Thomas Lifson: Kyle Rittenhouse Did NOT Get a Fair Trial.
“If you only bother to train two out of every one-hundred puppies – leave your shoes outside.”
I’m delighted that the railroading of young Kyle failed, dismayed beyond belief that it happened in the first place, and reconciled to the fact that this sort of persecution of the good for being good will recur: “My internal disquiet is caused by your disapproval, not by my own cognitive dissonance. I’ll feel better once you’re exterminated.”
We are sometimes reminded that almost all the violent crime in America is committed by a tiny percentage of the population. We are even slower to take notice that looting riots only happen because there is an extant looter population among us: People who are opportunistically-predatory graduate their predations with the inverse of their estimate of the risk of the consequences. A looting riot is a short period of consequence-free predation.
This is all more underfathering – Kyle, too – but we don’t have a civilization if we do not have good people, if fewer and fewer people learn in childhood why being civilized matters.
In other news:
RedState.com: The Rittenhouse Trial Shows Us Why Cameras in Courtrooms Are the Proper Move for Our Legal System.
The Federalist: LEAKED: Teachers Reveal How They ‘Stalk’ Kids, Sideline Parents To Pull Middle Schoolers Into LGBT Groups.
Joel Kotkin: America Is Built on a Great Culture. Progressives Want to Abandon It.