Start wrong, stay wrong: What value has the big city provided, until now:
it has provided urban citizens with access to technology
In fact: Access to cheaper transportation of people, information and goods – most of which is now obviated by the internet – which would be the point demanding consideration.
But not here.
There are still many parts of the developed world where having a video call is difficult and starting an ecommerce business is impossible due to poor internet speeds.
And this has nothing to do with anyone reading Forbes. Got two bars on your phone? You’ve got what it takes to work from home.
Oh, but it’s not old-tech that matters. New-tech will require cities because… Why? The claims are all about economies of scale, but that’s pretty 19th-century thinking. In fact, new technology – like all innovation – goes where the money is. If the full-price early-adopters move to the exurbs, so will the people who hope to sell to them.
Am I wrong?
Take, for instance, self-driving vehicles. Autonomous vehicles require a massive infrastructure of live data feeds from cameras, GPRS, smart devices, infrared, Bluetooth and sensors in order to ensure that a car or drone can operate safely. These data feeds are not going to exist on country lanes and byways in rural areas.
Of course, all of that is daft. You can get four bars or better from any cell carrier, anywhere rich people go. Meanwhile, escaping the glaring, blaring distractions of urbanity is a key benefit of the exodus we are seeing.
What’s the downside to remaining in the big burgs?
Those who do live in cities will see a substantial degradation of their privacy rights as surveillance becomes a way of life.
I’m pretty sure getting mugged by gangs of Grasshoppers is going to turn out to be a bigger deal. Don’t worry, though. Virtual reality will give you something else to think about, as your wounds heal.
Why are people racing out of big cities right now?
Disease and crime.
Even if the purported fruits of Big Data will be cheaper or more available in big cities – peopled by whom? – will that offset the much-higher and rapidly-rising risk of injury, illness or death?
I think the author is promoting his business, like many of Forbes’ writers. What makes big cities attractive, now and foreseeably, are the opportunities to loot.
Greg Swann says:
Here’s more. Don’t believe the evidence, such as published U-Haul rates. Go with your gut feelings, instead.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/09/08/no-new-york-city-and-others-are-not-in-a-death-spiral/
September 9, 2020 — 8:30 am
Greg Swann says:
Zillow names the third reason to ditch those big-city digs: Affordability.
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/zillow-nearly-2-million-renters-can-become-homeowners-thanks-to-telecommuting/
September 9, 2020 — 2:55 pm
Greg Swann says:
15,000 vacant apartments in Manhattan.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/10/manhattan-rental-market-plunges-leaving-15000-empty-apartments.html
September 9, 2020 — 9:35 pm