For all the doom and gloom about the economy etc., it’s important to remember that the productive talents of human beings can create better lives for all of us.
Technology is one sector of the economy that, broadly speaking, has witnessed tremendous innovation over the past 30 years. Nearly the whole panoply of consumer electronics – cell phones, smartphones, computers, digital recorders, the Intertubes, digital cameras – did not exist in 1980, or existed in such a rudimentary form (I remember playing on my Uncle’s 48k – or was it 16k? – Apple II+) that they were novelties.
In fact, real wages have stagnated or declined since 1970, such that any improvements in the day-to-day American life are attributable through the human inventive power. Some people make better stuff for the rest of us to consume and enjoy, and, of course, to use in our work.
Pretty cool.
Now, this might just be a bunch of marketing puffery, but this year’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas may be the best ever:
“In my 28 years of attending the CES and participating in it and being a part of it and running it for most of that time, I can honestly say there will be more innovation at this show than any one in history,” Gary Shapiro [president and CEO of the CEA] said.
If you’re like me, this will set your heart aflutter: “rumors are flying that Apple will unveil a touch-screen tablet computer January 26.”
Greg Swann says:
I think this is correct on its face, but it’s a backward-looking analysis. The problem with the economy is not the economy but the government. Taxation, inflation and regulation make innovation more difficult and less profitable, and the risk of investing in anything new right now is especially high. Still worse, as we become more and more collectivist in our governing philosophy, we eat more and more of the capital “seed stock” from which innovation emerges. In terms of significant scientific and technological innovations, “The West” by now means America and Israel. The rest of the world is free-riding on the innovative capital of those two countries. Turn the United States into a bad copy of Western Europe and progress ultimately stops. This will will have unhappy consequences in consumer electronics, but in medicine it will result in millions of potentially-avoidable deaths.
January 4, 2010 — 4:46 pm
Greg Swann says:
On the other hand, the rumored Apple table computer is cool. If it fits the profile implied by the rumors, it’s going to be an upsized iPhone. That’s beyond cool, since Apple has cultivated an entirely new network of software developers with the iPhone SDK. If all goes as rumored, we should have a whole new computing platform — with lots and lots of supercheap apps available for it from the day it launches.
Inlookers: Imagine what kind of world you would live in without the parasitic weight of government, without the opportunity costs it imposes on the economy, and without the compound interest costs of thousands of years of arbitrary and corrupt “drag” governments have imposed upon the human mind. We are on the cusp of the singularity, and this may be the best explanation of why statists are so frantic, right now, to enslave everyone everywhere. My take, always, is that they can’t enslave us if they can’t catch us. Brilliant human minds have put us right at the threshold of being beyond coercion. The sanest thing we can do, as individuals and as a species, is to get the hell out of their way.
January 4, 2010 — 4:59 pm
rob says:
Hyperbole.
We already know right now how to save millions of lives-reduce the 66% obesity rate in the US, thereby eradicating the diabetes and cardiovascular disease epidemics that are consuming our health care dollars at a logorithmic rate.
We also already know how to do this: stop overconsumption and exercise.
Lifestyle choices will always trump technology(speaking on a population basis, not the one case of rare cancer).
Available technology is probably making us more sloth, increasing the Food, Inc supply, and paradoxically worsening the grim prognosis.
We are not even in the top 20 of life expectancy if born this year.
January 4, 2010 — 5:04 pm
Damon Chetson says:
I’d argue with a few things in your first comment, but Israel, with it’s rampant socialism and collectivization?
January 4, 2010 — 5:22 pm
Greg Swann says:
> but Israel, with it’s rampant socialism and collectivization?
Maths, sciences, medicine and especially hi-tech. Genius for genius, pure and applied research are amazing in Israel, as are that tiny nation’s VC-funded start-ups. It remains to be seen if the phenomenon will survive this generation of scientists.
I’m a Roman Catholic by birth, an atheist by creed and a Hellenist by disposition, but, after Socrates and Leonidas, the great benefactors of human life on earth have been Jewish by a wide margin. If you subtract Jews from the American and European scientific communities, there’s not a lot left. Take away the Asians as well and math and physics are dead. No one likes to talk about this stuff, because we all want to affect to pretend that we believe that genius is equally distributed among the races. It’s not — and cultural conditions may matter more even than genes. Reflect that the Islamic semites are largely genetically identical to Jewish semites. And yet compare the relative distribution of Nobel prizes. Jews represent a very tiny fraction of one percent of the Earth’s population, yet they account for more than 20% of all Nobel prizes awarded.
Israel has no friends, which is especially sad given that Israel is a much better friend to America and to the American ideals than is America itself, right now. But the tragedy of an annihilation of Israel by Iran will be felt far beyond the Middle East. In destroying Israel, we will destroy a huge proportion of the Earth’s super-geniuses, the irreplaceable individuals who have been dragging us out of our preferred haunts in the mud and the garbage since long before Socrates trod the Agora.
January 4, 2010 — 7:04 pm
Damon Chetson says:
I don’t have the same impression of Israel’s economy or society, or from talking to my wife and in-laws who live there, or from what little I’ve read about its society and economy. Its VC firms – state supported as they in significant respects are – could illustrate the point that in a very socialized society, with a national health service, state managed development, you can still see significant technological advances.
I’ll leave the rest of the comment – with which I have significant disagreements – for a friendly conversation over a coffee or a beer. Catherine and I are planning a trip to Phoenix in the Spring and I’d love to catch up!
January 5, 2010 — 7:32 am
James Boyer says:
I kind of agree with Greg, the problem is with the government, but I see a different problem then Greg sees.
I see a large group of the so called “conservative politically” elected officials who seem very motivated to sell off or give away US industry, for the gain of a privileged few. Oh they are not doing it for the heck of it but the wonderful lobbyists ensure that they get a little of the gain as well.
Would be nice if they put their energies into building up the USA, making it stronger economically and otherwise, rather then going for the quick buck and to heck with the future or the rest.
January 5, 2010 — 1:31 pm
Keahi Pelayo says:
I have been looking forward to Apples announcement. I hope it is all it is supposed to be.
Aloha,
Keahi
January 5, 2010 — 3:03 pm