Okay, so far this morning, the market has reacted in a very volatile but not significantly changed manner to the jobs report. Essentially the jobs report came in pretty much where the market expected.
So, did I call it wrong by recommending a shorter term lock and a long term float guideline yesterday? I don’t think so for a couple of reasons:
- We’ve passed the major economic hurdle for the next few weeks without any news that is going to significantly lower rates. Between that and the fact that the new Reg Z rules essentially require locking in your rate at least 1 1/2 weeks before closing, it makes sense, if you are closing soon, to grab a rate and be done with it.
- One of the “big guys” at PIMCO was on CNBC this morning talking about how this is a “sugar high” rally that is based on inventory and cost control and stimulus funding (isn’t that what stimulus is supposed to do?) but that it won’t last. When reality hits, the stock market will adjust and the adjustment won’t be pretty. That has two potential options: 1) It would force money into the bond market driving down rates, or 2) It could cause money to jump to cash (remember last fall?) and everything would be really ugly. So I expect there is still some lower rate potential in the next 60 to 90 days.
Have a good weekend!
Thanks!
Tom Vanderwell
Robert Worthington says:
Tom, point #2 is well understood. Our economy is a temporary very short term fix. The market will reflex in a few years, what is to come. Think about it, with this stimulis we are misrepresenting a misrepresented market in the first place. Slow strong as a mountain growth is superior to a false economy. It’s finally caught up to us.
September 5, 2009 — 9:50 pm