Our helpful friends at the NAR have apparently sent out press releases about the increase in home sales in the second quarter being a sign of a “recovery.”
I saw this on MSN today (yes, I look at MSN):
WASHINGTON – U.S. home sales grew in the second quarter in 39 states, another sign that the ailing housing market is finally coming to life.
Total quarterly sales rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million, from 4.58 million in the first quarter, but were still about 3 percent below a year ago, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. – MSN Home sales grew in second quarter in 39 states
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for a recovery. I would love to see a recovery. Did I mention that really strong sales would be great? The issue for me is that sales that are still 3% below a year ago doesn”t look like a recovery to me.
Yes, sales are higher than the first quarter of 2009. However, around here, second quarter sales are always higher than first quarter sales. I would wager that third quarter sales will be above second quarter sales, as always, too. But that doesn’t mean they will be above the third quarter of last year.
Help me here, what am I missing? With help like this from the NAR, it’s no wonder folks don’t trust Realtors.
Scott Cowan says:
I often wonder the same thing when I see stats for that compare negatively or positively the growth of anything unless we are comparing the same period of time against the same period of time for another year. This report looks makes about as much sense as Toy sales were up in December vs. August it’s not relevant information.
In our area 2nd quarter numbers are almost always ( I refuse to say always) up over 1st. quarter numbers. Any consumer with any amount of intelligence could see that this is just a spin on information designed to tell us to “remain calm, all is well” I don’t like it when any association that I am a member of (whether by choice or by force) speaks out an makes me look foolish because I am a member. Yet another example of NAR’s mismanagement of our profession.
August 12, 2009 — 5:48 pm
Don Reedy says:
Know who this guy is?
Lawrence Yun
If the name doesn’t ring a bell, it’s because you were lucky enough to never, ever, ever pay attention to the crap they put out at NAR. Yun is NAR’s economist, who up until they were bringing in thousands of dying patients still insisted that housing would never go in the tank.
Look, there is NO recovery yet. Anyone who has worked in the real estate industry for long enough to put a thought on paper knows that our business is cyclical. Of course we’re selling more homes now. It’s summer. Kids and families are moving into new schools. The summer itch hits every year, without a hitch, and always ups the number of sales. Let’s see how we spin the “recovery” once we get into January and February.
And Al, I know you thought you had to say it, but you really didn’t. We all want a recovery, but clicking our heels together and chanting “there’s no place like home”, like NAR, just plain pisses me off.
Oh, and by the way, NAR wants me to spend $25 to come and spend a few hours with Mr. Yun and some of his cronies down in San Diego next week. I won’t go unless you send both Jeff Brown and me $50 so we can hit the single malt bar directly afterward.
August 12, 2009 — 7:23 pm
David Losh says:
This mornings report had Zillows top ten and bottom ten places to buy and sell Real Estate. San Diego is a boomin’ because of foreclosures. You can spin anything.
Yun had a segment in the report where he was sure we had turned a corner.
I’m telling sellers they need to list for less and they point to Yun’s report that everything is dandy.
August 12, 2009 — 8:56 pm
Bob says:
Show the sellers Deutsch Bank’s report where they expect 48% of ALL US mortgages to be under water in 2011. The more foreclosures that sell, the more prices don’t recover. When you factor in the tax consequences and deficiencies on top of everything else, there is no way anyone can claim there is a recovery on the horizon unless they are smoking crack or just have no clue about the underlying economic landmines strewn about the countryside.
August 12, 2009 — 9:44 pm
Thomas Johnson says:
The summer itch hits every year, without a hitch, and always ups the number of sales.
The itch is not just an itch, it is corporate relocation season which also bolsters the higher end homes as executives move to minimize familial disruption. I am not a RE quant, but my understanding of my market tells me that when executives are on the move, it also causes a spike in the median price, because anybody who gets gets a relo deal is upper management and those folks probably have pretty nice cribs.
I think NAR has a standard July press release “Median prices are up!”.
August 13, 2009 — 7:54 am
Al Lorenz says:
I probably wouldn’t find this so irritating if being member of the local, and national chapters, of the NAR wasn’t a requirement to be a member of our MLS. It makes the Realtor logo a badge of shame.
August 13, 2009 — 8:35 am
Petra Norris says:
Although NAR reported encouraging numbers and sales are up in my hometown too, we are still lagging prices from the previous years. The numbers of foreclosure filings and unemployment rates are still high and if those numbers don’t shrink, I suspect prices continue to lag. We will see!
August 13, 2009 — 10:16 am
Doug Quance says:
I haven’t written anything on my blog for weeks… because there is no good news to report.
I expect the real estate market to drop for the next two years… and the economy to be soft during that period.
When someone can show me why I am wrong – I’ll listen.
August 13, 2009 — 10:26 am
Deryk says:
Gotta agree with your post above Doug. We are closing sales…but lots of foreclosures, short sales, lease/purchase, can’t sell it let’s lease it, bottom of the barrel transactions going on here.
Still a lot of foreclosures in process that have yet to hit the market too.
Summer season almost over here and we are already feeling a slow down in activity. It will be interesting to see what the next 90 days brings.
August 13, 2009 — 4:34 pm
Jacquie Cliff says:
There is so much spin going on with these reports that it is enough to make a person car sick. One day I am seeing reports that ‘all is lost’ and the next ‘things are looking better!’
The reality is that things aren’t better yet and this will take some time to recover from. People need jobs back, our inventories need to get cleared out, the short sales need to be processed and the lenders have to start making loans again. That is a big list to get done before things will be right again.
August 14, 2009 — 7:05 am