This nests pretty deep, so hang on tight. First, SFHomeBlog.com cites The Walkthrough weblog at the New York Times, which in turn quotes a letter received from the The Marlin Real Estate Bubble weblog. Here is the letter:
I’ve lost my faith, at least for Marin County. Despite all reason and rationality to the contrary, I am no longer so sure that Marin County will succumb to a collapsing housing bubble. I’m actually starting to think that somehow Marin (and maybe the Bay Area at large) is not subject to the same laws of economics as everywhere else. Seriously. This contrarian is “throwing in the towel” and capitulating for the present (which must mean the collapse is on the verge of happening). I dunno, maybe I’ll get over it and start blogging again tomorrow but as of today I am so discouraged that I can’t bring myself to it.
Anyway, the point of this email is that my blog is going silent for a while. If Marin starts to tank then I’ll resume blogging to document the downfall and to rub it directly in the face of Marin hubris and arrogance (and I’ll still be compiling charts during the silent period so that I can show them in the future). I just wanted other bloggers to know why my blog is going silent for a while so that you could decide whether or not to keep linking. I won’t ever take the blog down as there are good resources there.
Unless you can talk me into believing again what must be true, that Marin is not special…
SFHomeBlog’s take:
Perhaps he finally realized that real estate really is local and there are places (like San Francisco) where demand always exists. We’re seeing a different market from last year, but it’s nowhere near a ‘bubble’, and in my world, I’m not seeing anything but a good, balanced market.
For some people, the sky is always falling, and they refuse to consider that real estate might not fit into their Templates of Doom. In addition to persistent demand for particular locations, home sellers in a buyer’s market are a lot less time-sensitive than are home buyers in a seller’s market. In the latter case, the longer buyers delay acting, the greater their costs — which is why a true seller’s market is so frenzied. But in a buyer’s market, if sellers stand fast, it might turn out that they will suffer a significant loss. But they also may do better by waiting. Or the marginal cost of waiting for a better offer may be less than the loss ensuing from a too-hasty sale. Or they may elect to stay put for a year or two longer, to wait out the market. Truly desperate sellers can fare poorly in a buyer’s market. Most of the others have options that are eminently worth exploring.
I can make any number of other excellent arguments — local and global — why the real estate market will not pop like the dot.com bubble. But this will not silence the bubble bloviators.
Want proof? After two days off, the Marlin Real Estate Bubble weblog is back to breathlessly foretelling imminent doom…
