Kicking this back up to the top because it fits so well with the recent posts from Al Lorenz and Doug Quance. –GSS
I’ve understood since I was 18 or so how real estate develops organically, in a truly free market, so I have known all my adult life how horribly the real estate market has been disrupted by the idiotic intrusions of Rotarian Socialism. It’s all about who can steal a few bucks by strong-arming his neighbors, and no one ever stops to wonder what gets mucked up in the process.
So: I said:
tell me in twenty-five words or fewer why relatively fungible non-commercial real estate should ever be thought of as an investment.
And Brian Brady said, in a comment to that post:
When it’s a 1-4 unit property, held for investment purposes.
Ten words. What am I missing?
What he’s missing is the definition of commercial real estate. If Brian owned 1-4 rental tuxedoes, should he call that his personal wardrobe? Just because the tax laws engender dumb distinctions, we don’t have to ignore reality, do we? Rental property — including a solitary rental house — is commercial real estate. It is owned in pursuit of profit, not as the residence of the owner.
So again:
tell me in twenty-five words or fewer why relatively fungible non-commercial real estate should ever be thought of as an investment.
The answer is that it should not. Hundreds of thousands of elderly people are going to suffer because — at the bidding of the National Association of Realtors — they took their eye off the ball. There is nothing rare about a tract home. If it gains in value ahead of other consumer goods, there has to be a cause — usually one that originates in the criminal use of force against people innocent of all wrong-doing.
As we have discussed, the precipitating cause of the real estate boom in the southwest was criminal land-use restrictions in the costal metroplex of Southern California. The land there is not inherently scarce, but governments made its development difficult or impossible, driving prices up faster than they would have gone otherwise. Investors falsely believed that their gains were demand-driven, so they took the boom to cities with abundant land and no significant land-use restrictions — Riverside County, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Phoenix, etc. — causing massive overbuilding in those markets.
If we had a truly free market in real estate — if government kept its nose out of private property issues, including transportation, and if taxes were zero or something very close to zero — ordinary housing would not gain or lose value any faster or slower than clothing or shoes or any other semi-durable utilitarian goods.
Away from significant historic and architect-built homes, and away from extremely non-fungible land like Malibu Beach or Camelback Mountain, housing should tend to lose value as it ages, with the move-up process into newer homes being a status symbol of the wealthy. This is the way things worked in all the cities of Europe and America prior to the twentieth century — when the NAR perfected Rotarian Socialism.
The interruption of this organic process of hand-me-down housing is the essential cause of homelessness, just as an illustration of how far-reaching are the consequences of the criminal use of force against innocent people. And, of course, almost all of us live in structures that are shoddy and widely-separated, with almost nothing of the kind of metropolitan urbanity we associate with cities that developed before governments criminalized commerce.
The fact that the once freedom-loving American people fell deeply in love with the use of force against innocent people is not solely the fault of the NAR, but you can bet those Babbits had their hands in the till every step of the way. Zoning makes our cities bland and stupid, but “free” roads make them ugly and unmanageable. We have strayed so far from the idea of capitalism — no matter how much we denounce the consequences of Rotarian Socialism under capitalism’s name — that we actually forget the first principle of capitalist enterprises: They must show a profit.
Since Rome, at least, roads have not been privately owned, but a profit-seeking road would not be built on a whim, as a politically-favorable connection between two equally-unprofitable farms, for instance. A profit-seeking road would surely serve many disparate profit-seeking purposes, perhaps so many that you might not identify it primarily as being a road. A real road is real estate, and access to goods and services and delivery of goods and services are all intermingled on what is, in fact, a full-blown linear bourse.
I am famously opposed to taxpayer-extorted mass-transit boondoggles, but these idiotic swindles only exist because the NAR and other Rotarian Socialists have so successfully made war on the ideas of freedom and private property. Do you see? If all real estate development has to show a profit, structures will be a lot more vertical and our footprint on the land will be a lot smaller. In that circumstance, virtually all personal transportation would be undertaken by the best mass transit system ever devised — cheap in capital costs, non-polluting and with salutary health benefits for every patron. What is it? It’s called walking — something that can now only be done in cities that were developed before governments started pushing innocent people around at gunpoint.
One of the things we love about the internet is that it connects people with incredibly arcane interests, but this is also a function that was once common in cities, before they were redrawn as vast collections of strip malls and wedding-cake houses by the NAR.
I could go on forever, but there’s no real point to it. We paved paradise to put up a parking lot, and we not only didn’t learn our lesson, we’re hell bent on sliding ever closer to full-blown totalitarianism. There is no one who has ever been to the Department of Motor Vehicles who can claim not to know what to expect when medical practitioners are enslaved. And yet off we go, like lemmings in lockstep, swearing to anyone who will listen that the smartest people we will ever know are going to take orders from morons with guns.
We live in horror of freedom, and we will stop at nothing to eradicate it from the earth. We will finally manage to build vertically when, like the Nazis and the Communists before us, the murdered bodies of our neighbors and friends, brothers and sisters, parents and children start to pile up. And in that light, it seems kind of silly of me to maunder about what might have been in real estate development.
But still… When you’re wandering through The City in London or through the Battery in New York or The Loop in Chicago, when you find yourself wondering why those old towns are so vibrant and vital and fun and why modern cities are so boring, so draining, so forgettable — the answer is the difference between freedom and force.
It took a hundred years for the NAR and its fellow Rotarian Socialists to screw up America, and, unfortunately, that’s a process that rages on apace. But if you could imagine our reversing course, it would probably take two or three centuries to undo all the damage. Everything could be so much better than it is — and we haven’t even talked about the compound-interest value of all the opportunity costs associated with systemic, epidemic criminality in government. But, for a start, everything could be so much better in real estate…
Dave Shafer says:
Ok so the interstate highway system created the environmental boondoggle of sprawl (surburbia)post WWII. And re developers got together with government officials to create land use restrictions that increased the value of homes in certain areas (and enriched them and society while doing it). And old school cities are your preferred living arrangement. But what of that created the fact my wife’s parents, children of Irish immigrants, moved from Dorchester (Boston) to Indian Country (suburbia Canton)as their relatives called it. If you asked them (and I have) you would not hear about being forced there for economic reasons, or taxation, or anything economic, but you would hear the story of America. They wanted to get away from the tight knit community they grew up in because they found it constricting. Both were from large families where everyone in the community knew who they where from the day of their birth to the day they moved out to the suburbs. Hell, my wife’s mother was the only sibling (of 10)that learned to drive. And guess what of the 18 siblings these two had, the most successful are universally the one’s that left Dorchester, to go out on their own, make their own way. They bought a home that was about as different from the triple decker they grew up in as possible. There were no room for relatives to move in! People bought into the Levittown’s of the world not because of some arcane liberal economic policy, nor because the government has been priveleging some businesses over others, but because they were excited about starting over (after WWII), being free to move about, free to make their own communities and associate with folks they wanted to, not who happened to immigrate with their ancestors or who happened to be born to parents in their part of town. They moved into those stick houses because they were not connected to other people’s houses, and by inference other peoples lives/problems.
Its the same reason 100 years before people moved from the farms to the cities. Opportunity calls!
Yea, I hate the strip mall, surburban life that I grew up in as much as anyone, and am part of the urban revitalation of St. Petersburg, living 1 mile from the downtown center which is full of life now-a-days, but you can’t do anything but respect the modern human need to move out on your own and create your own life, whatever that dream is.
That is what your post misses with your economic determinism, people weren’t forced to move from “the city” to Levittown, they embraced it, loved it, wanted it. Just as people apparently wanted to move to Phoenix for its climate and walled communities full of life for retired folks.
My parents retired, moved to Florida, found a condo they liked, bought it, lived in it for 28 years, had a active social life that at times revolved around the condo complex, picked oranges and grapefruits, took part in the politics of it, watched it grow, watched it become something other than a 55+ community, and died in it (mom). They grew up on a farm in Indiana (dad) and London (mom), traveled the world, raised a son, reinvented themselves several times, owned homes in five different states, and generally lived the human dream (as they saw it). There are two dreams from two sets of different folks all made possible by yearning to get away from what and where they grew up! You can blame it on that generation of folks I guess, the majority of which apparently agreed with them.
Levittown was built on the back of the interstate highway system, as were many of the neighborhoods I spent time living in. Now, some people idealize those “carefree” days in those neighborhoods.
America’s calling card was always space, privacy, lots of it, and we still pray to that god in certain respects. Yes, some like myself choose other styles, living close to a vibrant downtown in a small home, but I don’t believe you could convince the majority that the way they live is wrong or that our government somehow perverted their true dreams into a surburban nighmare.
Levittown theory link:
http://tigger.uic.edu/~pbhales/Levittown/
So much for my ramblings! Have a good weekend.
February 27, 2009 — 2:40 pm
Sean Purcell says:
And yet off we go, like lemmings in lockstep, swearing to anyone who will listen that the smartest people we will ever know are going to take orders from morons with guns.
A true wordsmith…
February 27, 2009 — 8:08 pm
kevin pellatiro says:
Honestly, how did it take so long to find you guys? This crazy, overstated, intelligent inspiration for the standards you set is troubling – but gripping. Thank you, AND you’re scaring me.
February 28, 2009 — 7:22 am
Greg Swann says:
Hi, Kevin.
Nice to see you. We’ve been waiting for you. 😉
February 28, 2009 — 8:01 am
Mark Madsen says:
My grandfather has always told me to purchase a house to live in and never get caught up thinking that it is an investment. He just sold his home in Tulsa for about the same amount he purchased it for 22 years ago.
My grandmother on my dad’s side sold her San Francisco home in 2001 for significantly more than her mom bought it for in the 1920’s. Doesn’t really matter though because she lived there long enough to raise my dad in that home as well.
Two different outcomes for real estate, but neither sets of my grandparents looked at their homes as investments.
I live in Las Vegas and have been part of the boom and bust since 2000 as a loan officer. Looking back, I finally understand what my family was talking about with regards to prioritizing family, shelter, and real estate investing.
Greg, most of your words were pretty deep, and I’d like to learn more so that I an have an educated discussion about the political points that you brought up. However, I understand the false sense of “investment” security that you are talking about when government controls the supply and demand of land. Well, kind of.
In Vegas, we have water, environmental concerns, and city infrastructure that the local government had to protect. I understand their responsibility to control supply, but I don’t think demand can be blamed on any one entity. I mean, the NAR TV ads didn’t cause people to run out and buy a bunch of homes to flip. If anything, they just helped exploit the greed that had taken over a lot of good people.
I did watch developers pop out crappy homes as quickly as they could between 2002 and 2006. It was a game of musical chairs that everyone knew would come to a painful end. We bought primary residences for the purpose of selling them to the next move up buyer, hoping that they were the ones who got stuck when the music ended. Well, the music is over and some homes have lost upwards of 64% equity over the past year.
I’m making it a point this month to go back through my past blog articles and other client literature so that I can reevaluate my message.
“Investment Opportunity” – “Tax Benefits” – “Secure your family’s future” – “Own the American Dream” – “Investment” – “Equity” and other related rhetoric will be either better defined with a disclaimer, or removed.
Damn, while I believe being active in this new world of transparent web 2.0 is beneficial for all people, sometimes it is way easier to just play the ignorant card and be a victim with everyone else.
mm
March 8, 2009 — 1:01 pm
Al Lorenz says:
So, Greg isn’t going for any smart growth with his new urbanism!
Thanks Greg!
Mark, your intelligence only feels like a curse sometimes!
August 10, 2009 — 8:06 pm
Greg Swann says:
> So, Greg isn’t going for any smart growth with his new urbanism!
It just kills me when I think of all the opportunities we miss out on because we’re so focused on theft — as a civilization — rather than production. Here is me, from BloodhoundBlog’s past, on how cities might develop in a world without the camouflaged crime syndicate we call our sacred government: Using Las Vegas Boulevard as an example, here is a completely different way of thinking about real estate.
August 10, 2009 — 8:30 pm
Teri says:
(Did I really not comment the first time?)
>We live in horror of freedom, and we will stop at nothing to eradicate it from the earth.
So true. I’ve been wondering about this for the past 29 years. Why do we prefer to live fearful lives, creating and becoming willing participants in a system of self-inflicted coercion? It’s as if we have no choice, but we do, and it’s sublimely simple choice to make.
August 10, 2009 — 9:21 pm
Dan Homan says:
I get your point, but lets take it all the way . . . NAR periodically runs ads declaring “your home is your biggest investment.” If tey really believed that they would not have sat back while ignorant members pushed openly bogus scenerios telling folks “this home is a great investment” and “deductible interest and taxes” all the while being clueless about investment principles. The fact is 9 out of 10 agents cnan’t do the basic business math the other 2/3 don’t bother with it.
As recent as a year and a half ago NAR ran ads sugesting that property appreciates at about 10% per year. This would mean that property doubles in value every 7.5 years. This is not just wrong, but irresponsible. Most of the criteria a serious investor considers can’t be discussed with agents because of fair housing laws. If we can’t help potential buyers with basic due diligence, we are reduced to bengorder takers. I think the stupidest thing that I have heard is that the $8,000 tax credit makes any home a good or great investment. I have never heard a realror(R) tell a person that they would be better off renting unless they have bad credit.
I can’t quantify a number but during the two or years of run up in prices, it would be safe to say at least 80% of the homes sold the buyers would have been beter off renting. I base this on the ratio of cost to annual rent. After about 10 – 12 to one and most would be better off renting and investing the difference between mortgage and rental payment in the bank at 2% per year.
The next to last thing we need is government intervention. The last thing we need is the NAR calling for government intervention.
August 10, 2009 — 11:13 pm
Robert Worthington says:
Greg, you covered your point perfectly. Its great reading your blogs as I am a capitalist as well. Socialism in any form is bad news. Capitalism or the free market system is slowly disappearing. Like Ross Perro would say, “its a shame”.
August 11, 2009 — 12:16 pm
Greg Swann says:
> Capitalism or the free market system is slowly disappearing.
We’ll learn better, either this side of the Dark Age or the other.
Meanwhile: Who among us can have a drink in a hotel room and not say a silent prayer for the people of Manitowoc?
August 11, 2009 — 12:54 pm
Michael Cook says:
Greg,
Unlike the masses, I am going to disagree on this one. Particularly because your home should be a great investment. It is where you live and spend most of your free time. The sweat equity you put in your home is valuable. The more you put in, the more valuable it is, no?
By thinking about your home as an investment and making smart choices around improvements, you can truly create value. I am not saying you should leverage it through the roof, but I am saying you should manage it like an investment. In the most capitalist economy, this would seem like very prudent advice, no?
What is a business or investment, but making smart choices around an idea? Or putting your energy and efforts into making something more valuable to someone else? Why should you not look at your home in this way and then why is your home not an investment?
August 12, 2009 — 2:24 pm
Greg Swann says:
> What is a business or investment, but making smart choices around an idea?
A business sells access to physical or intellectual capital in pursuit of profits. Treating ordinary tract homes as if they can somehow accrue collector value will almost always be a vain effort. The idea of your home as an “investment” is a con job sold to Americans by the National Association of Realtors, partially buttressed by legislative chicanery to steal funds funds from other pockets in order to stuff some of that money back into the housing pocket. You can answer your questions by doing as I did in the essay cited: Substitute your pedestrian shoes or vehicles for your home and then tell me what expectation you have for them to gain in value through the process of wear and tear and economic obsolescence.
> The sweat equity you put in your home is valuable.
The Labor Theory of Value, straight out of Marx: Elaborate mudpies are worth more than plain mudpies. False.
> By thinking about your home as an investment and making smart choices around improvements, you can truly create value.
In the right neighborhood, you can retain or sustain value against the forces of obsolescence. In the wrong neighborhood, it doesn’t matter what you do.
> Why should you not look at your home in this way and then why is your home not an investment?
Because, no matter what, your investments of time, money and intellectual capital to produce wealth are almost always better spent on actual wealth-producing activities. It is certainly possible to make money improving and reselling undervalued homes. It’s called flipping. Because of the capital gains exclusion, you can flip your own residence at a profit, provided you wait 24-60 months to reap the gains. But this is not what most people do with their homes. They simply live in them. There is no reason — outside of criminal machinations by government — why an ordinary tract home should gain in value faster than any other utilitarian semi-durable consumable asset — like shoes or cars.
And that is what I said:
What part of that argument do you dispute? This is why it’s valuable to quote the text you’re contending with, to find out if you actually have a contention.
A residence is not an investment. That’s simply an obvious statement of fact. And what’s so much worse, whether or not a residence is an investment is not what the essay is about.
August 12, 2009 — 5:10 pm
Brian Brady says:
“If Brian owned 1-4 rental tuxedoes, should he call that his personal wardrobe?”
I forgot about this analogy the first time and almost missed it the second time.
“A residence is not an investment. That’s simply an obvious statement of fact.”
Nor is a business suit a rental tuxedo. Nice work.
August 15, 2009 — 10:07 pm