Although this post discusses the election in general, it is not meant to instigate a general discussion of the election. It is… a non-political post on politics.
In talking to various people about the upcoming presidential election and their preferences, I was stuck by an odd response I kept hearing – in various forms – over and over again. I decided to do an extensive, double blind study – exhausting all resources in order to generate a valid conclusion. Following this study, I now believe we are witnessing a new election dynamic (or at the very least a dynamic not previously seen in our life time).
Editor’s Note: By “extensive” I mean I asked anyone who walked into, out of or near my office doorway. I did not actually go the whole distance and get up off my seat. Also, by “double blind” I mean to say neither I nor the person I interviewed had a clue what we were talking about. I imagine my idea of “exhaustive” needs no further explanation…
In all seriousness, when I meet someone voting for either candidate I ask them a straightforward question: “Why are you voting for that candidate?” Even though I spoke with a full spectrum of ideologies, I heard a similarity in all their responses. If the person was an Obama supporter they would provide answers such as “four more years of Bush… disastrous deregulation by the current administration… conservative duplicity with Wall Street” and so on. If the person was a McCain supporter they would provide answers such as “tax and spend Democrats… redistribution of wealth… lack of liberal strength in the face of terrorism” and so on. I rarely got an affirmative answer with regard to their candidate of choice. In other words: they were not voting for someone so much as voting against someone else.
That people cast their vote for someone they are not particularly excited about is not new. Nor is casting a vote solely in opposition to the other candidate. What is groundbreaking (and, so far as I know, not being reported) is that this year, for the first time ever, the percentage of people voting against the other party appears to be greater than the percentage voting for their party. A strange little dynamic: a populace divided not by what they believe in but rather by what they do not believe in.
- Does this reflect a jadedness now become pervasive?
- Is it indicative of a society operating mostly on fear and anger?
- When one votes for a candidate and that candidate loses, it is not so difficult to envision uniting behind the new leader for the greater good of the nation. But when one votes against a candidate who subsequently goes on to win, well… that is a very different perspective indeed. It leaves little room for reconciliation.
I am not sure what the ramifications are when a nation crosses this tipping point in elections; when a majority of voters cast votes to reflect their enmity rather than their alliance. I don’t know what affect it will have, but somehow I doubt it will be good.
Missy Caulk says:
I vote for the platform that most closely reflects my values. The candidates come and go and the President is only one person involved in getting bills signed into law.
I know folks vote the lesser of two evils. Heck people vote for all kinds of reasons.
October 26, 2008 — 7:47 am
Eric Bramlett says:
The good news is that the public likes both candidates (almost record favorability ratings,) so I think we’ll be able to unite behind whoever is elected. If history is any indicator, either candidate will move even closer to the middle after they’re sworn in, which will help the country even more.
October 26, 2008 — 8:17 am
Teri L says:
Interesting.
Perhaps why I’m having problems this year- I can’t find someone to vote for, and don’t enjoy voting against.
October 26, 2008 — 8:19 am
Chris says:
I just registered with the Libertarian Party and will be voting for the Barr-Root ticket.
http://www.lp.org/barr-root
The demopublicans have messed this country up enough. Its about time those parties were thrown into the dust bin of history.
October 26, 2008 — 8:24 am
John Sabia says:
I would agree. I am not particularly for McCain, but I am totally against Obama.
October 26, 2008 — 9:19 am
Eric Blackwell says:
@Bramlett- I am with Teri on this. I am finding myself voting against rather than for.
One worries me about too much big government and too much government intervention.
The other one scares AND worries me for the same reason.
In that sense, I am Joe. I am trying to get a small business going. More government = PITA
Eric
October 26, 2008 — 9:21 am
Mitch Ribak says:
I’m a big believer in capitalism and smaller government. Although I’m not a huge McCain fan, I’m not into another Trillion Dollar corrupt government program coming into our lives. Unfortunately, we are at a turning point in this country. I would have loved to vote for a Democrat this year, but they gave me a Socialist as a candidate. I’m just ready to go there in my life.
October 26, 2008 — 9:34 am
Brian Brady says:
“I would have loved to vote for a Democrat this year, but they gave me a Socialist as a candidate. I’m just ready to go there in my life.”
I was just talking about this last night. I think the last Democratic President was John F. Kennedy.
October 26, 2008 — 10:39 am
Mitch Ribak says:
That’s true. I grew up a Democrat and have turned into a Republican over my life time. However, I have voted for Democrats and Republicans. However, at this time I can’t accept an Obama, Pelosi and Reid government. It scares me to death!
October 26, 2008 — 11:00 am
Sean Purcell says:
Eric Bramlett,
Interesting link. I have to wonder where these favorable ratings are coming from, as my anecdotal experience suggests the opposite. I normally hear something similar to what we have seen in the comments right here on this post: “I don’t like so-and-so, but he’s much better than the alternative.” That does not suggest 60% favorability ratings.
In any case, it is a welcome poll.
October 26, 2008 — 11:15 am
Robert Kerr says:
Interesting link. I have to wonder where these favorable ratings are coming from, as my anecdotal experience suggests the opposite. I normally hear something similar to what we have seen in the comments right here on this post: “I don’t like so-and-so, but he’s much better than the alternative.” That does not suggest 60% favorability ratings.
When Nixon won in ’72, when Reagan won in ’84, and when Bush won in ’04, some people were amazed: “How did this happen? I don’t know anyone who voted for him!”
The last incident was immortalized in HBO’s “Left of the Dial” as an Air America employee watched in shock as the election results came in.
She didn’t know anyone who voted for George Bush!
In every case, the people who were surprised failed to realize that their own self-selected sample was biased.
And that’s exactly what’s happening here. Your anecdotal evidence does not represent the voting population.
Obama is winning in a landslide and that’s obvious once you step outside your own social and business circles.
October 26, 2008 — 12:23 pm
J Boyer Chatham NJ says:
I think this more reflects how both of these parties select their candidate. both of them force a candidate upon the electorate which is not someone who the general public would want. So we are stuck with a left wing sissy, or a right wing nut job almost every time.
October 26, 2008 — 2:32 pm
Sean Purcell says:
Robert,
Pointing out past winners who were not ahead in the polls seems an odd way to make your point.
I am not familiar with the phenomenon you mentioned (I am not a political scientist) but I have a thought. When people are suprised by the winner because “no one I know voted for them” I think I would call that “the embarrassment phenomenon.” People may have been embarrassed to vote for Nixon (but did anyway) and they may have been embarrassed to vote for Reagan (but did anyway). Although are you sure it was ’84 and not ’80? Can’t see how anyone thought Reagan would not be reelected; but to initially elect an “actor” with an age issue, that I can see.
In any case, quite the opposite is happening here. There is no embarrassment in voting for Obama. If anything it is the trendy thing to do. One might even wonder if we are seeing the reverse of what you described. If the politically correct thing to do is vote for Obama, how many who give that answer will actually do so in the privacy of the voting booth? Should be interesting.
Your comment about a “landslide” is comical given the current polling, but you have every right to express a bias (you are not the press).
Now, if we could, let’s go back to my original point. I didn’t say I was surprised regarding the selections made by those with whom I spoke. Nor did I discuss what candidate was chosen more often. For all you know, the majority of people I spoke with may have chosen Obama. Knowing nothing of my social and business circles, your last two statements are poorly informed.
What I wrote about was the surprising percentage of people expressing their vote as a function of negative bias rather than positive bias.
Please try again… you may have better luck if you lose the political agenda.
October 26, 2008 — 6:39 pm
Sean Purcell says:
Eric Bramlett,
I have been thinking about your link all day. Very interesting stuff. I have some thoughts on what is happening but I am also curious: are you finding any responses similar to what I am hearing? Are you hearnig a larger than normal percentage express enmity rather than affirmation? If so, how do you reconcile that with the link you shared? If not, why do you think we are having such different experiences.
Here’s my thought on reconciling the two: If, as I have found, we are a nation voting more for who we don’t want than who we do, it may create an interesting population for your study to poll. Depends a lot on the questions asked, but what if the divisiveness is a majority? What if that narrows the field of polled people who will express a favorable rating for either candidate? It might be that as more and more people vote against someone rather than for someone, there are fewer and fewer people willing to give a favorable rating. If this acts in any way as a filter it would follow that the average of the favorability rating will climb within the smaller group of people who are inclined to actually favor a candidate – thus raising his or her favorability ratings.
October 26, 2008 — 6:51 pm