This is my column for this week from the Arizona Republic (permanent link).
This just might be the optimal time to buy a home in Phoenix
Who should be buying residential real estate in Phoenix right now?
If you have been planning to buy a home sometime soon, and if you know for certain that you won’t need to sell it for at least five years, this just might be your magic moment.
Interest rates are still deliciously low, but both current events and long term trends suggest they’re headed higher. You’ll probably have to sell your current home for less than you wanted to, but you’ll be buying your next home at a bargain-basement price.
Sadly, you may not have enough equity in your home to move up. But if you do, there are some amazing homes out there selling for unheard-of prices. Houses that sold for $375,000 in 2005 are going for $175,000 three years later.
If you do have substantial equity in your home, even at today’s prices, moving up now may make a lot of sense. The rules for the capital gains exclusion on primary homes change on January 1st. If you’ve been in your home for more than the last 24 months but fewer than the last 60 months, moving before the end of the year could save you a significant amount of money on your taxes.
It makes sense to me for college students and their parents to snap up condominiums and starter-homes while prices are so low. After the start of the year, if the student holds title, it will take five years to realize the full benefit of the capital gains exclusion — approximately the length of a college career.
First-time home-buyers are taking advantage of this market, as well, with low-down-payment or even nothing-down government-sponsored loans.
Who else should be buying? Investors, of course, but the smart ones have already figured that out. For now, it’s very easy to acquire a premium home in a commuter-friendly suburb that will be cash-flow positive from the first tenant. Investor loans can be hard to obtain, but prices are so low that many investors are simply paying cash.
Technorati Tags: arizona, arizona real estate, phoenix, phoenix real estate, real estate, real estate marketing
Robert Kerr says:
My 2c: These monthly proclamations harm your credibility.
October 18, 2008 — 3:33 pm
Greg Swann says:
> These monthly proclamations harm your credibility.
With whom? People who are buying homes in record numbers?
My two cents: You know nothing about market conditions in Phoenix.
October 18, 2008 — 3:46 pm