Here’s a cute little game for people who think they know a thing or two about real estate…
I’m looking at houses for an investor client who is also a close friend of the family. He picked out a house he was interested in, and, as a matter of course, I ran every comp listing in that subdivision — active, pending and sold — going back to May.
I found ten active listings in that exact floorplan in that same subdivision. Unzillowables be damned, this is as close as you can get to stone identical comps, like little plastic Monopoly houses, each one the twin brother of the next. All of them were built between 2002 and 2004, all by the same builder, of course, all upgraded to some degree, none to the ultimate degree. No premium lots, no view lots, no pools.
What would you expect the spread of prices to be?
You would be wrong, no matter what you said, wrong by a lot. There is actually $115,000 between the highest and lowest priced homes.
The nature of this insane market is that people are still seeking prices for their homes that would have been obscene a year ago, as we neared the end of our housing boom.
This is the range of prices sought for these ten homes:
- $245,000
- $257,900
- $257,900
- $265,000
- $266,355
- $272,000
- $275,000
- $283,900
- $299,900
- $360,000
Here is your challenge:
Go take a look at this particular house and tell me what price it’s selling for.
Anyone can enter. You cannot possibly guess worse than some of these listing agents! It’s like The Price Is Right, just enter your best guesstimate as a comment. We’ll send a great prize to everyone who guesses correctly…
Technorati Tags: arizona, arizona real estate, phoenix, phoenix real estate, real estate, real estate marketing
Dave Barnes says:
Given that the current “owners” have not kept it clean nor staged it, I vote for: $283K because they are delusional.
,dave
October 3, 2006 — 9:35 pm
carefulwithnumbers says:
$299,900 because they think themselves clever.
October 3, 2006 — 11:30 pm
Franz says:
Clueless sellers don’t clean all the crap off their fridge before putting the house on the market. Clueless sellers also don’t have any idea about pricing. I’ll vote for $360,000.
October 4, 2006 — 7:51 am
Debbie Cook says:
They SHOULD be the people asking the $245,000 price. If they really want to sell it. Need to know more info about the other houses. How long have they all been on the market?? Are the interiors better or worse than this one as far as staging, decorating, etc? how many total homes in this subdivision?
October 4, 2006 — 12:12 pm
Christine says:
You did not say that it was actually a price within your range that you gave. You just said that there are 10 active listings – comparable to that home. I actually think that the home is quite nice (Remember that I am from NY) So that home HERE in queens would easily go for 750,000+, with taxes of 5,000 or more depending on lot size. But is AZ – I think that the home is not any of those prices.. I think it was higher..
October 4, 2006 — 5:03 pm
Greg Swann says:
> I think that the home is not any of those prices.
Bob Barker is an honest broker: The home is for sale for one of the prices I named. Scout’s Honor.
October 4, 2006 — 7:25 pm
Lee says:
The $360,000 sale in the neighborhood appears to be anomaly. Most sales are falling in the $258,000 to $275,000 range. The house decor is “Neo-Frathouse”…it could use some help. Upgrades look pretty average.
My guess….$265,000.
October 4, 2006 — 8:02 pm
Jay Thompson says:
Hmmmm. There are two $257,900’s in your list. So statistically speaking, that may be the best bet — 2 out of 10 chance that’s it.
However, there are two numbers there where you’ll find a LOT of homes listed… $245K and $299,900. So odds are really best it’s one of those two.
Since Greg is looking for a home for an investor client, I don’t think he’d be looking at the top end pricing, especially given the spread.
$245K. And possibly a great buy, particularly if all that Purdue stuff does not convey.
October 4, 2006 — 10:57 pm
Christine says:
So Greg – Are you going to give the answer and then the correct answer of what the home SHOULD be priced at…
October 5, 2006 — 11:19 am
Greg Swann says:
Yes. How about tonight? Let’s see if we get any more contestants.
October 5, 2006 — 11:22 am
Helldigger says:
If I were the seller, I would get in front of the declining market to sell before the others listed.
But I wouldn’t use an agent and I would sell to a buyer without an agent and have the advantage.
I would price the house at 237,650.00 and pocket the same amount of money someone else is selling the property for 252,000.00 and paying 6% to do nothing listing agents and cupcake buyers agents.
October 5, 2006 — 12:24 pm
Greg Swann says:
Helldigger, the only thing wrong with your strategy is everything. Ten homes with MLS promotion aren’t selling, so your one house, which no one will know about unless they accidentally drive by your sign, will beat the other ten. More power to you if you can do it. Almost nobody can.
October 5, 2006 — 12:49 pm
Helldigger says:
An MLS promotion only costs 377.00 with an al-a-cart discount listing Broker. You would get the same exposure your listing agent has if you only did that.
Marketing a home with just a sign is moronic, but with multiple free sites and low cost classifieds along with a dynamic flyer and open houses (with cupcakes) will compete with the “do nothing MLS only” listing agent strategy any day.
Get your property online everywhere, have a better price, avoid paying commissions and sell your own property while the others languish in Realtor Dysfunction Hell.
As sellers become more savy in their marketing in this declining market with massive inventory, agent pools are evaporating onto the unemployment line and sellers are finding ways to avoid the greedy whiners.
October 5, 2006 — 2:16 pm
Casey says:
I thought $266355 it was an interesting price , I just came across this game. Very ironic, you have an anti- realtor blogger. What did you do to arouse his interest?
October 5, 2006 — 3:57 pm
Jay Thompson says:
Helldigger wrote: “Get your property online everywhere, have a better price, avoid paying commissions and sell your own property while the others languish in Realtor Dysfunction Hell.”
If you aren’t going to pay a buyer’s agent commission, good luck getting anyone to even look at the house.
And if you do find someone to buy your home who isn’t using an agent, you better hope like hell you get all the contracts, disclosures, inspections, financing, and title work done correctly. If not you can end up spending far far more than all that commission you “saved”….
October 5, 2006 — 7:18 pm
Greg Swann says:
For the most part, y’all liked this house a lot less than I did.
I’m used to occupied homes being cluttered, and, while I agree that’s an impediment to getting them sold, dirt, clutter and bad staging are worth their weight in discounts.
On the other hand, this home has many upgrades — the granite countertops, stereo pre-wiring everywhere, fans in every room, the wrought iron stairway.
If $257,900 is a reasonable market price, and if the sellers had time to wait, I would price ths at $265,000 and wait for someone to fall in love with the granite.
In Ardell’s world, $250,000 would be a better price, because you would catch two lender’s tiers: Qualified to $250,000 and qualified to $275,000.
But Jay Thompson illustrated perfectly how a Realtor thinks, and why a Realtor brings unimagined value to a transaction: The sellers don’t have time to wait, so they’re the lowest-priced of the ten, $245,000, even though they’re at the 80th percentile, at least, in upgrades.
Jay Thompson and Debbie Cook win, but anyone who emails a snailmail address can have a prize for participating.
October 5, 2006 — 7:50 pm
Jay Thompson says:
Whoo Hoo! Being competitive to a fault, I’ll admit it.
I love winning…
October 6, 2006 — 1:23 am
Christine says:
LOL Jay. You are gloating..
October 6, 2006 — 9:10 am