Yesterday as I was waiting in my satellite office for the ‘other Brown’ to show up for a planning session, I laid my book down, taking advantage of the rare opportunity to sit quietly and think, sans any communications devices invented after 1951. I pondered more deeply what a previous morning conversation had reenforced for me.
Since my firm deals with builders and lenders in several states, I’m often privileged to hear what local market experts have to say. Much of the time it falls under the heading of, ‘What the hell?!’, but sometimes you find builders/lenders who’ve really drilled down into their corner of the real estate world. They ignore everything but empirically documented facts. Then with careful, objective analysis, they search for any opportunities hiding behind all the LameStream media’s ongoing fertilizer convention.
The phone call.
One of the builders I especially like and trust, had just hung up with a local lender he both trusted and respected. I’ll cut to the chase here. The lender knows what my firm’s been doing in his state. (For the time being, the lender, builder, and state must remain anonymous, by their request.) We’ve been tearin’ it up. They wanna go off the grid so to speak, setting aside a few boatloads of capital to lend to our clients, (not exclusively) without the constraints of Fannie and Freddie.
The builder? He’s no small fish, but his net worth doesn’t require three commas yet. π His product has been sellin’ itself during this correction. It still is. His biggest problem today? He can’t find enough land — or when he does, a bigger fish plays hardball and shoves him out the door. Most recently he walked away after being under contract. Now that’s hardball.
Also, this builder told me the recent builder surveys in the region as a whole, showed their confidence as an industry had risen almost 20%. Go figure. The lender is willing to revert to classic Old School lending by opting out of the secondary market and keeping these loans. What a concept. This will enable them to loan on a virtually unlimited amount of small investment properties per investor. Why is that such a big deal? Fannie/Freddie have so constricted the real estate investment market, the limit now is a couple properties more than a used Snicker’s Bar. Many are now counting the borrower’s own residence as a mortgage against his limit.
Now my clients will be able to borrow on as many properties in this region as they can prudently qualify for. Define prudent? Sure. Old School underwriting. Fixed rates. Full documentation triple checked from all angles. Up to $5 million per investor. We often have clients able to buy half a dozen properties at a whack. In other words, this is a good thing.
The point is, apparently this incredibly destructive tornado has failed to touch down on the entire continent. It’s local, just like real estate. You can scream ‘cliche’ ’till your voice fails, but it won’t change the facts. There are pockets around the country this tornado has left untouched, relatively speaking.
BawldGuy Axiom: Lenders lend.
BawldGuy Corollary: Old School lenders live to lend another day.
Builders? Again, Old School is the only reason any local/regional builder lasts over three decades and thrives. We do short term business with those suffering from bad judgment. However, they’re in great areas, offering solid product, just bad timing — for them. But it’s the Old School guys with whom we develop long term relationships. There’s a scoop.
I invite you to read my thoughts on this subject. Read the comments, as there are some real nuggets there, from some very smart folks. Turns out we’re all not gonna die after all. The tornado didn’t touch down everywhere.
It never does.
Gary Frimann says:
Very interesting. I just had one of my agents get an offer today from another agent who was going to buy her listing as an investment. The agent claims her bank will allow her to do this. She was attracted to the property because the tenants do not really want to move, so she has built in (excellent) tenants. I thought to myself that this might not go through due to strict lending guidelines, but obviously some banks are going back to old fashioned lending. YOu’ve upped my confidence that this will close.
September 25, 2008 — 1:43 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Gary — If you go to the linked post, then to the comments, you’ll see a comment by fellow Bloodhound contributor, Thomas Hall. His client’s bank makes my lender look like a piker.
If that comment doesn’t get ya fired up, nothing will. π
September 25, 2008 — 2:12 pm
Craig Klein says:
Well put Jeff! This whole thing seems so utterly obvious. The only people who don’t seem to get it are the talking heads…
September 25, 2008 — 2:36 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Craig — It does seem obvious, but I’d add RE agents/brokers to the group. Most are dumbfounded when, after they finish lamenting the ‘fact’ of no loans available, I tell them of several loans closing for investors at 10-20% down, for outa state props.
There are lenders out there with money to lend, and they’re searching for YOU.
September 25, 2008 — 2:47 pm
Thomas Hall says:
Jeff – I think the real problem with this market is the banks don’t want to share their “nugget” clients with the agents π
Why can’t I find more investors like it? The issue isn’t finding the lenders – the issue is finding the buyers! π
September 25, 2008 — 4:00 pm
Sean Purcell says:
Lenders lend
Buyers buy
Sellers sell
I think I’ll have that tatooed on my… well, somewhere.
September 25, 2008 — 4:17 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Tom — Banks are pretty close to the vest with their ‘special’ clients, that’s for sure.
Buyer’s haven’t been our problem, though to be fair, they’re more scarce than say, a year ago.
September 25, 2008 — 4:44 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Sean — Think photo – eBay.
September 25, 2008 — 4:45 pm
J Boyer Summit NJ says:
Yes, lenders lend, sellers sell, buyers buy, it would be nice to get back to that. There are a few banks in my neck of the woods “Northern New Jersey” that have been and are still lending, and it is nice to have them, but it sure would be nice to get back to some semblance of normal.
September 25, 2008 — 5:54 pm
Chris says:
Well said Jeff. Their are still builders out their doing well.
I have found that getting money really isn’t such a big problem. Their are lots of people and banks out their looking to invest their money with you. Its slightly more expensive than it was before, but still.
What I have seen is are a lot of deals, and not very many people to chase after them. In my city only the builders that have been around 20-30+ years are still around, and building. All the competition is gone, and new people are to scared to get in the market. I smell great oppertunity
September 25, 2008 — 6:33 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Thanks Chris — I think I recognize you from choir practice. π
September 25, 2008 — 6:49 pm
Tom Vanderwell says:
In my city only the builders that have been around 20-30+ years are still around, and building
Hmmm….
I guess I must be in tornado land. In my city, one of the best quality builders went under on Monday after, you guessed it, 30 years in the biz….
It was a sad day and those of us who know him said, “Holy !%$@#$%@$^$#, if he can’t make it, Yikes!”
Tom
September 25, 2008 — 7:04 pm
Jonathan Blackwell says:
Love the post. The competition is gone and plenty of opportunities exist. My niche is on fire, they make me work twice as hard to get them through, but that just means when it gets easier I’ll appreciate it more π
September 25, 2008 — 7:25 pm
Robert Kerr says:
Very interesting. Where are all these sales happening, county and state, Jeff?
September 25, 2008 — 7:26 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Tom — Thinkin’ you guys have your own personal tornado. At least it must seem like that at times.
September 25, 2008 — 7:37 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Jonathan — It’s time like these smart/hard workers profit. It’s like so many have quoted here: The harder I work, the luckier I get.
September 25, 2008 — 7:40 pm
Panama says:
What everyone seems to forget is that for every buyer there is a seller and for every seller there is a buyer… money doesnt just “evaporate” and just changes hands… the real question here, is where is this money going to?
September 25, 2008 — 8:03 pm
Panama says:
moderator, i mean to say it changes hands, not and just changes hands…
September 25, 2008 — 8:05 pm
Jonathan Blackwell says:
Those wise people speak the truth.
September 25, 2008 — 8:33 pm
Michael Cook says:
“Money doesnt just “eveaporate” and (it?) just changes hands”
Not true. Money certainly evaporates. When properties drop 20% that equity or “money” literally evaporates. The stock market grows and contracts. If you pay $10 for something today and then sell it for $5 tomorrow, like magic, $5 has disappeared. Neither the buyer nor the seller have that money and the item is only worth $5.
Its great to see that people, at least the 13 here, are doing deals like crazy because New York City is dying a slow, painful death. I would love to know some locations, so I can put my money in your hands.
September 26, 2008 — 10:40 am
Doug Quance says:
>Panama: Au contraire – for every seller there is NOT a buyer. And while money doesn’t evaporate in the literal sense – wealth and equity do… so in essence, money does evaporate.
September 27, 2008 — 8:32 am
San Mateo Real Estate says:
Hey Jeff,
In the SF Bay Area, our lower end/entry level homes have been affected by “the tornado” but not to the point of complete destruction. Our high end market however seems pretty untouched (itβs not like the “Dot com” days where there were 10’s of buyers willing to pay hundreds of thousands over the asking price) but the upper-end houses haven’t really declined in value.
That being said, a lot of medium sized fish have been selling there larger estates to buy masses of houses in the lower-end. When this crisis gets all figured out, there are going to be a lot of people that are going to make a bunch of money from their wise sales and purchases.
September 29, 2008 — 2:02 pm