It is now pervasive, whether fact, fiction, miscalculation or a misunderstanding of economic adjustments — doom and gloom has colored our lexicon and everyone’s on board. The “realists” are merely pointing out facts, the politicians are merely offering a big hand to help all the little people in this troubling time, the agents are merely accepting fate, the lenders are merely going broke, the pundits are merely predicting a dour future — it’s over, real estate is dead.
If you don’t believe it you are an idiot, a Koolaid drinker, a liar, a naive babe in denial or an unscrupulous player preying on the unsuspecting. When someone asks you about the real estate market, tell them it’s dead and getting worse. Tell them there is nothing positive in sight, that it might go for years, decades, a century, who knows, just tell them it’s dead.
We’re doomed, and gloom is our tomorrow and the next day and many after that. Close your doors, lock up shop, sell the Mercedes, real estate is dead. Foreclosures will climb, and after the sub-prime, the leveraged will crumble and then the middle will fold and the highest of the high will fall like tin men one and all. No one will be spared, real estate is dead.
The builders will watch their half-built McMansions sit like bones in a graveyard; realtors will be playing guitars in the park for nickels and dimes; a huge swooshing sound will be heard as the last of the ill winds blow over the rubble that was once a great industry and renters will rule the world and lord over those who once were lords of land. Real estate is dead.
Brokers and lenders will flip burgers or work as city clerks while builders cut grass and investors shine shoes and players of all stripes sing the blues — real estate is dead.
Obama will help the least fortunate, but the ones who rode high will meet their just rewards, for, afterall, it was greed that brought us low. In the wasteland of RE web 2.0 there will be blogs written by the depressed and dispossessed, mashups showing a combination of sorrow, charts showing the declining lines leading to destitution — there will be sites that show the whole sordid mess drawing traffic from voyuers attracted to massacres with targeted ads to debt relief schemes, bankruptcy lawyers and do-it-yourself guides to homeless living. The ranks of the homeless will climb, but this time the ranks will be filled with professionals while the former homeless are placed in subsidized housing bought by the government on the cheap from the million plus vacancies. Real estate is dead.
I know this is true because I just read five articles saying so, and a hundred before that, and I heard it on the news, in the barber shop, whispered a little too loudly in restaurants — everywhere, everywhere, real estate is dead. The sad part is that nothing can be done to stop the spread to every village and hamlet in the good ‘ol US. This type of doom and gloom is ubiquitous, undeniable, unstoppable — it’s down right inevitable. Is there any bright side? Well, the election will be held shortly, and there’s a chance the government can turn it all around — all we can do is wait and hope — I’m sure they have a plan, and if Obabma wins he might even have mercy on us all– at least there will be change. Even McCain is thinking about a solution. Let’s keep our collective fingers crossed.
Matthew Hardy says:
Good post. Good laugh. Particularly funny: the number of multi-million dollar (commissions, not volume) real estate businesses who keep coming our way. I wonder it these companies are simply mopping up the business left behind by those leaving or just preparing for it.
April 13, 2008 — 9:28 am
Bawldguy Talking says:
My curiosity runs more to the estimate of how many readers were nodding their heads in somber agreement as they were reading. Those are the folks who keep gobbling up what MSM keeps cookin’. We’ve been dumbed down for too many years.
April 13, 2008 — 9:54 am
Robert Kerr says:
The data don’t lie, Mike.
Real estate isn’t dead, but it’s on life support, all across the nation. There are no real signs of improvement yet or even stabilization. In the markets I follow, all major metrics – volume, inventory, sale price, DOM, – are still degenerating.
IMO, to blame the mainstream media for this downturn reveals an unwillingness to objectively analyze and face the data.
April 13, 2008 — 10:38 am
Mike Farmer says:
Thanks Matthew and Jeff.
Robert, I think I was blaming everyone, not for talk of the real downturn, but for the shortsighted exaggerations, manipulations and mournful helplessness. This is a speck of fly sh*t on a very large table in relation to the ongoing reality of real estate. It’s just a little larger speck than some others I’ve lived through.
I have analyzed and faced the data, and I maintain that the world, and real estate, will go on.
The truth is that we couldn’t sustain the overheated activity of the boom years – we are going through a needed correction and risk-taking players got burned — but it’s not the end of the world — we’ve only scratched the surface of prosperity coming our way in this country and around the world. I tend to look at things from a larger perspective than a 2-3 year window. The future is bright, my friend.
April 13, 2008 — 1:13 pm
Mike Farmer says:
Whoops, I must have said something that got filtered — my previous response is in the dreaded “awaiting moderation”.
April 13, 2008 — 1:15 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Not to worry Mike — it happens to me too. Glad I’m not the Lone Ranger.
April 13, 2008 — 1:47 pm
Matthew Hardy says:
In the boom times, business is easy and so attracts less than business-minded entrants. This site, and many others, lament the lack of capability in their brethren who are now finding it too risky to remain in something they’re unsuited for.
Yes, Mike, we have only scratched the surface of the coming prosperity, generally and in real estate, which is becoming more egalitarian by the minute. Hail the independent businessperson! Free to associate! Free to aggregate!
April 13, 2008 — 1:59 pm
Eric Blackwell says:
Mike- I really enjoyed the post–thanks!
BTW-the awaiting moderation probably came from the * (grin). or was it the SH…or maybe the T?? (just kidding… ;-)).
Thanks again
Eric
April 13, 2008 — 2:00 pm
Matthew Hardy says:
> Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Yeah. I got it too. But I’m just drive-by, you guys live here. 😉
April 13, 2008 — 2:02 pm
Dave Shafer says:
I believe it was JP Morgan who said, “when my shoeshine boy is giving me stock tips, then it is time to sell it all!”
Consider this the opposite.
April 13, 2008 — 2:52 pm
Brian Brady says:
“Consider this the opposite.”
Absolutely, Dave. Warren Buffet describes his investment philosophy (paraphrased):
Greedy when all else are fearful and fearful when all else are greedy.
The data are proving of a decline BUT that’s already PAST data. What’s going to hurt the pessimists and bubble bloggers is that the market will turn around. In 10 years, housing prices will be up 50-75%, from today’s valuations…then what?
Is today the absolute best time to buy? Of course it is. It is always a great time to buy appreciating assets (if you can get them at the right price).
We need to adopt Jim Cramer’s approach; there is always a buy out there. Now before someone points out that he blew Bear and CFC, he’s been right a lot more than he’s been wrong.
Trends, people. Consistency, people. Future prognostications, not pointing at past data. Do your homework for your clients. Buy good properties on weakness. Put enough money down so that they cash-flow. Hold them. Sell. Repeat.
April 13, 2008 — 6:40 pm
chris says:
Haha good laugh I needed that!
On a serious note, this is my motto when I invest:
“to buy while blood is running in the streets”
Mayer Amschel Rothschild
Blood is certainly flowing, time to go buy some property! All the pessimists and bubble bloggers better get their Geo’s the fuck out of the way of my V12 Mercedes in a few years, when the markets return and they will have wasted a golden chance to make a ton of money. I have no use for chicken littles.
April 13, 2008 — 7:14 pm
Thomas Johnson says:
Dave, the legend has it that it was Joseph Kennedy who shorted the market after the shoe shinester’s tip thus solidifiying the familiy’s profits from running whiskey from Canada during prohibition. Like a modern day Mendoza Cartel brings weed into the USA from Mejico. To seed hedge funds trading MBS with great leverage.
April 13, 2008 — 8:10 pm
Wayne Long says:
“Greedy when all else are fearful and fearful when all else are greedy.”
If I believed what I saw every morning – I wouldn’t want to get out of bed in the morning. While it is true that the Real Estate industry is struggling and that the media should report it. They do tend to sensationalize and this causes more fear.
All the while Real Estate is Real Property and will appreciate over time.
April 14, 2008 — 11:22 pm
Jonathan Bunn- Ashburn VA Real Estate says:
There is just something about that word CHANGE that seems to releave all of my worries too Mike. I don’t even know what the change is, but since everything is falling apart it just has to be right. lol.
April 16, 2008 — 9:29 am