Richard Riccelli fingered this article on intimations of irrelevance in the advertising industry. Richard and I lived through the demise of professional typography, so I have a different take than some others here about the dreaded word “disintermediation.”
If the triumphant yelp is that some travel agents and some stockbrokers still have jobs, I will point out that some blacksmiths still have jobs, too. Attention must be paid and horses must be shod. That much is utterly beside the point.
Here’s my take on the matter: Don’t think in terms of disintermediation. Use the word “supplantation” instead. The dilbert in the advertising article is insisting that he is not a dinosaur — because he knows he is. He is being supplanted by much smarter ways of doing his job, and he will never, ever catch up — first because he doesn’t want to change, and second because the first-mover advantage is too great.
In the same way, there is no need to start a revolution to get rid of the pestilential NAR. They have no intention of changing, nor any ability to change — but it doesn’t matter. We don’t need to storm the Bastille, we just need to get on with what we’re doing. The NAR will persist in a state of increasing irrelevance, a rotting husk like the neglected Sunday newspaper out on the front porch, but it won’t matter at all in due course.
The same goes for everything. If we are not all the way onboard with the way business will be done, we will be left behind at the station. The work we do will be superficially similar to the work others have done in the past — but those others won’t be doing it any longer.
Will they have been disintermediated? Not if you insist that they haven’t. But they will have been well and truly supplanted.
When will that happen? Ask a blacksmith — if you can find one.
Technorati Tags: disintermediation, real estate, real estate marketing, technology
louis@homegain.com says:
Too bad blogs didn’t exist at the turn of the century.
If they did blacksmiths might have been able to save their profession with their own Blacksmith Blogs, thereby enabling them to go “Straight to the Horses” Hooves” with no middleMAN.
April 9, 2008 — 8:34 am
Todd says:
Odd to read this post and note the “debate” tone, as if it is not a foregone conclusion that technology has made the NAR obsolete.
I would caution that there may be a last desperate act before extinction. It is my understanding that the NAR has a very powerful roster of influence pedlers in Washington D.C., and I would bring your attention to the Recording Industry’s solution to stave off their obsolescence – a national tax:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/03/28/the-music-tax-details-of-the-plan-they-dont-want-you-to-know/
The tax will be imposed on everyone in the country, not just people who download music. Foreshadowing? A national tax on everyone, even if they don’t own a home, to prop up the NAR? If the RIAA can do it, I don’t put it past any other obsolete organization.
April 9, 2008 — 9:02 am
Bawldguy Talking says:
Greg — Your point is why I’ve chosen to adapt to what the smartest folks in the room have been teaching me. I am doing the same thing I did 30 years ago, but through vastly different means in many cases.
I guess we shouldn’t use the word ‘never’, but It’ll take longer than my lifetime to create technology capable of doing what I do. I suspect the same is true of your niche, historical homes. Your use of state of the art technology sets you as the gold standard, but it still requires you and Cathleen, and your collective experience, expertise, and knowledge.
I don’t see either one of us supplanted any time soon.
April 9, 2008 — 10:27 am
Eric Blackwell says:
Greg;
GREAT point. Funny part is, some of the very folks who build themselves a media empire (even online) are ripe for supplantation. The internet allows no one the excess baggage of obese thinking.
I agree with Jeff’s point above, but would add that the REASON that you guys are not in danger is because you are focused on being the supplantor and NOT the supplantee.
It’s not really about adaptation. It is about active, aggressive, and decisive action bent on offense…not on defense. If adaptation allows the gazelle to run faster. IMO, to the cheetah, they are still simply dinner. (grin)
Best;
Eric
April 9, 2008 — 1:51 pm
Dave Phillips says:
Greg,
Nicely written, but I have to say – I’ve heard this same song before. Same song, different pew. First it was the Internet and buyer agency that would surplant REALTORS and now what is it – Zillow, blogs and long-tail marketing?
NAR is not going anywhere quickly. It is such a large organization that change comes slow – that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It up to fast movers like the readers and writers on this site to lead the way. Just understand, they will follow, but by the time they get here, we will be gone.
One of my favorite quotes is “nothing changes until the pain of staying the same is greater than the pain of change.” That defines every organization – not just NAR. Would you rather they be ahead of you, leading the way into your future?
April 9, 2008 — 4:54 pm
Greg Swann says:
> It up to fast movers like the readers and writers on this site to lead the way.
No, it isn’t. First, being smart is not a tax, a debt owed to the dumb. Second, the NAR has no intention of changing. It is sclerotic to begin with, but it can only change by betraying what it is. The people who can straddle a paradigm shift are very few in number, and none of them are in the NAR.
But that does not matter: As with the obsolescence of the newspaper or of scattershot advertising or every other piece of the pre-webbed world, the desires and intentions of the dinosaurs don’t matter at all. The world runs by itself.
> Would you rather they be ahead of you, leading the way into your future?
I would rather the NAR died gracefully. But it won’t.
April 9, 2008 — 5:21 pm
Dave Phillips says:
Greg, you are a leader even if you don’t want to be. NAR has a lot of intention to change and they will, but it will never be fast enough to keep up with the changing times. Dare I compare NAR to the Federal Govm’t. If the was a fluid and efficient organization that was leading the way into the future, we would all be in trouble. Same with NAR – they are not supposed to lead the way.
Run dog run and sniff out the way for us.
April 9, 2008 — 5:40 pm
David Patterson, Broker CRS ABR says:
Greg:
As a member of the Hip-Hop (aka…a subsection of Generation X) Nation,I must give you some “props”.
“The NAR will persist in a state of increasing irrelevance, a rotting husk like the neglected Sunday newspaper out on the front porch.”
Some people don’t like hip-hop because it can be a bit RAW! That statement was RAW! What’s the other similarity between the two….They both speak the truth!
I love reading your posts! Keep up the good writing!
April 9, 2008 — 7:57 pm
Greg Swann says:
> I love reading your posts! Keep up the good writing!
Bless you, sir. Thank you.
April 9, 2008 — 8:13 pm
Barry Cunningham says:
why is it that it seems that those for change are most apt to be younger? Perhaps because in their lifetime things have changed at warp speed! We grew up with 3 television networks and something cool called FM radio..today there are hundreds of internet shows in addition to 500 cable shows.
We used to have yellow pages (can’t remember when the last time I picked up a phone book), today we “google it”.
Have you ever stood in front of a microwave and said “Hurry Up?
greg, you know I agree with what you say. I don’t and can’t comprehend others who can’t see the inevitable. It’s most assuredly not an if…it’s definitely a when.
That…there can be no doubt. I hear so often..”I can’t be replaced by technology”…often spoken by people who can’t explain what it is they do.
Tomorrow’s consumer WANTS to be able to be served technologically. Anyone who doubts that is not being truly honest withthemselves.
I have to go now..I have a bid on an REO that I have to review online and then check on my settlement and closing status with my virtual settlement company on a house that I purchased last week in Maryland.
I’ve never seen the house and no realtor was involved. Direct from the bank.
The comet is coming sooner than most think.
April 10, 2008 — 8:35 am
Ranjit Mathoda says:
Many ideas about how the Internet will effect the world are right only in certain situations, yet they are held to be true about all situations and stated in a manner that leads to overly broad interpretations. My essay “Internet truths that are often wrong” discusses Disintermediation, the Death of Distance, and Open always beats Closed, and can be found at http://mathoda.com/archives/195
April 10, 2008 — 2:49 pm
Late Night Austin Real Estate Blog says:
Heres a question. If the end of traditional real estate is upon us. And someone like zillow really takes over. Who will be better off in 2 years? Myself a tech realtor or an dinosaur old school guy.
This might surprise people but I recently I have started to think the dinosaur might actually be doing better. Why? I am appealing to internet people if there is main market place ala zillow, trulia the internet users will flock their and forget their real estate agents. The Dinosaurs will market to grandma nancy down the street that is confused by the internet. Their business might actually survive longer as much as I find that notion distasteful.
April 11, 2008 — 3:05 am
Todd says:
@Late Night Austin Real Estate Blog
“…I am appealing to internet people if there is main market place ala zillow, trulia the internet users will flock their and forget their real estate agents.”
No, not at all. I still need a human to consult, an expert with lots of experience, who I am willing to pay well for excellent service. A “high tech” agent is someone I can send my Zillow search results to, in the form of just a URL, and they will know what to do, saving me time.
Zillow, Twitter, Trulia are tools, powerful ones, that let me the Consumer make better decisions. If anything they remove the NAR from artificially inserting itself between me and my agent.
And to your wondering about “dinosaurs” focusing on people that do not use the available tools, that maybe. But my research shows the older the demographic, the less frequent they sell and buy homes. That makes for a diminishing return, that isn’t worth pursuing.
April 11, 2008 — 8:16 am