Recent events brought to mind an article published last week by one of my all time favorite Wall Street guys, Max Whitmore. In it Mr. Whitmore spoke of what’s been called the PPT, or Plunge Protection Team. The short version says after the October 19, 1987 stock market crash, this team was put together.
It’s existence cannot be proved. (Who cares anyway?) I don’t put any credence in any governmental economic ‘Black Ops Team’. I do however acknowledge documented empirical evidence of something happening. This is especially true when it happens more than once — the exact same way — with the exact same timing.
We can discuss if there really is a ‘who’ behind it over a beer some time.
Anyway, as Mr. Whitmore documents with historical and empirical evidence, there’s been a pattern a few times now, in which stock market moves cannot be explained. They happened. The way they happened are clone-like in their sameness. Clone-like? How ’bout down to a minute or two in real time? Each time they were bottom line effective. The market turned around.
He’s seeing it again. And again he cannot explain it — except for the fact it’s there.
Max Whitmore isn’t just another ‘stock guy’ trying to get publicity. He couldn’t care less. For Heaven’s sakes the last time I checked, the man now works mostly from his home in the midwest. He’s a former S & P trader of the year if memory serves. He’s one of the most revered and respected ‘chartists’ in his industry. In other words, he’s credible in the old school sense of the word.
Masterful segue to Mr. Buffet and Mr. Ross.
Keeping the above in mind, why aren’t we seeing more people reporting on what I’m seeing? Here is another, and here.
The end of 2007 has Buffet getting into the Bond Insurance business. Less than a month later we’re all talking about how to save the bond insurers. Come on now, this isn’t me trying to convince anyone of a new twist on the grassy knoll. This is happening in real time for all to see — and is incontrovertible. If the BawldGuy can see it, anyone can.
Can’t think of anyone better than Warren Buffet through whom to regain some credibility, stability, and most of all confidence.
Add to this Bernanke’s surprising .75 slashing of the Fed Funds Rate. If he cuts it again next week, it’ll be another few bricks in the wall for me.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Wilbur Ross is poised to buy into another failing industry. He’s known for this. In fact he’s often called the Master of Distress. He buys what nobody wants — it’s made him a billionaire. What does he like these days? Subprime. Go figure. He’s already made his move, investing $50 Million into American Home Mortgage Investment.
Let’s review.
Two of the most brilliant businessmen/investors of the last century think now is the time to put their money into this whole real estate oriented train wreck.
HHMMMMM
I would love to hear others on this subject, as I’m certainly not the guy for this. Brian Brady should have much to say, at least he might now since I’ve roped him into this by mentioning his name. ๐ I won’t have to ask Greg. (get out your Latin to English helper)
A final note. When I broached this to Brian earlier today, and asked him about the so called ‘urban legend’ of the Plunge Protection Team, he’d heard of it too. When I brought up what Mr. Whitmore said about it he pinpointed 2003 as a time it might have been put into play. Whitmore had done the same, with literally minute by minute documentation.
I don’t know, and frankly I couldn’t care less if this PPT exists or not. More plainly said, if my interest in the subject jumped a couple levels I’d only then be apathetic about it.
I don’t have a solid position here, with the exception of the veracity of Mr. Whitmore’s charts. He’s a meticulously competent and experienced trader. His charts reflect everything that’s happened in the stock markets, (especially the S & P) for the last 40+ years. His reputation for character and integrity have never been questioned.
Joe Hayden says:
Jeff…
Mr. Ross is quite a fascinating character, is he not? I think his actions are positive news in general because his is a measured risk…He must be very confident of the market rebound to make such a move.
It will be interesting to see how AHM thrives in it’s new incarnation. It was built on a rocky foundation that ultimately failed. Can it be reborn with the discipline to honor the philosophy of Mr. Ross?
January 24, 2008 — 11:01 pm
Doug Quance says:
Well I’m no expert… but I sensed that the “big money” might step in a few days ago – and this shows that my sense might have been on mark.
Now if we could get Buffett to shut up about how he pays more taxes than his secretary…
๐
January 24, 2008 — 11:01 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Joe — Track record alone says the smart money is on Ross.
January 24, 2008 — 11:04 pm
Doug Quance says:
Dammit – I can’t edit my comment… I meant “Now if we could get Buffett to shut up about he pays LESS takes than his secretary…”
It’s late, folks.
January 24, 2008 — 11:04 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Doug — You and me Big Guy. ๐
He pays less she does for the same reason he’s worth more than she is.
January 24, 2008 — 11:06 pm
Doug Quance says:
Nah, he actually pays more… just at a lower rate because his 40+ million is in the form of capital gains and not earned income.
It’s just terribly disingenuous to present the argument the way that he does.
I mean – c’mon – if he feels like he’s not taxed enough… he should just send in more. I’m pretty sure they’ll take it – no questions asked.
๐
January 24, 2008 — 11:27 pm
Joe Hayden says:
I agree, Jeff…I just wish I had a spare 50 mil. sitting around so I could get in on the party…
Tell you what, just to make everyone happy, I’m going to invest my newfound wealth in the form of a tax ‘rebate’ in AHM…All about the leverage…;)
January 24, 2008 — 11:28 pm
Joey Remondino says:
That is the first I have heard of the PPT but I would not be surprised of its existence. I would think this kind of thing would happen naturally with some of the big hitters anyway.
One of my favorite Buffet quotes is โWhen people are greedy be fearful, when people are fearful be greedyโ, or something like that.
My point is when the market is down this dramatically the big money steps in; everyone then thinks it is safe to get back in the water. Hence the big money makes more big money.
But then again what do I know; I probably pay more taxes then Mr. Buffet.
January 25, 2008 — 7:35 am
Mark Daugherty says:
Maybe the appearance that there is a PPT results from the actions of a few smart, enabled market participants who recognize that the time to pull the trigger is when all else are afraid to, and nothing else.
January 25, 2008 — 7:08 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Joey — Buffet has come up with many gems. My all time favorite is his take on diversification. (paraphrased) ‘Diversification is for those who don’t know what they’re doing.’
January 25, 2008 — 7:17 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Mark — Your take is more plausible, that’s for sure.
January 25, 2008 — 7:19 pm
Late Night Austin Real Estate Blog says:
I had never heard of the PPT. The only issue is that if Buffet and co are stepping in because they think its a smart move that is a good sign. Buffet and co are pretty smart guys. If they are stepping in because they signed up for it and feel some sort of obligation, to me at least, is not as good of a sign.
January 26, 2008 — 6:09 am
Jeff Brown says:
Late Night — I can’t imagine a scenario involving Buffet doing this for any reason other than he thinks it’s the smart move.
January 26, 2008 — 12:11 pm