Science versus Religion

by Kris Berg

Realtor, Associate Broker

Author website

My Big Bang Theory is about science colliding with religion, and a lot of noise.

My strike has been temporarily suspended. I got the same advance notice that so many others did of the BIG NEWS this week, but press releases are rarely conveniently timed around my real estate business schedule, so I will chime in late and with benefit of time to contemplate.

Redfin’s latest BIG NEWS was of course about the Second Coming, the first having occurred on 60 Minutes long, long ago. From their blog:

We only worry that the name we’ve given this initiative, “The Real Estate Scientist,” will open us to being mocked. And too, we hesitated to give consumers simple answers due to the complexity of the underlying data… We strove for conclusive answers because we have houses to sell every week, and customers who need straightforward guidance.

I am not in the business of mocking, as you have a pretty solid corner on that market. And that is precisely my objection, my only objection, to your business model – that it is predicated and dependent on convincing a public that your “different” approach is enlightened and studied where mine is one of fly by the seat of my pants, tell the consumer what they want to hear, and hit the streets with nothing but an opinion and a smile.

It is indeed troubling to give simple answers when the data is so complex, but it is much more convenient I suppose. Delivering and interpreting data to support your ongoing argument that every other real estate agent since the beginning of time is too uninformed, addle minded, lazy, or greedy to achieve your level of enlightenment would be so exhausting. That darn science can be just so confusing. Better to just suggest as much, over and over again. Preach long and loud enough, and the congregation will surely take it on faith.

Consumers who have read early drafts of the report overwhelmingly found our recommendations useful and effective. The industry reaction will likely be different. Some will argue that the report substantiates already well-understood tactics, while others will take the exact opposite position, refuting our points one by one.

That pretty much covers all bases, a clever preemptive strike to further the notion that you are a renegade and we  (“we” being “everyone else”) are still making fire with sticks. I, of course, could engage in both the “duh” and the “not so fast” arguments, but I don’t really believe it is “informed conversation” that is your goal. Dialogue can really mess up the cadence of a good sermon.

But the truth is that a discussion of how real estate brokerages can deliver better results, based on data rather than just opinion, is in everyone’s best interests. And the findings aren’t simply a prescription for how we’ll serve our customers, but the starting point for an informed conversation about pricing and marketing our listings.

And yet I can’t help talking in church. Is it science or religion that is the foundation of your model? I do have a little science of my own, and this science is based on actual field tests performed over the past decade, from whence those nasty “opinions” that I harbor were formed. Fridays are good for listing a home. Yep! The problem is that a going live in the MLS on Friday will often result in the property not being picked up by the dozens of sites that sweep once a day until after the weekend, not to mention that a mid- to late-day Friday entry will miss the eyes of so many agents who make their Saturday showing appointments on Friday mornings.

Vacant homes are more difficult to sell. Yep! But not always, in the case of the poorly maintained or cluttered home, in the case of the home with too many occupants including pets, or in the case of the tenant occupied home with difficult showing provisions. And not always for the reason you give (that buyers will perceive desperation). Vacant homes, absent careful and costly staging, simply do not speak to the buyer on the same emotional level.

The seller should be motivated. The home should be priced properly. The property should be advertised online. All that.

More science, then. At the risk of sounding blasphemous, Redfin didn’t invent the concept of online advertising. I don’t believe you even invented Craigslist. But I did notice that just two of your three active listings in San Diego are posted there. All of mine are. Did you know you need to refresh listings every seven days? I guess one of your clients got busy and forgot. We do that for our clients. And did you know you can post more than three pictures? Whoops! This one is vacant. Maybe it is better to not show so many photos.

More science. Sometimes it is very hard to practice what you preach. A softening market and unrealistic seller expectations are things we all have to deal with from time to time. I noticed that of  your 3 San Diego active listings and 1 pending sale, 4 have gone through a price reduction. I also noticed that one was listed on a Monday and another on a Wednesday, and that the average market time for these homes is 151 days. (Averaging numbers is a “science thing” and involves both addition and division, so I hope I haven’t oversimplified.) Don’t get me wrong, it happens to us all on occasion, since we don’t always have the luxury of dictating our seller’s listing terms. But my science doesn’t match your sermon. We advise, we counsel, and then we play the hand we are dealt to the best of our abilities.

My intent is not to ridicule or attack, Glenn. I like you a lot, and I adore Cynthia, your marketing guru. She deserves a raise, in fact. While I am resigned to delivering my “science” and my message on my website and my little blog and face-to-face with live consumers, you are praying for your deliverance and my demise from a pulpit on national television. And I just find your ongoing proselytizing tiring and dishonest. You are not a savior, and I am not Satan, nor is it the other way around. Science is good, but you have not engineered or even created anything revolutionary, except perhaps a new twist on the old collection plate.