First, for those of you now wondering what the heck the Medoza Line is, here’s the short version.
I come from the Mario Mendoza school, not Minnie Mendoza, as Mario was actually a major leaguer for nine years. Anyway, all it refers to is Mendoza’s consistently inept performance at the plate. His career batting average was a miniscule .215 — which included the year that produced The Mendoza Line — 1979 — in which he hit .198. Using sports hyperbole, Greg Swan could hit .198 — and I’m not positive he knows which end of the bat to hold. ๐
Seth Godin wrote a piece Sunday morning letting the cat out of the bag.
Marketing people worship at the altar of The Mendoza Line.
Quoting Seth:
Marketers have lots of ‘bullets’ and they don’t notice the ones they miss (I usually miss 99.5% of the time online, and more than 99.999% of the time selling books). We just reload and blithely continue on.
Surely, he’s being overly modest — yet, even discounting his humility, he speaks basic truth.
Yep, that’s my experience with marketers. They aspire to the Mendoza Line.
My opinion of most marketing people is about the same as it is for most real estate agents or mortgage brokers — most of them couldn’t find their asses with both hands, a map, two helpers, and a GPS.
Yet, hypocritically, I’m using two of ’em to make my point. Guys like Seth and Richard Riccelli, stick out like sore thumbs because in my opinion, they actually produce results. Go figure.
Let’s pause here to be clear and forthright about my understanding of marketing.
My definition: It’s their job to generate more chances for their client to succeed. Put another way — if their ideas work, the agent/client finds himself in front of far more prospects. In baseball-ese, those are at-bats. The agent who gets 20 more opportunities a month, and hits at The Mendoza Line, makes a ton more money each year.
That’s how I define marketing.
Let’s quantify those additional 20 opportunities in today’s terms. If your market’s median home price is $200,000 and you’re ‘batting average’ on those 20 extra monthly at-bats is .200 (20% conversion rate), here’s what would happen. Your income would, as a direct result of effective marketing, increase by $288,000 annually. (3% listing-side commission)
It’s all about the at-bats. If you’re a better ‘hitter’ and bat .300, converting 30% of the 20 extra monthly prospects, your yearly income rises by $432,000. Modify the number of increased opportunities, and/or the batting average. It still results in an easily quantifiable income increase for the agent/client.
Either way, the marketer did their job — you came to the plate an additional 240 times in a ‘season’.
Confession — I’m just arriving at the level of marketing knowledge which gives birth to real danger. Branding, niches, targeting, and the rest — have all been explained to me by some pretty savvy marketing people.
Results? I refer you back to Seth’s statement. Dismissing his hyperbolic statement, let’s say they’re right 2 of 10 tries. Measurably right — not kinda sorta, don’t ya see, right. This means they’re getting paid very well, at least in my experience, for consistently being on the wrong end of the 80/20 rule.
They must be far more effective at marketing themselves, cuz we keep paying ’em to fail miserably. ๐
I’ve used marketing firms since 1987.
One idea generated from a marketing firm, in all those years has worked.
Very narrowly targeted direct mail, which was designed to clearly show I actually knew what I was talking about. In the nearly two decades it was used, it was consistently and, best of all, predictably successful. Sometimes phenomenally so. What’s phenomenal? A letter sent to only 3,000 recipients, resulting in over six figures of income — direct cause and effect. That happened three times. Our average effort, sent to 1,500-2,500 recipients, usually produced income of $25-60,000.
In the period 1987-2004 — only two letters produced no bankable results. One was an experiment in stoopid. The other just failed, and to this day we haven’t a clue as to why.
Now? We’ve abandoned this approach. The last two mailings, (Late 2004 and early 2005) to about 16,000 recipients each, resulted in one client from the first, and not even a phone call from the second. Times and circumstances change.
Our marketing people at the time, told us it was at least partly, if not totally due to the new ‘no call’ law. Their theory, which makes as much sense as any of the other dozen reasons I’ve heard, is more agents now use direct mail, cuz they can’t make calling work as before. Our letters were now getting lost in the din — kinda like having 10 agents knocking on your front door at once.
Fair enough — things change — businesses must adjust to those changes.
In the last three plus years, and this is embarrassing to admit, we’ve paid out well over six figures for marketing — exclusive of the marketing itself. Just for them to answer our phone calls. (More hyperbole, but you get the picture.)
I’ve keenly observed my colleagues and their various approaches. Their experiences seem to be similar, except they apparently haven’t been supporting any marketers. Like me, 80-100% of their tangible — read closed business, readily visible in the company bank account — has come from their marketing ideas, not marketing pros.
Same with us.
Somebody please tell me this: What marketing firm has anyone used, resulting in easily attributable increases in income? Income that dwarfs the cost of the marketing itself? Do you know of one? I don’t.
We all know they exist. They’re out there. I’ve just never met one, had a phone conversation with one, or heard first hand from another agent about one.
If my firm, or any real estate company for that matter, had the performance record most real estate marketing firms sport, (performance here = results) I’d have been doing something else a long time ago. Results in marketing though, don’t seem to matter. As long as they sound good, regurgitate what we’ve told them, and create what we think is pretty…whatever, they’ve earned their pay.
Hogwash.
Here’s what I’ve consistently experienced.
“So, what have you been doing that’s been successful in the past?” Answer: See above.
“Tell me about the profile of your client.” Answer: The same as it’s been since I switched from selling homes. Hasn’t changed much since Carter was in office.
“Have you implemented a drip marketing campaign?” Answer: No, but maybe soon. What do I have to lose?
“Do you currently…blah blah blah.”
At some point they wanna talk about a monthly retainer, or however else they’re to be paid — none of it, of course, tied to actual results. I’m paid for results. In fact, that’s misleading. I’m never paid sans results. However, they’re either insulted by the mere thought, or decide IF their ideas succeed, they wanna piece of my action.
Yeah, and the Kansas City Royals agreed to pay Mario Mendoza a percentage of their profits whenever he accidentally hit a homer. Give me a freakin’ break.
This isn’t a blanket indictment of the marketing industry. I get it — it’s not a science. I contend however, it’s more of a science than an art. Art is subjective, and has value as part of the whole marketing equation. You either know what you’re doing, or you don’t. You either consistently produce tangible results or you don’t.
There’s no need for beating a dead horse here, but blogging is the quintessential real estate example. Wanna know why less than 1% of agents blog? Cuz it doesn’t work for them — duh. Marketers are taking their money right and left though, you can take that to the bank. (pun intended) If most real estate agent bloggers were even doing even one extra deal a month, 20% of agents everywhere would be clogging WordPress tomorrow — minimum.
You know I’m right. Blogging though is just the easiest example.
Everything that’s worked for my company in the last several years has come from either my son, or me and my pea brain. When I say worked, I mean the results put a smile on Mrs. Brown’s pretty face. Since I brought her up, I’ll caution you — strongly. Don’t ever bring up marketing or marketers in her presence. She thinks they’re all worthless — which, of course, I think is unfair, and untrue. She also owns her own company, and has for over 20 years. In fact, she just opened up her third business, a retail store. I can’t write her opinion of marketers on these pages. ๐
I’m writing this as a result of two posts actually.
Richard Riccelli wrote “Is That Your Father?” After I read it, I immediately understood Greg’s consistent praise for Richard. He’s obviously no Mario Mendoza, but rather, a George Brett. You can tell, cuz he charges an arm and a leg — and gets it from firms who could buy & sell my puny company before their morning coffee break — and remain blissfully unaware of it unless their CFO informed them. ๐ Translation? Richard produces results. So did George Brett — ‘you could look it up’ as Yogi used to say.
Same apparently goes for Seth Godin. Strangers don’t collectively give you tons of bank because you’re a putz. You’ve not only been there, but done that — big time. I get it. Seth produces too.
Those two, and legions like them, are not the marketers of whom I speak.
No, those marketers want to get paid for work which is more than likely not only ineffective, but just a waste of time and money. If they hit on something which succeeds wildly, they want a piece of your action, in return for their brilliance. A blind squirrel finally finds an acorn, and demands a million bucks for it. Yeah, that’s the ticket. ๐
Let’s translate that approach to investment real estate.
It’s 1977 and I’ve advised you to invest in Canton, Ohio income property. Oops, you’re not happy, but at least I was paid.
OR
It’s 1977 and instead of Canton, I advise you to put your investment capital into San Diego property. You make gazillions — and I want a piece cuz, well, I just want a piece. Give me a slice of that golden pie big boy. It was my idea ya know.
Works for me. ๐ Investors — does that work for you? Don’t answer — it’s a rhetorical question. (And, by the way, I spelled rhetorical right the first try.)
That’s a marketer. Now before marketers hit speed dial for their favorite assassin, I realize there are times when it’s perfectly appropriate to take a piece of the action. It’s my contention however, it should be because their client can’t afford them, and/or other very obvious and exceptional circumstances.
Those circumstances do not include the normal marketer/RE agent-as-client relationship 99.999% of the time, as Seth might say.
Yet, I’ve been approached by marketing firms, after we developed a working relationship, not once, but twice, asking for a piece of my pie.
Both firms no longer exist. Go figure.
The Million Dollar question remains.
Is there a marketer out there who will charge what they’re worth, be effective more times than not, take their pay, and go on to the next project?
If yer hangin’ around, hidin’ somewhere, there’s literally more real estate business out there than you could handle in the next decade. Of course, if you are out there, you’re more rare than a Mario Mendoza home run. ๐
Russell Shaw says:
Surveys are the key to stats. ๐ Have the wrong survey button in your message and nothing else will matter. Have the correct button and your ad “is successful”. I do not believe there is any ad agency or ad person in the world who could simply “know” the correct button for all industries. This is the reason for all of those questions they ask you – they are trying to figure out the button without having to bother doing a survey. Those take time.
December 10, 2007 — 11:31 am
Jeff Brown says:
Russell — I get that, and agree with you. The shortest relationship I’ve ever had with a marketer has been well over a year.
You point about marketers not ‘knowing’ the right buttons to push for all industries is right on the mark. I learned that fact the hard way.
Isn’t 1-5 years enough time?
December 10, 2007 — 11:44 am
Bob in San Diego says:
Knowing the right buttons to push is the science of testing different buttons. Unforutnately, the government keeps limiting the types of buttons we can use…
It’s gotten to the point where they don’t want us to contact any potential clients unless we are just calling them back.
December 10, 2007 — 12:47 pm
Tom Nagle says:
Jeff,
I enjoyed your post..
You had said that you mailed for seventeen years with predictable, consistent results….and then you STOPPED mailing all together because of poor response (virtually none) from two consecutive mailings in 2004 and 2005?
After seventeen years of success? Huh?
I agree that times and circumstances change (more on that in a moment), but perhaps you should consider:
1) The message was bad.
2) The message was irrelevant.
3) The list to whom you mailed was poor.
4) You didn’t show up enough.
5) You didn’t track anything other than incoming calls.
Again, I don’t know anything at all about your marketing; the frequency, the quality of the message, the quality of your list, etc..
I do that wholesale abandonment of a marketing message that worked is often premature (ask me how I know that).
I agree that, based on RESULTS, the campaign didn’t produce that month. So tweak.
I am not one to outsource my marketing to anyone, because then you get excuses like the poor response of a POST CARD CAMPAIGN was the result of the “Do Not Call” law (I did get that right?). No ones knows your market better than you (I hope).
Times and circumstances changes. Technology and databases are far better than they were a few years ago, so I end doing a heck of a lot less pieces than I did before, but I am far more targeted in my message and I test like hell. I spend less and we get better results. At least most of the time, and we are never done.
Tom
Sorry for the length of this reply, but I woud
Very narrowly targeted direct mail, which was designed to clearly show I actually knew what I was talking about. In the nearly two decades it was used, it was consistently and, best of all, predictably successful. Sometimes phenomenally so. Whatโs phenomenal? A letter sent to only 3,000 recipients, resulting in over six figures of income โ direct cause and effect. That happened three times. Our average effort, sent to 1,500-2,500 recipients, usually produced income of $25-60,000.
In the period 1987-2004 โ only two letters produced no bankable results. One was an experiment in stoopid. The other just failed, and to this day we havenโt a clue as to why.
Now? Weโve abandoned this approach. The last two mailings, (Late 2004 and early 2005) to about 16,000 recipients each, resulted in one client from the first, and not even a phone call from the second. Times and circumstances change.
December 10, 2007 — 1:19 pm
Lani Anglin says:
Jeff, I love that you never settle for less than the best.
***********
PS: congrats on spelling ‘rhetorical’ correctly ๐
PSS: mmmmmm…. pie!
December 10, 2007 — 1:20 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Tom — First, thanks for the thoughtful comments — they’re appreciated.
It wasn’t solely because two mailings failed so dismally that we stopped mailing. There was a very visible decline over time, which then culminated in our loss of faith.
>1) The message was bad.
It was the same message that had gained so much traction over the years. It was the same message which resonates so well on my blog, and in my office, and on the road during seminars. No, don’t think it was the message.
2) The message was irrelevant.
See #1. ๐
3) The list to whom you mailed was poor.
Recipients were current San Diego investment property owners fitting a pretty solid profile. I’d put my list next to anybody’s list.
4) You didnโt show up enough.
I’ve been mailing to segments of that (25,000 person) list since 1987. I’ve had prospects walk into my office with a folder containing years of my letters.
I’ve shown up enough. ๐
5) You didnโt track anything other than incoming calls.
Unless I’m tracking the mailman, incoming calls, their follow-ups, and subsequent office visits, along with actual business transacted.
This ain’t my first rodeo, Tom. I realize most agents send out letters screaming to the recipient how bitchen they are, a bunch of fluff. Our letters have been well received by investors who appreciate substance.
Our returns? How about an average of over 1%?
About 20% of our mailings produced returns (in terms of phone calls) in excess of 2% — with two of them surpassing 4%. (I hated the phone that week.)
I’ve had marketers review previous letters, concluding they shouldn’t be altered. Two of them, however, said they had better ways.
I didn’t talk about those experiments. Let’s just say the return would’ve been much better in Vegas.
We’re going a slightly different way next month. We’ll see what happens. This new marketer seems to believe our message is right, our list is stellar, and the timing couldn’t be better.
We’ll see.
December 10, 2007 — 3:23 pm
Jeff Brown says:
Bob — Buttons are disappearing one by one, aren’t they?
December 10, 2007 — 3:45 pm
Brian Brady says:
Jeff:
I just got a list of 1000 VA loan holders in San Diego, from 1998-2003…and have never been refinanced.
A letter to that group, in 2000, would produce 50 calls; in 2005, 1-2 calls. Let’s see what happens now that times are a bit tougher.
I think you may be surprised with the results next month
December 10, 2007 — 8:08 pm
Morgan Brown says:
Jeff – I think marketers are just like real estate agents or lawyers or doctors or contractors – 1 to 2% of the entire population really earn what they charge. The rest try to earn your business by charging less than what the best charge because that’s the only way they know how to win business. Much like a loan hack – promise the world, leave an unsatisfied customer in your wake and move on. The analogies are endless.
A superstar marketer is just like a super star in anything else; they’re rare, expensive and worth every dime.
December 11, 2007 — 1:00 am
Jeff Brown says:
Morgan — Perfectly put. I hope it’s more like 10% instead of 1-2% though.
December 11, 2007 — 1:04 am
Martin Jennings says:
We’re all guilty of myopia sometimes. A very short-sighted or nears sighted approach to our own situations. When we are too close to the forest…overhead, salaries, bottom lines etc., we truly cannot see the forest ahead.
We all recognize that marketing is not a science. Real Estate Sales is not a science. If it were, all would perform either equally or fail entirely. With all the competition in the industry combined with a supply of “tools” growing exponentially and our inherent short attention span, is it any wonder why we’re always searching for the “magic bullet?”
Marketing is simple. Know who you wish to reach, find out as much as you can about them and their habits, preferences etc. Determine their patterns and make every effort to inoffensively gain their attention. Once you have their attention, you can begin a meaningful win-win dialogue based on mutual understanding and trust. Doesn’t anyone remember common sense? Oh yeah, if it were common we’d all have it.
Those in real estate sales are in SALES! How many SALESPEOPLE know anything about marketing? About 1-2% according to the maxim. Those 1-2% are the leaders in the industry and most probably don’t need/want a “marketing expert.” The 80% majority will do modestly well simply because they can sell, sometimes. Many are superb negotiators, many are extremely adept at dodging the obstacles to the closing, many others are simply persuasive in getting the listing. Most are not proficient in all aspects. Is there anything wrong in admitting our own weaknesses?
Common sense, communicated well to the target market, with the understanding that if there is a breakdown in communication then 80% of the responsibility is in the mouth of the communicator…not the listener!!!!
Wake up!
December 11, 2007 — 8:02 am
Russell Shaw says:
I have to agree with Martin (above). I even thought of just calling you to cover what I felt was vital but didn’t want to leave a false impression there for everyone else.
>It wasnโt solely because two mailings failed so dismally that we stopped mailing. There was a very visible decline over time, which then culminated in our loss of faith.
>>1) The message was bad.
>It was the same message that had gained so much traction over the years. It was the same message which resonates so well on my blog, and in my office, and on the road during seminars. No, donโt think it was the message.
Here is the problem. The correct “button” is what they will reach for NOW. Buttons change. If they did not all advertisers could write an ad in 1950, never change the copy, and go right on running that very same ad in the same exact places and have it work just like it always did. But times change and ideas change. What the customer thinks changes, as does “what they will reach for”. Sometimes the “item” that they seem to be reaching for is still the same (coolness or hipness in clothing, for example) but what “represents coolness” has changed. Same thing in our business. We can conclude that investors will always want a safe and profitable investment – that part is quite easy. We know that and all the marketing people know that. But failure to recognize and apply that what “represents” (the button) that TODAY has changed leads to marketing failure.
There are only a few possibilities here: either the message was “bad” or the list was “bad”. That’s it. One or the other. Just those two. Trying to reach the wrong demographic or trying to reach them with the wrong message. I suspect the message or the medium. The public will tend to see the medium AS part of the message. For example, as an aside, me giving my message on TV makes it far more “important” than if I sent it to them in a postcard. That isn’t my point here at all, though. If the demographic you are promoting to is correct then the message MUST be wrong. It can be exactly what worked before and still be “wrong” for today. Oh, it’s close. But not “it”. Changing times, changing ideas have changed people’s ideas of what is now “good”.
In the same way that we wouldn’t sit a Catholic and a Mormon across from each other and say, “convert him” – what they believe IS what they believe and it is beyond difficult (impossible?) to change those beliefs – successful marketing applies this very same principle. A few short years ago people “belived” that real estate was a “good” thing to invest in. Today few of them believe that. A few short years ago buying residential real estate EQUALED making money in the mind of the customer. Today, there are few people who are thinking that. This is the problem. All successful marketing must align with something they already believe to be true – otherwise they won’t reach for it. It isn’t a current correct button (something that represents what they want). We know they want profit and security but it is totally simplistic to think that just chanting those words will impact the consumer. Many ad people try that and get the results they deserve. More to the point, what currently represents (in the mind of the customer) profit and security? Find that and you have the correct ‘button”. For now, anyway. It will change again, and we may not know that until after our ad no longer works. This is the real problem in all marketing. What are the current buttons?
December 11, 2007 — 10:14 am
Jeff Brown says:
Brian — You make sense — we’ll see.
December 11, 2007 — 10:18 am
Jeff Brown says:
Martin — I’ll assume you own your own business and have marketed it to massive success. Thanks for your thoughts — I believe grass is green and the sky is blue too. ๐
December 11, 2007 — 10:25 am
Jeff Brown says:
Russell — As Martin pointed out, being too close can obscure the answer.
I agree with you about the message, as the list is golden.
What’s so frustrating is, it’s been my thinking the letters’ messages COULD’VE been sent in 1950 and been successful.
That’s obviously incorrect to be kind, and silly to be more direct. I get it. Expect a call. ๐
December 11, 2007 — 10:29 am