“I have an old squeaky toy that I keep around, even though I almost never play with it. Guess how often I share it with other dogs?”
That means all luxury homes, but especially second homes – by definition ostentatiously-wasted money. Redfin has made much of second-home purchases over the last year, but Redfin can also demonstrate that the fever of this real estate market tracks perfectly with the inverse of each home’s TransitScore: The harder a house is to get to from rioters, the higher the price.
Taking account of that – “Let’s buy a place where we can work-from-home far-from-rioters” – how many of last year’s second-home purchases will turn into this year’s permanent residences? How much of last year – in all single-family-detached homes – was a two-step buy-and-bail?
I’m not implying financial chicanery, just strategy amidst uncertain circumstances. How the future shakes out depends on whether the buyers can continue to work from home. But if there are people sitting on two houses while they try to figure out which one to shed – that implies future market weakness on both ends, as the artificial withholding of inventory wanes.
Bad for Pacaso? You figure that out. I think they have no business masquerading as a business: I think they have discovered what I knew from the first – everyone hates sharing with strangers – and are attempting to soldier on to an IPO despite the emperor’s very-hairy nudity. If they care to dispel any of those suspicions, I’m easy to find – as Pacaso’s many enemies already know.
But a weakening in demand for houses in second-home locations will be very bad for the suckers who already bought Pacaso time-shares. You paid double at the top of the market, y’all. You’re going to be together for a while, like it or don’t…
In other news:
Housing Wire: Home sales are beginning to stall as buyers hit their limit.
Redfin.com: Housing Market Update: Pending Sales Dip, Price Drops Becoming More Common.
CNBC: Unicorn start-up Pacaso seeks to capitalize on surging vacation home prices.
Yahoo Finance: Almost nobody is repaying their student loans.
City Journal: The People v. Critical Race Theory.
The New York Post: Foolish schools going for woke — lagging US kids need 3 Rs, not race theory.
