“Imagine if one-third of all dogs were puppies!”
My naming convention is obvious, and that one little search informs more than half of my world: The majority of the properties we manage fit that profile, as does half or more of everything I sell. I literally am a ‘neighborhood specialist’ without every intending to be.
Here are two things that are interesting about that search:
First, because inventory is in such short supply, I have to look at everything in Coldwater Springs to understand anything. Even going back only a month on Closed transactions is unreliable, with numbers moving so fast. Comping just for comparability sends you too far back in time, so you have to figure out where you stand by order-of-precedence, as well. Oh, well. It’s a great time to be a lister, and it is a wonderful time to be an experienced lister.
But: Second: Being trod upon, the worm will turn. That search has been rock-steady at 9 units for many months. Almost nothing ever Active, and then only for a few days, the rest either Pending or Closed. Now we’re at 14 hits – and climbing, the trend would suggest. One Active, stupidly overpriced so it may last a while. One Coming Soon. And, disturbingly, three Under Contract/Accepting Backups.
Greedy sellers and weak listers go together, but still… Last year’s price surge was fueled by the riots, with displaced urbanites rediscovering their suburban roots with twice the house at half the price. The riots have abated, for now, for the most part, but homeowners in suburban boomtowns like Phoenix might entertain a Californian paranoia: From Phoenix to Dayton or Decatur is also twice the house at half the price.
I don’t know that things have actually changed – “It’s just a gully. Just nerves.” – but if they haven’t they will. One third of all American dollars are less than a year old. That inflation will be paid for. Plan accordingly.
In other news:
Joel Kotkin: California is collapsing.
Joel Kotkin and Hügo Krüger: COVID-19 and the Ongoing Global Workplace Revolution.
The Washington Examiner: Rural Californians are fighting to reclaim their state, even if that means starting their own.
The Federalist: Biden’s Domestic War On Terrorism May Seek To Criminalize Political Dissent.
New York Post: How corporations surrendered to hard-left wokeness.
Brian Brady says:
“One third of all American dollars are less than a year old. ”
Read that again. That’s stunning
February 15, 2021 — 8:28 am
Greg Swann says:
I liked it, too. 😉 A nice way of understanding the inflation we will be paying down.
February 15, 2021 — 8:36 am