Overnight News: Hey, Redfin: Is it really “Catch a Falling Knife” if you’re redlining drastically to stave off exsanguination?

Want me to tell you the secret to being right most of the time? Bet the odds. What will happen is what has happened. Not always, but most of the time. Hard lesson to learn – particularly when you have billions to burn and a burning need to buck the odds on every bet.

So: RedfinNow is expanding its iBuying business into two new markets: Seattle and San Francisco. I’ve been mocking Redfin for months for its rose-colored riot-denial, but there is no bet more resounding that doubling down on dipshit.

Consider: The game the iBuyers have not yet played, despite The Incumbent’s crowing mid-Spring, is called “Catch a Falling Knife” – not just one, but hundreds. The iBuyers have lived for years in a perpetual Spring: Steady growth in prices with – count them – zero downturns. (So you know, El Incumbento, what happened this Spring was nothing and what has happened since is the riots.)

What happens to the iBuyers when all home values go down all at once?

What happens when the iBuyers’ own price cuts are leading the market-wide slashscade?

What happens when your bold plan to buy at 80% nets you a chance to sell at 60% – hundreds and hundreds of times?

“We’re all spending more time at home than ever before and many of us are dreaming of a home with a larger yard, a dedicated office, maybe even in a new city,” said Quinn Hawkins, head of RedfinNow. “Yet at the same time, the idea of selling your home before you’ve found a new place to move is daunting, especially if you’re moving out of town.”

Could not be plainer: They want to surf the deflation of two great American cities. The riot-denial thus becomes comprehensible: Seattle and San Francisco are “watered stock.” Redfin had been lying about the riots in order to prey upon their victims.

Their safety valve? More de facto redlining: “To qualify for RedfinNow, homes in Seattle and San Francisco need to fit certain parameters and the iBuying service will expand to additional neighborhoods and property types over time, Redfin said.”

Do you know what casinos are made of? Hubris. The fact that Redfin is betting on two cities that are demanding shithole status almost as loudly as Portland says a lot to me. Contrarian bets can make sense – to small-time gamblers who don’t mind losing everything.

My take: Software geeks are good at software. Redfin will learn nothing without losing a lot, but in the meantime they could work up a RiotScore – I’ve done all the scut-work – to help them figure out how to redline shitholes entirely.

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