Downturn? Hasn’t started yet. I don’t like being the bearer of bearish news, but the shit-hammer will be obvious, when it falls.
Primus: Many, many jobs are not coming back. Vacation rentals have cratered. Notices of Default will be mailing soon. Inventory will surge, relative to demand. Prices will fall. When accrued equity has been bled away, actual foreclosures will ensue.
Secundus: The anti-profit sector (government, schools, hospitals, charities) will soon crash from lost revenue. The jobs lost are those currently buoying the coronavirus-disrupted market. Second wave of defaults/listings/foreclosures.
Tertius: Whether or not the grasshopper states get away with fleecing the ant states – note that the Republic itself is at risk from this larceny; what does that do for confidence? – cadillac pensions in the grasshopper states will be getting a haircut. Third wave of defaults/listings/foreclosures?
It took us 14 years to get from where we were in 2006 to where we are right now.
How long until we get back here?
Don’t ask Glenn Kelman. He clearly does not have a clue.
