This is me in yesterday’s Arizona Republic (permanent link):
Not all neighborhoods feeling a downturn
There are neighborhoods in the Phoenix area where the housing downturn is barely discernible.
How can that be? News reports are full of doom and gloom stories. Defaults, foreclosures and interest rates are up, with mortgages resetting seemingly at whim. If the news is always bad, how can it be good at the same time?
In fact, in some parts of the Valley prices have not fallen, with some neighborhoods actually experiencing continued appreciation. Inventories are up all over, but, so far, we haven’t seen much in the way of desperation selling.
We track a slice of Valley real estate as an indicator of where the market might be headed. We look at newer mid-sized homes in freeway-accessible suburbs. These were the homes that led the market on the way up, and they’ve suffered more than others on the way down.
So how bad is it out there? The homes we track are down 13.41% from the peak in December of 2005. That’s not insignificant. If you bought (or refinanced) a home like this any time after May of 2005, you’ve probably lost money. On the other hand, if you bought your home in January of 2004, you’re still up by around 58%. If you put 20% down, that’s a 290% cash-on-cash return. Better yet, as bad as things have been, there is only about seven months of inventory on the market, suggesting that prices may not fall much farther.
On the other hand, MLS Area 323 in the West Valley runs from Northern to the I-10, from 43rd Avenue west to 115th Avenue, a large and very diverse housing stock. Available inventory is huge, more than a twelve months’ supply. But, interestingly, prices in that region have only dropped by about 2.75% since December of 2005.
Don’t run down the street in celebration. Interest rates are flighty, and sub-prime or even low-down-payment conforming mortgages may be a thing of the past. But, even so, acknowledging that things may get worse before they get better, they haven’t been that bad so far.
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