The pitch…
That’s a sweet offer in the headline, don’t you think? It’s like Batman meets Ironman, but it’s all real — achievable now, no super-human powers required.
Not enough? You want more?
How’s this?
I can show you how to all-but-eliminate every sort of street crime.
I can show you how to protect any real estate or personal property you own from theft, mayhem, mishap or from simple maintenance oversights.
I can show you how to resolve almost every kind of civil dispute — without courts, without attorneys — and usually without rancor.
I can show you how to perfect your sales praxis to an amazing state of efficiency.
Hell, I can even increase your chance of successfully hooking-up at the singles bar.
I can cut your commute time, maximize your work-day productivity and save you from getting Aunt Whatshername’s name wrong when you see her.
Watch me: I can show you how to create a brand new trillion-dollar industry that will spin off dozens of start-ups as it is aborning and hundreds more later on.
I can show you how to mine an incredible new source of vast, uncountable wealth, a source no one has ever thought of before. I can put you there, at the dawn of a new age of human productivity — a pioneer, a prospector, and ultimately a tycoon in a brand new way of making money.
As you gaze upon that incredible motherlode of riches — knowing that there are unfathomable trillions more buried within it — I have one simple question to ask you:
To gain access to those riches — no fear of crime, no more petty lawsuits, better closing skills on and off the job, plus hundreds of new businesses, each one throwing off astounding new opportunities — would you be willing to correct one simple error in your thinking?
Are you willing to consider the proposition? Stay tuned…
The moth, the cat and the ontological nature of error…
Oh, good grief! Was there a fifty-cent word in that subhead?
There was, alas.
The good news is that, if you can hang in there, and if you have the guts to change a fundamental error in your thinking, I can show you how to improve your life dramatically by being right where you have been wrong all along, until now.
The bad news is this: That fundamental error in your thinking is — obviously, necessarily — a philosophical error.
Like it or don’t, we’re talking about philosophy, and if you simply can’t bear to stretch your brain around big words, feel free to go do something you enjoy more. Philosophy isn’t for everyone, after all, and there is certainly more to life than fighting crime and saving the girl — banking big bucks in the process.
But, but, but…! Philosophy doesn’t concern itself with comic-book-style thrills and chills!
You are mistaken, but that’s hardly a surprise. You’re mistaken about virtually everything that matters.
But here’s more good news: The fact that you have been wrong about just about everything for just about all your life does not matter. What matters is that now you have the opportunity to be right.
So let’s take a look at the world and see what we can understand about it.
It’s summer in the city, and so every moth spends every night flying senselessly toward every light source it can find. It doesn’t matter why moths do this, and moths don’t matter very much in the larger scheme of things. But this is what moths do, and we’ve all known this fact by first-hand observation since we were children.
The other night, I was watching a moth gamely trying to strafe a light fixture in our kitchen, and gamely failing to get to the light again and again.
Why was it failing? Because there was a dual-pane window standing between the moth and the light. The moth would race toward the light again and again, colliding with the glass again and again. It would start to fall when it hit the glass, then regain control of its wings and fly around to make another run at the light.
In cinematic comedies, this kind of scenario is called a pratfall — a repeated failure to achieve some objective, with each failed attempt leading to some sort of physical pain. Big yucks when it’s Lucille Ball or Jim Carrey suffering the consequences.
It’s not that funny when a moth does it, but it is instructive, if you’re of a mind to learn from the world around you.
Why did the moth keep coming back for more? Because whatever passes for a brain in a moth was not sufficient to apprehend the true facts of the situation. The moth’s behavior was directed by a moth-ware analogue of this theoretical proposition: If you can see a light, you can fly toward that light. I don’t know how a moth’s brain guides that moth’s behavior, but we can infer from the evidence that a moth’s brain is not equipped to comprehend a substance that is simultaneously transparent to light and yet impermeable to moths.
There’s more: One of our cats was on the other side of the glass, striving desperately — teeth, paws and claws — to get at that moth. What’s the theory-analogue? If you can see the prey, you can capture the prey.
Both the moth and the cat were in error, of course — from our point of view, that is. It’s wrong to speak of an animal operating on its instincts or some other form in-born programming as being in error, since to be in error implies that the error could be corrected.
This is false to fact with respect to animals. My dog Shyly scratches at the floor every time she lays down. Why? Her instincts “teach” her that there could be snakes or bugs on the ground. With treats and correction, I could train her not to scratch the floor, but she cannot ever discover on her own and I cannot ever communicate to her the obvious fact that a snake cannot be hiding within a solid piece of ceramic tile.
But Shyly, the cat and the moth are not in error about the universe. Their minds are simply unable to apprehend and respond to facts that are not already pre-programmed into their mental functioning.
For a life-long student of epistemology, you sure do get a lot wrong…
What we are talking about is the intersection of three important branches of philosophy: Ontology, epistemology and teleology.
O, the pain! Three fifty-cent words in a row! How will you survive…?
Fret not. This is all very simple, I promise.
Ontology is being. It is the branch of philosophy that concerns itself with the actual, unchangeable nature of real things, regardless of what anyone thinks about them. The impermeability of an unbroken window to moths is absolute and inescapable regardless of how the moth or the cat behave. Their failure to achieve their respective goals is the consequence of this objective ontological impermeability, and there is nothing either the moth, the cat or you can do to change this fact by means of changing your thinking. If you were to toss a rock through the window, the whole scenario would change, but, so long as the glass is unbroken, the events I described will repeat themselves in perpetuity.
Do you see why? The glass can’t be penetrated by the moth, but the lack of an appropriate response to this situation is also an ontological fact: Moths and cats don’t have the built-in brain-power to modify their behavior in the presence of previously-unforeseen facts.
Why is that? Because they can’t learn in any meaningful way. The cat can “learn” where its food bowl is located, and Shyly “learned” to pee outdoors with just a few days of training. But the why of that “knowledge” — the why of anything — is beyond every animal’s mental abilities, so far as we know.
Epistemology is knowing. More exactly, it is knowing the why of what you know. Epistemology is the theory of knowledge: How do you know what you know? How can you reliably verify your knowledge? How can you test and validate or invalidate new propositions?
Why is the error the moth and the cat are making immediately obvious to you, when those creatures can never, ever discover that they are making an error, nor even that errors can exist and that they can be corrected by a process of rational thought and the choice to do better going forward?
The error is obvious to you because — even though you probably didn’t know this — you have been a life-long student of epistemology.
But that is itself an ontological fact: As the moth’s nature is to race toward the light, yours is to discover and correct errors.
How?
By choice.
But, but, but!! Nature isn’t chosen!
There’s some truth to that. The moth cannot choose not to fly toward the light — even though it fails to reach it again and again — but you sure can choose not to discover and correct the errors in your thinking. The truth is, you do it a lot, especially in those moments when being right or wrong matters most.
A more precise statement would be that you have been a life-long student of epistemology as the existential expression of ontology and teleology: You are born with the capacity to observe reality, to reason rationally about your observations, and to guide your behavior according to your reason — but you don’t have to use those abilities. Those capacities don’t have to be cultivated by your parents, and, even if they are, you don’t have to exercise them.
Compared to the actions and reactions of inanimate matter, of planets and billiard balls and chemicals in beakers, the behavior of animals can seem fairly autonomous. But in fact, with one known exception, every organism’s behavior is governed by in-born and ultimately inviolable pre-programming. The moth can’t give up chasing lights, choosing to chase penny-stock windfalls instead, and even though my Shylygirl eats nothing but the most savory crunchy meat-pellets, she cannot ever declare herself to be a gourmet.
The exception would be you, of course, and me — human beings. The capacity to reason and to choose is born within you, but those natural abilities had be be cultivated by your parents for you to make use of them. A kitten raised by dogs grows up to be a cat, but a genetic homo sapiens raised by wolves grows up to be a crippled, pathetic imitation wolf. A human being is an artifact — a man-made thing. A genetic homo sapiens is a product of ontology, but a reasoning, choosing human being is the result of both ontology and teleology.
I am most likely to say that teleology is shoulding, but it is equally true to say that teleology is choosing, or, even more basically, that teleology is the pursuit of values.
What values “should” a moth pursue? Wool by day, light by night.
What values “should” a cat pursue? Light-bulb-seared moths, freshly toasted to a golden brown.
But that’s too easy, isn’t it? When we “should” with other organisms, all we are really doing is restating their teleologically-analogous ontologically-consequent behavior and insisting that they “should” do what they cannot avoid doing. To say that a cat “should” drive a tractor and a moth “should” write symphonies is simply absurd. Animal behavior is teleological in the sense that the animal normally does pursue the values it requires in order to survive and to persist as that particular type of organism. But none of this behavior is reasoned or chosen by the animal, and so it is nothing like value-pursuing behavior as we would describe it in humans.
Moths and cats and dogs can do things that we see as being stupid — comically ineffectual — but only human beings can be in error.
And, man, are we good at it!
How can you be right about virtually everything and yet still be wrong about almost everything that matters…?
Here’s a fun little challenge: Give your cat a bath. If you started doing this when the cat was a kitten, you just might get away with it. But if you try to bathe an adult cat, it will be you taking a bath — a soapy bloodbath — instead.
Even better, persuade a moth to fly upside down. How hard could that be?
Ah, but you know that can’t be done, don’t you? Your cat might take a bath on its own — if there are birds in your birdbath — but a moth cannot fly upside down and a dog cannot learn to play chess. These are obvious ontological facts, and you’ve known them — with zero room for doubt in your mind — since you were a child.
So here’s an even better challenge: Raise my right hand.
Can’t do that, either, can you? You can bathe a cat, if you insist, but you can’t cause a moth to fly upside down, and you can’t cause me to raise my hand. Those things are ontologically impossible, no matter how much you might want to do them.
So here’s another feat for you to attempt: When I express a fact or opinion you don’t like, silence me. Glower at me with all your might. Get all your friends to glower at me, too. Set up a #hashtag on Twitter so you can glower together electronically. Throw raw eggs at my porch. Throw rocks through my windows. Have the FBI come by to question me. Have Congress pass a law denouncing me.
By any of these means will you have silenced me?
No. You could kill me, if you’re that kind of brute, or you could erect some kind of wall of censorship around me. But even then you will not have caused me to be silent, you will have simply tried to find some way to shout me down. And even then you will fail, since you cannot ever stop the ringing of my words in the ears of the people who have heard them in the past. You cannot stop them from sharing those words with other people, or simply revisiting them — inaudibly to you — in the silence and solitude of their own minds.
You cannot raise my hand, you cannot silence my speech, you cannot control my purposive behavior in any way. You can push me around like a mannequin, you can lock me up, beat me, torture me, even kill me. But you cannot cause me to take any sort of purposive action against my will.
This is a simple — and completely obvious — ontological fact.
Why is it interesting?
Because this is the error in your thinking. Even though you know beyond all doubt that you cannot control other people’s behavior, still you insist to yourself in dozens of ways that you can.
Want to stop speeding on the highways? Raise the fines.
Want to make sure you will succeed in business? Outlaw your competition.
Want to silence some street-corner Socrates who is undermining your treasured illusions? Glower harder!
In each one of these cases, and hundreds more I could name, the strategy that is being followed in pursuit of the objective is useless for achieving that objective. In simpler language: You are a moth ramming a sheet of plate glass again and again, insisting by your behavior that the glass must somehow give way eventually.
I am sick of error. It’s not interesting to me, and there is no benefit of mine to be realized from chastising you for having been wrong about just about everything for just about all your life. You have been wrong — wildly, madly, persistently, obstinately, absurdly, comically wrong — but none of that matters now. Now is the time for learning how to be right.
So: If, as a matter of absolute and inescapable ontological fact, you cannot ever control another person’s purposive behavior, what conclusions can we draw?
How about this, for a start: Stop trying! A fool might try to bathe a cat — once! — but only a lunatic would insist on trying to bathe that cat again and again and again, like the moth dive-bombing the window.
Foreswearing vice isn’t much of a virtue, but its corollary is: Instead of insisting that you must, somehow, have the power to compel other people’s behavior, try this instead:
Act upon them as they actually are.
You would never, ever think to take a nice big piece of river rock and put it on the meat slicer so you could make yourself a thinly-sliced-rock sandwich. What is there in your epistemology that leads you do conclude that you can somehow cause people to drive the way you want them to by threatening them? Even if you made this error in the first place, surely all those cars whizzing past you will have made it plain by now that your plan isn’t working.
With one exception, human beings respond appropriately to every entity, every action or event, every attribute of matter with which we come into contact. Within the limits of our epistemologically-verified knowledge, we conform our teleological goal-pursuit to the actual absolute and inescapable ontological identity of the thing we are dealing with or acting upon.
The one exception would be you, of course, and me — human beings. This is not new. Whether the means are religion, the organized thuggery of government or just simple glowering, people have been trying to push each other around since there were people to push around.
The problem is it does not work. It cannot work.
If you glower hard enough or threaten convincingly enough or thrash your victim soundly enough, you might induce that person to do whatever it is you want done. But you will not have caused that behavior. Your victim could refuse to do anything — or he could turn on you and thrash you to the death you so richly deserve. But even if he seems to comply, you will not have persuaded that person of anything. He will simply be doing what he thinks will get you to stop punishing him.
So unless you put a cop right beside me in the passenger seat, you can figure that I’ll be driving at the speed I choose — not the speed you think you have insisted upon — just about all the time. Unless you manage to eradicate every atom of cocaine from the face of the earth, some folks are going to snort all they can get, regardless of how stiff you make the penalties for getting caught. And if you should get the idea you can silence anyone, ever, I invite you to Google the word “Socrates” and see what comes up.
You cannot control other people’s purposive behavior, so you should stop trying. But other people can control their own behavior perfectly, so acting upon them as they actually are can, should and has proved to be mutually profitable for all of human history.
Your “right to privacy” pretty much ends at your skin…
By way of a practical example, here are some news stories I have collected lately:
In Royston, England, the local constabulary is monitoring every vehicle passing through town with video-cameras, image-processing software and a database look-up of license plates. The goal? Sniff out bad guys.
But The Economist fears that face-recognition software may undermine presumptive privacy.
Each one of these stories turns on the so-called “right to privacy” we read about so often in alarmist technology stories. And that angle, in its turn, turns on a false idea of privacy.
I’ve been making this argument for years: Privacy is an artifact of inefficiency:
It’s a simple enough idea: What you’ve thought of all your life as privacy has simply been a function of inefficient data processing tools. The more efficacious the means of acquiring and storing data become, the less privacy — unintentional ignorance by others of observable facts — you will have.
If you find this idea repellent — dang…
It is what it is, and it’s absurd to rebel against it. We are real, physical entities. Our purposive actions sometimes have secondary physical consequences that are potentially observable to other people — and to data acquisition devices. Your best hope of achieving privacy, going forward, is to expire. Short of that, you might try to exist in some sort of extra-physical way. And short of that, you might try doing everything you do where no one — and nothing — else can observe you. And short of all that, swallow hard and prepare to have every fact of your life known, at least potentially, by anyone or everyone else.
If you insist that your presence in a public place or on someone else’s private property must somehow be “private” — guess what? You’re a moth slamming into a window.
If you insist that I have no right to match a photograph of you I just took in my place of business with the 227 photos of you that you and your friends have thoughtfully uploaded to Facebook and Flickr — guess what? You’re a cat trying to capture a moth through a window pane.
If you insist that no one should be able to take a photo of your license plate and run it against a database of outstanding warrants — guess what? You just might be a criminal!
Whatever objection you might name to internet-broadcast video-streaming, to face- or object-recognition software, or to data interpretation or database look-ups resulting from the use of those tools — guess what? Your objections are meaningless.
The facts of your life that you cause to come to be knowable by your own actions are, thereafter, potentially knowable to anyone. To insist that something cannot be so when it plainly and obviously cannot not be so is simply verbalized insanity…
But what about rape…?!??!!
I’m going to keep playing with the example of image-analysis, but I want to deal with one more vitally important philosophical issue before we press on.
What’s the topic?
It’s this:
What about rape…?!??!!
I am an anarchist — an anarcho-capitalist to be precise. I make no secret of this fact — very much the contrary. But the reality of my life is that I can’t say, “Taxes on hot dog vendors should be reduced,” without someone shrieking, “But what about rape…?!??!!”
Rape is apparently so horrifying for champions for coercive-monopoly dispute-resolution that they can’t think about anything else, when the subject of reducing government in any way comes up.
Fine.
I’m going to show you how to rid the developed world of 95% or more of all forcible rapes — passively and peacefully, with no need for cops, courts or jails.
How are we going to do that?
By acting upon other people as they really are, and not as we insist in our insane ravings that they must be.
So let’s send some sweet young thing out into the world. If you can’t picture her for yourself, just rent a Batman movie. Watch for her a few minutes into the first act — maybe even before the credits roll. Nice girl, nice looking, nicely dressed. She’s just a sweet kid from the farm out to have a good time in the big city — so cue the ominous music.
But on her breast is a broach, and within that broach is a video camera — maybe more than one camera, as on the Xbox Kinect. All the cameras do is stream: They take in the visible data in our young lady’s surroundings and transmit it in real time to the internet. That’s all. No on-board data-processing at all, just video and the ambient audio.
But when the video gets to the cloud, all kinds of interesting things happen. Every face that can be gleaned from the video is run against every other image in the face-recognition database on the file-server. Virtually everyone who gets anywhere near our tender ingenue can be positively identified in seconds.
Including — guess who? — every man who, in the past, has been accused or convicted of forcible rape. All the other bad guys, too: Muggers, personal-loan dead-beats and creeps who stay the night but never call you back for a second date.
Do you see? Instead of rebelling against your own and everyone else’s physical visibility — an absolute and inescapable ontological fact — if instead you embrace that fact and all that it implies, your life is — just like that — substantially more safe.
The software in the cloud can collect and organize much more data than anyone cares about. But if our young friend is being chatted up by a potential rapist, one quick phone call or text message from the server is all she needs to protect herself.
The immediate consequence is that every sane rapist would be out of the rape business as soon as this technology became publicly known. That’s how I can eliminate 95% or more of all forcible rapes. Most rapists are sane enough to try to avoid detection, and so they will cease to commit rapes as soon as their chances of avoiding detection vanish.
I can do better than this, though. It seems highly plausible to me that there are common pre-cursors to rape and other crimes of violence that could be statistically abstracted from a large enough video database of human behavior. Not only can my software alert our sweet young thing about known rapists, it can warn her about troubling behavior being exhibited in real time by men who have not been accused of rape. It’s possible she could end up dismissing a decent guy whose needs are just a little too urgent. But she won’t get raped.
Take note: No cops, no courts, no jails — and no rapes.
So: What about rape…?!??!!
My solution works and yours does not. Which of us is better at fighting crime…? Which of us really cares about rape…?
If we can eliminate rape, we can eliminate virtually all street crime…
I want to put a video-streaming broach on your breast or a tie-bar at your collar or a camera mounted on your eyeglasses or on your Bluetooth headset. I want you streaming live video to my servers wherever you go. Turn it off at home if you want — I would not — but I want to see and interpret everything you see when you are out in the world.
There’s more: I want to mount an intelligent panning-tilting-zooming (PTZ) video camera on your house. I can watch your stuff when you’re home or away, and I can watch my little piece of your street all the time. Give me enough PTZ cameras on enough houses and businesses, and my software can see everything going on outdoors all the time.
While I’m at it, I’d like to have PTZ cameras mounted high on light poles and traffic lights at key intersections all over town. Now, on top of fighting crime, I can monitor traffic, and, in due course, heuristically develop traffic-diversion strategies for dealing with accidents and break-downs as soon as they occur.
But, meanwhile, all of that video has eliminated virtually all street crime. Why? Because even if the crime itself goes unphotographed and unstreamed, all of the events leading up to and succeeding the crime will have been recorded. It would be easy enough to recreate the entire event, before, during and after, with only the actual crime itself being omitted from the assembled video. Not even Johnny Cochran could beat evidence that conclusive.
There will always be crazy people who will still commit crimes even if they know they cannot escape detection. But there is nothing you or anyone can do about that. Lightning does strike.
But instead of insisting that we can threaten people into not committing crimes — even though this strategy has never worked for all of human history — we can choose to act teleologically in a way that is consonant with our understanding of human ontology. When sane criminals learn that they cannot possibly escape detection of their crimes, they will become former criminals — peacefully, passively and with the persuasion to behave better having been effected from the inside, the only way it can be effected.
Who needs Batman when you’ve got his trusty factotum, Alfred…?
Think about this: That camera I’ve convinced you to wear on your body is the entry point to the world’s most perfect contact database.
On my end of the transaction, on the server side, every face I can put a name to is in my facial-recognition database. Once I have the name, I have a whole lot more: Twitter, Facebook and Linked-In profiles for a start — including perfectly-up-to-date (maintained-by-you) contact information — along with all the warm-networking connections those profiles imply. I can see every blog post you’ve written, every comment you’ve left, every mention of you in the media. It’s plausible I know a ton about your finances, and I can infer a great deal without much hard data to work from.
Don’t like that? Dang. I’m not snooping. I’m simply collecting information you and people you know have freely volunteered to make available to me.
But when you come into video range of one of my clients, suddenly you are a record in that person’s contact database, as well. So everything I know about you in a general way comes across, along with every inference that can be drawn about you from people in my client’s warm network who also know you. And then as you and my client interact, that local contact database record gets substantially richer over time.
What’s the benefit? Let’s say my client is a car salesman and you saunter into the showroom on a Saturday afternoon. You’re wearing khakis and a polo shirt with beat-up dock-siders. From what my client can see of you, you could be as rich as Croesus or as broke as joke. Could it be of benefit for him to know that you have an imputed FICO score of 580 and a presumptive annual income of $40,000 or less? Would my client be interested to learn that you are a fleet buyer for a car rental company? Is there any chance my client might be able to make something of the fact that your brother-in-law is Warren Buffett? This is a vertical market up-sell from the hardware and software we already have in place — a start-up built on the existing architecture.
Let’s go back to the bar in San Francisco. I can give you a headcount easily. I can tell you the ratio of boys to girls. But with facial recognition software and database mining tools, I can give a horny young man a short-list of the five ladies in that bar who, historically, seem to have had the roundest heels, and I can give a proper young lady a short-list of the five guys in that bar most likely to call back for a second date.
With hardware and software alone, I can target-market anyone for anything. This is all eminently doable — no new statistical or data-processing theory required — it just waits the doing.
But what about “Big Brother”…?!?
Oh, but it’s “Big Brother” you say you’re afraid of?
That’s the beauty of this idea. The antidote to secrecy is transparency. “Big Brother” is only a threat to you if he has evidence on you — real or faked — that you can’t challenge. If all of this video is available to anyone all the time, all over the net, there is no way to fake evidence against you. If you’re cheating on your spouse, you’re screwed, and not in the good way. But if you have nothing to hide, your perfect pre-emptive defense — from everyone, not just “Big Brother” — is to hide nothing.
Meanwhile, here are two simple facts that tend to put your professed fear of “Big Brother” in doubt:
First, “Big Brother” needs nothing more than a jail cell and a set of brass knuckles to get the job done. Lo-tech don’t mean no-tech.
And second, you are doing absolutely nothing right now to rid your life of the threat of “Big Brother.” Chances are, you’re doing everything in your power to make the state bigger and more terrifying. Nice going…
Oh, but that’s not the “Big Brother” you’re afraid of?
The axis around which the modern Luddite movement turns is this: Governments, which murder people with great frequency and which commit endless crimes against everyone all the time, are not to be feared. No, the “Big Brother” to be feared — and legislated against — is that evil guy who wants to sell me stuff I want to buy at prices I want to pay. Secret police, yes, database mining, no!
But, but, but…! He Zestimated my credit score — and damnitall if he wasn’t right! That’s not fair!
Dang…
The truth might hurt, but it’s still the truth. I myself am a serial deadbeat with delayed tax-filings and many, many black marks on my credit score. We are Realtors who survived the Phoenix market by clinging by our claws, but we have come close to losing our own house twice in the last couple of years, and I don’t know that we’re out of the woods even now. I’m not proud to state these facts, but these are the conclusions I would draw if I saw them on a credit application.
The facts of my life — and yours — are what they are. They cannot be erased by being denied, no matter how vehemently, and they are no more or less true for being known to other people. That much is simply factually wrong: If the facts of your life can be known, they will be known. You can’t stop this from occurring, so it benefits you nothing to try, or to pretend somehow that you have succeeded.
Worse, when you buy into that Luddite line — Government is safe, but commerce is somehow too risky to be endured — you are empowering the state — the real Big Brother — by default. I’ve put a lot of cops out of business in this essay, but the ones who remain will always be on their very best behavior — when the cameras are rolling.
In that respect, as in all others I can think of, acting upon other people as they actually are is far superior to trying to bend them to your will. If you’re looking for your best defense from Big Brother, I’ve got that covered, too…
So: How much would you pay…?
I just showed you how to build a brand new trillion-dollar industry as a secondary consequence of fighting crime.
If you will let me put a broach or a stickpin on your shirt, I will eliminate the fear of street crime from your life — along with virtually every kind of civil suit, since hyper-abundant video takes all of the fun out of lying for lucre. On top of all that, I’ll give you the ultimate kick-ass contact-management database so you can keep track of everyone you come into contact with — including Aunt Whatshername.
How much would you pay for all that?
But wait. There’s more!
If you will let me put a PTZ camera on your house or business, I will protect all of your stuff and a lot of your neighbors’ stuff around the clock. I’ll watch for bad guys, of course, but I might just send you an email if I happen to notice paint peeling or water ponding on the roof.
How much would you pay for that?
But there’s still more!
If you will let me put my cameras where I need them on the streets, I will give you GPS traffic directions that are rewritten by probability algorithms, on the fly, as traffic conditions change.
Would that be worth a little something to you?
Now stop to think about how much of the state we just got rid of — cops, courts, jails.
Does that represent any sort of savings to you?
And think! I’ve talked about a few vertical market opportunities, but there are hundreds more still to be thought of. What can we hope to learn from a massively large, all-but-comprehensive historical and real-time library of video imagery? Whatever answer we might name, we won’t know the best answers until we’re a year or a decade into this technology.
So how much would you pay?
You can name your own price, but I like the internet solution: Free for the basic package, more for the up-sells. What makes this work is the availability of the video feeds, so my impulse is to give the cameras and the basic software services away for free, in exchange for all resale rights to the video.
Feel free to offer more if you like…
So what’s next…?
This is all very simple. In this practical example, all we did was stop pretending that we can be physically invisible because we want to be, and instead embraced the technological and commercial opportunities implied by our absolute and inescapable ontological visibility.
This is a fun idea, and that’s why I played with it, but the important lessons to take away from this essay are these:
1. Stop acting upon other people as they are not. Stop insisting to yourself that you can control their purposive behavior. You cannot.
2. Start acting upon people as they actually are. You may not like it that every other person is exactly like you — exclusively internally motivated — but denying this fact leads to failure and frustration, while accepting it will produce results and riches beyond your wildest dreams.
If you like this essay, I would be grateful if you would promote my memes into your warm networks — email, your social graph, in real life.
And if you have serious money and a serious interest in these ideas, you might think about sending me a contract and a check before someone else does. I have big-dollar horizontal and vertical market ideas growing out my ears.
But the most important thing is simply to be aware of how foolishly you have behaved, in the past, with respect to the absolute and inescapable ontological autonomy — the sovereignty — of other people, and how much better you can do, now and in the future, by acting upon other people as they actually are…
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Brian Brady says:
Crickets.
We’ve all seen “The Truman Show” and our ultimate fear is that there is a wizard behind the curtain, changing the weather, producing accidents, etc., etc.
August 1, 2011 — 11:13 am
Greg Swann says:
> Crickets.
The story of my life.
I invented a brand new video compression algorithm, to go along with the practical example, but there’s no point in even talking about that.
> We’ve all seen “The Truman Show” and our ultimate fear is that there is a wizard behind the curtain, changing the weather, producing accidents, etc., etc.
That’s the value of making everything wide open and transparent. You can’t tell lies unless you control the switchboard, the chokepoint. If everything is available to everyone — with massive, overlapping redundancy — at all times, the production of counterfeit signals would be pointless.
August 1, 2011 — 11:19 am
Greg Swann says:
Here’s one for you, though, Brian: How much would you pay to know with a high degree of certainty that no child molester will take a run at your daughter? You can’t get that value from the police, but I can get it for you — and for every other parent — for next to nothing.
August 1, 2011 — 11:29 am
Brian Brady says:
I don’t disagree with anything you’ve written. I trust the private sector much more than the overlords to keep me safe.
I like how you illustrated the paradoxical thinking to the privacy issue. We are told by the media to fear data mining because it might cause us to buy an extra pair of shoes on Zappos. The media swear that the FBI “isn’t really interested in us” when it, and our bank, roots through our statements.
August 1, 2011 — 12:18 pm
Cathleen Collins says:
I was glad when Greg came back to this idea, which he brought up in the post he linked to above, “Privacy is an an artifact of inefficiency,” because — I think — he does a better job in this essay explaining why railing against the idea of losing one’s privacy would be like my cat, Marquina, bitching about not having been able to have caught that moth. Except poor Marquina, clearly, didn’t/couldn’t understand the obstacle she was up against. But we are blessed with reasoning minds. So the idea that our lives become less and less private the more technology makes gathering and analyzing information more efficient is not really an idea — it’s reality. And the antidote to that reality? Is ceding more power to the government. Like it or not, we have the technology. Personally, I like it. But if I didn’t like it? What could I do? What are people doing? Maybe some, more philosophically consistent folks may become ludite hermits. But I think it will be more likely that any backlash against the gifts of technology will be to run to Uncle and ask him to coerce other people against using the gifts that the big babies don’t want other people to use.
I went back today and reread the comments to that 2008 article. It ended with Teri Lussier’s comment:
In Greg’s vision, no one is forced to wear a camera, nor to put one on her own private property. The decision to have those cameras will not be coerced by Big Brother. The cameras would proliferate as a matter of contract between consenting adults. But then, anything that anyone does in public — absolutely — will not be considered private. Why should it be? If I can observe something without trespassing, then it really is in the public domain. Why shouldn’t an entrepreneur take that data, analyze it and sell it back to someone who finds the data valuable? Nothing about this should come about as a government mandate, but neither should it be suppressed by government
interferenceregulation.My brother-in-law already has cameras surrounding his house, which he monitors on his big-screen TV. Plus, after an accident which he believes the other guy caused, but he was cited for, he has a camera running in his truck whenever he’s out driving. I’ve known this man most of our lives, and he’s as honest as a summer day in Phoenix is long. But no one is going to take my word for that — or his. But recorded proof has persuaded the long arm of the law against taking away his liberties more than once.
So, @Teri, I disagree with your proposition that
I think that as long as the cameras are mounted voluntarily on private property/persons, then nothing is forced. If you happen to appear in the picture, and the person whose camera has observed you has contracted with someone to stream his camera’s pictures for the vendor to analyze and resell, then again, nothing has been forced. Force occurs when you get a policeman to shut down those private citizens’ cameras, or to steal the entrepreneur’s work product — either to destroy it or to repurpose it for “sanctioned” uses, or when you act like a puerile celebrity and break the camera yourself.
As far as having the right to behave badly, there will be people who will still do so. Many might even deliberately flash or moon in defiance, so you might say that the knowledge of having a camera on them will bring out the worst in them — I think the internet reeks of examples of this already. But if serious criminals or even mischievous teenagers think twice and then again about committing crimes against persons or property because they understand that their crimes will be documented, then I think this is a very good thing. No one is being coerced to be better, but if people understand that there will be recorded evidence of their bad behavior, so they practice better self-control, that practice might very well result in them habituating behavior that will have a higher probability of introducing them to splendor.
August 1, 2011 — 2:24 pm
Teri Lussier says:
You are such an elegant thinker and writer, Cathy.
What comes to my mind is more like this- the high fructose corn syrup police will snap me getting my Diet Pepsi fix. Damn. Now my govt forced health care package is up for review. My on board camera catches me checking my phone while I’m driving down a long straight lonely country road. Darn. My insurance spikes. Yeah, all those things are bad for me but once it was thought to only be bad for me, not impacting anyone else. My loss of privacy inevitably means someone is going to poke their pointy nose into my habits. I don’t see how the busybodies of the world could resist.
But none of that really matters because I believe this is inevitable and while I don’t see the splendor in big brother nosing about my life, whining about it won’t bring a different outcome.
August 1, 2011 — 5:10 pm
Cathleen Collins says:
I agree with everything you say, Teri. But it is my hope that once people discover that we don’t need a police state in order to be safe from the bogey man, they might take the next step and disintermediate the State. And I further hope that this can be done without creating a pile of corpses. And then, if in a free market, your insurance premiums go up because of unsafe behavior, at least the premium is based on a rational market decision rather than irrational regulation.
August 1, 2011 — 5:34 pm
Greg Swann says:
Bless you, Teri, for getting Cathleen to talk.
Cathleen: > And then, if in a free market, your insurance premiums go up because of unsafe behavior, at least the premium is based on a rational market decision rather than irrational regulation.
You just created liability — and a huge new, very profitable vertical market application. If a car insurance company can exercise oversight over its policyholders’ driving, then it should do so, to absolve itself of claims of negligence. Teri may have just deepened her scowl, but even if she doesn’t relish having her driving supervised, every driver who doesn’t belong on the road will be on the sidewalk in very short order. That’s a bonus.
And, incidentally, several times in that post I teased for an expostulation like this: “Oh, yeah! So what’s your solution for reckless drivers!” When you refuse to understand that people are free no matter how many chains you pile on them, you miss the forest for the tree you yourself are chained to. My “solution” for reckless drivers is to sell the damn roads! It literally is not my business, nor yours, and it’s stupid for an imaginary “us” to try to run a business that none of us knows anything about. Entrepreneurs do a much better job of managing their own assets than governments do. Further, as above, making the roads private property creates liability. A road owner who does not ban bad drivers will get to pay for the injuries they cause.
We’re headed for driverless cars, anyway. The technology is GPS and collision-avoidance software, but the video traffic-control technology I talked about in the post would be even more efficient if it were able to talk directly to the vehicles.
I would add that these issues seem to me to amount to clutching desperately at nickels in a tornado of twenty dollar bills. The upside is so huge that any feared downside is dust in the wind. This technology can save women from rape and men from false accusations of rape. It can eliminate most child molestation and much child abuse. It can do everything I’ve talked about and much, much more. If the price for that is to be held accountable for one’s own actual, undoubted, uncontested behavior — that is, if the price is true justice — I think I’m doubly in favor of doing this.
Kudos to Brian and Teri for daring to speak up at all, but, so far, I haven’t heard any qualms that center on outcomes that are both unjust and possible. I’m not being a Pollyanna, but I think I was very careful to think this through properly. The ubiquitous video idea won’t go anywhere, because no one will be able to see it as I do and I have no money to do it myself, but this is a perfect example, I think, of how non-coercive dispute-resolution systems are far superior to the coercive-monopoly dispute-resolution system we have now. This is not just revolutionary new technology, this is freedom-tech: Big Brother is just an over-inflated thug, and those who do evil fear the light. I’m showing you how to achieve the results you want — to actually achieve them, where our current dispute-resolution system fails epidemically — without anyone pushing anyone else around.
August 1, 2011 — 6:22 pm
Teri Lussier says:
>If a car insurance company can exercise oversight over its policyholders’ driving, then it should do so, to absolve itself of claims of negligence. Teri may have just deepened her scowl,
No, that’s perfectly reasonable even to me. 😉 Not the best example I could have used. If I sign up to do this- Progressive Insurance advertises some form of safe driving monitor- that’s one thing. I fear it’ll be forced on me by Big Mother.
I don’t know if you saw this in today’s WSJ http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2011/08/01/tech-today-using-facebook-and-facial-recognition-to-id-random-people/
>I’m showing you how to achieve the results you want — to actually achieve them, where our current dispute-resolution system fails epidemically — without anyone pushing anyone else around.
You’ve done a beautiful job of it, Greg, even as it makes me squirm because I believe it will be used to force me into certain behaviors that someone else has decided would be “best” for me. Splendor should be voluntary, which goes back to the comment Cathy pulled… I don’t know. This is one of those posts I’ll have to reread over and over.
However, I do see this happening here and read about it happening in other shrinking cities. The police force has downsized significantly so people are taking proactive measures to secure their own property with security cameras, and posting video of perps on blogs. When cities like Detroit are talking about shuttering entire neighborhoods, this would be once way for anyone who wants to stay behind to do their own policing.
I see the benefits, I see the potential for abuse as well. I think it’ll be abused before it’s used for Splendor.
August 1, 2011 — 6:50 pm
Greg Swann says:
> I fear it’ll be forced on me by Big Mother.
Your problem is with Big Mother. I can disintermediate a lot of the beehotches, and I can make the remainder smile, smile, smile. But until the rest of the y’all go Tea Party in ever bigger, ever better ways, you’re going to be smothered under the vast teats of coercive infantilization.
> I don’t know if you saw this in today’s WSJ
I give the work a C-. Much better to do it the way I said: Build all the profiles in advance, Zillow-style, then match them up against real-time data. The scores would have doubled, at least, but I’m liking something less than one percent as an acceptable failure rate, given enough known source data and enough real-time samples. Take note that once I have a verified match, I will be accumulating countless new known source images.
> I think it’ll be abused before it’s used for Splendor.
Here’s good news:
1. It won’t happen at all, not like this.
2. Even if the Feds do something like this — directly or with Rotarian Socialist proxy “partners” — it will be lame and useless, just another jobs program for reliable voters. If you’re not working for money, you’re the DMV.
I have more disruptive technology ideas, and the state of technology right now is hugely disruptive. I’ll write more in this neighborhood, because I want to show how much can be done, just by changing the way we think. This spending cap fiasco could not make it any more plain that the way we are trying to do things now does not work. My goal is to show you how to achieve the objectives people insist they can’t live without — without our having to go at each other’s throats all the time.
August 1, 2011 — 10:39 pm
Brian Brady says:
“But it is my hope that once people discover that we don’t need a police state in order to be safe from the bogey man, they might take the next step and disintermediate the State”
The State is the real bogeyman in this proposal. The big question is will this private concern, resist the “National Security Letter”, presented by a bored agent, looking to fill his summons’ quota?
August 1, 2011 — 8:10 pm
Greg Swann says:
> The big question is will this private concern, resist the “National Security Letter”, presented by a bored agent, looking to fill his summons’ quota?
That will make for entertaining TV. 😉
August 1, 2011 — 8:42 pm
Elizabeth Evans says:
Here’s a real life example of how this works…..
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/08/02/BALC1KI1OF.DTL
I don’t care for the big brother aspect, because I spent many years working for government and I know how inept, stupid and corrupt it is. I would rather see people on the street calling the cops and tackling the thief, but no one wants to take a risk and get involved any longer. Anomymous surveillance substitutes for personal responsiblity for one’s community.
The FICO people are now producing Medication Adherence Scores, their estimate of how likely you are to buy and take your prescribed medications. They swear up and down it’s a tool for doctors, but what will happen when your insurance company includes that in their assessment of the risk you present?
Here’s the link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-medical-FICO-score-sparks-creditcards-1400615100.html?x=0
What I find most disturbing overall is the belief of the younger set that everything you do is public and it shouldn’t matter. The Facebook generation values exposure and the status exposure can bring over privacy. Even the best of the science fiction writers could not imagine this insidious (r)evolution.
August 2, 2011 — 6:00 am
Greg Swann says:
> They swear up and down it’s a tool for doctors, but what will happen when your insurance company includes that in their assessment of the risk you present?
When that happens, risk will be associated with the individual and not with the collective pool. What that means is that rates will go down for people who present fewer risks of loss to the insurer, up for those who present more risks. That’s justice. I’m for it.
Lenders: I’ve mentioned this in passing before, but think of what you could do with your default-prediction models if you worked from deep database mining and not just the limited FICO profile.
> What I find most disturbing overall is the belief of the younger set that everything you do is public and it shouldn’t matter.
I’m 51. I have been actively disconcealing the significant facts of my life since 1995. It’s not a vanity — I think Facebook is a waste of time — it’s self-defense.
> I spent many years working for government and I know how inept, stupid and corrupt it is.
Think about using face-recognition software instead of the stolid TSA at the airport. It’s not a matter of searching for known bad guys. Instead, you would simply assign a probable risk to everyone you could identify. The higher probabilities and the unknowns are the people you need to worry about. Everyone else is just there, that’s all.
There are so many jobs now being screwed up by government that could actually be accomplished, if they were being done for profit…
August 2, 2011 — 8:04 am
Brian Brady says:
BUMPER STICKER: “If you’re not working for money, you’re the DMV.”
“That will make for entertaining TV”
Light bulb on. The “anti-cops” COPS
August 2, 2011 — 9:35 am
Greg Swann says:
>> “That will make for entertaining TV”
> Light bulb on. The “anti-cops” COPS
Innocent people died in Tiananmen Square. But so did the Soviet Union. That footage, which you might see three or four times a year, sapped the Commissars of their will to kill.
Honest people have no fear of the truth, but dishonest people dread exposure. If you want to rid the world of cockroaches, throw on the lights.
August 2, 2011 — 10:41 am
Teri Lussier says:
>Your problem is with Big Mother.
Yes.
>But until the rest of the y’all go Tea Party in ever bigger, ever better ways, you’re going to be smothered under the vast teats of coercive infantilization.
Who is the rest of y’all? You are not among us? Does Big Mother not whip you with the same ferocity that she whips anyone? Pardon if this tangents here but I don’t understand if you are saying that you don’t feel the whip or you don’t get the whip.
August 2, 2011 — 1:56 pm
Greg Swann says:
> Who is the rest of y’all? You are not among us?
I’m dancing as fast as I can, Teri. I don’t care much about evangelism, but I am good at making arguments that people can’t refute and yet can’t eradicate from their minds. It’s posts like this one that will make the difference, going forward, as much difference as I can make. I’m training people to think libertarian. They could do me the big favor of broadcasting my ideas, for a start, but the only behavior I can control is my own.
Repeating that for the benefit of inlookers: If you do nothing else to rid your life of the pestilence of the state, promoting my memes to everyone you know could make a huge difference for you and them and everyone over time. I think I am the most original political philosopher in the history of human thought, but, wherever I stand in the historical queue, I am the most original philosophical thinker anyone here has ever met. I am amused by my obscurity and poverty, but it’s not so funny to think how many lives my ideas could be saving and improving, if they were more widespread.
So: I think I’m doing my part and then some.
August 2, 2011 — 2:35 pm
Greg Swann says:
>> Your problem is with Big Mother.
> Yes.
I just solved it. It’s publishing. The Feds might try to horn in on it, but they won’t be able to suppress it.
One of the ideas I had thought of — but didn’t share with you because I knew it would creep you out even worse — is, to give it a name, LifeSharing. BMOCs like Robert Scoble or Cowboy Slim could make some or all of their own personal, outward-looking video feed available as live streaming video. There is some guy who is already doing this, but what I’m talking about is ad-supported content that pays the BMOC big moolah. (Editors and curators can make money, too.)
Imagine LifeSharing Charlie Sheen or Lady Gaga.
Now imagine live-streaming that video on the fabric of your jacket at a beach party… Oh, wait, that really does want new theory. It’ll come eventually, though, and I have a plan for getting infinite video content onto infinite video surfaces.
But, meanwhile, the act of capturing and disseminating the video itself is publishing, protected by the one line in our Constitution the statists are not (not yet, anyway) prepared to affect to erase.
That puts Brian Brady right where we want him, as the jovial, good-natured host of America’s Funniest Functionaries And Their Freakish Foul-Ups. This is what James O’Keefe is doing one-off right now. I can give you everything, all the time, until Brian has nothing left to show on TV but temper tantrums and pratfalls.
This works, all of it. Trillions of dollars in profits, true safety among other people and a huge pruning of the state and its costs. There is no objection to this idea that is both possible and unjust.
August 2, 2011 — 6:42 pm
Teri Lussier says:
>I’m dancing as fast as I can, Teri.
I understand that. I wasn’t accusing you of something, just wondering if you didn’t feel under the thumb, you know? Sometimes it’s just crushing to me, I choke on it. Maybe you have the recipe for secret sauce that makes the crap sandwich more palatable… Anyway.
>So: I think I’m doing my part and then some.
Especially “and then some”. 😉
As for me? You can ask that, Greg, it’s a fair question. I’m often tongue-tied by political talk so while I’ve thought my thoughts for years and years expressing them isn’t as easy so I’m taking a more Johnny Appleseed approach, I suppose. I’m a mom, I start there. Bloom where you are planted…
August 2, 2011 — 4:37 pm
Greg Swann says:
> just wondering if you didn’t feel under the thumb, you know?
No. I don’t let other people into my life, except by my choice. I never have. Government functionaries are criminals who bathe. My feelings for them run from mirth to pity, never fear or dread and only very rarely respect. Here’s what I mean by the words cultivate indifference: I don’t care if you kill me, I will never kiss your ass.
Exuberance and indomitability and staging a graceful exit. If you read just about anything I’ve written with your antennae tuned to the idea of sovereignty, you’ll see it everywhere.
August 2, 2011 — 5:21 pm
Brian Brady says:
“Now imagine live-streaming that video on the fabric of your jacket at a beach party”
As in, you’re wearing a shirt of Charlie Sheen (live) at a beach party? I never took you for a fashionista but I like it, Greg.
“That puts Brian Brady right where we want him, as the jovial, good-natured host of America’s Funniest Functionaries And Their Freakish Foul-Ups.”
Judge Napolitano’s hosting that show already, for 3-5 minutes each night (Freedom Files) but the idea is scalable…and interesting…and marketable. This thing’s getting legs, now.
I hope you revisit the 50,000 channel television set post again, soon. I know you ain’t done taking about this idea.
August 2, 2011 — 10:20 pm
Greg Swann says:
>> “Now imagine live-streaming that video on the fabric of your jacket at a beach party”
> As in, you’re wearing a shirt of Charlie Sheen (live) at a beach party? I never took you for a fashionista but I like it, Greg.
Your shirt or jacket or slacks or whatever would be broadcasting everything that Charlie Sheen is seeing, from his point of view. Or you could “follow” someone who is out with Sheen, and then he would be all over you.
I started writing about video fabric in 1984. Back then, it was just science fiction to me, but I knew it would come.
I wrote about it here, in a discussion of a business programming content to big-screen HDTVs:
Here’s more from an email to Teri:
I have a high-end real estate project in development, so I’m seeing photos from a lot of million-dollar homes. Having ten or twelve flat panel TVs around the house is now fairly common at that price-point.
Here’s a horizontal market upsell that Cathleen came up with last night: Sight-seeing/tourist destinations. Can’t get to Vegas. Vegas can come to you. Having a Hawaiian themed party? Put Hawaii on the walls. Times Square for New Year’s Eve — without being in Times Square for New Year’s Eve.
All of this stuff will happen in some form, but there is no limit to how cool it can be.
August 3, 2011 — 6:59 am
Teri Lussier says:
>LifeSharing
Or LifeStreaming.
I thought of that email, too.
So… We could get live feeds of the feds and no secrets, no bull, just CSPAN Behind the Doors, all the time, wherever, and this would be paid for by advertising? Okay. This doesn’t creep me out as much as you might think. I don’t really like it, but that’s a personal thing- sensory overload- not for any ethical, moral, or political reasons.
And I keep reminding myself that once upon a time our society didn’t really allow for secrets and privacy. I’m guessing tribal culture depended on open lives for its survival.
War… YOu couldn’t really have a war, could you? What is happening in Somalia? What is happening in Palestine? How does Kim Jong Il spend his free time? Where are all the bodies buried? Are there WMD? Now we know.
August 3, 2011 — 7:47 am
Greg Swann says:
>> LifeSharing
> Or LifeStreaming.
I thought of that neologism on the canal this morning.
We are now at the TwitBook killer: Why wait to read what Cowboy Slim had for lunch when you can watch the food hurtling toward his mouth?
> So… We could get live feeds of the feds and no secrets, no bull, just CSPAN Behind the Doors, all the time, wherever, and this would be paid for by advertising?
Paid by advertising, by vertical market upsells, by reselling interpolated data, etc. The B2B information business is about reducing uncertainty. This can do a lot of that.
> War… YOu couldn’t really have a war, could you? What is happening in Somalia? What is happening in Palestine? How does Kim Jong Il spend his free time? Where are all the bodies buried? Are there WMD? Now we know.
Won’t work where there are no video cameras, or where some thug controls what you can see. But the more cameras there are, at the margins, the harder it is to get away with being a thug.
August 3, 2011 — 3:21 pm
Jim Klein says:
“There is no objection to this idea that is both possible and unjust.”
Ha…that’s a perfect summation of a phenomenal essay and comment thread. I’ve known this for many years, and your essay is (unsurprisingly) spot-on. As you note, the underlying problem is ontological—we can yap about “right to privacy” till we’re blue in the face; it’s a simple identification that we don’t have privacy any more. People should live with it. People should LIVE with it.
The problem never was not having privacy…it’s what others can do because we don’t have the privacy. Owing to the indomitable nature of volitional creatures, the only threat anyway was the physical coercion that could be brought to bear because of the information. It’s no sweat if I know you built a pole barn at your place, but it’s a big problem if that makes more of your earnings open to confiscation, not to mention that others will decide what you may do with it.
Socially speaking, there are no problems in the human realm except thugs. In our fear of street thugs who are nothing but gnats, we have devised a Leviathan of Thuggery that becomes more insurmountable by the day. It can lead to nothing but the death of us all, if only from the lack of production that it chokes out of our society. This has been logically obvious for centuries; we are in the middle of the practical manifestation right now.
The Thugs have made it very clear, in no uncertain terms, that they plan on remaining thugs. Meanwhile, the non-thugs mostly seem to have no idea that they are literally in a fight for their lives. Unless they wake up, and quickly, logic says we all die, or at least suffer horribly, until there’s nobody left except those who are willing to live with their minds, which means as humans. Because of the nature of this battlefield–that is, the nature of the participants–it doesn’t seem likely at all that non-thugs will be able to live peaceably among the thugs. Thugs won’t go hungry while non-thugs have something to eat. Ask a Ukranian.
I try not to be pessimistic, but logic always holds. It seems that there is no way out except a wide awakening to the facts of the matter, and the understanding that decency can–and must–rule over indecency. Meanwhile, our schools are busy teaching that there’s no such thing as facts in the first place and even if there were, we don’t have the ability to be decent anyway. This is nearly definitional, as your decency is determined by how well you serve others. If you understand, let alone declare, that your own life is the glorious value for which you live…well, that’s considered about as indecent as anything could be.
Damn, it’s a mess. Rand (and Swann, of course!) were right about at least one thing…until we come to understand that our own lives are the highest value for which we live–until we come to LOVE those lives, and adore the ego around which they’re built–we simply don’t have a shot. There must be a zillion species on the Endangered Species List, yet somehow the idiots left the most important one off.
August 3, 2011 — 8:04 am
Greg Swann says:
I’m so glad to see you, Jim. I was afraid we were going to have this party without you.
Obviously, we’re on the same page as regards self-adoration, but I deliberately left ethics and most of politics out of this essay. For human beings to live together successfully in peace, all we actually need to do is to eliminate the friction on what we might call the ontologically-consequent incentives to good behavior at the same time we do away with the drag on disincentives to bad behavior.
We don’t need to evangelize Splendor, we just need to help our brothermen see the full bodily, pecuniary and spiritual benefits of acting appropriately with respect to other people, along with the true costs of failing to do so. From there they can find Splendor on their own, if they wish, but all I actually need from them is to persuade them to stop trying to impede my own pursuit of Splendor.
But: If the objective is to slay the giant — or even to bell the cat — we’re done before we’ve begun. But if we can take on the leviathan at the margins, we can supplant it before it even knows it has been made irrelevant.
That, ultimately, is where I’m headed with the technology discussed in this essay and in the comments.
There’s more: For the first time, I don’t feel complete despair for the Tea Party. I’ve said all along that the first step to slaying Big Brother would consist of reversing our direction — away from larger government and toward smaller government. I don’t believe that truly happened this week, but this is the emerging perception, and all the Tea Partiers have to do is build on that perception to gain some momentum.
As I argued last fall, after the election, the Tea Party can’t cut taxes or spending, so the one thing it can do to help repair this economy is to cut regulation. The technology discussed in this essay is, ultimately, a fourth approach: The new businesses spun off from these ideas are the new wealth production you’ve been looking for, at the same time that they will reduce the costs of government, going forward.
And that’s the beauty of doing this as a free-market product: It creates its own “converts.” As people come to recognize the benefits VritualOmniscience.com (I own the domain), they will come to see the world our way as a serendipitous side-effect.
I spent two weeks thinking about that essay and six hours Sunday writing it. I think I got a good return on my investment. 😉
As always, as ever, never doubt my gratitude to you, sir, for being so wide awake.
August 3, 2011 — 4:09 pm
Brian Brady says:
“This is something I would pay for, and I hate everything.”
Okay, now I’m REALLY interested. Let me be too predictable but I can see a practical application for real estate agents; the name tag.
Imagine a 4″ X 4″, that doesn’t really have your name on it. It’s a slide show, displaying pictures of your favorite listings, with every third slide displaying your name. THIS…is the conversation piece at networking meetings, the grocery store, and the gym.
August 3, 2011 — 2:49 pm
Greg Swann says:
> Imagine a 4″ X 4″, that doesn’t really have your name on it. It’s a slide show, displaying pictures of your favorite listings, with every third slide displaying your name. THIS…is the conversation piece at networking meetings, the grocery store, and the gym.
That’s a start-up — and not just for the real estate vertical. Somebody get this man some angel funding.
The technology already exists in the form of digital picture frames. All you’ll need to do is repurpose and repackage. Even Bill Gates could do it. 😉
August 3, 2011 — 3:15 pm
Chris Dates says:
Hey Greg,
Jim Klein turned me on to your site, and I have really enjoyed your writing.
You said-” I have big-dollar horizontal and vertical market ideas growing out my ears.”
Thinking like a free human sure is fun isn’t it? I have some ideas of my own. Now, if we can just persuade people to stop throwing rocks in our backpacks we would be OK.
I’ll be reading, and sharing!
August 3, 2011 — 4:04 pm
Greg Swann says:
> I’ll be reading, and sharing!
Bless you, sir. Thank you. Very nice to “meet” you.
August 3, 2011 — 4:11 pm
Teri Lussier says:
>Won’t work where there are no video cameras, or where some thug controls what you can see. But the more cameras there are, at the margins, the harder it is to get away with being a thug.
We have those little flying bugs from the mighty air force.
>> Imagine a 4″ X 4″, that doesn’t really have your name on it. It’s a slide show, displaying pictures of your favorite listings, with every third slide displaying your name. THIS…is the conversation piece at networking meetings, the grocery store, and the gym.
And it’s also a little camera taking a photo of anyone who chats you up, doing some face recognition and sending their info to your phone so you can have more data ready to send back to the chatter with a push of a button? Lawz, that’s creepy… Gonna have to sleep on that one…
August 3, 2011 — 8:20 pm
Brian Brady says:
“Lawz, that’s creepy”
I prefer efficient rather than creepy. Let’s think about what we do when someone chats us up. We take their card, sneak away to the bathroom, jot down notes to call them, plan the call (maybe Google them to see who they are, what they like, where they went to school, etc), then weave our new found knowledge into the next conversation, to build rapport.
Is that creepy or just good preparation? When I do that preparation, the calls go smoothly and people seem delighted by my interest. People are voluntarily offering up details of their lives to promote efficiency. Call it another form of niche marketing; seeking people with whom we would predicatively click.
Here’s the part I like; it’s all voluntary, Teri. We’re not acting on information that isn’t (a) voluntarily submitted or (b) in the public domain.
If I were to meet you, and later learn that you sold a home to a guy who describes himself as “I’m loud, I look funny, and I know how to motivate.”. I’d immediately think “Oh, Dr. Dewitt is totally me. Teri and I are going to hit it off.” I’d much prefer to have that information waiting for me, in my CRM rather than having to do the clicks I just did.
“Gonna have to sleep on that one”
Don’t just sleep. Dream. The possibilities are vast. You are already driving on this Autobahn, at 65 mph, while your competition is doing 25 mph. Greg’s idea gives us a much faster vehicle.
August 3, 2011 — 8:57 pm
Greg Swann says:
> Let’s think about what we do when someone chats us up.
Back up a little.
An email comes in over the transom. The spambot says it’s not spam and the sender is not already in your CRM database, so let’s extract as much information as we can from the email. With a name and an email address we can probably get the sender’s full contact information, and possibly a whole lot more.
Make that first contact a phone call instead. Caller ID is lame, but Google is not. From the phone number, can you get back to a name? A location? From those, can we effect the same kind of searches discussed above?
There’s more: Once your CRM knows a name, it should be watching for any changes in publicly-available databases that should be reflected in your private CRM database. That is to say, your CRM should be maintaining itself. It should be booking every appointment it can discern, too. You can follow up to swap thing around on your calendar.
Plus which, every email and phone contact you have with anyone in your CRM should be reflected in your database.
And, obviously, you can add or edit any information you want. My thinking is that the CRM should feel itself free to edit any record or field it has originated, but should check with you before changing any of your own self-initiated work-product. And, of course, you will have to resolve any ambiguities in the data the CRM software unearths in the cloud. (That’s a fun image, don’t you think?)
I call this software Heidi — High-D. I still don’t have a decent CRM solution because I cannot being myself to do hours and hours of scut-work to build the database*. I’m a D, not a C, and Heidi will be more than up to the task of keeping my contacts up to date without my having to do much data entry or maintenance.
This is what computers are for, by the way. 😉
*Feed Heidi your entire email database, what you have of your phone calls and all of your existing failed contact databases and let her build your first-strike CRM DB on her own. Scan all your business cards and other scraps of crap and let her gnaw on those, too. Doesn’t matter if the information you have is obsolete. Heidi scrubs data wherever it comes from, and the people you are cataloging, for the most part, want to be found. Everything described in this comment is well-understod software-engineering, no new theory require.
August 4, 2011 — 9:22 am
Brian Brady says:
Heidi.
Wow! I once remarked to you that Facebook was the perfect CRM and you mentioned that there were too many “CRMs”, which didn’t integrate. Heidi solves that.
Imagine this. You log in and three database alerts tell you that:
(a) Bill’s Facebook wife is complaining that they have no room since the third child came along.
(b) Susan’s Facebook status said that she just accepted a job in Boston (it also tells you that she tweeted ‘breaking up is hard to do’, the day before)
(c) Some recent IDX registrant was identified as the guy who tweeted “phoenix real estate prices are sick!” and that he goes by the username of TeaPartyMan1607, residing in Bakersfield.
Do you think you just identified four transactions?
August 4, 2011 — 10:36 am
Jim Klein says:
I’m vibing that there are two different issues here…or is it two different businesses? The latter part of the thread seems to be about ideal or omniscient databases, particularly from a CRM perspective. Nothing new there and I’m pretty sure the biggest tech money has been chasing that rainbow for a while. Though personally, I was smitten with the “7th Level” analysis from that tech magazine…seems obvious that if you can do it from the customer’s perspective, that’s even better than doing it for a seller.
Your post about privacy is about something else altogether IMO, far wider than mere CRM. The advantage, the value, is from the customer’s perspective, meaning just the individual as he lives. But like fax machines, the value isn’t there until it’s ubiquitous…positive externality, I think it’s called.
The main problem is that there’s some value in even two fax machines, so something can get it going. Here, there’s no value except to those seers who might understand what it’s about. Those particular seers sharing their lives is no advantage to a disinterested potential customer; he’s got to see the advantage of having his life on show in the cloud. You can counter about the inherent advantage even a single person has from having all of his interactions recorded, but business-wise I don’t think that’s right. In this world, the fact of non-privacy notwithstanding, it’s still very much a disvalue for most people to share anything with strangers, much less share everything. IOW, I’m skeptical that there’s any value to Joe Doe /except/ the positive externalities, and you can’t build a business on externalities alone; there has to be current tangible value. You and I are accustomed to every drop of our lives being on the record one way or another, but that remains a very scary thing to most people. That’s why I always get back to, “It’s not the information that’s dangerous to you; it’s what others can do with it.” That’s a tough nut to crack in a nearly full-statist society trying its hardest to become even more statist.
I’ll wait for your response to my EMail, but it may be a value that only a crazed idealist could love…not only are those in short supply, they tend to be broke!
OTOH, I may misunderstand the whole thing; it wouldn’t be the first time. [Did you know not everyone understands you?] In philosophical terms, only ego-adorationists are fully comfortable sharing their lives and even then, there’s some question of the value without the externalities. Am I even on-topic?
August 4, 2011 — 11:12 am
Greg Swann says:
No time now. But: Everyone will happily accept a free security camera to protect their homes, and most parents will be delighted to put a camera on their children. Penetration to the rest of the marketplace will be easy from there. It doesn’t have to be omni-present to work, just so common that no bad guy will ever know when he is or is not being recorded.
We’re discussing a lot of businesses, but there are three inflection points: Database mining for dollars, potentially-ubiquitous video, and database mining and image interpretation originating from and maximizing that video.
What people will and won’t do depends on their incentives. If you assume that people will pay poker for money the same way they play for play-money, you’re making a mistake. Most of what people say they will and won’t do, in the absence of actual rewards and penalties, is simply white noise. If you want to know what they’ll do, you have to run a true test, with real consequence, not a thought experiment. Or an opinion poll. Or an election.
In short: Everything I’m talking about will work the way I am describing it in the long run. In the short run, it rolls out a product at a time, with Heidi being a good place to start.
> I’m pretty sure the biggest tech money has been chasing that rainbow for a while.
Who? There is nothing that I have described today that is even remotely difficult or costly. Where is it in the marketplace?
August 4, 2011 — 11:57 am
Cathleen Collins says:
I want Heidi. I WANT HEIDI!!! OMG, that would make my life so much more efficient. Wonderful ideas, Greg and Brian! We know the technology exists. I already have my contacts’ photos in my iMac Address Book and on my iPhone updating themselves to whatever photo my Friends have designated as their Facebook Profile Picture.
I don’t believe people will resist change as much as they say they will. Only fifteen years ago, many people I knew said they would never have a cell phone because they didn’t want to be slaves to their telephones.
August 4, 2011 — 1:00 pm
Al Lorenz says:
Sorry to be joining late. The first thing this got me thinking of is the evolution of “invisibility” to cameras. It could also be considered biological evolution in this example: http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=138791
August 4, 2011 — 1:05 pm
Greg Swann says:
> A camera is just not impossible to fool. In the future, it will be even easier.
What you are talking about is not invisibility but camouflage. How do these strategies hold up against infrared or sonic imaging? An object cannot be both physically real and undetectable.
A. Even stipulating these stunts, nothing is done absent a reckoning of costs to benefits.
B. Anyone who does something like this has revealed a very important fact about his life: He is not to be trusted.
Nothing outside the mind is perfect. What I am proposing is more perfect than the dispute-resolution system you have in place now, by a factor of about 99 to 1. If you cling to the penny and let the rest of the dollar go — your political representatives are sure to love you! 😉
August 4, 2011 — 4:11 pm
Jim Klein says:
I’m pretty sure the value will in figuring out what to mine, not in the mining itself or even the creation of the mines. You yourself noted in the ’90s that the value of information was approaching zero; hence there should nothing particularly special about advanced ways of getting it and organizing it.
Figuring out what to sort and actually sorting through it–for real people living real lives–that’s where the value will be. The best doctors and the best mechanics all have the same skill…they are extraordinary diagnosticians. No doubt it will be the same for information handlers.
August 4, 2011 — 7:48 pm
Teri Lussier says:
>The best doctors and the best mechanics all have the same skill…they are extraordinary diagnosticians.
I don’t think this is what you were talking about Jim, but to use facial recognition to pull up a patients med history in the office or for emergencies if a patient can’t speak for themselves, and for the patient to pull up their own med history. That would be mind-blowingly useful.
August 4, 2011 — 9:19 pm
Cathleen Collins says:
Doing it already — except using hand recognition — at New York University’s Langone Medical Center!
August 5, 2011 — 10:53 am
Tony says:
If anybody is afraid of “Big Brother is watching us”, just wait a few years…Anybody will have access to any information available about anybody else. Think about it… cameras everywhere recording 24/7, all our records on the internet, our smartphones “phoning home” with our exact location, and this is just the beginning…
August 5, 2011 — 2:41 pm
Brent says:
I disagree with your conclusion that they would stop rapping because they might get caught, in fact I think your conclusion that you would be able to modify their behavior in this way contradicts earlier points that you had made in this article. While I appreciate your time given thinking about this subject,I also have thought upon this subject and have come to a very different conclusion. People must be responsible for their own protection because the human race is filled with wolves and wolves in sheep’s clothing and every time we hand the responsibility of safe guarding our bodies to another you create an opportunity for others to exploit that situation, police come late,cameras fail,courts fail to convict. So the best answer to this is for people to be allowed by law to arm and defend themselves using their own judgment to determine what that means. At this point it will matter not what a criminal determines to do because the victim will have the ability to stop it. No system is perfect but this one works best.
August 9, 2011 — 6:37 pm
Jim Klein says:
Good thoughts, Brent, but I think maybe you miss the motivating factor for people’s decisions. I mean, your overall conclusion is spot-on—“People must be responsible for their own protection.” That’s an obvious fact; people ARE responsible for their own protection.
You write, “So the best answer to this is for people to be allowed by law to arm and defend themselves…” Well, we’ve already got that. The highest LAW of the land says that we may keep and bear arms and that this right shall not be infringed. Interestingly, you yourself point out why this hasn’t worked out so well—politicians can be wolves in sheep’s clothing too. You’ll never get around that problem because laws are only words, and words don’t stop bullets.
Far wiser IMO to understand the actual mechanisms that cause people to do what they do, including the wolves. This is Greg’s specialty and the point here is that with full and open information, there will be an attendant inability for a person to pretend–to others OR himself–that he didn’t do what he did. This is monumental, especially the inability to fool himself, since ultimately that’s what all monsters are doing with their own minds in the first place.
Any way you cut it, it brings the knowledge of human action closer to the perceptual level which, considering the sad state of our conceptual level currently, is exactly what’s needed.
August 10, 2011 — 6:56 am
Jim Klein says:
As if we needed any, here’s some proof that Greg is onto something:
http://cherylkicksass.blogspot.com/2011/08/public-outcry-grows-over-fullerton.html
August 10, 2011 — 11:13 am
Greg Swann says:
Here is the power of James O’Keefe-style video in action. But who will guard the guards themselves?, Juvenal asks. How about everybody? Per me: Worse than death, they fear exposure.
August 11, 2011 — 1:50 pm
Paul Bonneau says:
Interesting article. I can go along with it pretty far, but there seem to be some flaws here.
First, you assume people want to control others. Those in the legislature tend to present this symptom, but a guy who sticks a gun in your face and demands your wallet doesn’t care. He just wants your wallet, and gets it. And there is also the issue of speeding laws – are they designed to decrease traffic speeds and reduce deaths, or are they designed to increase revenue? They are actually pretty good at the latter. So you may be going overboard to state that “It cannot work” to push people around. It actually does work pretty well, which is why so many people keep doing it. Yeah, in your heart of hearts (or mind of minds) they can’t “convert” you to their way of thinking if you decide to resist, but few people other than totalitarian dictators have such an aim.
The second point that strikes me about this article is the exaggerated fear of crime, compared to utter lack of concern for, or even enthusiasm for, loss of privacy. There are already ways of dealing with crime, methods from sticking a gun in that sweet young thing’s purse, to avoiding bad parts of town, to making friends who can back you up, to wearing clothes that are not so sexy. Is crime really that much of a problem, that these methods don’t work? Do we really need some high-tech free-market department of pre-crime? Yes, one could set up surveillance and direct the recording to a privately-controlled computer (which I would have less problem with), but I really don’t want to see cameras on every lamp post, as in England. I know it is theoretically possible and even so without coercion, but I’m hoping the human race won’t *want* to go there because they value privacy more than you appear to do. I don’t want to live in a fish bowl and I think it would be bad for our psyches if we did. We will be diminished if we do.
http://www.speedcam.co.uk/gatso2.htm
I don’t even think it is healthy for parents to be monitoring their children too closely. In fact it is pretty creepy to me.
The Stasi would have loved your setup; they attempted to record everything about everybody. And you think they could not manipulate it to their advantage? Seems very naive to me. A government does not have to follow the rules about evidence – they are the government. Besides, there are a lot of things against the law that shouldn’t be. Do you really want them seeing you buying that ounce of pot in the back alley? If it’s out there on the “cloud”, you can assume they have access to it.
When was this country most free? Back in the 1830’s or so, when people could move out west where there was no government, and test themselves against the wild world and leave behind the mistakes they had made earlier in their life. Yeah it was dangerous, but humans are most human when we are tested that way, when courage means something, when we have to live by our wits. I sure don’t want to live in a cocoon all my life, and I don’t want my children doing that either.
August 10, 2011 — 12:36 pm
Jim Klein says:
“I’m hoping the human race won’t *want* to go there because they value privacy more than you appear to do.”
An unachievable value is an irrational value. We DON’T have privacy and obviously WON’T have it, arguments like this notwithstanding.
“A government does not have to follow the rules about evidence – they are the government. Besides, there are a lot of things against the law that shouldn’t be.”
True enough, which is why I keep harping that the issue isn’t about the availability of the information, but rather about what others can do to you because of the information. Eliminate the laws and their enforcement…
http://zerogov.com/?p=2194
…and suddenly it’s no problem who knows about that bag of pot.
“When was this country most free? Back in the 1830′s or so, when people could move out west where there was no government, and test themselves against the wild world…”
Good point. Notice that in that environment of small communities, nearly everyone’s life was an open book. Q.E.D.
August 10, 2011 — 8:38 pm
Teri Lussier says:
>Notice that in that environment of small communities, nearly everyone’s life was an open book.
Jim, I had considered that as well. Tribal cultures also, I don’t see how they could have survived if individuals had insisted on privacy, but still, there had to have been some respect for individual needs and personality differences.
That and a tiny seed planted yesterday, took root overnight.
The seed: http://mashable.com/2011/08/11/manchester-police-twitter/
My concern with privacy has always been that I’m going lose it and once lost you can’t get it back and what if I want it someday? Okay. Stubbornness only gets me so far, eventually I have to think 😉 So this morning… Epiphany! I might be the last one in the room to see it but… well, privacy doesn’t really exist, does it?
August 12, 2011 — 5:55 am
Teri Lussier says:
I mean to say that I can’t lose something I never had in the first place.
August 12, 2011 — 5:57 am
Jim Klein says:
“…but still, there had to have been some respect for individual needs and personality differences.”
To me, that’s the whole point Teri. What do I care how you earn your money or how much you make? Or which movies you watch or what music you like or what God you pray to…or anything? Everyone’s different and we should get over it already. That’s something to rejoice about, not bemoan.
“…well, privacy doesn’t really exist, does it?”
That’s why it’s ontological, not ethical. Anyone could have the greatest arguments in the world why our lives should be private, but arguments don’t trump reality. It would be nice to flaps our arms and fly to Hawaii, but so what?
August 12, 2011 — 6:06 am
Teri Lussier says:
So all these contortions we go through to hang on to something that doesn’t exist, meanwhile we live with this irrational fear of having the non-existent taken away. Oh man oh man. I LOVE it when the obvious becomes obvious. That’s some freedom!!!! 🙂
August 12, 2011 — 6:17 am
Greg Swann says:
Still more: In-car insurance-company “spying” creeps journalist out — and why the heck don’t they spy on the drivers I don’t like! Yeesh…
August 13, 2011 — 9:40 am