Catherine Reagor in the Arizona Republic runs down all the bad news, but there is a better lens for interpreting this information. Take note of M. Anthony Carr in Realty Times:
Buyers scurry, afraid of buying at the height of the market.
So why aren’t builders running scared? Because the underlying principles of a good market remain sound in the midst of the market fears. While nationally, the industry has cooled to “more sustainable levels,” according to the National Association of Home Builders, “The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports strong job gains in many of the fastest-growing states, with 37 states exceeding their pre-recession peak levels of employment in 2005.”
The group recently released a mid-year housing report on its real estate trends website, HousingEconomics.com. A cooling of the market this year will still result in the third highest level of housing starts in the last few years.
That’s why you keep seeing building projects going up. Definitely, not as many houses are being constructed in 2006 as last year, but the NAHB report points to several positive market growth indicators in various regions across the country.
Job growth is continuing upward. Unemployment is dropping. Businesses continue to expand and economists across the country continue to estimate that the need for more housing will stretch beyond the current inventory surplus.
The National Association of Realtors still is holding to 2006 being another very strong year — the third highest on record. NAHB members are still bull on the housing market. What we’re seeing in ’06, it seems, is a transition year. For buyers who have no choice but to buy because of social or lifestyle reasons (birth of new baby, marriage, retirement, in-laws moving in, new job, relocation, etc.) they will buy now and unwittingly pick up a great deal.
For buyers who are too skittish about the market, they will miss a financial boosting opportunity. In markets where it has normalized (D.C., Miami, Chicago, Phoenix) buyers who buy based on rock-hard solid economic evidence, will be excited in a few years that they bought a house low and now stand to earn a handsome profit a few years later.
A devastating argument. Read the whole thing.
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