Technology “expert” Clifford Stoll precisely 15 years ago in Newsweek:
After two decades online, I’m perplexed. It’s not that I haven’t had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I’ve met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I’m uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community. Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.
Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.
Consider today’s online world. The Usenet, a worldwide bulletin board, allows anyone to post messages across the nation. Your word gets out, leapfrogging editors and publishers. Every voice can be heard cheaply and instantly. The result? Every voice is heard. The cacophony more closely resembles citizens band radio, complete with handles, harassment, and anonymous threats. When most everyone shouts, few listen. How about electronic publishing? Try reading a book on disc. At best, it’s an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can’t tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we’ll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure.
Wicked stupid, huh? It gets better:
Then there’s cyberbusiness. We’re promised instant catalog shopping—just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obsolete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet—which there isn’t—the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.
It’s interesting to me to note that the predictions Stoll is denouncing were amazingly accurate. This is a clear-cut distinction between “expertise” and vision. My take: Mind what goes into your mind. Most “experts” are dipshits with a pedigree — usually a phony pedigree, at that.
(Just FYI, I fixed all the spelling errors in the text quoted from Stoll’s article.)
Dolores Farmer says:
Wow! What an excellent post; it made me rethink the current “expert” predictions about technology, the economy, and various political issues. It’s so easy to get wrapped up in these proclamations sometimes. Sounds like the *real* expert opinions come from MIT!
March 4, 2010 — 7:14 am
Garrett Bender says:
This is why I have such a hard time listening to the news or reading the paper b/c of goof balls like this. The more of an expert someone is the more full of it they are. This is just one of many examples of how people talk about stuff they really have no clue about.
March 4, 2010 — 11:39 am
Erion Shehaj says:
Excellent Post.
Eeirily familiar to naysayers about social media these days, no?
March 4, 2010 — 12:43 pm
Cheryl Johnson says:
Interesting to note: As far as I can tell, Cliff Stoll has been selling Klien Bottles over the internet since 1996. The bottles are amazing to contemplate, and quite beautiful to look at, too.
http://www.kleinbottle.com/
March 5, 2010 — 6:32 am
Louis Cammarosano says:
“Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet—which there isn’t—the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.”
LOL who are the top sales people at Amazon?
March 5, 2010 — 9:41 pm
Cheryl Johnson says:
This comment by Louis:
“Who are the top sales people at Amazon?”
Does a great job of describing in a few simple words a huge, fundamental shift in how we do business.
March 7, 2010 — 5:13 am