Aug. 24, 2007: Is Phoenix a buyer's market? You bet, but even more than that, it's a Realtor's market
As I write this, there are 55,706 homes listed for sale in the Arizona Regional Multiple Listings Service. Some are anomalous listings, but those would account for far fewer than one percent of the total. Allowing for every possible quibble, there are a lot of homes for sale -- double what there should be.
In July, 4,730 ARMLS-listed homes were sold. Funds changed hands, escrow closed, sellers moved out, buyers moved in -- sold.
That's not a very healthy number of buyers. Five years ago, in July of 2002, 6,113 homes were sold. This is before the market went crazy, so it's a reasonable number for comparison.
So we have about 75% as many buyers as we should have pursuing 200% of the normal quantity of inventory. That's an 11.78 month supply of homes. Another way of saying the same thing: Every buyer in the market right now could have twelve or more candidate homes to choose from.
Not all locations are the same. Some buyers might have two or fewer homes to work with. For example, historic or architect-built homes are always in short supply. If you want to live in a high-demand area, you may have no homes to choose from. On the other hand, in very low-demand subdivisions, buyers may have 30 or more appropriate houses available to them.
Is this a buyer's market? Oh, you bet! But even more than that, I see it as a listing agent's market.
Why? Because for every home listed in the next 30 days, only a very few are going to sell within 30 days of being listed. For every home that comes off the market, at least one will replace it in the MLS. The ones that don't sell immediately could be out there for a long while.
Which homes will sell? Those that are perfectly marketed in every possible respect: Priced right, prepared right, presented right. During the boom, anyone could sell a house. Now -- and for the foreseeable future -- only the very best listing agents are getting the job done.
Greg Swann is the designated broker for BloodhoundRealty.com, a full-service Metropolitan Phoenix real estate brokerage. This article originally appeared in the West Valley regional sections of the Arizona Republic.
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