Dec. 8, 2006: The price downturn in the Phoenix real estate market is less than scary
Here's a question that cannot be far from every homeowner's mind: How low will home prices go?
Despite all the media hype, values haven't gone down very much. For the types of homes of greatest interest to West Valley homeowners, our recent appreciation boom continued through December 2005. Since then, values have gone down only marginally.
What's the damage so far?
For newer, three-bedroom homes, we're down 10.27 percent from the peak. Year over year, prices are down 8.72 percent.
Here's the good news: Looking at two-year results on these homes, values are up 29.37 percent. Over three years, prices are up 59 percent.
(All these figures come from our Market Basket of Homes, which is available online at www.bloodhoundrealty.com/MarketBasket.php.)
But the burning question is, have we found the bottom of the market?
That's a complicated question.
Doomsayers insist that housing prices will plummet or at least undergo a regression to mean appreciation.
What this means is that if West Valley homes "should have" appreciated by 6 percent a year, we will have to give back the gains of recent years, either by a quick drop in values or a long stagnation.
On the other hand, inventories of Market Basket homes are down precipitously from earlier this year. Sales are fairly high, compared with November 2003. Builders are clearing their excess inventory at a rapid clip. With a decent spring selling season, we could be through the worst of this downturn.
However, inventories are still very high. So, if you try to sell now, you will be in fierce competition with other sellers.
It's probably wise to resist the urge to tap that equity in your home. Interest rates are very low, so you might refinance to get a better loan, to eliminate a second mortgage or to reduce higher-interest debt.
It remains to be seen if we're out of the woods. But, so far, the woods haven't been all that scary.
Greg Swann is the designated broker for BloodhoundRealty.com, a full-service Metropolitan Phoenix real estate brokerage. This article originally appeared in the West Valley regional sections of the Arizona Republic.
Spread the word: Click here for a printer-ready version of this column.
Or: Steal this book: I've written over 200 of these real estate columns. They are consistently one of the most popular features on our blogs. Many of them are dated and/or entirely Phoenixocentric. But many others are timeless and generic. If you want to use any of my columns on your weblog or web site, feel free. Three rules: Don't change my text, credit me as the author and give me a link back to http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/ with appropriate anchor text. Something like this, perhaps:
Am I link-baiting? You bet. The quid pro quo is free content for your site that pulls eyeballs and excites interest.<a href="http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/" target="_blank"> Phoenix Realtor Greg Swann</a> suggested I share this with you:
